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| Drilling for Oil - The 10 Year Myth! | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Jul 16 2008, 10:17 AM (518 Views) | |
| Mr Gray | Jul 17 2008, 09:02 PM Post #31 |
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Faithful, I know more about this subject than you could ever imagine. If you want to gang up with brum to discredit me, that's fine, but all you show me is that you are the one that has no clue. Grain prices drop below market value all the time, and did for years in the 90s and early part of this century, and they trade on futures just like gold, silver, crude...etc. I make a large portion of my income by trading on futures (grain mostly) and consequently have become very very educated on it. Can you say that? BTW, those articles are not my "economic sources". They are just a couple articles I googled up showing that someone else feels gas could be $2.00 per gallon. I am my source for my $2.00 theory, but obviously that isn't good enough for you. Oddly enough, it is good enough for my shareholders who make a LOT of money from my same economic thinking and patterns. But seriously, why trust me.... Edited by Mr Gray, Jul 17 2008, 09:06 PM.
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![]() The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism. | |
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| BoilerNLA | Jul 17 2008, 09:13 PM Post #32 |
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why aren't the oil companies drilling on the 60+million acres of leased land currently? offshore drilling is not the answer. California will not allow it (hopefully) It's an environmental disaster waiting to happen, with no short term gains to our dependence on oil. (OK, lars and aaron... I'm sure you'll give me shit about this B) |
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| Mr Gray | Jul 17 2008, 09:18 PM Post #33 |
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I have been talking about domestic drilling, not just off-shore drilling. That would include ANWR, and the 10-year time frame is still a myth. The reason the 1st article is relevent is that eliminating speculation has the same affect that I have been speaking about, and that is coming up with the market or cash value of crude. That is ultimately where the price will be, but with speculation it varies up and down based on market conditions, but ultimately returns to an average equal to market price over time. That is ABSOLUTELY how speculation and futures markets work. If ending speculation would bring prices to $2.00 per gallon right now, creating supply and putting selling pressure on speculators will do the same thing, but would actually drop it below market value for a period of time, ultimately landing at an average price equally market value. Once again, look at the other main-stay commodities and evaluate it....the highest price that market (cash) value could be is $2.57, but I think it is actually lower than that. |
![]() The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism. | |
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| Mr Gray | Jul 17 2008, 09:33 PM Post #34 |
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NLA, that is probably one of the most misunderstood statistics on the subject, but is often used and perpetuated by environmentalist groups to prevent drilling. If you won't want drilling because you are afraid it will mess up the environment, that is fine, but I just don't like it when they use misleading stats like this. Much of the land leased to oil companies has already been explored and determined not to carry enough recoverable oil to justify drilling. This is in stark contrast to the other 97% of currently banned offshore resources and areas with shale oil, where enormous quantities are known to exist. There are laws in place to prevent the oil companies from "stockpiling" leases and oil to drive prices upward. The Mineral Leasing Act (for onshore production): Section 17(e) stipulates that an oil company must have a producing well within 10 years or surrender the leases. Source: 30 U.S.C. 226(e) The Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act: (for offshore production): Stipulates that an oil company must produce energy between 5 to 10 years (in the government’s discretion) or surrender the lease. Source: 43 U.S.C. 1337(b) NLA, I love the environment and nature as much as anybody, so I hope that what they say is true that the new technology is very safe for the environment. Did you ever answer my question as to if you would be OK with off-shore drilling in Cali if it was 20 miles out and not visible from the beach at all? |
![]() The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism. | |
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| BoilerNLA | Jul 17 2008, 10:05 PM Post #35 |
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I am against off-shore drilling off the coast of California, and I don't trust those that say it will be "safe" for the environment, nor do I think the benefits will outweigh the risks and costs involved. I thought I had already answered that question. |
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| brumdog44 | Jul 17 2008, 10:25 PM Post #36 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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My intial direct quote: Please provide links in which economists are saying that offshore drilling would drop the cost of gas to $2. I'm just not buying that alone would do so. And 30 some posts later you say..'well, I was including ANWR.' And even with that, you've provided one link by a rookie Minnesota legislature as your 'proof.' And, yes, you as your source for gas dropping to $2 a gallon isn't good enough. Now why is it that you want to put government restrictions on speculation while you continually call for less government intervention? And why is it when you couldn't find any fact based research on the subject you suddently put restriction on speculation into play? |
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| Mr Gray | Jul 18 2008, 07:40 AM Post #37 |
