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The Official Polls Thread; daily update
Tweet Topic Started: Oct 22 2008, 08:25 AM (1,098 Views)
BTown11 Oct 22 2008, 12:02 PM Post #16
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dreachon
Oct 22 2008, 11:59 AM
Worse news for McCain. In national polls whrre Barr and Nader are an option Obama has a +9.3% lead. That's almost 2% more than the polls where it is just McCain and Obama. I don't think McCain can afford to lose votes to Barr or Nader at this point.
wow, i haven't seen a whole lot of polls with third parties in them, but both of those guys mean nothing but bad for mccain's chances. this is looking like a real uphill battle now with less than 2 weeks away. just think if ron paul had entered as an independent candidate..
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boilergrad01 Oct 22 2008, 12:53 PM Post #17
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Hog,

Wow I am pumped now. NBC partnered with Mason Dixon just put out a poll saying Virginia is Obama +2 and that is within the margin of error. They also put us up +1 in Florida also margin of error. Rush so this is highly suspect reports AP will put a national poll out later today showing a 1 pt race. While he claims Fox will put out a poll shoing it a 9 pt race. The Virginai number if accurate and i uncercut NBC so much it is hard to accept the good news would be huge. i hope and pray th Virginia is correct that changes everything.
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boilergrad01 Oct 22 2008, 01:34 PM Post #18
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This is funny but kinda scary. Daily KOS has it at an 10 pt race and Fox has it at 9. They are polar oppsites but have it close to the same. Hog the trend for Gallup went down and the IBT whatever poll that is came back to 5. I swear they just make up numbers at these places to drive me crazy. Everyday they swing fairly rapidly from close to big but never in the ame direction. Like gallup calls Zogby and says you go up i will come down or somthing. Rassy I get the actually sell membership and so does Xogby so they need flucuation to keep the money coming in. The others I do not know it is driving me up the wall. That Virginia number sure looks better than the 10 pt lead I saw the other day
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hoosierinhogville Oct 22 2008, 02:29 PM Post #19
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boilergrad01
Oct 22 2008, 12:53 PM
Hog,

Wow I am pumped now. NBC partnered with Mason Dixon just put out a poll saying Virginia is Obama +2 and that is within the margin of error. They also put us up +1 in Florida also margin of error. Rush so this is highly suspect reports AP will put a national poll out later today showing a 1 pt race. While he claims Fox will put out a poll shoing it a 9 pt race. The Virginai number if accurate and i uncercut NBC so much it is hard to accept the good news would be huge. i hope and pray th Virginia is correct that changes everything.
Fox News does have it +9. I believe the +1 as much as I believe Pews +14. Which is to say I don't believe it much at all. Both are statistcal outliers, so I tend to discredit it. Also, the AP that is plus 1 ended on Monday, which was before the polls saw the bounce that they have over the last couple of days.

The Virginia thing would be good news, though I don't see how it changes everything. I have thought all along that FL, VA, and NC would end up tilting your way, but you would still have to win PA, unless you pull out CO and NM, which even the people in your camp think that is unlikely.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 22 2008, 02:32 PM Post #20
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Oct 22 2008, 01:34 PM
This is funny but kinda scary. Daily KOS has it at an 10 pt race and Fox has it at 9. They are polar oppsites but have it close to the same. Hog the trend for Gallup went down and the IBT whatever poll that is came back to 5. I swear they just make up numbers at these places to drive me crazy. Everyday they swing fairly rapidly from close to big but never in the ame direction. Like gallup calls Zogby and says you go up i will come down or somthing. Rassy I get the actually sell membership and so does Xogby so they need flucuation to keep the money coming in. The others I do not know it is driving me up the wall. That Virginia number sure looks better than the 10 pt lead I saw the other day
KOS has at it at +10 or +11 for like a month straight, so that is nothing new. It is hard to tell though that is why I have said all along, that I look more at the poll average and the electoral map than anything. Also, I have been looking more at pollster lately than I have at RCP. They average their polls over a longer period of time, so while it takes a little longer for trends to register, it kind of evens out the little statistical blips where you might see a 2 or 3 point change in a days time.
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boilergrad01 Oct 22 2008, 02:38 PM Post #21
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We only need Co and nev which is looking possible right now. Flor,NC, Mizzu Va,IN,OH and CO get us to 269 Nev gets us to 274 Iowa NM and New Hamp are not needed. McCain was in Mew Hamp for the Sen race today and the congressional races not for himself. New Hamp with Colorado would get us to 272 so a little help but Nev gets it done.
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BoilerNLA Oct 22 2008, 02:39 PM Post #22
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These polls actually scare me a bit. I don't trust them. No one knows which candidate will be chosen on November 4th.

