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The Official Polls Thread; daily update
Tweet Topic Started: Oct 22 2008, 08:25 AM (1,095 Views)
sirbrianwilson Oct 24 2008, 12:29 AM Post #61
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boilergrad01
Oct 24 2008, 12:15 AM
sirbrianwilson
Oct 23 2008, 11:26 PM
do you guys even know what differentiates zogby from the rest of the polls? i bet not.

yet...i'm sure you'll all go on their website for the first time, read up about their methodology, then pretend like you've known all along.

get educated. read a book.

br
Sir Brian,

I read it 2 days ago. Mr Zogby explains it and he now figures in early voting and a few extra variables. He has pool and drops 400 respondents a day and adds 400 new ones every day but he does evening polling and mid day so it tracks alittle differently.

IBD was the most accurate in 2004.

Look either way no matter how you look at it this is a very hard year to poll. CNN reported tonight young voters are not turning out at a high level in early polling. The Rush brillant idea of Operation Choas has affected Dem registration and the Hillary people increased Dem reg. Many Hillary supporters are staying at home possibly. The cross registration hurts McCain polling in states like Ohio and Penn. Colorado was a super Tuesday state so it doesn't factor in. New Hapmshire is open and the Dems dominated regstration in NH so that state polling is off.
NC was a big Choas state so it is off.

Virginia was a Feb state so the registration is accurate and Mark Warner is very popular I think McCain is in trouble in Virginia. I have felt that way since Feb and begged the Team McCain to push hard there for along time.
Colorado has more Indies than party identified voters so it is hard to poll but I give Obama the lead there.
The likely voter thing might not be accurate because past qualifications do not apply this year.

I will admit team Obama has run a better race.

Bottum line it is a tough year to poll but I give the advantage to Obama right now.
completely wrong. you obviously didn't read anything given that you completely overlooked the single-most significant difference between zogby and every single other poll that is out there. it's all in the methodology...

here's a hint: read the questions he asks. it has nothing to do with early voting.

don't try to pretend like you read something about it because if you actually did, then you'd know exactly what i'm talking about because it's the entire essence of the institution.

br
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boilergrad01 Oct 24 2008, 12:34 AM Post #62
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Survey Methodology [Reuters/CSPAN Zogby National Tracking Likely Voters] 10/20/08 thru 10/23/08


Zogby International was commissioned by [Reuters and C-Span] to conduct a telephone survey of [likely voters].

The sample is [1203 likely voters] interviews with approximately [48] questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cd’s of national listed sample. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR’s approved methodologies[1] and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.[2] Weighting by [region, party, age, race, religion, gender] is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.


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brumdog44 Oct 24 2008, 01:02 AM Post #63
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Interesting site, tracks early voters:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Huge early voting numbers from North Carolina and Nevada already in. Trending data does show older votes BUT also highly democratic and highly female in North Carolina. Ages not listed for Nevada but again voting turnout has trended highly democratic.
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boilergrad01 Oct 24 2008, 01:06 AM Post #64
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I know McCain has one vote in North Carolina
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brumdog44 Oct 24 2008, 01:11 AM Post #65
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boilergrad01
Oct 24 2008, 01:06 AM
I know McCain has one vote in North Carolina
bg, your vote is supposed to be a secret ballot. :P
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boilergrad01 Oct 24 2008, 01:13 AM Post #66
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brum McCain closed the gap in Zogby but only down to 10pt 51.3 to 41.0 RCP has been posting in rounded numbers so it should post at 51% to 41% a 2% gain in one day at least we stopped the bleeding now we need to repair whatever damage we did to dig the hole since it closed to 3 on Saturday.
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sirbrianwilson Oct 24 2008, 01:44 AM Post #67
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boilergrad01
Oct 24 2008, 12:34 AM
Survey Methodology [Reuters/CSPAN Zogby National Tracking Likely Voters] 10/20/08 thru 10/23/08


Zogby International was commissioned by [Reuters and C-Span] to conduct a telephone survey of [likely voters].

The sample is [1203 likely voters] interviews with approximately [48] questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cd’s of national listed sample. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR’s approved methodologies[1] and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.[2] Weighting by [region, party, age, race, religion, gender] is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.


yes...that's the beginning...but the hefty difference would be...?

don't you ever wonder, "hmm...this poll reports X. i wonder what questions they asked to obtain those results"?

seriously, zogby practically invented a polling technique. it's the sole reason why they have ever received recognition. if they didn't operate under the yet-to-be-named methodology, no one would know who they are because they would be just like every other polling institution.

point being...it doesn't matter whether you know the answer to this or not. but what DOES matter is that you finally join the ranks of an informed public. you're taking these numbers at face value and not asking any questions. that is a recipe for disaster. it doesn't entirely surprise me given your military background. they train you to not question and that can come in handy in many different scenarios. but what we're talking about here is something so fundamental anyone with a gradeschool understanding of the scientific process is able to identify.

so, my suggestion...spend a little more time reading. educate yourself. read a book or two.

br
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boilergrad01 Oct 24 2008, 01:52 AM Post #68
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Sir Bri,

