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Day 3 - The Fall of Woman
Topic Started: Oct 4 2016, 06:13 AM (2,731 Views)
Toto
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A Hole New World
Ahh Porsche, that was a welcome analysis... but maybe I'm a biased geezer since I finally have someone else finding Aphelandra suspicious, oh ho ho! Not that I immediately trust you as a townie. You could be trying to misdirect me, and hell you could be lying about not being silenced too.

Well, I promised to eventually weigh in on the cat weasel fight going on. I think maybe it's easiest to first create a little list of points for and against them, if only for my old disorganized mind.

Inazuma

Pros:

  • Why lie about being silenced when (s)he doesn't have to?
Cons:

  • Guilty cop report
  • Silencer story is hard to swallow. Used randomly on Day 1? Can also be used at night? No subsequent silencings (though this could be intentional)? Plus, no effort was made to be concise and fully informative in the single alleged allowed post
  • Being incredibly defensive. It's okay to want to defend oneself, but it feels excessive. Also, should probably be willing to get lynched in order to disprove a phony cop claim, if Inazuma is indeed innocent
  • Most of his argument is focused on Nero's cop claim making no sense, largely glossing over the "undercover" portion of it, and also trying to force new reports out of him even though there are plenty of reasons to hold back on that for now (too late, though...)

Nero

Pros:

  • Claimed cop without any counter-claims so far, and has a guilty report
  • Seems willing to get lynched regardless, due to undercover condition
  • Why would he make this claim if he were lying?
Cons:

  • Still alive
  • Claimed hastily
  • It bothers me that his reports concretely specify alignment. Cops usually get guilty/not guilty, or mafia/not mafia, or town/not town type of binary reports. But Nero claims he got a green color back. I don't like this. Its closer to a role cop, but even role cops tend to learn only the name of a role, not the actual alignment of the role. Incidentally, role cop is a mafia-aligned power.


I must also point out that for everything frustrating about Funkfreed's style so far, he did make the very astute observation that given Nero's claim, it would not be possible for him to be insane (because there is no opposite of 3rd party). So that is neither a valid fear nor last-minute defense for Nero. Incidentally, I think the suspicion of Funkfreed is overblown. I'm more inclined to think he just has overactive fear/imagination and maybe even confusion about his own role (not that I have any basis for that possibility). Funkfreed, you would do well to organize yourself better and articulate more before posting, instead of making multiple short, in-the-moment posts in a row.

But at any rate, the real question is how to proceed. Standard policy dictates you do not lynch a cop claim. You simply do not. You first lynch his guilty report, and proceed from there. I am entirely unconvinced as to either Inazuma or Nero's innocence or truthfulness, but if we're going to lynch them, we start with Inazuma. There is no good justification not to.

But if Nero is indeed lying, it worries me that he's willing to sacrifice himself. One of the strongest possibilities was mentioned by Johnny:

Johnny
Oct 4 2016, 07:13 PM
There also is the possibility that NERO is a mafia-aligned role-reader type of role, and is setting himself up to look innocent by truthfully calling out Inazuma.

This is the best way to make sense of Nero as a liar; I can't see another good justification. Maybe he is quietly trying to sniff our roles, and landed on a jackpot: a 3rd-party find, which he immediately decided to use to gain the town's trust. Maybe the best course of action would be to lynch Inazuma followed by Nero, regardless of Inazuma's flip! Neither flip actually exonerates the other. But at the very least by then we should have an extra Nero report, which we will eventually know the trustworthiness of.

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Nero
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I AM WEASEL
My pm simply says my reports tell me my target's alignment
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Richie
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Elizabello II
Oct 4 2016, 05:05 PM
Also, not sure about Richie. You seemed a lot more inclined to believe her yesterday than today. What changed?
I actually thought the "Vanilla Town" thing was an actual mistake or abbreviation yesterday.
However, today she answered that this is what she's actually got. I wouldn't count out that mods change the wording of a Role PN/Role, so that we don't easily identify ourselves through it, but only "Town" seems just so weird.
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Toto
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A Hole New World
It is disturbingly quiet, ho...

