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Day 6 - Stay Vigilant
Topic Started: Oct 12 2016, 04:31 PM (2,101 Views)
Domino
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With 9 players left, it takes 5 to lynch.

Ohm (1): Elizabello II
Haredas (1): Merry
Merry (2): Toto, Haredas
Elizabello II (2): Richie, Dorry

Not voting (3): Laki, Ohm, Porsche.

Around 14 hours left~
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Toto
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A Hole New World
Wow, glad to see you Dorry!

Alright I'm going to lay my thoughts on the table here now, that I've been mulling around. I'm very well-aware that this could get me killed tonight (either because I'm right or to frame someone), but I feel it's necessary. First of all, the people I currently think are pretty town, more or less in order (most to least): Toto, Dorry, Ohm, Haredas, Elizabello

Ohm's claim, as I and others have gone over multiple times, is too incredulous and too early to consider fake. After today's events, I am trusting Haredas. Now the matter of Elizabello. I find him scummy, I really do. I totally don't blame anyone for wanting to lynch him, especially after his partial claim, and I've had my vote on him too. But the devil's in the details. On Day 2 he did ask Ohm whether the counts were at night or during the day, which is really hard to explain in any way other than having a role that displays a different alignment depending on the phase. His claim gets way more believable from that. So I don't know if he's a Miller (are there some power townie roles remaining that would warrant this?) or he has some other cool ability to offset his night-time mafia status, but I kind of have to believe him. Plus what kind of mafia would make a claim like that when we're already doubting Ohm's numbers and he's AWOL? His Day 2 post for reference: http://s15.zetaboards.com/Dungeon_Crawl_Mafia/single/?p=10003908&t=10030370

Okay, so hopefully that explains why I feel that way about the above players. Which means people I suspect: Laki, Merry, Richie, Porsche

Before I go further, the matter of number of mafia remaining. Ohm reported 5 mafia. But, Nero counted as mafia during the day. And the simple fact that he claimed and gave numbers on Day 1, when Pizarro EXPLICITLY stated there was no night phase before the first day, means by necessity his numbers were not obtained during the night. Therefore Nero was counted and there were actually 4 total mafia. Okay, so we're looking for a remaining pair.

Laki is mostly in this group because I continue to fail to have a good read on her, and she hasn't claimed. But instinctively, she acts like a townie. Her posts are pretty well-reasoned and she would have taken something of a gamble by stating she had no win condition. Richie claimed Vanilla early on alongside Aphelandra and believed her for a rather lame reason. Kind of suspicious, but would two mafia players claim vanilla in a row and defend each other? Possibly, but I'd like to think not. And despite doubting my instincts earlier today and saying I would lynch Richie, during my re-read he really DID feel like a townie, even if possibly inexperienced or misguided at times.

My grand conclusion? Merry and Porsche are scum-buddies.

Now I've already pointed out various reasons I suspect Merry. He focuses on lots of derailing details, clouds things up, and misses or fails to respond to a lot of points made toward him. Most recently, the "Vanilla Town" vs. "Vanilla Townie" thing, that I thought nobody would mistake again; maybe he was too excited and focused on making Haredas look bad? But at any rate, I urge you guys to re-read his stuff and the cases against him. And I'll leave you to analyze his new actions and claim from today, but he sure jumped to an odd conclusion if he's telling the truth; I just don't buy it.

Porsche has really not been scrutinized much overall, and has been pretty inactive or entirely gone, depending on the day. Both of those are already somewhat grounds to feel uneasy. But I will briefly say that in recent days, what bothers me most is her posts are generally in a summary format, where she might mention some stuff giving her bad vibes or questions to certain players, pointing out certain patterns, but not much else. I also feel she has been rehashing other peoples' thoughts as her own somewhat.

I hate to leave you guys in suspense, but I'm running out of time. I will return later with a post where I want to compile some more specific criticism of Porsche, as well as a more thorough case for them being scum buddies that focuses more on their behaviors in general and toward each other.
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Dorry
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Giant-Term Memory Loss
I can agree with the suspicion around Merry and Porsche, and so for the sake of getting things done

Unvote

Vote Lynch: Merry
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Merry

Haredas
Oct 13 2016, 11:49 PM
The main factors for my rushed softclaim are that I am going to be really busy at work the next few days and after seeing how day 5 was playing out with us lynching a poor mermaid girl who I was leaning towards being town I figured I would make a risky bluff and imply I was the bomb which I had been implying the whole game. the possible outcome I saw:


Ok, look here Mr. Banananana. I just want to make something clear.

