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Day 5 - A Moment of Silence
Topic Started: Oct 9 2016, 05:07 PM (1,990 Views)
Elizabello II
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I did my avatar for day 0, I think. Actually pretty sure I did.
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Domino
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With 11 players left, it takes 6 to lynch.

Keimi (3): Laki, Toto, Dorry,
Richie (1): Johnny
Elizabello II (1): Keimi
Ohm (1): Elizabello II

Not voting (5): Haredas, Merry, Ohm, Porsche, Richie.

Less than 16 hours left~
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Johnny
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Robert Townie Jr.
Ok, it's finally complete.

The Case Against Richie

Exhibit A: The Dastardly Distraction

Richie, Day 1
#145
Roar! (Not gonna be able to be that active for a few hours yet. But I find interesting on how little follow-up we've got on the Johnny

situation. You could argue that Nero, Funkfreed and Gan Fall even diverted the attention from it, after Toto's post.)


Day 1. My Faith post that is at best a display of unsporstmanshiplike conduct is somehow more worthy of focus and being distracted by the investigations of Nero,

Funkfreed, and Gan Fall
.


Exhibit B: The Aphelandra Allegations

I know some of this has already been brought up, but I believe it merits further consideration, especially when you look at the whole context of how it all went down.

So first Sandersonia asks this:

Sandersonia, Day 2
#76
Gan Fall. Were the first words in your message: Hello Townie!, Welcome Townie!, or Hi Townie! ?
NO ONE ELSE ANSWER THAT! NO ONE!!!!!!!!!!


As we all know now, and those of us who are Townies knew at the time, this was a trick question.

Gan Fall stumbles on this, being the mafia that he is.
This question is also re-inforced by a question asking about the win condition in his PM, which he again stumbles on.

Then his scumbuddy Aphelandra attempts to give him a hand:

Aphelandra, Day 2
#130
I'm not entirely convinced, though. If Laki truly didn't receive a win condition in her PM then perhaps there is a difference between power and non-power role PMs. Do you have a power, Gan Fall?


Here Aphelandra tries to establish a "difference" between power and non-power role PM formats. No mention is made of the intro message. Being mafia, Aphelandra obviously doesn't know a townie's intro format.

Almost immediately afterwards, we are bombarded by pages of the Nero vs Inazuma standoff. However, one little message manages to sneak its way in.
Funkfreed, Day 2
#145
Oh if you mean pm intro mine was
You are funkfreed the ...


Funkfreed gives away the Townie Role PM format. Now any mafia member paying attention (they know that Funkfreed is Town obviously) knows our PM intro format.


Not too long later, we get this interesting exchange.

Richie
Day 2 #170
Aphelandra, you claim being a Vanilla. Can I ask you if your PM text was along the lines of 'You are a Vanilla Townie' ore a little bit different. You don't have to answer in too much detail, since copying your whole text is forbidden anyway.


Could this be Richie spoonfeeding this piece of info to Aphelandra?

Aphelandra
Day 2 #172
It did not begin with that. It began with "You are Aphelandra the Vanilla Town."


Richie, Day 2
#173
Thank you. I'm inclined to believe you now.


Bam. Already suspicious on its own, due to believing someone so easily in this game, not to mention, someone who turns out to be mafia.
Even more suspicious when it appears that Richie pretty much invented this proof and yet he believes it right away anyways.

But it gets worse.

Exhibit C: The Ridiculous Role Reasoning

Richie
 
Also the reason, why I believe Aphelandra for now, is that she mentioned a specific word in her role PM that I feel like she couldn't uttered with certainty if she was lying - though still easily possible to be a bluff.



Richie has proof Aphelandra wasn't mafia. What proof? A single word. "the"

Richie, Day 4
#28
And I really believed her on Day 2, because she said the word "the" in her Role PM so confidently...with there being more Townies it could easily been replaced by an "a"...of course thinking "Town" was a silly mistake.


So because she specifically said "the" instead of "a", this is concrete evidence that she is telling the truth, but the fact that she screwed up the name of her own "role" is probably just a dumb mistake. Huh.

This also makes no sense from a grammatical standpoint. You are Richie a lion or Richie the lion; either one would make sense regardless of whether or not you are the only lion present.

What's more, is as the wagon grows, so too does our friend Richie's suspicions of Aphelandra conveniently grow. Almost identical to how Aphelandra grew "more suspicious" of Gan Fall as his wagon grew, starting with "not guilty" to "probably not" to "maybe but there's a bigger suspect" to "definitely guilty".

Just click on All Posts by Richie from the Days 2-4 threads to see what I'm talking about.

Quote:
 

Thank you. I'm inclined to believe you now.


Quote:
 
Also the reason, why I believe Aphelandra for now, is that she mentioned a specific word in her role PM that I feel like she couldn't uttered with certainty if she was lying - though still easily possible to be a bluff.


Note how he leaves a door open for doubt, common mafia behaviour that, not 100% committed so he can easily return and bus if necessary.

