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| The Official Polls Thread; daily update | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Oct 22 2008, 08:25 AM (1,096 Views) | |
| BoilerNLA | Oct 23 2008, 09:30 AM Post #46 |
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Coach
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WASHINGTON (Oct. 22) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch. The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord. |
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| brumdog44 | Oct 23 2008, 09:43 AM Post #47 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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The funny thing is that there are organizations that will write their article as if they are in a bubble and their poll is the only one available. CBS poll had Obama +14, Mason-Dixon had it +1. The truth always lies somewhere in between. I will continue to champion Gallup and Rasmussen as the only polls that really matter because of their non-partisianship and surveying techniques. Point blank, CBS and Mason-Dixon are both wrong. |
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| brumdog44 | Oct 23 2008, 09:50 AM Post #48 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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Don't worry about Zogby. Gallup has two models, both with over 2,000 people polled over three days, for "likely voters." The first is the 'traditional poll' which is based on traditional demographics of those that show up at the polls; the expanded poll is how they see the demographics actually occuring. You'll also notice that in the Gallup and Rasmussen polls you never see the wide day to day swings. |
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| boilergrad01 | Oct 23 2008, 09:53 AM Post #49 |
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Working on the last 5
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Brum, You skip school today??????? |
| Nothing beats an Astronaut | |
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| boilergrad01 | Oct 23 2008, 01:02 PM Post #50 |
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Working on the last 5
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Gallup is my friend today Zogby is out in the rain. Gallup either way is better than the Rassy. Zogby is out to lunch somehow wierd but Gallup was big on Obama Monday and Zogby was high on McCain now by Thursday Gallup has it at 4pt Zogby has it at 12 pts A complete reversal. i feel good today that things are moving in the right direction. Things can change in a hurry in politics |
| Nothing beats an Astronaut | |
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| brumdog44 | Oct 23 2008, 01:10 PM Post #51 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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Didn't skip school..fall break. Pretty much all schools have a three or four day weekend this week. Gallup at +4/+6 in the two models, Rasmussen at +7. The average of the two models is typically what Gallup goes by. The average of the Gallup and Rasmussen polls has pretty much been between the +5 and +6 marks the past month. A couple of days say McCain get a little closer than that, a couple of days saw it go higher than that. The face is basically a 5/6 point race among likely voters...which doesn't trend well for McCain IMO because I believe that you are going to see a higher democrat turnout than normal. Lars has called Obama the "messiah" for months and says that african americans are voting for him because of race, so to assume that people aren't going to be turning out in record droves to vote for him is wishful thinking. |
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| boilergrad01 | Oct 23 2008, 01:13 PM Post #52 |
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Working on the last 5
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Brum did you see my response to your bet and do you agree to my terms |
| Nothing beats an Astronaut | |
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| brumdog44 | Oct 23 2008, 10:08 PM Post #53 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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bg, remember when you said to watch Minnesota? Today: Rasmussen poll, Obama +15 in Minnesota McCain has cut way back on advertising in Colorado, basically conceding the race there. Real clear politics averages today nationally: Obama +7.5 |
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| boilergrad01 | Oct 23 2008, 10:14 PM Post #54 |
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Working on the last 5
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Thanks Brum I was so unaware. The 7.5 is because of some outliers. Minnesota I give that one up. Colorado McCain has not given up on Colorado. McCain has two stops planned in Colorado tomorrow. I have no idea what we are doing in Iowa. Iowa is a no chance state the Ethanol vote killed him years ago I would be more shocked than you if we won Iowa. I know of no close Congressional races worth defending. Iowa is nuts we need to be in Missouri Ohio Dropping Michigan but staying with Iowa I will never get |
| Nothing beats an Astronaut | |
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| brumdog44 | Oct 23 2008, 10:23 PM Post #55 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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You can look it up for yourself, but McCain has pulled ads from the three largest t.v. stations in Colorado. His spending on ads in Colorado has dropped off 46% since last month. The 7.5 number from real clear politics is an average. It's not outliers that are doing that...11 of the 15 polls have Obama at 5 or higher. Fox News has it at +9. Throw out the two lowest polls and the two highest polls, and the average is 7.6. Money is becoming an issue for McCain. As of October 15, the McCain campaign only had about $25 million to spend. Their spending rate at the beginning of the month was $1.5 million/day, and if they kept that rate up they would only have $12 million to spend for the last 11 days of the campaign. To be honest with you, I believe the GOP has been faced with a decision of funding McCain's campaign or congress and senate battles in close races and is choosing to divert money toward the races in congress. The McCain campaign and the GOP have a total of $84 million to spend from October 15th to Nov 4th, and under finance laws at most $25 million could go to the McCain campaign. I wonder if the decision to have a very low key election night in Arizona is part of the GOP's decision to spend heavily on congress races. Edited by brumdog44, Oct 23 2008, 10:29 PM.
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| boilergrad01 | Oct 23 2008, 10:26 PM Post #56 |
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Working on the last 5
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Well Brum maybe Obama wins. He is the favorite and is leading. I am gonna fight to the finish if I was Tiller i would be thinking about where to go for dinner but I choose to work until the finish. |
| Nothing beats an Astronaut | |
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| md11flyer | Oct 23 2008, 10:26 PM Post #57 |
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Assistant Coach
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McCain has had to cut back everywhere because he lived up to his word on public campaign funds. An agreement also signed by Obama when he was not doing so well early on. You really can buy an election. By the way, don't miss your darlings heartfelt interview with Robin Roberts tomorrow on GMA. What a guy, stopping his campaign to visit his ailing grandmother. Wait, didn't he throw her under the bus several weeks ago for something she said? Doesn't matter, what a guy! |
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| sirbrianwilson | Oct 23 2008, 11:26 PM Post #58 |
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Stemlerite
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do you guys even know what differentiates zogby from the rest of the polls? i bet not. yet...i'm sure you'll all go on their website for the first time, read up about their methodology, then pretend like you've known all along. get educated. read a book. br |
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| brumdog44 | Oct 24 2008, 12:14 AM Post #59 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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McCain doesn't have the ability to raise the same kind of $ that Obama can. If he did, he'd would have signed off as well. Grapes sure are getting real sour this time of year. |
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| boilergrad01 | Oct 24 2008, 12:15 AM Post #60 |
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Working on the last 5
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Sir Brian, I read it 2 days ago. Mr Zogby explains it and he now figures in early voting and a few extra variables. He has pool and drops 400 respondents a day and adds 400 new ones every day but he does evening polling and mid day so it tracks alittle differently. IBD was the most accurate in 2004. Look either way no matter how you look at it this is a very hard year to poll. CNN reported tonight young voters are not turning out at a high level in early polling. The Rush brillant idea of Operation Choas has affected Dem registration and the Hillary people increased Dem reg. Many Hillary supporters are staying at home possibly. The cross registration hurts McCain polling in states like Ohio and Penn. Colorado was a super Tuesday state so it doesn't factor in. New Hapmshire is open and the Dems dominated regstration in NH so that state polling is off. NC was a big Choas state so it is off. Virginia was a Feb state so the registration is accurate and Mark Warner is very popular I think McCain is in trouble in Virginia. I have felt that way since Feb and begged the Team McCain to push hard there for along time. Colorado has more Indies than party identified voters so it is hard to poll but I give Obama the lead there. The likely voter thing might not be accurate because past qualifications do not apply this year. I will admit team Obama has run a better race. Bottum line it is a tough year to poll but I give the advantage to Obama right now. |
| Nothing beats an Astronaut | |
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