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Election contest
Tweet Topic Started: Oct 26 2016, 09:08 PM (422 Views)
brumdog44 Oct 26 2016, 09:08 PM Post #1
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5 points for picking the correct winner of each state; an additional 3 points if you are within one percent of the outcome and 1 point if you are within 2.

Posting states that 538 currently has within 5 points in their now cast; adding Pennsylvania and Colorado since Trump's camp hasn't given up on them yet.

Note that if the states below are considered swing states, Clinton starts with 244 electoral votes and Trump starts with 156 . In parenthesis for each state is the number of electoral votes they have.

Feel free to edit your picks up under election day.

Finally, pick one free agent state in which you feel there could possibly be an unexpected victory out of nowhere for a candidate. If that happens, you earn 10 bonus points.

States:
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (20)
Georgia (16)
Florida (29)
Pennsylvania (20)
Iowa (6)
Utah (6) (pick winner between Trump, McMillan, and Clinton; margin should be from first to second place finisher)
Nevada (6)
Arizona (11)
Colorado (9)
New Hampshire (4)
Electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska's swing districts (2)

(NW and Maine/Nebraska added in)
Edited by brumdog44, Nov 4 2016, 10:16 PM.
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brumdog44 Oct 26 2016, 09:12 PM Post #2
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My picks:

North Carolina: Trump by 0 (less than .5%)
Ohio: Trump by 3
Georgia: Trump by 4
Florida: Clinton by 1
Pennsylvania: Clinton by 4
Iowa: Trump by 3
Utah: Trump by 4 (over McMillan)
Nevada: Trump by 2
Arizona: Clinton by 1
Colorado: Clinton by 4

Unexpected state: Trump wins New Hampshire

Under my scenario (but not with the unexpected state occurring) would put the electoral count at Clinton 313, Trump 225.
Edited by brumdog44, Oct 29 2016, 02:13 PM.
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dreachon Oct 27 2016, 07:05 AM Post #3
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brumdog44
Oct 26 2016, 09:08 PM
5 points for picking the correct winner of each state; an additional 3 points if you are within one percent of the outcome and 1 point if you are within 2.

Posting states that 538 currently has within 5 points in their now cast; adding Pennsylvania and Colorado since Trump's camp hasn't given up on them yet.

Note that if the states below are considered swing states, Clinton starts with 244 electoral votes and Trump starts with 156 . In parenthesis for each state is the number of electoral votes they have.

Feel free to edit your picks up under election day.

Finally, pick one free agent state in which you feel there could possibly be an unexpected victory out of nowhere for a candidate. If that happens, you earn 10 bonus points.

States:
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (20)
Georgia (16)
Florida (29)
Pennsylvania (20)
Iowa (6)
Utah (6) (pick winner between Trump, McMillan, and Clinton; margin should be from first to second place finisher)
Nevada (6)
Arizona (11)
Colorado (9)
I'm much more bullish on Clinton given that I still can't imagine anyone voting for Trump (even though I know they will) and that all his "rigged election" talk will keep his voters home.

North Carolina: Clinton by 4
Ohio: Clinton by 2
Georgia: Trump by 2
Florida: Clinton by 3
Pennsylvania: Clinton by 7
Iowa: Trump by 1
Utah: McMillan by 1 over Clinton
Nevada: Clinton by 3
Arizona: Clinton by 2
Colorado: Clinton by 8

Free agent pick - Clinton takes Missouri.
Edited by dreachon, Oct 27 2016, 07:06 AM.
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HoosierLars Oct 28 2016, 08:47 AM Post #4
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North Carolina: Trump by 3
Ohio: Trump by 3
Georgia: Trump by 6
Florida: Trump by 2
Pennsylvania: Clinton by 1
Iowa: Trump by 5
Utah: Trump by 3
Nevada: Trump by 2
Arizona: Trump by 4
Colorado: Clinton by 2

Unexpected state: None, Trump only gets to 265.
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brumdog44 Oct 29 2016, 02:13 PM Post #5
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I have tweaked my picks to reflect newest twist. Flipped two states to Trump (North Carolina and Nevada), changed my unexpected state.
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boilergrad01 Oct 29 2016, 09:53 PM Post #6
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brumdog44
Oct 26 2016, 09:12 PM
My picks:

North Carolina: Trump by 4
Ohio: Trump by 5
Georgia: Trump by 7
Florida: Trump by 3
Pennsylvania: Clinton by 4
Iowa: Trump by 5
Utah: Trump by 4 (over McMillan)
Nevada: Trump by 3
Arizona: Trump by 4
Colorado: Clinton by 4