Quote:
 
I indeed find it highly suspicious that she apparently only got "Vanilla Town". But only after her newest post, yesterday I really just thought it was a harmless mistake - however now she has stated that she actually only just got that. And that I find weird, I would assume the mods would pretty much copy+paste the texts of same roles.

I still find Dorry the bigger suspect as of now though.


Quote:
 
Oh, I am absolutely willing to vote Aphelandra. Though I actually don't see how even Mafia wouldn't at this point, she is pretty much confirmed to be one of them. Still, I want more out of this day than just lynching the obvious, so we can figure out who are the other mafia members.


Exhibit D: The Convicting Claim

Finally we have Richie's claim of Vanilla, which in itself is fishy, given all the claims surfacing. The only other person to claim Vanilla Townie was Aphelandra, a mafia.













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Johnny
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Robert Townie Jr.
My secondary suspect is someone who seems to keep flying just under the radar.

But when I read her posts in order, it made a few bells went off in my head.

I'm talking of course of our good friend Laki.
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Toto
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A Hole New World
Okay, so after some re-reading, here are some things I'd like to mention:

Laki is still feeling like town to me at this point. I still don't feel convinced, but she reasons her actions thoroughly and did seem to genuinely point out interesting/useful things, such as that goons may not necessarily have to do the killing, calling out Inazuma for inefficient word use, etc.

Richie is one where I'm leaning town now as well. I don't like the sudden trust in Aphelandra's claim, but overall I think he seems more town than not. For the negatives, I noticed some generalization, such as on Day 1 claiming there was "more or less an agreement" about lynching Brulee which I wouldn't have said (Aphelandra tried to speak for the town in similar fashions too). Also expressed fear of the Fool as pointed out. He also quickly followed Elizabello's lead when going for Dorry, which I feel is a very interesting lynch to focus on in more detail because it was sort of a cheap/easy alternate wagon on a day when there was a clear, cop report-based focus.

But he did have positives, such as promoting discussion and questioning claims on Day 1, picking up on Porsche's misgendering of Elizabello, being the first to point out Inazuma's absence, etc. Not that some of those couldn't be cast in a negative light. Now something else seemed really town-like to me, and it might be me latching onto a minor detail and assigning it too much meaning, but on Day 3, after the mason claim Richie of course abandoned pursuit of Dorry. But what he said was that he was now considering Aphelandra or Inazuma. Now, if Aphelandra were his scum buddy, it would have been logical to me for him to simply switch straight to Inazuma/Nero, the other obvious focus. Nobody would have thought anything of it. But he took the time to mention Aphelandra, despite there being no wagon. This could be very forward-thinking and astute mafia planning, but to me it looks very townie.

Porsche I still can't really place. Seems to be helping the town, but I'm very undecided on her alignment. I hope she stays active because something about her just makes me a little nervous. I will say, on the first Day she accused Laki of guiding the town and warned us about following her, which I felt was very premature/odd.

Keimi probably comes off less scummy to me on re-read than my previous impressions, at least based just on post content. Her first day involved a lot of fluff and asking if the mafia would hide behind role-play, but she also did call out Ohm for his claim, pressure Elizabello for not posting early on, grilled Funkfreed, called out Haredas' passivity, etc. One thing that I didn't like so much was her comment that she'd noticed Inazuma's absence but stayed silent intentionally, followed by grilling Richie for not pressing Inazuma harder. She also expressed her distrust in Inazuma, but Aphelandra convinced her otherwise very quickly. Ultimately she refuses to consider an Inazuma vote.

Keimi spends most of Day 2 talking about things being "confusing" until later admitting that the case on Gan Fall is "now massive and with little doubt," yet she does not vote him. Then of course there is Aphelandra asking me why I suspect Keimi. Overall there is enough negative there for me to still suspect her, but maybe she's not my top suspect anymore?

Ohm is a guy I am choosing to trust, for now. His behavior seems genuine, and I don't feel like he'd fake-claim so early and choose such a low 3rd-party count (one), then pass it off as a mistake. As I said before, he claimed a role that doesn't make sense for a townie in almost any setup but it does in this one, and he couldn't have known that beforehand. Things that support his genuineness include asking for confirmation on total players before giving his report (implying he was, in fact, doing some arithmetic to get all the numbers), stating that unless he said otherwise those were the absolute facts (implying he has a way to re-check later), and specifically stating on Day 3 that he has no "new (relevant)" information. The only post by him that really stands out as bad is when he said he didn't suspect Aphelandra and said he could not find her town claim. Incidentally, Aphelandra asked him an awful lot about his ability, leading me to believe they are not scum buddies. I just wish the guy would show up.