Just curious, have anyone of you ever participated in any of these polls? I haven't. I assume these polls are done over the phone (?)
I never answer my land line unless I recognize the phone number.
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boilergrad01 Oct 22 2008, 02:40 PM Post #23
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BoilerNLA
Oct 22 2008, 02:39 PM
These polls actually scare me a bit. I don't trust them. No one knows which candidate will be chosen on November 4th.

Just curious, have anyone of you ever participated in any of these polls? I haven't. I assume these polls are done over the phone (?)
I never answer my land line unless I recognize the phone number.
Who has a land line anymore
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hoosierinhogville Oct 22 2008, 02:41 PM Post #24
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Oct 22 2008, 02:38 PM
We only need Co and nev which is looking possible right now. Flor,NC, Mizzu Va,IN,OH and CO get us to 269 Nev gets us to 274 Iowa NM and New Hamp are not needed. McCain was in Mew Hamp for the Sen race today and the congressional races not for himself. New Hamp with Colorado would get us to 272 so a little help but Nev gets it done.
Way to keep the faith BG. The problem is, and you know this, at this point you guys have many more MUST WIN states, and you are down in the average in a lot of those states.
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boilergrad01 Oct 22 2008, 02:45 PM Post #25
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Those states will come home as it gets closer they always do. McCain has seen movement in Oh FLA VA NEV in the past few days. To be honest NC kinda concerns me at that would really hurt since I live here. CO is going to be tough and make it a late night
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hoosierinhogville Oct 22 2008, 02:48 PM Post #26
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boilergrad01
Oct 22 2008, 02:45 PM
Those states will come home as it gets closer they always do. McCain has seen movement in Oh FLA VA NEV in the past few days. To be honest NC kinda concerns me at that would really hurt since I live here. CO is going to be tough and make it a late night
I am sure you have seen the early voting numbers in NC haven't you? If the Dem numbers stay high, it is going to be awfully tough on you guys. Losing CO or NV is one thing. If you lose one of the swing states on the coast, it's over.
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boilergrad01 Oct 22 2008, 02:52 PM Post #27
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If we lose a Mid Atlantic we must have Penn even Gov Ed rendell who knows alot more than all of us combined about winning is begging Barry to come back to Penn. he knows something the polls are missing. he has publicly asked Obama to come back. The Obama camp admits to it. I am not sure how Penn is in play but everyon is concerned on both sides about it.
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BoilerNLA Oct 22 2008, 03:01 PM Post #28
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boilergrad01
Oct 22 2008, 02:40 PM
BoilerNLA
Oct 22 2008, 02:39 PM
These polls actually scare me a bit. I don't trust them. No one knows which candidate will be chosen on November 4th.

Just curious, have anyone of you ever participated in any of these polls? I haven't. I assume these polls are done over the phone (?)
I never answer my land line unless I recognize the phone number.
Who has a land line anymore
lol
maybe I am the only one who still has a land line. Call me "old-fashioned" I guess. I use it so rarely that the numbers on the phone are starting to "stick" when I push them.

I use it primarily for internet access and faxing.

Now that I think about it, it is probably a waste of my money... just consider it part of my continued efforts to help our struggling economy. B)
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BTown11 Oct 22 2008, 03:06 PM Post #29
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BoilerNLA
Oct 22 2008, 02:39 PM
These polls actually scare me a bit. I don't trust them. No one knows which candidate will be chosen on November 4th.

Just curious, have anyone of you ever participated in any of these polls? I haven't. I assume these polls are done over the phone (?)
I never answer my land line unless I recognize the phone number.
i have my landline attached to my cell phone. i got called just last week to participate in an indiana poll.
Death to Signatures.
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BoilerNLA Oct 22 2008, 03:09 PM Post #30
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BTown8
Oct 22 2008, 03:06 PM
BoilerNLA
Oct 22 2008, 02:39 PM
These polls actually scare me a bit. I don't trust them. No one knows which candidate will be chosen on November 4th.

Just curious, have anyone of you ever participated in any of these polls? I haven't. I assume these polls are done over the phone (?)
I never answer my land line unless I recognize the phone number.
i have my landline attached to my cell phone. i got called just last week to participate in an indiana poll.
a funny thing about cell phones... I "held out" on getting one until 1998... now, I can't imagine life without one!
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