Merry and Charlotte have yet to post. I'm expecting something of substance before long (especially from Charlotte, given her inactivity Day 2). Same goes for Keimi who never came back after a trivial first post, despite me addressing her directly, and whom I still have an eye on.

Dorry continues to not scum hunt, though in light of everything else I'm not in any rush to jump on that wagon.

Johnny, I liked your post, but do you have a suggested course of action?

Haredas, when you come back, your full input please.

Ohm, anything else to add? Other than not being able to search the word "town" in the filtered list of Aphelandra's posts, much less re-read the day? I'm also still trying to wrap my head around what role you could have possibly been assigned that gave you the information you claim to have.

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Haredas
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Ok question time: What can we learn from Boa's death? Why would the mafia target her of all people, what do they gain?


Toto
Oct 4 2016, 06:41 AM
I am also curious: if we lynched Gan Fall for a color mistake, are we not lynching Aphelandra for claiming her role says she is the entire town? Is there a difference? This is not rhetorical; I am curious on people's thoughts. I think I have made my suspicions plenty clear at this point. Not to mention that as much flak as we gave big ol' Dorry for his vote 180, Aphelandra did something similar, and only re-applied her Gan Fall vote in response to direct scrutiny.

Other than that, I was looking briefly at post counts. We all know Porsche was a no-show (if she wants to claim she silenced, that may lend some more credence to Inazuma). But the next three most inactive posters were Dorry (2 posts), Keimi (3 posts), Charlotte (4 posts), and Richie (5 posts). Of all these borderline-lurkers, only Richie actually laid a vote for Gan Fall. That merits some consideration, methinks.
Since you asked for my opinion, Aphelandra does seem suspicious mainly for not trying to claim she just made a typo about a plausible mistake (messed up and dropped the 'ie') and as previously stated there is suspicions on Dorry for far more than just his voting choices.

Funkfreed
Oct 4 2016, 08:33 AM
Mafia roleblocked me again
If this continues i have nothing in my hand
really?
Funkfreed
Oct 4 2016, 08:44 AM
i dont see any reason not to trust nero for now
And it is obvious why they didnt kill nero last night
Really, really?
Funkfreed
Oct 4 2016, 08:47 AM
Well dont hammer him until last hour
vote lynch inazuma
Ok so Funkfreed assures us that he is a townie and he has some grand plan so we should keep him alive until day 4 but claims he keeps getting role blocked. Also he instantly trusts Nero and jumps on the inazuma wagon.

Funkfreed
Oct 4 2016, 09:06 AM
Inazuma
Oct 4 2016, 08:58 AM
Funkfreed
Oct 4 2016, 08:53 AM
Because if he is lying his flip shows us that he is lying
And then he comes right out and claims an insane cop defense. What do you say to that?
Insane cop usaully doesnt see townies as green they see townies as mafia and mafia as townie so he cant claim that
This I do kinda agree with, if Nero changes his claim to insane cop IMO that is full grounds for a lynch at this point.

Ohm
Oct 4 2016, 09:17 AM
Everybody who voted Dorry : why Dorry ? Why not follow up on the Nero-Ina situation?

As for Alph I have no strong reads on her. I also cannot find her 'town' claim , I might be blind it seems.
possible reasoning: "Inazuma might be third party all by himself, Dorry might be part of the Mafia team -> if we lynch Dorry first the mafia are down a member and will now have lost 2 making it potentially much harder to carry out combos but Inazuma would still be the same threat level and he has not likely killed any of us yet"
My opinion is a Mafia killer/role finder is probably a bigger threat than whatver inazuma might be (we already lynched Gan Fall and he was not the goon)

Aphelandra
Oct 4 2016, 09:35 AM
Doesn't saying 'if Nero survives another night, it's suspicious' pretty much guarantee that Nero makes it to tomorrow? It's asking the Mafia not to kill him tonight so we lynch later.

I misread Toto's sentence, then. I thought he had issue with the statement straight up, not with the wording. It's still what it said, though.

Just so we are clear... you are claiming your PM did not say "Townie" ???

Nero
Oct 4 2016, 06:24 AM
Oh I got a report, but this one Ill keep to myself until I need to.