You had me sitting here laughing at myself thinking I was going crazy for hours last yesterday thinking I made a huge mistake about your softclaim. On top of everyone asking me, 'Why did you jump to the conclusion that Herades was softclaiming Bomb.' All I can do was ask...well, wasn't it obvious!? Maybe it was more obvious to me because of my role but I swear I thought people were being dense on purpose. I fully admit I did not catch your previous hints/bluffs to being a Bomb (hindsight is 20/20) but I'm no good at catching the subtle clues, more the obvious stuff. Like when I saw your oh so very obvious softclaim last Night I knew you were talking about my role.

Quote:
 
b) The mafia would be scared of my taunts and try to lynch me either managing to lynch me and when I flip Vanilla Townie look like the total scum they are or reveal themselves in the atempt.


That's me apparently. But did you stop to think that a Townie could be a Bomb and might call you on your bluff because they're thinking you're Mafia trying to set yourself up for their role?

I'm not even mad at you. I'm mad at myself. -_-

Quote:
 
I was running out of leads and did not want another failure of a day where we got convinced to lynch another townie with nothing to show for it.


But come on, man, you didn't have to do that. We were doing really well with lynches and on our 1 mislych was a Vanilla Townie who quite frankly wasn't being much of service. I see where you were going and all that but I don't think it was necessary to draw all that heat on you unnecessarily.

Quote:
 
Seriously I promise that I am a townie and my only request if you kill me is to remember Cavendish was a decent player, helped lynch two mafia members and kept his word the whole game. This game was a chance to get to know you guys and what matters to me most is that you see me for who I am.


Well, it's easy to argue against the words that could mean anything but harder to fight that link and the mod banana.

Unvote

Toto
Oct 13 2016, 09:09 PM
Great. So your death, if you flipped town, would virtually guarantee that the next day we lynch Scummedas. You even volunteer yourself to be lynched first. But not if you have to hammer. You'd rather keep yourself alive and put us one townie short in the exact same position as the day before. This is where that "scum or bad townie" accusation starts to gain traction.


I'm assuming you don't believe in doing that now. When I flip Town you should go after Porsche. I don't believe Haredas is lying about his claim especially since he's not softclaiming Bomb anymore.

Also, I'm not sorry I believe that 1 dead Townie is bad enough and 2 dead Townies is even worse, especially when it's absolutely avoidable. You would want me to make the latter happen to prove a point? Nah, man.
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Merry

Toto
Oct 14 2016, 02:28 AM
Most recently, the "Vanilla Town" vs. "Vanilla Townie" thing


One thing. This might make me scummy but I'm confused as to what you're talking about here? I use those words interchangeably and is the only time I use those words. I can call you a Vanilla Town or a Vanilla Townie but they mean the same thing.

All your other points about me I've addressed already. If you're going to lynch me do it like Haredas and Dorry. Do it to get the Day done, not to make me look scummy.
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Laki
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Hey, everyone. I'm back, and just got through reading through the Day 6 thread. I'm very sorry about my absence. This has been a busier week than normal, so when I get home, I've been wanting to just relax and wind down. But I'm definitely here, and ready to discuss as much as needed for the rest of the evening.

I know I haven't given a summary of my thoughts of the other players yet, so I'm reading through the posts of most of the remaining players to see what impressions I have as of now. The three exceptions are myself, obviously, Dorry (because he's confirmed Town at this point) and Haredas, because, after reading through this whole giant Haredas vs Merry squabble and Haredas's post #143 today, I'm very heavily inclined to believe him. If I start to really doubt him for some reason, and feel he merits being scrutinized more closely, I'll do so, but for now, I'm trying to save myself time. I'll post my thoughts on people here soon once I'm done with the read through.

Also, about modkilling Ohm: is there any chance we could, say, find a substitute for him or something instead? I personally feel like he is very likely a townie, and it seems that others do, too. If he mod-dies and flips Town, after the Mafia kills somebody tonight, that would bring us down by at least two townies. If we mislynch today, AND if somebody uses the gun on a townie (either Johnny accidentally giving it to a Mafia who uses it for a second kill--although I would hope he'd give it to Dorry--or it goes to a townie who accidentally kills another townie with it), we'd have the potential to lose 4 townies before Day 7 starts. If there really are two Mafia left, that would put us in a very dangerous situation. I have to hope we won't have all of those things happen, but even losing 3 townies by the time Day 7 starts would still be pretty bad.

