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Drilling for Oil - The 10 Year Myth!
Tweet Topic Started: Jul 16 2008, 10:17 AM (517 Views)
yawnzzz Jul 28 2008, 07:38 PM Post #46
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aaronk2727
Jul 28 2008, 11:50 AM
Hoosier, you're a smart guy, and I know you understand how this works also, but will you at least swallow a little bit of pride, take the comment back and admit that I might know a little bit of what I am talking about?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25885221
"We now seem to be in the situation where every rally is being sold," said Glen Ward, joint head of commodities at ODL Securities in London. "We feel that the trading community is not just liquidating long positions but also looking to establish shorts."

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday showed that speculative oil funds were shifting to a net short position -- a bet on falling prices -- for the first time in 17 months.

I've never really thought you knew nothing, but pretending like it's fact that the price of oil will drop below market due to a few very rough calculations and then belittling others for their lack of knowledge got on my nerves. I've never argued that it won't go down, but below market is too far fetch for me at the moment.

Truthfully, I think the price will go back up when drilling starts showing its first results. That may seem odd, but I don't believe there's as much 'obtainable' oil as the speculators are reacting to. Obtainable is the key word. There's a lot of oil that could be drilled for, but when you factor in the cost of drilling in certain areas, it will greatly deter oil companies from taking the risk.
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Mr Gray Jul 28 2008, 10:22 PM Post #47
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Hoosier_Faithful_07
Jul 28 2008, 07:38 PM
aaronk2727
Jul 28 2008, 11:50 AM
Hoosier, you're a smart guy, and I know you understand how this works also, but will you at least swallow a little bit of pride, take the comment back and admit that I might know a little bit of what I am talking about?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25885221
"We now seem to be in the situation where every rally is being sold," said Glen Ward, joint head of commodities at ODL Securities in London. "We feel that the trading community is not just liquidating long positions but also looking to establish shorts."

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday showed that speculative oil funds were shifting to a net short position -- a bet on falling prices -- for the first time in 17 months.

I've never really thought you knew nothing, but pretending like it's fact that the price of oil will drop below market due to a few very rough calculations and then belittling others for their lack of knowledge got on my nerves. I've never argued that it won't go down, but below market is too far fetch for me at the moment.

Truthfully, I think the price will go back up when drilling starts showing its first results. That may seem odd, but I don't believe there's as much 'obtainable' oil as the speculators are reacting to. Obtainable is the key word. There's a lot of oil that could be drilled for, but when you factor in the cost of drilling in certain areas, it will greatly deter oil companies from taking the risk.
fair enough.....I just took offense because I spend a lot of time researching this, but water under the bridge. Curious though, what makes you think that we don't have enough oil as they think? I have found that the magnetic and sonar equipment they now have is extremely accurate in predictint where and how much oil is out there.
Posted Image
The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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yawnzzz Jul 29 2008, 09:25 AM Post #48
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aaronk2727
Jul 28 2008, 10:22 PM
Hoosier_Faithful_07
Jul 28 2008, 07:38 PM
aaronk2727
Jul 28 2008, 11:50 AM
Hoosier, you're a smart guy, and I know you understand how this works also, but will you at least swallow a little bit of pride, take the comment back and admit that I might know a little bit of what I am talking about?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25885221
"We now seem to be in the situation where every rally is being sold," said Glen Ward, joint head of commodities at ODL Securities in London. "We feel that the trading community is not just liquidating long positions but also looking to establish shorts."

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday showed that speculative oil funds were shifting to a net short position -- a bet on falling prices -- for the first time in 17 months.

I've never really thought you knew nothing, but pretending like it's fact that the price of oil will drop below market due to a few very rough calculations and then belittling others for their lack of knowledge got on my nerves. I've never argued that it won't go down, but below market is too far fetch for me at the moment.

Truthfully, I think the price will go back up when drilling starts showing its first results. That may seem odd, but I don't believe there's as much 'obtainable' oil as the speculators are reacting to. Obtainable is the key word. There's a lot of oil that could be drilled for, but when you factor in the cost of drilling in certain areas, it will greatly deter oil companies from taking the risk.
fair enough.....I just took offense because I spend a lot of time researching this, but water under the bridge. Curious though, what makes you think that we don't have enough oil as they think? I have found that the magnetic and sonar equipment they now have is extremely accurate in predictint where and how much oil is out there.
It's not a question of the amount of oil. It's a question of the amount of oil that can be obtained at a reasonable cost. A large chunk of the oil is in extremely difficult areas to drill, and will require a lot of investments in newer technology to obtain the oil.
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Mr Gray Nov 11 2008, 12:32 PM Post #49
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brumdog44
Jul 16 2008, 04:07 PM
Please provide links in which economists are saying that offshore drilling would drop the cost of gas to $2. I'm just not buying that alone would do so.

http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2008/06/would-offshore-drilling-bring-down-gas.html

While I think that the above article understates the drop, a drop to $2 a gallon is simply a pipe dream.
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
I had to go and find this thread.....maybe "he who is correct about dinosaurs" should start address me as " he who is correct about gas prices". "Pipe dream"... :rofl: :rofl:

I think there are a few other ones out there where hog and faithful also told me I was crazy, and we would never see prices below $2 again.
Posted Image
The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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Mr Gray Nov 11 2008, 12:35 PM Post #50
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brumdog44
Jul 17 2008, 04:19 PM
But I am not buying your assessment on the price of gas plummeting to $2 per gallon, nor do I think you'll find economists worth their weight in salt who agree with you.
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
Posted Image
The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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Mr Gray Nov 11 2008, 12:36 PM Post #51
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Hoosier_Faithful_07
Jul 17 2008, 05:01 PM
Quote:
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gas-could-fall-2-if/story.aspx?guid=%7B2673C102-68E0-41D9-9C9A-10EE2E723948%7D
Hmmm...looks like they agree with me. Different means, but same end, and oddly enough it looks like they are estimating nearly the exact same cash crude price that I have been talking about. Am I still just making things up?


