Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]
Logo
Search Members FAQ Portal
  • Navigation
  • Our Hoosier Board
  • →
  • Other
  • →
  • Politics
  • →
  • The Official Polls Thread
Welcome to Our Hoosier Board!

Most of the posters here have been around for nearly a decade now. You'll find their knowledge and insight to be second to none. We have a really strong community and value everyone's opinions.

Feel free to jump into any thread and voice your opinion with conviction. We love heated debates and even some fanbase ribbing from time to time. We pride ourselves on the lack of moderation needed to make this board successful.

Please remember that we have been around many years and have an astute ability to tell the difference between an immature, childish, trash-talking troll and a passionate fan voicing his or her opinion. It is at the discretion of Jazen and myself whether any moderating actions should be taken at any given time. It's a very, very rare thing. In other words, no worries....you'll be fine!

Cheers,
sirbrianwilson

Join our community!


If you're already a member please log in to your account to access all of our features:

Username:   Password:
Add Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • …
  • 9
  • 10
  • 11
The Official Polls Thread; daily update
Tweet Topic Started: Oct 22 2008, 08:25 AM (1,090 Views)
brumdog44 Oct 30 2008, 04:01 PM Post #136
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
boilergrad01
Oct 30 2008, 01:05 PM
I saw that hog. We are within striking distance in all the states we need. Colorado Penn Virginia have all closed. I understand we are strong in NC I live in Raleigh a liberal paradise and we have alot of dems for McCains here. Unless they are Rep afraid to admit they support McCain and ask for the Dems for McCain stuff. I went to a very liberal area for lunch today and had lunch with a Vet. We had some McCain stuff on and some bumper stickers. People came over too the bumper stickers many said they where dems and had already voted and went with our guy. Maybe they are fibbing to be nice I don't know.

Penn

You do not believe me it must mean you believe I am either

1. Not honest
2. Delusional
3. really stupid.

I guess we will see on the 4th.

National Polls showed some slippage.

2.
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
hoosierinhogville Oct 30 2008, 04:02 PM Post #137
Member Avatar
Coach
Posts:
5,812
Group:
Members
Member
#155
Joined:
February 11, 2008
boilergrad01
Oct 30 2008, 03:39 PM
What is the undecided factor????
The undecided factor? Man you must be getting the copies of the official McCain talking points sent to you. I have read several stories over the last couple days that McCain's pollster feels like that Obama won't overperform the polls, and that for various reasons the numbers he is getting now will be the numbers he ends up with, whereas McCAin is underperforming in the polling and will pickup the undecided vote.
Ok. Here is the problem with that theory. In PA, VA and CO Obama is polling at 50% or above. All it takes is 1 vote above 50%. So even if Obama performs exactly how the polls say he will, that is still a losing formula for McCain.
Not to mention that fact that it is silly to think that you are going to pick off the vast majority of the "undecided" vote when that is just not the way things have been going.
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Oct 30 2008, 04:06 PM Post #138
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
dreachon
Oct 30 2008, 03:59 PM
I dunno, let's say Obama is up 5% and there are 9% undecided. McCain would need to win 2/3 of the undecided vote. I don't see that happening. Especially because I think Undecideds are more likely to vote 3rd party.
A majority of voters that are undecided now won't vote.
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
hoosierinhogville Oct 30 2008, 04:07 PM Post #139
Member Avatar
Coach
Posts:
5,812
Group:
Members
Member
#155
Joined:
February 11, 2008
hoosierinhogville
Oct 30 2008, 04:02 PM
boilergrad01
Oct 30 2008, 03:39 PM
What is the undecided factor????
The undecided factor? Man you must be getting the copies of the official McCain talking points sent to you. I have read several stories over the last couple days that McCain's pollster feels like that Obama won't overperform the polls, and that for various reasons the numbers he is getting now will be the numbers he ends up with, whereas McCAin is underperforming in the polling and will pickup the undecided vote.
Ok. Here is the problem with that theory. In PA, VA and CO Obama is polling at 50% or above. All it takes is 1 vote above 50%. So even if Obama performs exactly how the polls say he will, that is still a losing formula for McCain.
Not to mention that fact that it is silly to think that you are going to pick off the vast majority of the "undecided" vote when that is just not the way things have been going.
Furthermore, people keep talking about the Bradly effect, but they leave out the fact that in most cases Obama outpreformed the polling in the primary.