Nero
Oct 4 2016, 01:48 PM
@Funkfreed- you sir are on thin ice. You have no way of knowing 100% I am telling the truth...even if I am.

Inazuma, I find it really hard to take anything you say seriously and for the town, this is pretty easy. If you lynch me, my claim will be vindicated and Inazuma will be a dead man/woman walking. Id prefer if you lynched Ina first, but if I have to go, I am prepared and I would benefit the town from dying.

My report last night was that Johnny is an upstanding townie, no malicious intent from the man, jokes not withstanding.

Now lynch Inazuma or me, it's not that hard...but the green bastard has to go!
You claim you are only going to reveal your report when you "need to" and now you revealed it, what changed to make you feel you needed to?

Johnny
Oct 4 2016, 02:02 PM
Is there a mafia role that detects players' alignments?
Possibly, or it could just be doing some extra detective work.
ex: Mafia infoguy investigates [Identity thief]. He says "Well I know none of the mafia has that power because we are plotting our evil plans together. I also doubt that a townie would have a power that does more harm to the town than it could help so they must be 3rd party" 'Mafia infoguy' now makes the accurate prediction that [Identity thief] is third party we lynch identity and get fooled by the mafia.

Nero
Oct 4 2016, 04:37 PM
Not like you have been helping at all.

I'm done too, you may not be scum, but third party is just as dangerous.

I know I am not lying, I know you are. That is the facts.
But is third party just as dangerous? We don't know who the mafia goon is (I am assuming the mafia has at least one murder role)

Nero
Oct 4 2016, 06:00 PM
I agree with scum should come first when lynching, but I pointed out an wnemy to the town, we know who he is. Doesn't that trump the unknown?
See my earlier part of the post

Johnny
Oct 4 2016, 07:13 PM
Hoo boy. This Nero/Inazuma clash is really somethin'.

As others have said, the easiest way to solve this is by lynching either of them.

If Nero is right, it doesn't matter who we lynch, the mafia should kill the other.
Why wouldn't they want a cop or Third Party killed?

If Nero is lying, though, by killing him we don't necessarily confirm Ina's innocence, but he'd at least be a regular suspect, as most the rest of us are.

If either was town, I'd prefer Nero, just for having a more useful power (that we know), but again, if he is town, Mafia will probably kill him so saving him might not matter.

There is a possibility that they're mafia buddies, banking on one's death to confirm the other's innocence, but that again doesn't make sense, cause if Ina flips
RED, then we know Nero lied, and he still gets the noose...

There also is the possibility that NERO is a mafia-aligned role-reader type of role, and is setting himself up to look innocent by truthfully calling out Inazuma. Does that role exist?

Complicating things is the abscence of a silenced person on Day 2, either trying to set up Ina to look like a liar or proving his scumness...

Nero's report on me makes me slightly less suspicious of him, as it matches what I know, but of course, no one else can take that at face value. I'm more inclined to lynch Ina now, but I can't help but wonder if it will matter (besides clearing up confusion).


As for Aphelandra, as Toto says, her claim of "Vanilla Town" rather than Townie is slightly off...

Now that Nero has given his report on me, after saying he'd rather hold that info, if Nero gets vindicated, it can probably be inferred I have some sort of role
(won't elaborate obviously, but let's just say it's nothing that major or else I wouldn't admit it at all).
Add mine to Nero/Ina/Ohm/Funkfreed/Sandersonia, well, I'm starting to think Boa's theory of no Vanillas.
And if that is true.... Aphelandra's claim is even more suspicious.

Of course, I can't confirm that, and I'm not asking everyone else to come claim. But everyone think about it individually. If you are a Power Townie, and not on that list of users
(Nero/Ohm/Ina/Johnny/Funkfreed/Boa)... that theory is becoming more credible.


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Haredas
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Toto
Oct 4 2016, 10:53 PM
It is disturbingly quiet, ho...

Merry and Charlotte have yet to post. I'm expecting something of substance before long (especially from Charlotte, given her inactivity Day 2). Same goes for Keimi who never came back after a trivial first post, despite me addressing her directly, and whom I still have an eye on.

