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bracketology
Tweet Topic Started: Mar 6 2018, 12:03 PM (263 Views)
HoosierLars Mar 6 2018, 12:03 PM Post #1
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I will be pretty happy if Lunardi is right, and we get the Midwest #2. That was a difficult loss to UM, but hopefully we can regroup and make a deep tourney run.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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mongo Mar 6 2018, 12:07 PM Post #2
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My predictions:

Purdue - 2
Michigan state - 2
Michigan - 3
Ohio State - 5
Penn State - 10
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brumdog44 Mar 6 2018, 05:18 PM Post #3
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I would agree that is what they all deserve to be but I’m not confident that Penn State will get in. I will say that, additionally, a Big Ten team finishing 13-5 in conference should be I. Over teams finishing 8-10 in the Big 12. Yes,the Big 12 is better than the Big Ten this year....Sagarin will tell you the difference on average is 3 points per game. 3 points per game doesn’t turn an 8-10 team into a 13-5 team.
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dçamden03 Mar 6 2018, 07:55 PM Post #4
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brumdog44
Mar 6 2018, 05:18 PM
I would agree that is what they all deserve to be but I’m not confident that Penn State will get in. I will say that, additionally, a Big Ten team finishing 13-5 in conference should be I. Over teams finishing 8-10 in the Big 12. Yes,the Big 12 is better than the Big Ten this year....Sagarin will tell you the difference on average is 3 points per game. 3 points per game doesn’t turn an 8-10 team into a 13-5 team.
Penn State does not deserve to get in. Ignore the conference record, as I don’t think that’s even considered unless it wins you the conference then you get a bump.

Penn State beat nobody out of conference and lost to Rider. They had OSUs number but beat zero other tournament teams and 1 bubble team.

Nebraska played better comp OOC but beat none of them. And lost to UCF and St Johns. They beat 1 tournament team. And 1 bubble team.

The bubble teams listed above are themselves.
“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."

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brumdog44 Mar 6 2018, 11:27 PM Post #5
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dçamden03
Mar 6 2018, 07:55 PM
brumdog44
Mar 6 2018, 05:18 PM
I would agree that is what they all deserve to be but I’m not confident that Penn State will get in. I will say that, additionally, a Big Ten team finishing 13-5 in conference should be I. Over teams finishing 8-10 in the Big 12. Yes,the Big 12 is better than the Big Ten this year....Sagarin will tell you the difference on average is 3 points per game. 3 points per game doesn’t turn an 8-10 team into a 13-5 team.
Penn State does not deserve to get in. Ignore the conference record, as I don’t think that’s even considered unless it wins you the conference then you get a bump.

Penn State beat nobody out of conference and lost to Rider. They had OSUs number but beat zero other tournament teams and 1 bubble team.

Nebraska played better comp OOC but beat none of them. And lost to UCF and St Johns. They beat 1 tournament team. And 1 bubble team.

The bubble teams listed above are themselves.
Oklahoma lost 7 of their last 9 and 10 of their last 14. The committee has said that how a team finishes is a factor.....in their last nine games, Oklahoma has 2 wins -- both at home -- against one team going nowhere and one other bubble team.

Let's take a list at KenPom and BPI, which I consider to be the best rating systems available. Which is amazing is that even though their algorithms are different, their overall ratings are so consistent. The whole 'well, this team lost to Rider' is the type of thinking that the NCAA erroneously using, overemphasizing a single game result.

Let's take the 8 teams Lunardi has on the right side and the 8 teams on the wrong side of the bubble. I'll give the KenPom and BPI ratings since we both know RPI is shit. I'll follow this with the average of the two ratings. You tell me which teams should be in.
Teams Lunardi has in, followed by BPI/KenPom/average:
Kansas State 48/44/46
St.Mary's 30/28/29
Providence 73/72/72.5
Baylor 35/33/34
Texas 40/40/40
USC 49/46/47.5
UCLA 53/49/51
Alabama 54/53/53.5

Teams Lunardi has as the first 8 out:
Louisville 34/34/34
Marquette 44/50/47
Oklahoma State 58/57/57.5
Notre Dame 31/32/31.5
Syracuse 50/51/50.5
Penn State 26/29/27.5
Boise State 55/52/53.5
Nebraska 63/56/59.5