The two people I'm saving for last are the two I'm actually the most interested in, Merry and Elizabello. But I'll give them their own post, especially since I just saw Johnny posted so I'll take a break here and read up on that.
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Johnny
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Robert Townie Jr.
OHM how many Mafia are there now?
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Toto
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A Hole New World
Keimi, feel free to (in fact, please do) reply to my post. In the meantime it seems Johnny has drawn opposite conclusions from me. Typical. Anyway, I shall continue:

Merry just keeps standing out as being somehow "off." Ever since the beginning of the first day he has stated being concerned about "everyone." Well, that's not helpful to say. Later, Gan Fall seems to be in agreement with Merry after claiming to have been ninja'd by him. Next, Merry says it would take TWO days of inactivity for him to consider an inactive lynch, yet spends a lot of the first day obsessively asking people their stance on inactive lynches, even for players who have stated their views and laid votes. Finally of note, on Day 1 he also gets on Dorry's case for being inconsistent.

On Day 2, Merry spends a lot of time going into speculation and theoreticals about the Silencer. He also decides to make a weird and meaningless distinction between a 3rd party and lone wolf, which Pizarro eventually clarifies himself. Merry also begins somehow arguing that Salome must have been the Silencer, which makes zero sense but when I point this out, he goes into a big discussion about how it might be an ITEM and not a ROLE, as if that somehow makes it more plausible for Salome to have used it Day 1. He insists multiple times, even when I argue against him.

Still on Day 2, when Gan Fall's slip is pointed out, he very emphatically and dramatically declares his lynch against him (trying to bus convincingly?), but then goes off on tangents such as joking(?) that Richie might have been silenced and wasted his single post on the comment about being drunk, or grilling Funkfreed about his number of deaths hypotheticals. Overall for the rest of the day he remains obsessed with items and the possibility of item exchanging, and decides to accuse me of refusing to discuss 3rd parties (after Aphelandra accused me of the same thing earlier, I might add), which was not true. He posted a largely self-evident recap at one point as well. The only other thing of note on Day 2 was his curious claim to Aphelandra that Nero's undercover cop claim made him LESS trustworthy than a regular cop claim, because it was less likely to get counter-claimed. A cop is a cop though, even if undercover. A regular cop counter-claim would have been bad either way.

Then of course later on Day 4 Merry jumped at the opportunity to go after Richie after I spontaneously questioned him, which seemed odd to me.

Elizabello is looking distinctly scummy to me right now, and his decision to vote Ohm of all people just makes it worse. On Day 1 he took a while to post initially, but when he finally did he expressed frustration at breadcrumbing and subtlety, wanting people to give straight answers even from the start. He also says something curious, which is that he's fine with either inactive lynch (Brulee or Inazuma) as long as it's not "automatic and lazy." What does he mean? What would qualify as a non-lazy inactive lynch? We were always going to discuss things and pursue anything legitimately scummy, so it just seemed weird to me that he stuck that in there as a sort of disclaimer. He later gets on Dorry's case and then says he believes Inazuma, and tells us that pressure voting him is useless because he's not lying and he still needs to hear more from Inazuma (I still don't get why anyone thought he'd have more useful input).

Day 2, Elizabello immediately asks for night reports. That's a flag. He expresses concern about Sandersonia handing stuff out. Suddenly he is willing to lynch Inazuma, but doesn't think he's the Silencer because he can't think of a 3rd-party win condition that fits the power. But now it gets interesting. In response to Sandersonia, he says this: "You are accepting the existence of a role blocker based on funkfreeds claim or for other reasons?"

http://s15.zetaboards.com/Dungeon_Crawl_Mafia/single/?p=10003996&t=10030370

I didn't think much of it at the time, but in retrospect, knowing Funkfreed wasn't getting roleblocked, this really looks like Elizabello actually knows Funkfreed's claims are bogus because he's mafia, and either they've been targeting someone else and are nervous that they were discovered or they don't have a role blocker at all. The next thing that really struck me was when Gan Fall claimed JOAT (despite previously claiming he had a one-off trade!), and Elizabello acted confused about JOAT, asking what it meant. This smells to me because he had just gotten done having a discussion with Funkfreed about the mafiascum wiki, telling Funkfreed not to rely too much on the wiki because individual games often modify roles. And yet... he didn't just look it up? One theory I have is that JOAT is actually Elizabello's power (which was perhaps used to Silence), and he got flustered when Gan Fall suddenly claimed to have it and wanted to feign cluelessness to protect himself.

Day 3 Elizabello shows up and refuses to weigh in on Aphelandra until she addresses my accusations, but then goes to sleep and doesn't address it at all. All of this, combined with his voting pattern (only cast a vote for the non-scum lynch we did), makes me really, really suspect Elizabello.
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Haredas
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Ok thank you to everyone who made all these lengthy posts lots of valid points have been addressed.

I am sorting through some of my ideas while reflecting on what you guys have said. I would like to see Toto's planned posts because "The two people I'm saving for last are the two I'm actually the most interested in" seems like it could be significant.

As for Ohm: has anyone seen him online or anything? unless I am missing something it has been 6 days (minus ~6 hours) since he has posted anything and I am really wanting some answers from him.
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Haredas
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wow toto ninja'd me going to read your post and check things out.
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Toto
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A Hole New World
No, I haven't even seen Ohm lurking in days. It may be intentional, but if not, maybe the mods could try to check in on him and see if he's okay?
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