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Sarah Palin was very impressive today in NC
Tweet Topic Started: Oct 7 2008, 11:10 PM (468 Views)
hoosierinhogville Oct 8 2008, 03:54 PM Post #46
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boilergrad01
Oct 8 2008, 03:23 PM
I would not count on that turnout or the youth vote because for some reason it never makes it to the polls.
That is what the Clinton campaign kept telling itself too.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 8 2008, 03:58 PM Post #47
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Oct 8 2008, 03:37 PM
For Hog CNN just predicted a 263-275 loss for McCain. I think we rally in PA. and CO is still up for grabs but I am afraid end of the day CO might be the spike that stabs us.
Sounds like CNN and I are thinking about the same thing.
When you say rally in Penn, do you mean actually win? I doubt it. Pollster has it as a strong Obama state, and he is trending upward there.
As a matter of fact, give me a few minutes and I will post the trend lines for all the states you mentioned. You are probably not going to like what you see.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 8 2008, 04:15 PM Post #48
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Ok, here are the trends per Pollster as of this afternoon. Now Pollster does their average differently than RCP so the numbers might be a little different, but what I want to to look at is the direction the race is going. The numbers are already bad for McCain, and in every state you mentioned except for Missouri, Obama is trending upward at a steady pace, while McCain is trending downward at a relative pace.

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boilergrad01 Oct 8 2008, 04:17 PM Post #49
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Hog,

I know the trend line very well so does the Camp. They did two stops today with McCain/Palin on the same stage. McCain was almost begging for support. Last week it was reported McCain pulled out of Michigan for Penn. That is alot of resources in very specfic counties. You would be surprised how down to what precincts one needs to walk and what ones to call and what time to call them. Both sides have the ability to micro-target. Plus McCain has Ridge and even fucked up goofy ass Sen Spector has started working for McCain in Pa. McCain takes PA and that washes with Obama winning VA/CO and still gets us over 270. I think locking up states like NC and FL if we can then allows more people and resources to be put into PA. Is it a hard fight yes but we have overcome before. SC was a tough fight very tough. I was almost arrested in SC.
Nothing beats an Astronaut
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hoosierinhogville Oct 8 2008, 04:25 PM Post #50
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Oct 8 2008, 04:17 PM
You would be surprised how down to what precincts one needs to walk and what ones to call and what time to call them. Both sides have the ability to micro-target. Plus McCain has Ridge and even fucked up goofy ass Sen Spector has started working for McCain in Pa.
Well you know the trend line, but you are obviously good at ignoring them. #1 Everything I have read, even from conservatives, has said that the Obama campaign has a much better ground game. #2 Obama has Rendell and the Casey's in PA. So what is your point? Both sides have high profile people in in each state stumping for them. In the end the surrogates don't matter. As long as the economy stays the main issue Obama is going to keep trending up in those blue collar states.
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Mr Gray Oct 8 2008, 04:30 PM Post #51
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Oct 8 2008, 03:21 PM
boilergrad01
Oct 8 2008, 03:15 PM
Cont,

I really do not want to win on the Bradley factor that would be bad for America
I agree, and I do think that will have an effect though not a 10 point effect as Aaron suggest. The yourger the voting demographic, the less part it will play. Also, I think the Bradley effect will be ofset somewhat by record turnout among blacks.
hey NLA, hog said "blacks"....there he is playing the race card again :P
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hoosierinhogville Oct 8 2008, 04:32 PM Post #52
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Oct 8 2008, 04:30 PM
hoosierinhogville
Oct 8 2008, 03:21 PM
boilergrad01
Oct 8 2008, 03:15 PM
Cont,

I really do not want to win on the Bradley factor that would be bad for America
I agree, and I do think that will have an effect though not a 10 point effect as Aaron suggest. The yourger the voting demographic, the less part it will play. Also, I think the Bradley effect will be ofset somewhat by record turnout among blacks.
hey NLA, hog said "blacks"....there he is playing the race card again :P
Would it help if I use my son's descriptive term and called them browns?