I guess the proposed alternative of using the gun to kill Ohm is a viable option. It'd really suck because I want to hear from Ohm (and giving us a substitute would at least let us hear from someone who knows what his powers are), and using the gun on somebody who's probably Town seems like a big waste of its potential. But to me, at least, the idea of using it on somebody else AND still having Ohm modkilled is definitely a big gamble, unless we still have people left with some kind of investigative powers left in the game who pretty much confirm a Mafia--which, by this point in the Day, will probably not happen. I suppose that is the whole point of the gun (it being a gamble), but at this stage of the game, is it really one we can afford to take? That's why I think trying to replace Ohm if he's out for good is a better option: we're not forced to kill him at all.
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Toto
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A Hole New World
Okay here's my follow-up post (Merry I'll address you after). And since Haredas likes alliteration:

Porsche Problems

It's hard to make a comprehensive case since overall she just hasn't posted all that many times. But I want to talk about a post today that backs up a few of my claims: http://s15.zetaboards.com/Dungeon_Crawl_Mafia/single/?p=10006497&t=10039079

It opens with:
Porsche
 
So, I've read everything and tried to make some decisions for myself.

This is kind of weird because it's like she's trying to prove that she's actually taking decisions. My accusation (and I think Elizabello's too, though I don't want to speak for him) revolved more around rushing out sloppy opinions/observations and then disappearing, but repeatedly asking nobody to end the day. Honestly I was irked by that post that said "be back in 14 hours don't do anything without me." But the point is, I never said she didn't make decisions for herself. So that announcement of "okay guys I'm going to be useful now!" bothered me... especially because of what followed.

What followed was a summary of the Merry/Haredas situation that was 95% EXACTLY WHAT I ALREADY SAID. The only substantially original part was this big "oooh I have a bad feeling, like Scummerry WANTS us to lynch him!" hesitation. So in the end it's the same, some summaries, some stated suspicion of Merry but no vote, followed by a mysterious gut feeling that we might be doing something horribly wrong. And then "watch out for Toto and whatever other people I think are acting weird."

Now, the other thing that really bothered me was when I accused her of not reading the current situation, and gave the example of my questions (to both Merry AND Haredas) about why Merry assumed a Bomb claim, she denied it. But she apparently just could not keep a consistent story on the matter. First she posts this:
Porsche
Oct 12 2016, 10:52 PM
I have a hard time following the Merry-Haredas clash here... Haredas' vagueclaim yesterday was very... vague, but for some reason Merry understood it well enough to counterclaim? If that is what's happening? I'm very interested to see what Haredas has to say about this.

Okay, she says she is confused. Maybe she should read more carefully, but okay.

A couple of hours later, she still acts perplexed, but has now caught on about the "blast" phrase:
Porsche
Oct 13 2016, 01:12 AM
Woah I am not understanding what's happening...

Haredas, you were softclaiming Bomb yesterday right? With the "blast"?

At that point at best she is explicitly stating information that could affect my interrogation, since Merry had not mentioned this and Haredas was saying there were multiple interpretations, so I told Porsche she was sabotaging my line of questioning. Her response?
Porsche
Oct 13 2016, 01:52 AM
Come on, that was obvious.

Uhh. So first she is totally confused, then a couple hours later she thinks she may have caught on but still acts doubtful, and then suddenly when I call her out it was obvious?. Geez, talk about inconsistency.

Lastly, and this isn't exactly a compelling/damning case, but I felt she was a little too focused/concerned on the gun. I mean voting on who to shoot is not a bad idea, and we've done it in past games, but she just feels... overly preoccupied with figuring out exactly what we're going to do with it and when, despite me thinking we should at least figure out what wagon we're going to push to consider our options in different flip scenarios.

Partner Patterns and Profiles

Okay, with that out of the way, let's examine their general behavior across the game, in very reduced terms.

Porsche:

Spoiler: click to toggle

Merry:

Spoiler: click to toggle


So I'll tell you what I sort of take away. Several times it has been mentioned that I could be a super bus-happy mafioso, but that I would be playing a hell of a risky game. I think Merry is the more believable version of that. He calls out his own teammates, but isn't hell-bent on pursuing them until it becomes obvious that they're in trouble, or they make a big slip. He's eager to prove he can get stuff done. Still a bit risky, maybe enough to explain this ploy against Haredas, but not as insane as it would be for ME to be scum given my actions.

