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Drilling for Oil - The 10 Year Myth!
Tweet Topic Started: Jul 16 2008, 10:17 AM (519 Views)
yawnzzz Jul 17 2008, 11:03 AM Post #16
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I would love it if this board were the real world and you questioned me on this subject or made a comment like that in a room full of my peers. I don't like to get personal or self-promote on here either, but lets just say that you would be laughed out of the room in a heartbeat.

Now, this $2.00 number is a theory that I developed based on my own research, however I have also heard a few economists and other experts use the same number on radio/television programs. I believe Newt uses $2.00 as well. Anyway, I have watched the futures trading trends and their patterns respective to the dollar and other long-term commodities, such as gold and silver, which is how I determined my number. For example, gold always trades about 10:1 vs. crude. This is a ratio that will always remain about the same because of the commodity nature of the two products. It will, however swing left or right sometimes to extremes based on certain factors such as supply (or perceived) supply issues, global tensions, or some form of natural disaster. We are experiencing 2 of the 3 right now causing a scare in the oil industry = increased upward pressure from speculators and supply sources.

In order to determine potential market price of a commodity that trades in futures, you need to figure out what the value would be in a cash only market, meaning buyers would actually have to take inventory. Based on the other basic economic commodities, crude's cash price would be about $90 per barrel, equalling about $2.57 per gallon for fuel. Now, looking further you realize that those basic economic commodities are also trading higher than their cash value right now. The reason is that the oil price is causing inflationary concerns leading to investors flocking to hedge their bets on other known commodities. The reason the commodities, such as gold, are not rising at the ridiculous rates that crude is, however, is because there are no known external issues with those products to cause a scare, as there are with crude. The rise in commodity pricing is purely based on hedging for inflation.

Now, when speculators start truly trading downward (as soon as we make a committment to drill), the pendulum will actualliy swing the other way for a while, because when trading in futures it has to. Everyone either has to get out at market price, or they will experience massive margin calls...either way the selling pressure will force crude below market for a period of time, probably for about a year. You can typically expect a short of about 25% to 40% when that happens, so playing on the safe side at 25%, you would end up with $67 crude, equaling fuel at $1.92. It would eventually (in about a year) swing up a bit, back around the $2.50 mark, which is were it would safely stay for quite some time, while we are developing alternatives, which by the way just the presence of alternative research will keep the crude price in check.

Any more questions Brum?
So, you're suggesting that drilling will not only stop future speculation, but drop the price below current market value.... it's just as likely that drilling will only match the increasing future speculation to cause the price of gas to remain fixed where it's at if it even matches the increasing demand. It's just as likely that it will only marginally decrease future speculation.
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eelbor Jul 17 2008, 11:34 AM Post #17
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It is also likely that increased production and lower prices would in fact decrease further exploration. In addition, marginal wells that have been operational are in danger of no longer being economically viable to run and are capped. It is possible these leases will be abandoned and the infrastructure to pump it out will be removed, and a significant amount of the oil will no longer have any likelyhood of making it to market. Currently 1/6th of the oil pumped in the US comes from a marginal well.
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Mr Gray Jul 17 2008, 11:39 AM Post #18
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I would love it if this board were the real world and you questioned me on this subject or made a comment like that in a room full of my peers. I don't like to get personal or self-promote on here either, but lets just say that you would be laughed out of the room in a heartbeat.

Now, this $2.00 number is a theory that I developed based on my own research, however I have also heard a few economists and other experts use the same number on radio/television programs. I believe Newt uses $2.00 as well. Anyway, I have watched the futures trading trends and their patterns respective to the dollar and other long-term commodities, such as gold and silver, which is how I determined my number. For example, gold always trades about 10:1 vs. crude. This is a ratio that will always remain about the same because of the commodity nature of the two products. It will, however swing left or right sometimes to extremes based on certain factors such as supply (or perceived) supply issues, global tensions, or some form of natural disaster. We are experiencing 2 of the 3 right now causing a scare in the oil industry = increased upward pressure from speculators and supply sources.