That has absolutely nothing to do with off-shore drilling. Seems funny that you bring that up after arguing with me in a previous thread about how the free market balances itself, and now when it's the only reputable economic article you can find, it suddenly goes with your point of view?

Quote:
 
http://onenewsnow.com/Politics/Default.aspx?id=180276
Although I don't know Michele Bachmann's educational background, I would assume that she had some economic anylists support, but none the less here is another person that agrees with me.


A rookie congresswomen is your other economic source? You're lack of ability to find any economist that agrees with you isn't that surprising.

There's absolutely positively NO way that prices will ever fall below market value without government regulation. The ONLY time prices go below market value is when future speculation perceives an end where the value will continue to drop. There's going to continue to be more and more countries needing oil, and even if an alternative fuel source is developed, there are hundreds of countries' whose citizens will not be able to afford it.

Aaron, you've completely made me lose respect for you in this thread. I have no doubt in my mind that you have no clue what you're talking about, and it's one thing to propose something as opinion, but to belittle other people when you're own opinion is very uneducated is flat-out ridiculous.
sorry faithful....but I had to do it
Posted Image
The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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boilergrad01 Nov 11 2008, 12:41 PM Post #52
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AaronK,

The drop in price is due to demand decreasing not because we fixed the supply problem. It is because people choose not to travel as much. I could provide links but tourism is down nationwide.
Nothing beats an Astronaut
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eelbor Nov 11 2008, 12:45 PM Post #53
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Uhhmm, Aaron? Your assessment was that offshore drilling would lower the price of gas below 2$ a gallon, not that a stagnant economy would do the job for you.

Nothing has been 'fixed'.
Posted Image

"Liberal, shmiberal. That should be a new word. Shmiberal: one who is assumed liberal, just because he's a professional whiner in the newspaper. If you'll read the subtext for many of those old strips, you'll find the heart of an old-fashioned Libertarian. And I'd be a Libertarian, if they weren't all a bunch of tax-dodging professional whiners." - Berkeley Breathed


Meat is Murder. Sweet, delicious murder.
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Mr Gray Nov 11 2008, 12:46 PM Post #54
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boilergrad01
Nov 11 2008, 12:41 PM
AaronK,

The drop in price is due to demand decreasing not because we fixed the supply problem. It is because people choose not to travel as much. I could provide links but tourism is down nationwide.
increased supply or decreased demand creates the same affect that I was preaching about. A sell-off in the futures market, bringing prices drastically down, and even below market value for a short period of time. Exactly what is happening ;)
Posted Image
The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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hoosierinhogville Nov 11 2008, 12:58 PM Post #55
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I was skeptical, though didn't come out and just flat out say you are wrong. As noted though you are only half right. It has dropped to 2, but a lot of that is because decreased demand. So, you get half credit. B)

Oh, and speaking of gas prices, I don't know what you guys are seeing up there, but at Kroger's down the road it is 1.87.
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boilergrad01 Nov 11 2008, 01:03 PM Post #56
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AaronK the demans side has been affected if we have done nothing to fix the problem and when demand returns prices will soar again. I agree it is a supply/demand relationship but we
S+D=price formuls we solved for D not S we need to solve for S before the economy fixes D and prices shyrocket back up. I think you agree and I agree we need to increase domestic production but not just for the cheaper gas but because energy is a part of the failing economy and national security

American prosperity relies on
E(economy)+ O (energy) + natinal security= prosperous America right now we are 0-3 on these issues and hence the country is in a very negative view.

Drilling Domestically creates American jobs lowers the price of Energy and increase national security. So I agree we need to drill in America but not just to lower gas prices but to increase national security and create jobs
Nothing beats an Astronaut
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Mr Gray Nov 11 2008, 01:38 PM Post #57
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boilergrad01
Nov 11 2008, 01:03 PM
AaronK the demans side has been affected if we have done nothing to fix the problem and when demand returns prices will soar again. I agree it is a supply/demand relationship but we
S+D=price formuls we solved for D not S we need to solve for S before the economy fixes D and prices shyrocket back up. I think you agree and I agree we need to increase domestic production but not just for the cheaper gas but because energy is a part of the failing economy and national security

American prosperity relies on
E(economy)+ O (energy) + natinal security= prosperous America right now we are 0-3 on these issues and hence the country is in a very negative view.

Drilling Domestically creates American jobs lowers the price of Energy and increase national security. So I agree we need to drill in America but not just to lower gas prices but to increase national security and create jobs
I'm not arguing the fundamentals of the decrease with you BG1...I'm just being a smart ass and proving a point that with increased supply or decreased demand (same affect) speculators will drive the price down to prices even below fair market value for some time, which is what i said before and what we are seeing now.
Posted Image
The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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boilergrad01 Nov 11 2008, 01:57 PM Post #58
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AaronK,

We agree. It just blows my mind why You and I and others on the board get it but the 545 elected assclowns in DC can't figure it out????
Nothing beats an Astronaut
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Mr Gray Nov 11 2008, 02:49 PM Post #59
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boilergrad01
Nov 11 2008, 01:57 PM
AaronK,

We agree. It just blows my mind why You and I and others on the board get it but the 545 elected assclowns in DC can't figure it out????
because we only have our own hands in our pocket....big difference
Posted Image
The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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yawnzzz Nov 11 2008, 02:56 PM Post #60
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Well, you were right about it dropping so low, but it has nothing to do with your argument. If your argument was coming true I'd be ecstatic, but the real cause of the drop leaves me pretty frightened.
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