They taught us to question as Officers as enlisted you can question but will do what they say anyway. I use to argue with Majors and LTC all the time if I believed I was correct but that is a case by case basis. I forged the first Kurdish Arab union and succesfully targeted and detained (the legal term for capturing insurgents) the highest rate in the Brigade so my LTC gave me a little slack. I once told a full bird I was not his Bitch and threw a pen off the wall becuase he was so wrong. I agree few would stand up like that or get away with such an antic. That was a huge problem in Iraq pre Gen P. Some English Officer wrote about it in how in the US Military we value rank over talent. I was extremely talented at what I did over there and it was not shooting. Gen P when he arrived started placing people by ability not rank and you see the results. I could go on for ever on fundamental problems in the Army hence I left a very bright future behind. I love the concept and the members as people but it has many institutional flaws that I could not fix. I have the ability to question things and have read the differnt methodologies of many different polls maybe not in depth enough. I am kinda busy as a co chair and trying to run a regional office and fucking around on here.
Edited by boilergrad01, Oct 24 2008, 01:56 AM.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 24 2008, 10:20 AM Post #69
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By any chance, has anyone seen the RCP Eletoral map today.

With tossups
Obama 306 -- McCain 157 -- Tossup 75


Without tossups
Obama 375 -- McCain 163
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brumdog44 Oct 24 2008, 10:28 AM Post #70
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boilergrad01
Oct 24 2008, 01:13 AM
brum McCain closed the gap in Zogby but only down to 10pt 51.3 to 41.0 RCP has been posting in rounded numbers so it should post at 51% to 41% a 2% gain in one day at least we stopped the bleeding now we need to repair whatever damage we did to dig the hole since it closed to 3 on Saturday.
Honestly, bg, don't worry at all about Zogby. It truly doesn't survey a cross-section that is representative of the country. I'm not saying that it is bias, but people they survey are ones that have registered with their organization. That's part of the reason that you see such wide swings in their numbers. They've had it Obama by 1 and Obama by 12 within a seven day period.
Edited by brumdog44, Oct 24 2008, 10:32 AM.
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boilergrad01 Oct 24 2008, 10:36 AM Post #71
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Brum where were you late last night Sir Bri was all about the zogby claiming they have a secret secret elemeatary fromula that makes them the best. I post what they had on the website and he said no no you must read books. He didn't what book so I read read a couple of chapters from "Persecution" "How liberals are waging war against Christianity" It said right there on page four they use the Zogby Poll to mislead mid 30 McCain supporters who served in Iraq and are drinking Busch Light beer. Wow I got lucky picking that book. The answer was right there.
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Mr Gray Oct 24 2008, 10:42 AM Post #72
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boilergrad01
Oct 24 2008, 10:36 AM
Brum where were you late last night Sir Bri was all about the zogby claiming they have a secret secret elemeatary fromula that makes them the best. I post what they had on the website and he said no no you must read books. He didn't what book so I read read a couple of chapters from "Persecution" "How liberals are waging war against Christianity" It said right there on page four they use the Zogby Poll to mislead mid 30 McCain supporters who served in Iraq and are drinking Busch Light beer. Wow I got lucky picking that book. The answer was right there.
:rofl: Look at you ......coming out of your shell and providing some humor. You've got me cracking up over here.

"no no, you must read books"...... :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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brumdog44 Oct 24 2008, 10:54 AM Post #73
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boilergrad01
Oct 24 2008, 10:36 AM
Brum where were you late last night Sir Bri was all about the zogby claiming they have a secret secret elemeatary fromula that makes them the best. I post what they had on the website and he said no no you must read books. He didn't what book so I read read a couple of chapters from "Persecution" "How liberals are waging war against Christianity" It said right there on page four they use the Zogby Poll to mislead mid 30 McCain supporters who served in Iraq and are drinking Busch Light beer. Wow I got lucky picking that book. The answer was right there.
I have an unwavering support for Gallup and Rasmussen in terms of polling. Sometimes other organizations will come closer in the final prediction of the election and then tout themselves as the best, but no one consistently is better than Gallup and Rasmussen.

Did you know that something as simple as changing which candidate you list first in a poll has an affect on the outcome of a survey? R & G both do and they alternate who they list first. They also have close to 3000 people they poll on their surveys (some organizations use only 600).

In the same day, you can open a paper and read that the race is a dead heat (the day McCain was within one in the Ap poll) and in another paper Obama has a 14 point lead (the CBS poll), you know that there is something internally wrong with at least one (and actually both) polls.
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boilergrad01 Oct 24 2008, 12:45 PM Post #74
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brum you might wanna start writing my source and i have no idea where he gets these numbers from. Claims Penn is within the margin of error and tracking toward McCain.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 24 2008, 01:10 PM Post #75
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boilergrad01
Oct 24 2008, 12:45 PM
brum you might wanna start writing my source and i have no idea where he gets these numbers from. Claims Penn is within the margin of error and tracking toward McCain.
Is this source McCain himself? I would bet that the actual spread in Penn is closer that what the poll averages are showing, but in the margin of error and tracking toward McCain? I highly doubt that.

Here is the trend line from Pollster today.

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That looks awfully far away from in the margin of error and trending McCain.
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