In order to determine potential market price of a commodity that trades in futures, you need to figure out what the value would be in a cash only market, meaning buyers would actually have to take inventory. Based on the other basic economic commodities, crude's cash price would be about $90 per barrel, equalling about $2.57 per gallon for fuel. Now, looking further you realize that those basic economic commodities are also trading higher than their cash value right now. The reason is that the oil price is causing inflationary concerns leading to investors flocking to hedge their bets on other known commodities. The reason the commodities, such as gold, are not rising at the ridiculous rates that crude is, however, is because there are no known external issues with those products to cause a scare, as there are with crude. The rise in commodity pricing is purely based on hedging for inflation.

Now, when speculators start truly trading downward (as soon as we make a committment to drill), the pendulum will actualliy swing the other way for a while, because when trading in futures it has to. Everyone either has to get out at market price, or they will experience massive margin calls...either way the selling pressure will force crude below market for a period of time, probably for about a year. You can typically expect a short of about 25% to 40% when that happens, so playing on the safe side at 25%, you would end up with $67 crude, equaling fuel at $1.92. It would eventually (in about a year) swing up a bit, back around the $2.50 mark, which is were it would safely stay for quite some time, while we are developing alternatives, which by the way just the presence of alternative research will keep the crude price in check.

Any more questions Brum?
So, you're suggesting that drilling will not only stop future speculation, but drop the price below current market value.... it's just as likely that drilling will only match the increasing future speculation to cause the price of gas to remain fixed where it's at if it even matches the increasing demand. It's just as likely that it will only marginally decrease future speculation.
It will not stop speculation, but speculators don't just drive cost up, they also drive it down. Right now, there are billions of barrels that have been purchased on futures at $100, $110, $120, $130, & $140 (and in between obviously). When supply pressures are relieved by domestic drilling and/or alternative energy sources (I would like to see both), those speculators will have to sell at their respecive prices in order to both take profit and cut losses in some cases. The selling will cause a downward price cycle in the futures market, causing it to actually go below "market" price for a time. The same thing that is happening now, but in reverse.
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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brumdog44 Jul 17 2008, 03:14 PM Post #19
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aaronk2727
Jul 17 2008, 12:08 AM
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Jul 16 2008, 05:14 PM
aaronk2727
Jul 16 2008, 04:23 PM
brumdog44
Jul 16 2008, 04:07 PM
Please provide links in which economists are saying that offshore drilling would drop the cost of gas to $2. I'm just not buying that alone would do so.

http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2008/06/would-offshore-drilling-bring-down-gas.html

While I think that the above article understates the drop, a drop to $2 a gallon is simply a pipe dream.
geez, I just read that article. It has too many problems for me to even begin. Would you quit googling articles that attempt to support you, or refute me Brum. You obviously are clueless on economic issues.
THEN PROVIDE SOMETHING TANGIBLE EVIDENCE RATHER THAN SOME RANDOMLY MADE UP FIGURE.

I flat out stated that there were problems with the article that I posted which is WHY I ASKED YOU TO PROVIDE LINKS TO THE $2 COMMENT. I'm not looking to "support me" -- I'm on record saying that I FAVOR offshore drilling.

Hell, I can give you Fox News links stating that offshore drilling would have a negligible effect on gas prices.

http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Jun27/0,4670,McCainAdWatch,00.html

When I'm clueless on an issue, I research it and get myself informed. You just make up things.
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You just make up things.
I would love it if this board were the real world and you questioned me on this subject or made a comment like that in a room full of my peers. I don't like to get personal or self-promote on here either, but lets just say that you would be laughed out of the room in a heartbeat.