Porsche is less active and a bit more cautious. She makes a lot of observations and presents a lot of information, and interrogates people, but is much less willing to put her vote out there and leave trails or patterns to follow. When the player pool reduced enough, she made it a point to start suspecting Merry so that people wouldn't think they are on a team.

We can also go further and examine the times the two directly interact:

Porsche:

Spoiler: click to toggle

Merry:

Spoiler: click to toggle


Basically they avoided each other until Day 5, when they probably decided they needed to not look like a possible pair. Merry's dramatic question on Day 2 about Porsche missing stands out too.

As for profiling, well until today, they both fit the profile of players who hadn't claimed and were on Keimi's wagon. Both of those categories should be looked at for at least one scum, and here we had both fitting both. I'm sure I'm missing stuff and this is by no means comprehensive; my summaries are very simplistic too. But I hope you can see where I'm coming from.
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Elizabello II
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Hah, just when I finished rereading Laki's posts. Also, seems townie to me. I really hate this because it basically leaves me with no major suspect. I'll read up on Merry again just to make sure but the last time I did that nothing jumped out at me and in today's discussion I found her more convincing than Haredas (haredas having more cred for the previous days).

In case I haven't made it clear. I have no intention of lynching Ohm at this point anymore. Even shooting him seems like a waste. Reason being that I do not believe there to be 5 mafia, but 4 instead which a) validates Ohm's report and b) makes it impossible to be a slip when he said there's 5. I still don't appreciate his lack of clarifications and overall usage of the role which is what my suspicion was based on. His absence doesn't really help us either. Either way, I'm dropping this.

unvote
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Elizabello II
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I can see where you are coming from. I'm at a stage where I'm both questioning my own capabilities and starting to compliment the remaining mafias abilty to blend in.
When I read through the players, I do find some questionable stuff but generally the good outweighs the bad and it doesn't allow me to make a clear cut case on anybody because I struggle in figuring out when the bad was mafia behavior or not and the same for the good.

What I really appreciate is that you are looking at teams rather than individual players. I need to do more of that.
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Toto
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A Hole New World
Merry
Oct 14 2016, 03:23 AM
I'm assuming you don't believe in doing that now. When I flip Town you should go after Porsche. I don't believe Haredas is lying about his claim especially since he's not softclaiming Bomb anymore.

Well I definitely think Porsche is my next biggest suspect. If you flip town I will have to re-evaluate other players though. Including Haredas.

Merry
Oct 14 2016, 03:23 AM
Also, I'm not sorry I believe that 1 dead Townie is bad enough and 2 dead Townies is even worse, especially when it's absolutely avoidable. You would want me to make the latter happen to prove a point? Nah, man.

See, when you say this, it really convinces me that you're not thinking as a townie. You may be pretending to, but ultimately you have preservation in mind, so your townie-logic only goes so deep. If you refused to bring closure to your wagon, you'd be anti-town. Dorry would presumably be night killed, and then we'd have no confirmed townie, and be in the exact same situation. People would be wondering the exact same questions, unable to resolve them the day before. So what happens if your lynch finally succeeds the next day? What happens is instead of two dead townies, now we have three. Or maybe with one less townie to vote, consensus cannot be reached and another no-lynch, or a rush lynch on another townie, happens instead. That's what this hypothetical is telling me about you.

Merry
Oct 14 2016, 03:33 AM
One thing. This might make me scummy but I'm confused as to what you're talking about here? I use those words interchangeably and is the only time I use those words. I can call you a Vanilla Town or a Vanilla Townie but they mean the same thing.

Yes, this does make you seem scummy. Massively scummy. Because it was the ENTIRE argument we had, spanning more than a day, about whether Aphelandra's vanilla claim was legit and whether Richie's defense of her made any sense. It's like... either you didn't feel the need to read any of that because as scum you didn't think it mattered, or you don't really care about the game?

Merry
Oct 14 2016, 03:33 AM
All your other points about me I've addressed already. If you're going to lynch me do it like Haredas and Dorry. Do it to get the Day done, not to make me look scummy.

I'm not doing it to make you look scummy, I'm doing it because you are scummy. It's not my next routine lynch because I have no suspects. Clearly.
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