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The Official Polls Thread; daily update
Tweet Topic Started: Oct 22 2008, 08:25 AM (1,088 Views)
Mr Gray Nov 2 2008, 06:55 PM Post #151
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hey...you guys know I can't stand all of these polls and I really don't pay much attention to them, but I am curious....how accurate are the in predicting the winner historically?
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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BoilerNLA Nov 2 2008, 07:20 PM Post #152
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I heard Karl Rove on Fox News today say that there were more polls conducted in the month of October than there were in the entire 2004 campaign. 251, by his count.
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brumdog44 Nov 2 2008, 08:25 PM Post #153
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aaronk2727
Nov 2 2008, 06:55 PM
hey...you guys know I can't stand all of these polls and I really don't pay much attention to them, but I am curious....how accurate are the in predicting the winner historically?
They have gotten more accurate as time has gone by. If you took the average of the ten most reputable polling organizations in the Bush/Kerry election, they were right on the mark.

Polling is an evolutionary science (not being a smart ass).

Here is a list of 2004 polls in comparison to the election:

http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm

Among the 8 polling organization listed predicting the final outcome, 5 had Bush winning the popular vote, 2 had Kerry, and one had it even. In total, the average of the 8 polls had Bush winning by 1.4%. He actually won by 2.4%.

In the 14 final heat polls, Bush won 10, Kerry 3, and one had it even. Average result was Bush +1.5%.
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BoilerNLA Nov 3 2008, 02:50 AM Post #154
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check out this CNN calculator

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/
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dreachon Nov 3 2008, 10:01 AM Post #155
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Day before the election and polls look great for Obama. Rassy up to +6. Gallup up to +11. Zogby at +7. I just don't think all of these polls could be so far off. I suppose it is possible for McCain to pull out tight wins and get the electoral victory while Obama creams him in the popular vote...highly unlikely of course.
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brumdog44 Nov 5 2008, 10:19 PM Post #156
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To this people knocking polls:

with 98% of the precincts reporting, Obama is up 52.4% to 46.3%. Most of the votes yet to be counted are from Oregon and Washington, so it could slip up a tenth of a percent or two. Final % margin is over 6%, average of polls on real clear politics was just over 7%.
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