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Mr Gray Oct 8 2008, 04:33 PM Post #53
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dcamden03
Oct 8 2008, 03:28 PM
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Oct 8 2008, 03:26 PM
they're attempting to make it REALLY easy for the college vote this year. not only were people getting students registered (volunteers from both campaigns) for virtually the whole school year so far, early voting has started ON CAMPUS. students can vote early in the HPER (which makes it extremely easy). If this same style is repeated across college campuses nationwide, i could see the college/youth vote playing a factor.
God help us all if thats the case.
this would go against my constitutionalist's views, but sometimes I think it would be nice if only taxpayers chould vote. Of course poor people and college kids are going to vote for the socialist.......it's free money and free education. It is a little unfair when thinking about it.
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 8 2008, 04:33 PM Post #54
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By the way BG, do you realize that Penn has been polled by 3 different organizations this week, and the closest one had Obama +12?
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mongo Oct 8 2008, 04:40 PM Post #55
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Seriously what the fuck is this Princess Sarah thing? It is lame beyond words.
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brumdog44 Oct 8 2008, 04:46 PM Post #56
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sirbrianwilson
Oct 8 2008, 10:09 AM
boilergrad01
Oct 8 2008, 09:38 AM
enemydeservesnomercy
Oct 8 2008, 08:35 AM
...impressive?...well, that means she obviously didn't have to answer any questions... :D
No she didn't answer alot of questions. The thing that was so impressive was the way she worked the crowd. She had probably never been to NC in her life. It is harder just walking in after getting off a plane going directly to a stage and being on and lighting up the room. Sen E Dole who has been in this arena for years was not as smooth as Sarah. Mayor Pat who is a 7 term Mayor running for Gov in his home state was not a s smooth. I guess the thing that really struck me was as she was on the walkway sighning autograghs she made eye contact with people and waved truly connecting. She then out of a monster area where the crowd had ascended she saw a special needs adult child. She then made eye contact with the mom and went straight to her and talked. Then she sighned something for the special needs person. You could tell it meant alot to him. That is pretty amazing that she could even make out a face in the crowd. I was on the same stage earlier and I just saw a sea of people and couldn't really make out a face.
lots of people can work crowds. unfortunately, for sarah, she's running for vice president of the united states of america. that's a job where you have to answer questions. she's shown that she can't.

br
Know who can work a crowd? Gallagher.

And I don't want him to be the vice president, either.
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brumdog44 Oct 8 2008, 04:53 PM Post #57
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aaronk2727
Oct 8 2008, 04:33 PM
dcamden03
Oct 8 2008, 03:28 PM
BTown8
Oct 8 2008, 03:26 PM
they're attempting to make it REALLY easy for the college vote this year. not only were people getting students registered (volunteers from both campaigns) for virtually the whole school year so far, early voting has started ON CAMPUS. students can vote early in the HPER (which makes it extremely easy). If this same style is repeated across college campuses nationwide, i could see the college/youth vote playing a factor.
God help us all if thats the case.
this would go against my constitutionalist's views, but sometimes I think it would be nice if only taxpayers chould vote. Of course poor people and college kids are going to vote for the socialist.......it's free money and free education. It is a little unfair when thinking about it.
Need a tissue?

Sorry to hear that they are letting people outside of your income bracket vote.
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eelbor Oct 8 2008, 04:54 PM Post #58
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brumdog44
Oct 8 2008, 04:46 PM
sirbrianwilson
Oct 8 2008, 10:09 AM
boilergrad01
Oct 8 2008, 09:38 AM
enemydeservesnomercy
Oct 8 2008, 08:35 AM
...impressive?...well, that means she obviously didn't have to answer any questions... :D
No she didn't answer alot of questions. The thing that was so impressive was the way she worked the crowd. She had probably never been to NC in her life. It is harder just walking in after getting off a plane going directly to a stage and being on and lighting up the room. Sen E Dole who has been in this arena for years was not as smooth as Sarah. Mayor Pat who is a 7 term Mayor running for Gov in his home state was not a s smooth. I guess the thing that really struck me was as she was on the walkway sighning autograghs she made eye contact with people and waved truly connecting. She then out of a monster area where the crowd had ascended she saw a special needs adult child. She then made eye contact with the mom and went straight to her and talked. Then she sighned something for the special needs person. You could tell it meant alot to him. That is pretty amazing that she could even make out a face in the crowd. I was on the same stage earlier and I just saw a sea of people and couldn't really make out a face.
lots of people can work crowds. unfortunately, for sarah, she's running for vice president of the united states of america. that's a job where you have to answer questions. she's shown that she can't.

br
Know who can work a crowd? Gallagher.

And I don't want him to be the vice president, either.
Did you post this in another thread? I am getting deja vu here. It is like my spidey senses are tingling. ^o)
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HoosierLars Oct 8 2008, 04:58 PM Post #59
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boilergrad01
Oct 8 2008, 03:37 PM
Btown,

It is kinda like paying your VISA bill. Alot of people have the money but just kinda put it off put it off and bamo you are late.

For Hog CNN just predicted a 263-275 loss for McCain. I think we rally in PA. and CO is still up for grabs but I am afraid end of the day CO might be the spike that stabs us.
It would be poetic if the PA gun and bible clingers put McCain over the top.
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brumdog44 Oct 8 2008, 05:01 PM Post #60
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hoosierinhogville
Oct 8 2008, 04:33 PM
By the way BG, do you realize that Penn has been polled by 3 different organizations this week, and the closest one had Obama +12?
Pennsylvania is not a winnable state for McCain. Not even sure of the logic of thinking that it is.

Polling results on Rasmussen:

States leaning democrat, likely democrat, and safe democrat total 300 electoral votes. Safe GOP, likely GOP, and leans GOP total 174. Toss up states total 64.

So for McCain to win the election, he'd have to win all 6 toss up states and take an additional 30 electoral votes from states labeled leans democrat. Ain't happening.
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