Oklahoma isn't listed by Lunardi as being on the bubble...which makes no sense. Their ratings are 42/43/42.5

So looking at the 16 teams Lunardi has on the bubble and Oklahoma -- which he does not -- the order that teams SHOULD be rated according to BPI and Ken Pom come out as:

Teams that should be in:
1. PENN STATE 27.5
2. St. Mary's 29
3. Notre Dame 31.5
4. Baylor 34
Louisville 34
6. Texas 40
7. Oklahoma 42.5
8. Kansas State 46
9. Marquette 47
--------------------
Teams missing the cut:
10. USC 47.5
11. Syracuse 50.5
12. UCLA 51
13. Alabama 53.5
Boise St 53.5
15. Oklahoma St 57.5
16. Nebraska 59.5
17. Providence 72.5

Seriously....by what logic should Penn State not deserve to be in? The actual metrics don't bear it out. Penn State gets penalized because they don't match the NCAA archaic method of evaluating teams -- methods that make a 1 point loss to Rider (who actually won 22 games and won their conference in the regular season) a disqualifying factor. The same committee that will penalize them because they beat a top 20 team three times instead of three different ones once (and one that embarassed Michigan State and beat Purdue on the road). They get penalized because of a meaningless RPI rating.

Now, serious question: after viewing the KenPom and BPI data, would you still claim that Penn State does not deserve to be in the tournament? I mean, you've stated the warts of Penn State.....but every team on the list has warts, yet none of their overall metrics have matched Penn State's by KenPom or BPI measures.
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eelbor Mar 8 2018, 04:18 PM Post #6
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brumdog44
Mar 6 2018, 05:18 PM
I would agree that is what they all deserve to be but I’m not confident that Penn State will get in. I will say that, additionally, a Big Ten team finishing 13-5 in conference should be I. Over teams finishing 8-10 in the Big 12. Yes,the Big 12 is better than the Big Ten this year....Sagarin will tell you the difference on average is 3 points per game. 3 points per game doesn’t turn an 8-10 team into a 13-5 team.
3 points a game would give us two additional overtimes(potential wins), and one more guaranteed win
Tennessee 78 Purdue 75
W. KY 77 Purdue 73
OSU 64 Purdue 63
MSU 68 Purdue 65
Whisky 57 Purdue 53
Mich 75 Purdue 66


Would two more wins make us a 1 seed?
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brumdog44 Mar 8 2018, 05:57 PM Post #7
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eelbor
Mar 8 2018, 04:18 PM
brumdog44
Mar 6 2018, 05:18 PM
I would agree that is what they all deserve to be but I’m not confident that Penn State will get in. I will say that, additionally, a Big Ten team finishing 13-5 in conference should be I. Over teams finishing 8-10 in the Big 12. Yes,the Big 12 is better than the Big Ten this year....Sagarin will tell you the difference on average is 3 points per game. 3 points per game doesn’t turn an 8-10 team into a 13-5 team.
3 points a game would give us two additional overtimes(potential wins), and one more guaranteed win
Tennessee 78 Purdue 75
W. KY 77 Purdue 73
OSU 64 Purdue 63
MSU 68 Purdue 65
Whisky 57 Purdue 53
Mich 75 Purdue 66


Would two more wins make us a 1 seed?
Why did you include games that were decided by more than 3 points?

Anyway, 3 points/game doesn't really work like that....however I understand your point. And, yes, I would say two more wins would get Purdue a one seed. The question, though,isn't what giving Purdue 3 extra points per game does but rather what losing 3 points per game would do (which is what would happen on average if they played in the Big 12). If Purdue were to lose three points every game, there would be only one additional loss on their schedule (at Michigan)....so they'd be 27-7 (and 14-4 in conference). I'd say that compares favorably well to the best team in the best conference (Kansas),who sit at 25-7 and 13-5 in conference. I think that's why you see Purdue at 5 on KenPom and Kansas at 13. Unfortunately for Purdue, I don't see the Boilers getting a one seed but Kansas definitely has a decent shot at it.