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I don't want to restrict speculation, I just used that article to show that others feel the true market price is about $2.00. Even though I have given you detailed analysis of why I think it will reach $2.00, you feel that isn't good enough, apparently because I don't have a website that claims that I am an expert. That doesn't surprise me Brum, because I believe in self-reliance and my own ability to figure things otu and get things done, while you tend to want to rely on others and assume that the average person isn't quite good enough to get things done on their own. That's too bad because I can assure you my analysis rivals any "expert" you could drum up. |
![]() The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism. | |
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| Mr Gray | Jul 18 2008, 08:40 AM Post #38 |
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I watched this on CNBC, and I am very glad they posted in online. WOW....JUST WOW!!! http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=795927426 $40 to $50 immediately....that would bring it to $80 - $90, equalling gas prices of $2.28 to $2.57. That sounds familiar. That would equal gas prices of well less than $2.00...as low as $1.14. Maybe I was being to conservative? Bill Smith, President, CEO, and senior portfolio manager at SAM advisers. http://www.smithassetmanagement.com/corporate.asp OK Brum & faithful, although this is a sweet victory for me, I am not going to gloat. I do, however, hope that you guys are grown-ups and man enough to admit that your criticism of me might have been a little harsh and offer me an apology for basically calling me an idiot for my analysis. I realize that we disagree on a lot of things and it will probably be your instict to discredit me at every turn, however like I said before I do this stuff (admittedly to a lesser degree) for a living, so to drill me like you did would be similar to me telling Brum that he is a terrible school teacher....very offensive. |
![]() The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism. | |
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| yawnzzz | Jul 18 2008, 10:51 AM Post #39 |
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You're using grain as an example? Grain drops below market when there's an expected surplus. There will never be more oil than can be used. I like how you keep trying to act elitist to us. If you know so much, then spew some knowledge on me, and I'll believe you. So far, you sound like nothing more than someone who trades for fun. By the way, what companies do you own that makes you an expert on these issues? |
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| yawnzzz | Jul 18 2008, 11:02 AM Post #40 |
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I'll give you credit for finding the first reputable articles that somewhat agrees with you. It wouldn't surprise me to see oil drop $40-$50 per barrel (That's still above market), but that does surprise me when he later goes on to say that he could see it selling for $40-$50 per barrel. I've never heard an analyst say that before, unless I misunderstood him. That seems somewhat absurd to me. |
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| brumdog44 | Jul 18 2008, 03:16 PM Post #41 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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I don't have sound on my computer and can't listen to the video until I get to my laptop. When he says that 'adopting an energy policy where we take care of ourselves,' is that from offshore drilling alone or does it include ANWR? |
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| Mr Gray | Jul 18 2008, 09:04 PM Post #42 |
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He didn't reference either specifically, just said that we need to drill here and take care of ourselves. On a side note, he also said something very interesting that I hadn't heard before, and that China's demand is dropping and will continue to do so as their economy continues to slow. He said that the Olympics really propped things up. I think the Olympics reference is a very good point, and we also need to remember that China subsidizes Oil, so at some point soon that is going to start causing Federal red ink, so they will either have to ration or raise prices....either way their demand will decrease, and that is good news for us greedy energy hogging Americans B) |
![]() The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism. | |
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| brumdog44 | Jul 18 2008, 11:59 PM Post #43 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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Hey, I'm fine with most things that would drop the price of gas. ANWR really isn't on the table politically, but offshore drilling right now is. Charlie Crist has hesistantly said that it should be explored in Florida after being a a major opponent of it....could be a sign that McCain is looking for him to be the republican VP nominee and therefore Crist might be looking to be more national popularity at the expense of local popularity. |
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| Mr Gray | Jul 20 2008, 10:04 PM Post #44 |
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What I don't know is how safe and clean the off-shore drilling technology really is now. NLA believes that it will cause serious harm to the environment, but many proponents claim that it is extremely clean and safe. I really don't know, and don't know who to believe. Does anyone in here have any experience? |
![]() The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism. | |
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| Mr Gray | Jul 28 2008, 11:50 AM Post #45 |
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Hoosier, you're a smart guy, and I know you understand how this works also, but will you at least swallow a little bit of pride, take the comment back and admit that I might know a little bit of what I am talking about? http://www.cnbc.com/id/25885221 "We now seem to be in the situation where every rally is being sold," said Glen Ward, joint head of commodities at ODL Securities in London. "We feel that the trading community is not just liquidating long positions but also looking to establish shorts." Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday showed that speculative oil funds were shifting to a net short position -- a bet on falling prices -- for the first time in 17 months. |
![]() The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism. | |
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