Now, this $2.00 number is a theory that I developed based on my own research, however I have also heard a few economists and other experts use the same number on radio/television programs. I believe Newt uses $2.00 as well. Anyway, I have watched the futures trading trends and their patterns respective to the dollar and other long-term commodities, such as gold and silver, which is how I determined my number. For example, gold always trades about 10:1 vs. crude. This is a ratio that will always remain about the same because of the commodity nature of the two products. It will, however swing left or right sometimes to extremes based on certain factors such as supply (or perceived) supply issues, global tensions, or some form of natural disaster. We are experiencing 2 of the 3 right now causing a scare in the oil industry = increased upward pressure from speculators and supply sources.

In order to determine potential market price of a commodity that trades in futures, you need to figure out what the value would be in a cash only market, meaning buyers would actually have to take inventory. Based on the other basic economic commodities, crude's cash price would be about $90 per barrel, equalling about $2.57 per gallon for fuel. Now, looking further you realize that those basic economic commodities are also trading higher than their cash value right now. The reason is that the oil price is causing inflationary concerns leading to investors flocking to hedge their bets on other known commodities. The reason the commodities, such as gold, are not rising at the ridiculous rates that crude is, however, is because there are no known external issues with those products to cause a scare, as there are with crude. The rise in commodity pricing is purely based on hedging for inflation.

Now, when speculators start truly trading downward (as soon as we make a committment to drill), the pendulum will actualliy swing the other way for a while, because when trading in futures it has to. Everyone either has to get out at market price, or they will experience massive margin calls...either way the selling pressure will force crude below market for a period of time, probably for about a year. You can typically expect a short of about 25% to 40% when that happens, so playing on the safe side at 25%, you would end up with $67 crude, equaling fuel at $1.92. It would eventually (in about a year) swing up a bit, back around the $2.50 mark, which is were it would safely stay for quite some time, while we are developing alternatives, which by the way just the presence of alternative research will keep the crude price in check.

Any more questions Brum?
How would you know the real world, aaron? You obviously don't live in it from comments you have posted here.

And believe, no one wants to be a room of you and your peers...although if there were an infinite number of you, they say one of you would type a Shakespeare play.

I've asked you to link up ANY evidence that gas would drop to $2 based on offshore drilling. You've given an incredibly non-numerical look at the breakdown...'blah, blah, blah,....*poof*...crude is $90 a barrel.'
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Mr Gray Jul 17 2008, 03:22 PM Post #20
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Jul 17 2008, 03:14 PM
How would you know the real world, aaron? You obviously don't live in it from comments you have posted here.

And believe, no one wants to be a room of you and your peers...although if there were an infinite number of you, they say one of you would type a Shakespeare play.

I've asked you to link up ANY evidence that gas would drop to $2 based on offshore drilling. You've given an incredibly non-numerical look at the breakdown...'blah, blah, blah,....*poof*...crude is $90 a barrel.'
Brum, your a school teacher....seriously....I'm not in the real world. I am out in the real world employing people, paying enough taxes to cover your salary for the next 10 years, keeping the economy moving, dealing with the issues that affect business, and meeting/discussing issues like this with many of the smartest, most successful, and wealthiest people in the state, EVERY SINGLE DAY. I'm in the real world, you are in a bubble!

There is no evidence that gas will go to $2.00. There is also no evidence that it won't go to $10 if we don't do something, so should we just sit on our ass? Economic issues like this are based on educated hypothesis, historical data, and fundamental understanding of trading and commodities. Clearly something you don't understand, and instead would rather try to bash me. It really doesn't matter what I post at this point, you are going to disagree regardless.....and your the open minded one right.....yeah :rofl:

Let me try some lame attempt at humor like you did
Score: aaronk 295 Brum 14

Man, I started to feel like an idiot halfway through typing that score....I can't imagine what it would feel like to be like you all the time.
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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brumdog44 Jul 17 2008, 03:42 PM Post #21
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JESUS H CHRIST.....I HAVE TOLD YOU TIME AND AGAIN I FAVOR OFFSHORE DRILLING. Get that through your pointy head. What I have asked to do is provide an inkling of evidence from any worthy economist that the price could possibly drop that low....a simple request WHICH YOU STILL HAVEN'T DONE.