The BracketMatrix currently has Kansas with an average seed of 1.20 and Purdue at 2.25. In the 76 online prediction brackets today, Kansas is a 1 seed in 60 of them and a 2 seed in 16; Purdue is a 2 seed in 54, a 3 seed in 18,and a 4 seed in 1 (don't shoot the messenger, I'm just reporting it). While I don't believe that Kansas' resume is really better than Purdue's, I agree with what the predictions of the seeds are based on what people think the NCAA committee will do.

In terms of the question about what three points would do to Oklahoma and Nebraska in conference games (and again, it's just a scattershot approach as I know 3 points/game isn't a direct translation)....but if we added 3 points to Oklahoma's conference games scores to adjust for the harder conference to give them a 'Big Ten' conference record, they would still just be 10-8 compared to Nebraska's 13-5 (although it would put them ahead of Penn State's 9-9). If we imagined that Nebraska was in the Big 12 and thus removed three points per game from the, they would be 12-6.
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eelbor Mar 8 2018, 07:50 PM Post #8
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:P I just put in all losses. It’s not often there is enough room.
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boilergrad01 Mar 9 2018, 05:29 PM Post #9
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UNC is going to lose tonight. It will be interesting if a 10 loss team gets a 2 seed. I think tonight could really shift the top two lines

Duke- IMO if they beat UNC tonight and Virginia tomorrow would have a strong case for a one seed. Especially if Villanova loses to Butler tonight. I think Duke would take the final one seed.

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brumdog44 Mar 9 2018, 09:13 PM Post #10
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North Carolina is a freaking 6 seed in their conference tournament. On four different occasions they lost back to back games in conference. IMHO, they are not deserving of a 2 seed.
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mongo Mar 10 2018, 12:20 AM Post #11
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No way UNC should ever have been considered for a 2...this isn’t my hatred of them coming through, objectively no way.
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eelbor Mar 10 2018, 11:13 AM Post #12
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Mar 9 2018, 05:29 PM
UNC is going to lose tonight. It will be interesting if a 10 loss team gets a 2 seed. I think tonight could really shift the top two lines

Duke- IMO if they beat UNC tonight and Virginia tomorrow would have a strong case for a one seed. Especially if Villanova loses to Butler tonight. I think Duke would take the final one seed.

Well that didn’t work ;) But I always enjoy seeing Duke lose.
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"Liberal, shmiberal. That should be a new word. Shmiberal: one who is assumed liberal, just because he's a professional whiner in the newspaper. If you'll read the subtext for many of those old strips, you'll find the heart of an old-fashioned Libertarian. And I'd be a Libertarian, if they weren't all a bunch of tax-dodging professional whiners." - Berkeley Breathed


Meat is Murder. Sweet, delicious murder.
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brumdog44 Mar 10 2018, 01:13 PM Post #13
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Grayson Allen with another cheap move yesterday as he gets a flagrant one for a hip check of a player not even involved in a play.
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brumdog44 Mar 11 2018, 05:57 PM Post #14
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Looking at Purdue's bracket by KenPom rating:
1 Villanova #2
2 Purdue #5
3 Texas Tech #12
4 Wichita State #20
5 West Virginia #13
6 Florida #23
7 Arkansas #37
8 Va Tech #32
9 Alabama #51
10 Butler #25
11 St Bona #69 or UCLA #48
12 Murray State #59
13 Marshall #114
14 SF Austin #111
15 CSFullerton #153
16 LIU #251 or Radford #170
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brumdog44 Mar 13 2018, 10:42 AM Post #15
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538 gives Purdue a 20% chance at reaching the final four, 10% of reaching the championship, and 5% chance of winning the title.

% in order of most likely to win the title:
Virgina (1 seed): 18%
Villanova (1 seed): 17%
Duke (2 seed): 10%
Kansas (1 seed): 8%
Cincinnati (2 seed): 6%
Michigan State (3 seed): 6%
North Carolina (2 seed): 5%
Purdue (2 seed): 5%
Gonzaga (4 seed): 4%
Xavier (1 seed): 3%
Michigan (3 seed):2%
Tennessee (3 seed): 2%
Kentucky (5 seed): 2%
West Virginia (5 seed):2%

All other teams are at 1% or less.
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