Dorry continues to not scum hunt, though in light of everything else I'm not in any rush to jump on that wagon.

Johnny, I liked your post, but do you have a suggested course of action?

Haredas, when you come back, your full input please.

Ohm, anything else to add? Other than not being able to search the word "town" in the filtered list of Aphelandra's posts, much less re-read the day? I'm also still trying to wrap my head around what role you could have possibly been assigned that gave you the information you claim to have.

Merry/Charlotte/Keimi I agree with. Merry does seem to usually post a fair amount so if we don't hear anything from him I think that is a warning flag of some sort.
Dorry I find him and Funkfreed to be the most suspicious but I also don't want to rush any wagons since we still have over 24 hours to decide on the best action.

Ohm really needs to give us some explanations, can he use his power multiple times? if he can what new info does he have for us those numbers could be the factor that changes who we lynch.

as for Haredas, I hope this is my full input. If anyone feels I have overlooked any questions or thinks of something to ask me please do so.


Also not to destract from Dorry or Inazuma/Nero but potential idea about Funkfreed:
What if Funkfreed has some sort of "chain-kill" or "multi-kill" ability that he has to prep?

  • He claims he can reveal his plan after several days
  • He claims he has powers but is getting role blocked
  • He is confident that 3 people could die in a single night
What if he thinks multiple people can die because he IS a killer and for whatever reason his ability works that he "marks" one of his targets each night and then gets to kill all of them in one go?


ps: I meant to post after the big johnny quote saying that I am conflicted on the Inazuma/Nero thing and think we need more info to determine who we should believe.
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Nero
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I AM WEASEL
@Haredas: the problem is being third party Inazuma is an unknown entity. What he can do is a mystery, as opposed to the mafia winning when they reach a majority by killing. We have no idea what Ina's win con is and that scares the hell out of me.

To the Funkfreed business, I wouldn't be surprised if he were scum. He is still high on my suspect list because of our first day back and forth. This business with multi kill worry is so out of left field it is concerning.
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Toto
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Haredas
Oct 4 2016, 11:28 PM
What if Funkfreed has some sort of "chain-kill" or "multi-kill" ability that he has to prep?

  • He claims he can reveal his plan after several days
  • He claims he has powers but is getting role blocked
  • He is confident that 3 people could die in a single night
What if he thinks multiple people can die because he IS a killer and for whatever reason his ability works that he "marks" one of his targets each night and then gets to kill all of them in one go?

What if he just wanted to be around to use his power a few days before full claiming, and was just really bad about trying to be vague? Or maybe he's just lying altogether and actually is anit-town (though right now I don't especially suspect it), but regardless a prep-requiring multi-kill is back to conspiracy-level speculation in my opinion, ho ho.

Haredas
Oct 4 2016, 11:28 PM
ps: I meant to post after the big johnny quote saying that I am conflicted on the Inazuma/Nero thing and think we need more info to determine who we should believe.

Well I see two courses of action today:

1) Lynch Nero or Inazuma and start untangling that mess
2) Lynch someone else

Option 2) would apparently lead us toward Dorry, which I mean, on any uneventful day I would be fine with exploring as an avenue, but first of all I have higher suspects and second of all, I really think we SHOULD resolve the Nero/Inazuma issue sooner rather than later.

And of Nero/Inazuma, I haven't heard any arguments about why Nero would be a better lynch. I'm not even sure it matters who you think sounds more trustworthy, since again you don't lynch a cop before verifying his claims. Or does someone want to argue against this? And I still think they might just both need to die. If Nero is lying, lynching him is the right thing to do. If Nero is telling the truth, then lynching him is the right thing to do, sooner or later (or wait for the mafia to do it, if they believe him, or fear him, or think we won't do it for them).
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Merry

I feel late to the Day. We lost our Fruit Vendor but at least it wasn't that important of a role, no offense Boa may you rest in piece.

That was a quick vote for Nero you did there Inazuma but you do bring up a valid point. Why is he still alive? For that matter, why is Toto also still alive after pulling off that major wagon against Gan Fall Yesterday? Out of everyone I'm really surprised not one of them bit the dust.