And now you show your true colors. I see...you pay enough taxes to cover my salary for the next ten years. You meet with some of the wealthiest, most successful people in the state EVERY SINGLE DAY (your emphasis). Got it and it finally comes out....your feeling of self importance comes from money. But teaching isn't the real world....educating children coming from an incredible multitude of backgrounds, trying to get them prepared not only for the workplace, future education and their careers -- that's not the real world.






Edited by brumdog44, Jul 17 2008, 03:43 PM.
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Mr Gray Jul 17 2008, 04:00 PM Post #22
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Jul 17 2008, 03:42 PM
JESUS H CHRIST.....I HAVE TOLD YOU TIME AND AGAIN I FAVOR OFFSHORE DRILLING. Get that through your pointy head. What I have asked to do is provide an inkling of evidence from any worthy economist that the price could possibly drop that low....a simple request WHICH YOU STILL HAVEN'T DONE.

And now you show your true colors. I see...you pay enough taxes to cover my salary for the next ten years. You meet with some of the wealthiest, most successful people in the state EVERY SINGLE DAY (your emphasis). Got it and it finally comes out....your feeling of self importance comes from money. But teaching isn't the real world....educating children coming from an incredible multitude of backgrounds, trying to get them prepared not only for the workplace, future education and their careers -- that's not the real world.






I have given you credible economic analysis. Do you want the names of my economics professors, or the authors of the books that I study on this? I have heard others say it on various shows, but I don't know if they have websites, and I don't even know their names, except Newt.

And no, while being a school teacher is a respectible and extremely important occupation in our country, it isn't the real world IMO, or at least not as "real" as the world of a small business owner. Almost every policy decision made can have a dramatic impact on my income and my ability to provide for my family. The same cannot be said for government employees, in particularly public educators. No offense intended Brum, because once again I respect your occupation, but it is difficult for someone to understand unless they had experienced what I have experienced, but to say that I am not in tune with the real world is obsurd.

Self-worth is not based on money, however the fact that I am involved daily with some of the smartest people around and discuss these types of economic issues does lend credibility to my analysis...it isn't just made up as you would suggest. Not to mention the fact that I am a partner in a company where these issues have a direct impact on our bottom line daily, therefore it is critical that we study and understand the markets, including commodities in order to achieve the success that we have been able to.
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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mongo Jul 17 2008, 04:14 PM Post #23
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AaronK,

here is my take on the oil problem. The alternative energy ideas where ignored for to long. We as a country have done very little for to long. I believe that to be a fact.

The gas and energy prices are finacially killing us. I believe that to be a fact

The alternative energy crowd sees this as the best chance to motivate the people. This is probably true.

America has seldom been a proactive country. We are not proactive in business. We are not proactive in our personal lives. We are not proactive people.

$4 a gallon gas has motivated us to find new ways to power trnsportation. Some assclowns we call Liberals are afraid if we lower the gas prices back to $2 we will not continue to find alternative power for trasportation



You're an idiot. I believe that to be a fact.
Edited by mongo, Jul 17 2008, 04:16 PM.
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brumdog44 Jul 17 2008, 04:19 PM Post #24
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My wife and I owned a small business for seven years. Don't assume that I haven't had to operate in a business setting.

But I am not buying your assessment on the price of gas plummeting to $2 per gallon, nor do I think you'll find economists worth their weight in salt who agree with you.
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Mr Gray Jul 17 2008, 04:23 PM Post #25
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My wife and I owned a small business for seven years. Don't assume that I haven't had to operate in a business setting.

