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| The Official Polls Thread; daily update | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Oct 22 2008, 08:25 AM (1,090 Views) | |
| brumdog44 | Oct 30 2008, 04:01 PM Post #136 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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| hoosierinhogville | Oct 30 2008, 04:02 PM Post #137 |
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Coach
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The undecided factor? Man you must be getting the copies of the official McCain talking points sent to you. I have read several stories over the last couple days that McCain's pollster feels like that Obama won't overperform the polls, and that for various reasons the numbers he is getting now will be the numbers he ends up with, whereas McCAin is underperforming in the polling and will pickup the undecided vote. Ok. Here is the problem with that theory. In PA, VA and CO Obama is polling at 50% or above. All it takes is 1 vote above 50%. So even if Obama performs exactly how the polls say he will, that is still a losing formula for McCain. Not to mention that fact that it is silly to think that you are going to pick off the vast majority of the "undecided" vote when that is just not the way things have been going. |
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| brumdog44 | Oct 30 2008, 04:06 PM Post #138 |
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A majority of voters that are undecided now won't vote. |
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| hoosierinhogville | Oct 30 2008, 04:07 PM Post #139 |
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Coach
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Furthermore, people keep talking about the Bradly effect, but they leave out the fact that in most cases Obama outpreformed the polling in the primary. Also, i saw your deal about NC earlier and i meant to reply then, but got busy so I will do so here. I saw a local article from NC earlier today that said that there has been a massive turnout among blacks in early voting in NC and FL. If that continues on into election day, its game over. |
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| hoosierinhogville | Oct 30 2008, 04:16 PM Post #140 |
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Coach
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And more on the topic of NC. Quote for a NC pollster courtesy of Politico I am much more confident that there will be a large increase in black turnout than I am that there will be a large increase in youth turnout, but the same truism applies to black voters: there will be a major movement toward the Democrats with them whether there's a large increase in turnout or not. Take North Carolina as the biggest example. The 2004 exit poll showed John Kerry winning black voters in the state 85-15. A private poll we conducted statewide over the last few days showed Barack Obama winning them 95-5. That may not sound like a huge difference, but look at it this way. Kerry won them by 70. Obama's winning them by 90. Let's conservatively put black turnout at 20%. A 20% improvement with 20% of the population is worth an extra four points for Obama statewide. That's a huge deal. |
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| brumdog44 | Oct 30 2008, 04:18 PM Post #141 |
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And as I've discussed before, the Bradley effect was an error in polling methods from an election in 1982 and has been adjusted for. From 1982 to 1996, blacks underperformed by 3.1% in state and national elections, since they have overperformed by .3%. |
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| dreachon | Oct 30 2008, 10:23 PM Post #142 |
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Creative Title Here
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The latest poll that includes Barr and Nader on the ballot has Obama +13 |
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| brumdog44 | Oct 30 2008, 10:24 PM Post #143 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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Seems high...what poll is that? |
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| dreachon | Oct 30 2008, 10:30 PM Post #144 |
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Creative Title Here
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It is high, CBS |
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| brumdog44 | Oct 31 2008, 04:52 PM Post #145 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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Rassy: +4. Gallup: +8/+9 in it's two models. realclearpolitics.com average: 6.5...and they have removed the Pew poll. |
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| dreachon | Nov 1 2008, 12:43 PM Post #146 |
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Creative Title Here
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Gallup average comes in today at +10 |
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| sirbrianwilson | Nov 1 2008, 12:44 PM Post #147 |
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Stemlerite
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it's a dead heat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111!!!! ZOMG! br |
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| brumdog44 | Nov 1 2008, 04:21 PM Post #148 |
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Rasmussen back up a point, Obama +5. OMG!!! Obama better start his concession speech!!! |
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| md11flyer | Nov 1 2008, 08:44 PM Post #149 |
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Assistant Coach
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Sorry Brum, I think McCain has a great shot at pulling this out. There are many people out there scared of the unknown, and that is exactly what you get with Obama. I predict McCain in a squeaker. |
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| brumdog44 | Nov 1 2008, 08:45 PM Post #150 |
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Make sure you show back up on the fifth. |
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