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30% Chance of beating Kansas; 19% of making Final Four
Tweet Topic Started: Mar 21 2017, 12:45 AM (181 Views)
HoosierLars Mar 21 2017, 12:45 AM Post #1
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Boiler Up!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-march-madness-predictions/?addata=espn:ncb:index

(Crap, I hate it when I make errors in the thread title--Doh!)
Edited by sirbrianwilson, Mar 21 2017, 11:34 AM.
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sirbrianwilson Mar 21 2017, 11:34 AM Post #2
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there ya go.
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dreachon Mar 21 2017, 12:20 PM Post #3
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30% seems awfully low. I don't buy that.
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dçamden03 Mar 21 2017, 12:40 PM Post #4
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dreachon
Mar 21 2017, 12:20 PM
30% seems awfully low. I don't buy that.
Kenpom has it at 37%, with a 4 point spread. The fact that it's basically a home game for Kansas is helping them on the computer models.
“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."

"I’d take him to the ends of the earth — I’d want him playing for me.” - Bo Ryan on Robbie Hummel

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sirbrianwilson Mar 21 2017, 12:54 PM Post #5
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Go Boilers
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mongo Mar 21 2017, 01:02 PM Post #6
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michigan favorites over Oregon?
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"Son, if you really want something in this life you have to work hard for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers."
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HoosierLars Mar 22 2017, 12:44 AM Post #7
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sirbrianwilson
Mar 21 2017, 11:34 AM
there ya go.
Thanks! :yourock:
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brumdog44 Mar 23 2017, 05:17 PM Post #8
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dçamden03
Mar 21 2017, 12:40 PM
dreachon
Mar 21 2017, 12:20 PM
30% seems awfully low. I don't buy that.
Kenpom has it at 37%, with a 4 point spread. The fact that it's basically a home game for Kansas is helping them on the computer models.
Does Pom count it as a home game? I would think he counts it as a neutral court game.

Sagarin has Kansas as a 2 point favorite on a neutral court, 5 on a home court.
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dçamden03 Mar 23 2017, 05:52 PM Post #9
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brumdog44
Mar 23 2017, 05:17 PM
dçamden03
Mar 21 2017, 12:40 PM
dreachon
Mar 21 2017, 12:20 PM
30% seems awfully low. I don't buy that.
Kenpom has it at 37%, with a 4 point spread. The fact that it's basically a home game for Kansas is helping them on the computer models.
Does Pom count it as a home game? I would think he counts it as a neutral court game.

Sagarin has Kansas as a 2 point favorite on a neutral court, 5 on a home court.
Pom has it as a semi-home game. This will be their 5th game there this year. Spread is down to 3 now with same win%.

I think that Purdue has some mismatches it can take advantage of, but they are going to have to play very cleanly when it comes to turnovers and rebounding to win. Those silly stretches of turnovers they seem to have can turn into a 10-12 pt run vs a team like KU.
“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."

"I’d take him to the ends of the earth — I’d want him playing for me.” - Bo Ryan on Robbie Hummel

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