But I am not buying your assessment on the price of gas plummeting to $2 per gallon, nor do I think you'll find economists worth their weight in salt who agree with you.
gas was less than $2.00 for a while, less than one year ago. What, of the fundamentals, has changed so dramatically since then that cannot be restored if supply pressure were removed from the global market and speculation?
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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brumdog44 Jul 17 2008, 04:32 PM Post #26
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It hasn't been under $2 in the last 12 months.

http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/

http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/INavg.asp

Low point in Indiana's average was $2.75 in the past 12 months.
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Mr Gray Jul 17 2008, 04:33 PM Post #27
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My wife and I owned a small business for seven years. Don't assume that I haven't had to operate in a business setting.

But I am not buying your assessment on the price of gas plummeting to $2 per gallon, nor do I think you'll find economists worth their weight in salt who agree with you.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gas-could-fall-2-if/story.aspx?guid=%7B2673C102-68E0-41D9-9C9A-10EE2E723948%7D
Hmmm...looks like they agree with me. Different means, but same end, and oddly enough it looks like they are estimating nearly the exact same cash crude price that I have been talking about. Am I still just making things up?

http://onenewsnow.com/Politics/Default.aspx?id=180276
Although I don't know Michele Bachmann's educational background, I would assume that she had some economic anylists support, but none the less here is another person that agrees with me.

Do your own analysis Brum....don't just trust everything the "experts" tell you, because many, if not ALL of the "experts" that make their way to the media have an agenda in mind, and they will manipulate their analysis to support that agenda. It really isn't as complicated as you seem to think it is if you take the time to really look at it, and have a good understanding of economics.
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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brumdog44 Jul 17 2008, 04:37 PM Post #28
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gas_Prices_Medium_Term.png

Chart, average national price hasn't been below $2 since 2005.

Hey, I'd love to be wrong and see that offshore drilling would drop the cost of gas below $2. I just don't see it.

I'll read the articles. That is all I was asking for in the first place. I'm not simply going to rely on human recollection -- i.e., you said that in the past 12 months that you paid $2 per gallon at the pump. Gas prices bottomed out nationally around February of 2007, but that was about $2.15 nationally and was a year and a half ago.
Edited by brumdog44, Jul 17 2008, 04:41 PM.
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brumdog44 Jul 17 2008, 04:47 PM Post #29
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The first article said nothing about offshore drilling dropping price...it said that retail gas prices would be cut in half a law was passed limiting speculation.

The second article is talking about drilling in ANWR, a completely separate issue than offshore drilling.

My contention was that offshore drilling alone would not bring gas prices down anywhere near $2 -- which you still haven't provided any evidence to. The best you've come up with are articles that have nothing to do with offshore drilling.

Edited by brumdog44, Jul 17 2008, 05:58 PM.
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yawnzzz Jul 17 2008, 05:01 PM Post #30
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gas-could-fall-2-if/story.aspx?guid=%7B2673C102-68E0-41D9-9C9A-10EE2E723948%7D
Hmmm...looks like they agree with me. Different means, but same end, and oddly enough it looks like they are estimating nearly the exact same cash crude price that I have been talking about. Am I still just making things up?


That has absolutely nothing to do with off-shore drilling. Seems funny that you bring that up after arguing with me in a previous thread about how the free market balances itself, and now when it's the only reputable economic article you can find, it suddenly goes with your point of view?

Quote:
 
http://onenewsnow.com/Politics/Default.aspx?id=180276
Although I don't know Michele Bachmann's educational background, I would assume that she had some economic anylists support, but none the less here is another person that agrees with me.


A rookie congresswomen is your other economic source? You're lack of ability to find any economist that agrees with you isn't that surprising.

There's absolutely positively NO way that prices will ever fall below market value without government regulation. The ONLY time prices go below market value is when future speculation perceives an end where the value will continue to drop. There's going to continue to be more and more countries needing oil, and even if an alternative fuel source is developed, there are hundreds of countries' whose citizens will not be able to afford it.

Aaron, you've completely made me lose respect for you in this thread. I have no doubt in my mind that you have no clue what you're talking about, and it's one thing to propose something as opinion, but to belittle other people when you're own opinion is very uneducated is flat-out ridiculous.
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