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Election contest
Tweet Topic Started: Oct 26 2016, 09:08 PM (423 Views)
HoosierLars Oct 31 2016, 09:07 AM Post #16
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brumdog44
Oct 30 2016, 08:48 PM
HoosierLars
Oct 30 2016, 10:20 AM
brumdog44
Oct 29 2016, 11:51 PM
With BG picking Trump to win the election, I like Clinton's chances.
538 has it at 3.2:1 which hasn't had time to account much for the FBI emails. I expect his odds to approach 2:1, closer than the deficit heading into Brexit. This Weiner may be more damaging to the Clintons' political future than the one in the 90's. Moral to the story: Don't let Oscar Meyer do too much of your thinking.

Edit: Trump would need Maine AND New Hampshire to win. I don't think bg called NH for Trump.
Currently a little over 3.3 to 1 on 538 polls plus (76.9 to 23 percent).

We are in uncharted territory in terms of a potential game changer this late in the campaign.

Regardless of who wins, I don't think I will have more disappointed in who got elected. Clinton would be by far the least desirable candidate I have voted for president but if she loses it will be to the person I would least like to have won. I certainly did not like W Bush, but it's nothing like this.
Agreed. Now Wikileaks is promising "phase 3" coming this week. :popcorn:
Edited by HoosierLars, Oct 31 2016, 09:08 AM.
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sirbrianwilson Oct 31 2016, 09:12 AM Post #17
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Was there a phase 2?
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HoosierLars Oct 31 2016, 09:13 PM Post #18
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sirbrianwilson
Oct 31 2016, 09:12 AM
Was there a phase 2?
Yeah, those were the Podesta ones. He's always struck me as a pompous ass, so I was glad he was the victim.
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brumdog44 Nov 1 2016, 04:51 PM Post #19
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HoosierLars
Oct 31 2016, 09:13 PM
sirbrianwilson
Oct 31 2016, 09:12 AM
Was there a phase 2?
Yeah, those were the Podesta ones. He's always struck me as a pompous ass, so I was glad he was the victim.
So are you voting for the orange pompous pussy grabber or the low energy curropt liar?

I guess you could libertarian and vote for the non-libertarian know-nothing.
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HoosierLars Nov 1 2016, 10:27 PM Post #20
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brumdog44
Nov 1 2016, 04:51 PM
HoosierLars
Oct 31 2016, 09:13 PM
sirbrianwilson
Oct 31 2016, 09:12 AM
Was there a phase 2?
Yeah, those were the Podesta ones. He's always struck me as a pompous ass, so I was glad he was the victim.
So are you voting for the orange pompous pussy grabber or the low energy curropt liar?

I guess you could libertarian and vote for the non-libertarian know-nothing.
I may decide to vote for Trump, but not endorse him. I know my endorsement would lead a lot of you guys to vote for him, but I want you to feel free to vote your conscience.
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boilergrad01 Nov 3 2016, 08:37 AM Post #21
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Trump even in CO and NH. The silver lining in a Trump is Hillary would have to realize she lost to that. Then watching the CNN taking heads explain it. Other than that not sure it would be a great thing.
Nothing beats an Astronaut
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HoosierLars Nov 3 2016, 08:54 AM Post #22
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Nov 3 2016, 08:37 AM
Trump even in CO and NH. The silver lining in a Trump is Hillary would have to realize she lost to that. Then watching the CNN taking heads explain it. Other than that not sure it would be a great thing.
I agree watching the alphabet networks' talking heads explode will be somewhat entertaining.
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brumdog44 Nov 3 2016, 10:40 PM Post #23
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boilergrad01
Nov 3 2016, 08:37 AM
Trump even in CO and NH. The silver lining in a Trump is Hillary would have to realize she lost to that. Then watching the CNN taking heads explain it. Other than that not sure it would be a great thing.
Wow....talk about cherry picking polls. Five polls in Colorado since Como's announcement and Clinton is still up in four of the five and tied in the other.

New Hampshire polls are pretty widespread and relatively even. But winning all swing states and New Hampshire still leaves him short. He has to win the swing states and flip some blue.
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boilergrad01 Nov 3 2016, 11:41 PM Post #24
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Nov 3 2016, 10:40 PM
boilergrad01
Nov 3 2016, 08:37 AM
Trump even in CO and NH. The silver lining in a Trump is Hillary would have to realize she lost to that. Then watching the CNN taking heads explain it. Other than that not sure it would be a great thing.
Wow....talk about cherry picking polls. Five polls in Colorado since Como's announcement and Clinton is still up in four of the five and tied in the other.

New Hampshire polls are pretty widespread and relatively even. But winning all swing states and New Hampshire still leaves him short. He has to win the swing states and flip some blue.
Brum what is the count if he wins all swing states and NH?
Edited by boilergrad01, Nov 3 2016, 11:43 PM.
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HoosierLars Nov 4 2016, 10:05 AM Post #25
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boilergrad01
Nov 3 2016, 11:41 PM
brumdog44
Nov 3 2016, 10:40 PM
boilergrad01
Nov 3 2016, 08:37 AM
Trump even in CO and NH. The silver lining in a Trump is Hillary would have to realize she lost to that. Then watching the CNN taking heads explain it. Other than that not sure it would be a great thing.
Wow....talk about cherry picking polls. Five polls in Colorado since Como's announcement and Clinton is still up in four of the five and tied in the other.

New Hampshire polls are pretty widespread and relatively even. But winning all swing states and New Hampshire still leaves him short. He has to win the swing states and flip some blue.
Brum what is the count if he wins all swing states and NH?
I think that gets Trump to 269.
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brumdog44 Nov 4 2016, 11:13 AM Post #26
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HoosierLars
Nov 4 2016, 10:05 AM
boilergrad01
Nov 3 2016, 11:41 PM
brumdog44
Nov 3 2016, 10:40 PM
boilergrad01
Nov 3 2016, 08:37 AM
Trump even in CO and NH. The silver lining in a Trump is Hillary would have to realize she lost to that. Then watching the CNN taking heads explain it. Other than that not sure it would be a great thing.
Wow....talk about cherry picking polls. Five polls in Colorado since Como's announcement and Clinton is still up in four of the five and tied in the other.

New Hampshire polls are pretty widespread and relatively even. But winning all swing states and New Hampshire still leaves him short. He has to win the swing states and flip some blue.
Brum what is the count if he wins all swing states and NH?
I think that gets Trump to 269.
269 would be all swing states plus the swing district in Maine and the swing district in Nebraska.
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brumdog44 Nov 4 2016, 06:16 PM Post #27
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Blips back to about 65/35. Seems to be stabalizing there.
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HoosierLars Nov 4 2016, 08:36 PM Post #28
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Nov 4 2016, 06:16 PM
Blips back to about 65/35. Seems to be stabalizing there.
Yup, we predicted 2:1 odds going into the general.
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brumdog44 Nov 4 2016, 10:14 PM Post #29
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HoosierLars
Nov 4 2016, 08:36 PM
brumdog44
Nov 4 2016, 06:16 PM
Blips back to about 65/35. Seems to be stabalizing there.
Yup, we predicted 2:1 odds going into the general.
I actually said at one point last week I thought he could get between 40 and 50 percent. I don't think he'll get there, think it will be around 35%.
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brumdog44 Nov 4 2016, 10:15 PM Post #30
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As the polls have really tightened in New Hampshire, I am adding them to the list. Also adding Maine and Nebraska swing districts -- don't put percentages there, just how you think the 2 electoral votes will total.
Edited by brumdog44, Nov 4 2016, 10:17 PM.
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