Also, i saw your deal about NC earlier and i meant to reply then, but got busy so I will do so here.
I saw a local article from NC earlier today that said that there has been a massive turnout among blacks in early voting in NC and FL. If that continues on into election day, its game over.
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
hoosierinhogville Oct 30 2008, 04:16 PM Post #140
Member Avatar
Coach
Posts:
5,812
Group:
Members
Member
#155
Joined:
February 11, 2008
And more on the topic of NC. Quote for a NC pollster courtesy of Politico

I am much more confident that there will be a large increase in black turnout than I am that there will be a large increase in youth turnout, but the same truism applies to black voters: there will be a major movement toward the Democrats with them whether there's a large increase in turnout or not.

Take North Carolina as the biggest example. The 2004 exit poll showed John Kerry winning black voters in the state 85-15. A private poll we conducted statewide over the last few days showed Barack Obama winning them 95-5. That may not sound like a huge difference, but look at it this way. Kerry won them by 70. Obama's winning them by 90. Let's conservatively put black turnout at 20%. A 20% improvement with 20% of the population is worth an extra four points for Obama statewide. That's a huge deal.
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Oct 30 2008, 04:18 PM Post #141
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
And as I've discussed before, the Bradley effect was an error in polling methods from an election in 1982 and has been adjusted for. From 1982 to 1996, blacks underperformed by 3.1% in state and national elections, since they have overperformed by .3%.
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
dreachon Oct 30 2008, 10:23 PM Post #142
Member Avatar
Creative Title Here
Posts:
24,067
Group:
Members
Member
#148
Joined:
February 10, 2008
The latest poll that includes Barr and Nader on the ballot has Obama +13
Posted Image
Online Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Oct 30 2008, 10:24 PM Post #143
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
dreachon
Oct 30 2008, 10:23 PM
The latest poll that includes Barr and Nader on the ballot has Obama +13
Seems high...what poll is that?
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
dreachon Oct 30 2008, 10:30 PM Post #144
Member Avatar
Creative Title Here
Posts:
24,067
Group:
Members
Member
#148
Joined:
February 10, 2008
It is high, CBS
Posted Image
Online Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Oct 31 2008, 04:52 PM Post #145
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
Rassy: +4.

Gallup: +8/+9 in it's two models.

realclearpolitics.com average: 6.5...and they have removed the Pew poll.
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
dreachon Nov 1 2008, 12:43 PM Post #146
Member Avatar
Creative Title Here
Posts:
24,067
Group:
Members
Member
#148
Joined:
February 10, 2008
Gallup average comes in today at +10
Posted Image
Online Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
sirbrianwilson Nov 1 2008, 12:44 PM Post #147
Member Avatar
Stemlerite
Posts:
22,404
Group:
Admin
Member
#1
Joined:
February 4, 2008
dreachon
Nov 1 2008, 12:43 PM
Gallup average comes in today at +10
it's a dead heat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111!!!! ZOMG!

br
Posted Image
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Nov 1 2008, 04:21 PM Post #148
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
sirbrianwilson
Nov 1 2008, 12:44 PM
dreachon
Nov 1 2008, 12:43 PM
Gallup average comes in today at +10
it's a dead heat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111!!!! ZOMG!

br
Rasmussen back up a point, Obama +5.

OMG!!! Obama better start his concession speech!!!
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
md11flyer Nov 1 2008, 08:44 PM Post #149
Member Avatar
Assistant Coach
Posts:
2,387
Group:
Members
Member
#49
Joined:
February 6, 2008
brumdog44
Oct 30 2008, 04:00 PM
boilergrad01
Oct 30 2008, 03:39 PM
dreachon
Oct 30 2008, 03:29 PM
Rassy back up to +5 today and Gallup average is at +6. IndyStar poll today says Obama +1.
Dreach,

What is the undecided factor???? I will use the Kieth Obamania scale undecided plus the margin of error for the Kieth factor.
Since you'll be the last one left who still thinks McCain will win, you can turn the lights out after everyone else leaves.

The Bradley effect...no,no, the undecided effect...no,no the Oblerman effect.

You keep forgeting the reality effect. Don't tremble too hard when it crashes down on you.
Sorry Brum, I think McCain has a great shot at pulling this out. There are many people out there scared of the unknown, and that is exactly what you get with Obama. I predict McCain in a squeaker.
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Nov 1 2008, 08:45 PM Post #150
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
Make sure you show back up on the fifth.
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Enjoy forums? Start your own community for free.
Learn More · Sign-up Now
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Politics · Next Topic »
Add Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • …
  • 9
  • 10
  • 11

Track Topic · E-mail Topic Time: 7:18 PM Jul 10
Hosted for free by ZetaBoards · Privacy Policy