Now, there are a few options I can see for both of them living. One of them being the Mafia was too scared about either one being watched or protected. Another reason is 1 of them is Mafia (less likely both) and, again, Mafia decided it was too risky to go after the other. Either way, while it's something to consider the more suspicious of the 2 is by far Nero.

Yeah, he could be a Role Cop (able to see another player's role) aligned with Mafia and getting a lucky catch on Night 1 with finding Inazuma's 3rd Party alignment could explain his eagerness to come out on Day 2 to gain Town cred. But if he's telling the truth of only being able to see a player's alignment it would be harder to believe he's Mafia because exactly how useful would that be for them? They know each other's alignment and ultimately that's all that matters in deciding who and who not to kill. But you know what? Mafia or Townie all signs point too him correctly outing Inazuma as a 3rd Party evildoer. Why would a Mafioso sacrifice himself to out a Townie?

On to Inazuma. I'm surprised you didn't say anything about Porsche's lack of being silenced. No questions whatsoever, it seems you just believed her. Maybe because there is no Silencer . She herself said that she was able come on twice, briefly, but neither time was able to post at least a sentence letting us know something? Of all the people you should be jumping on that because this silence claim is your defense but, nope, nothing.

So far I see no reason to not lynch you Today. Either you're 3rd Party and that's a good lynch, or you're a Townie, which is a negative, but Nero will die Tomorrow and that'll be our 2nd Mafia and only by Day 4.

I have more to say on other things but upcoming.
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Haredas
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Nero
Oct 5 2016, 12:02 AM
@Haredas: the problem is being third party Inazuma is an unknown entity. What he can do is a mystery, as opposed to the mafia winning when they reach a majority by killing. We have no idea what Ina's win con is and that scares the hell out of me.

To the Funkfreed business, I wouldn't be surprised if he were scum. He is still high on my suspect list because of our first day back and forth. This business with multi kill worry is so out of left field it is concerning.
I am not highly worried about it, I honestly think he just regular Mafia and I would lynch Dorry before him. Just all his talks focusing about powers reminded me of a game I once played with some sort of arson role. Chances are low and I don't think we should focus on it I just thought I would mention it.

As for Inazuma I guess looking at it from a "win condition" angle does make him a bigger threat but on the other hand I feel like it is more likely the mafia will kill any specific player than Inazuma will. if ohm can truly check these things (like if Inazuma was a growing cult) it might change my mind on who was the more pressing issue.

Toto
Oct 5 2016, 12:03 AM

What if he just wanted to be around to use his power a few days before full claiming, and was just really bad about trying to be vague? Or maybe he's just lying altogether and actually is anit-town (though right now I don't especially suspect it), but regardless a prep-requiring multi-kill is back to conspiracy-level speculation in my opinion, ho ho.

as I said earlier it is just something I have seen in a game, I agree it is nothing but speculation and I think Dorry is a bigger priorty than funkfreed (although I suspect Funkfreed is also scum)
Toto
Oct 5 2016, 12:03 AM
Well I see two courses of action today:

1) Lynch Nero or Inazuma and start untangling that mess
2) Lynch someone else

Option 2) would apparently lead us toward Dorry, which I mean, on any uneventful day I would be fine with exploring as an avenue, but first of all I have higher suspects and second of all, I really think we SHOULD resolve the Nero/Inazuma issue sooner rather than later.

And of Nero/Inazuma, I haven't heard any arguments about why Nero would be a better lynch. I'm not even sure it matters who you think sounds more trustworthy, since again you don't lynch a cop before verifying his claims. Or does someone want to argue against this? And I still think they might just both need to die. If Nero is lying, lynching him is the right thing to do. If Nero is telling the truth, then lynching him is the right thing to do, sooner or later (or wait for the mafia to do it, if they believe him, or fear him, or think we won't do it for them).
my only issue with lynching Inazuma first is that if he flips town than we would lynch Nero which would leave people who I am almost certain are mafia an extra 2 nights to work on killing us that they might not have depending on which mafia role we lynch.



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