Unexpected state: Trump wins Maine
Nothing beats an Astronaut
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brumdog44 Oct 29 2016, 11:51 PM Post #7
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With BG picking Trump to win the election, I like Clinton's chances.
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HoosierLars Oct 30 2016, 10:20 AM Post #8
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brumdog44
Oct 29 2016, 11:51 PM
With BG picking Trump to win the election, I like Clinton's chances.
538 has it at 3.2:1 which hasn't had time to account much for the FBI emails. I expect his odds to approach 2:1, closer than the deficit heading into Brexit. This Weiner may be more damaging to the Clintons' political future than the one in the 90's. Moral to the story: Don't let Oscar Meyer do too much of your thinking.

Edit: Trump would need Maine AND New Hampshire to win. I don't think bg called NH for Trump.
Edited by HoosierLars, Oct 30 2016, 11:10 AM.
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brumdog44 Oct 30 2016, 02:00 PM Post #9
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HoosierLars
Oct 30 2016, 10:20 AM
brumdog44
Oct 29 2016, 11:51 PM
With BG picking Trump to win the election, I like Clinton's chances.
538 has it at 3.2:1 which hasn't had time to account much for the FBI emails. I expect his odds to approach 2:1, closer than the deficit heading into Brexit. This Weiner may be more damaging to the Clintons' political future than the one in the 90's. Moral to the story: Don't let Oscar Meyer do too much of your thinking.

Edit: Trump would need Maine AND New Hampshire to win. I don't think bg called NH for Trump.
You are correct on bg. I misread it, thought he had Clinton taking only Pennsylvania but he had her taking Colorado as well.

I have no idea why you keep talking about Brexit. Are you seriously going to compare the history and amount of British polls to the United States presidential system?

On election night, Georgia is going to be a good early state to engage the election. The polls in Georgia close at 7, so it's a state that we will see results early. Trump will surely win Georgia. I'd say if it is within five points, that is a good sign for Clinton. If it's more than 6 1/2, that's a good sign for Trump. Between the two ,it's probably a race.
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HoosierLars Oct 30 2016, 05:49 PM Post #10
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brumdog44
Oct 30 2016, 02:00 PM
I have no idea why you keep talking about Brexit. Are you seriously going to compare the history and amount of British polls to the United States presidential system?
Both Trump and Brexit have a significant support from anti-establishment voters. I didn't expect you to understand.
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mongo Oct 30 2016, 07:11 PM Post #11
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mcmillan shocks the world and wins the election
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"Son, if you really want something in this life you have to work hard for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers."
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brumdog44 Oct 30 2016, 07:39 PM Post #12
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HoosierLars
Oct 30 2016, 05:49 PM
brumdog44
Oct 30 2016, 02:00 PM
I have no idea why you keep talking about Brexit. Are you seriously going to compare the history and amount of British polls to the United States presidential system?
Both Trump and Brexit have a significant support from anti-establishment voters. I didn't expect you to understand.
nice job of not remotely responding to what was actually posted.
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brumdog44 Oct 30 2016, 08:48 PM Post #13
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HoosierLars
Oct 30 2016, 10:20 AM
brumdog44
Oct 29 2016, 11:51 PM
With BG picking Trump to win the election, I like Clinton's chances.
538 has it at 3.2:1 which hasn't had time to account much for the FBI emails. I expect his odds to approach 2:1, closer than the deficit heading into Brexit. This Weiner may be more damaging to the Clintons' political future than the one in the 90's. Moral to the story: Don't let Oscar Meyer do too much of your thinking.

Edit: Trump would need Maine AND New Hampshire to win. I don't think bg called NH for Trump.
Currently a little over 3.3 to 1 on 538 polls plus (76.9 to 23 percent).

We are in uncharted territory in terms of a potential game changer this late in the campaign.

Regardless of who wins, I don't think I will have more disappointed in who got elected. Clinton would be by far the least desirable candidate I have voted for president but if she loses it will be to the person I would least like to have won. I certainly did not like W Bush, but it's nothing like this.
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boilergrad01 Oct 30 2016, 10:47 PM Post #14
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brumdog44
Oct 29 2016, 11:51 PM
With BG picking Trump to win the election, I like Clinton's chances.
I did???
Nothing beats an Astronaut
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sirbrianwilson Oct 31 2016, 12:19 AM Post #15
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boilergrad01
Oct 30 2016, 10:47 PM
brumdog44
Oct 29 2016, 11:51 PM
With BG picking Trump to win the election, I like Clinton's chances.
I did???
bg, fix yer fantasy team ;)
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