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The Official Polls Thread; daily update
Tweet Topic Started: Oct 22 2008, 08:25 AM (1,094 Views)
brumdog44 Oct 24 2008, 02:38 PM Post #76
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hoosierinhogville
Oct 24 2008, 01:10 PM
boilergrad01
Oct 24 2008, 12:45 PM
brum you might wanna start writing my source and i have no idea where he gets these numbers from. Claims Penn is within the margin of error and tracking toward McCain.
Is this source McCain himself? I would bet that the actual spread in Penn is closer that what the poll averages are showing, but in the margin of error and tracking toward McCain? I highly doubt that.

Here is the trend line from Pollster today.

Posted Image

That looks awfully far away from in the margin of error and trending McCain.
If you are a McCain backer, don't check out Georgia's polls. He'll win the state....pretty dang hard for a republican not to...but polls showing Obama within 5 there.

Methinks you need to start working on your nage speech, bg.
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Mr Gray Oct 24 2008, 02:41 PM Post #77
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I just polled the people who work for me again, they haven't changed.....just an FYI
Edited by Mr Gray, Oct 24 2008, 02:42 PM.
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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boilergrad01 Oct 24 2008, 02:42 PM Post #78
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Easy Eddie is begging Obama to come back to Penn
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hoosierinhogville Oct 24 2008, 02:49 PM Post #79
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boilergrad01
Oct 24 2008, 02:42 PM
Easy Eddie is begging Obama to come back to Penn
That may be, and I conceded that it is probably closer than the polls show, but I have seen 11 or 12 polls put out by 5 or 6 different organizations, and they are all in favor of Obama by close to double digits, so I just don't see where your source is getting that is that close.
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boilergrad01 Oct 24 2008, 03:18 PM Post #80
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John Elway endorsed McCain in Denver today. Not sure if he still carries weight in Colorado but we need all we can get there
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boilergrad01 Oct 24 2008, 03:22 PM Post #81
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hoosierinhogville
Oct 24 2008, 02:49 PM
boilergrad01
Oct 24 2008, 02:42 PM
Easy Eddie is begging Obama to come back to Penn
That may be, and I conceded that it is probably closer than the polls show, but I have seen 11 or 12 polls put out by 5 or 6 different organizations, and they are all in favor of Obama by close to double digits, so I just don't see where your source is getting that is that close.
Karl Rove on Fox the other night referred to private polling. I am not sure what that is but like I said Easy Eddy said Obama needed to return to Philly. Philly is the stronhghold for Obama in Penn. I know Gov Ridge Rudy and Lynn Swan are all working really hard for the Senator. Murtha race is now tied maybe McCain in the internals has gained alot of ground in that district. I do not know how they get these numbers just that what I was told. I never saw them.
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sirbrianwilson Oct 25 2008, 12:13 AM Post #82
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here it is:

zogby is an interesting poll that should never be thrown in an rcp-mix given that their methodology is completely unrelated to most other pollsters. zogby is a smart dude that developed a new methodology for "predicting" how someone would vote. what you'll find is that most polls survey an average of 300 people in a statewide poll. the reason why they choose 300 is because that's the point where the margin of error (something that is grossly overlooked) begins to slowly decline when you input a larger N. that said...most polling institutions will ask questions like, "if today were election day, who would you vote for?" zogby is 100% different from those companies (yes, polling is a business...and a lucrative one). zogby came up with an idea where he associated different beliefs/values/habits with voting habits. so, instead of asking who someone wants to vote for, zogby asks questions like, "if you managed a highly successful business, do you feel it would be your obligation to give back a percentage of your income to help all the employees under you?" or "i feel experience is the number one concern in this election." or "do you believe health insurance is a fundamental right of all american citizens?" they then take these responses and categorize respondents into different groups (mccain camp/obama camp/undecided camp). next, they calculate their results by simply running a regression, then converting the r-values into percentages. that gives them both a result and a margin (p-value).

this is the very reason why zogby swings like a mother-fucker. their methodology is completely different than every other major institution out there. they are essentially attempting to shift the polling paradigm to a more social-scientific approach.

not many people take the time to research into this and most MSM institutions are too stupid to even comprehend the fact that different pollsters use different methods. RCP is a pure meta-analysis site. it has its pros and cons but by no means is it an end-all when making a generalization.

i hope this post maybe will give you a perspective when it comes to interpreting another person's data. methodology is everything.

br
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hoosierinhogville Oct 25 2008, 10:49 AM Post #83
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sirbrianwilson
Oct 25 2008, 12:13 AM
here it is:

zogby is an interesting poll that should never be thrown in an rcp-mix given that their methodology is completely unrelated to most other pollsters. zogby is a smart dude that developed a new methodology for "predicting" how someone would vote. what you'll find is that most polls survey an average of 300 people in a statewide poll. the reason why they choose 300 is because that's the point where the margin of error (something that is grossly overlooked) begins to slowly decline when you input a larger N. that said...most polling institutions will ask questions like, "if today were election day, who would you vote for?" zogby is 100% different from those companies (yes, polling is a business...and a lucrative one). zogby came up with an idea where he associated different beliefs/values/habits with voting habits. so, instead of asking who someone wants to vote for, zogby asks questions like, "if you managed a highly successful business, do you feel it would be your obligation to give back a percentage of your income to help all the employees under you?" or "i feel experience is the number one concern in this election." or "do you believe health insurance is a fundamental right of all american citizens?" they then take these responses and categorize respondents into different groups (mccain camp/obama camp/undecided camp). next, they calculate their results by simply running a regression, then converting the r-values into percentages. that gives them both a result and a margin (p-value).

this is the very reason why zogby swings like a mother-fucker. their methodology is completely different than every other major institution out there. they are essentially attempting to shift the polling paradigm to a more social-scientific approach.

not many people take the time to research into this and most MSM institutions are too stupid to even comprehend the fact that different pollsters use different methods. RCP is a pure meta-analysis site. it has its pros and cons but by no means is it an end-all when making a generalization.

i hope this post maybe will give you a perspective when it comes to interpreting another person's data. methodology is everything.

br
I would say that is pretty enlightening Bri. We probably all have read the stories where someone has asked how they feel on a certain issue or about a certain quote, then are told that it is attributed to the other candidate and the person responds that they are still voting for their candidate anyway.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 25 2008, 10:51 AM Post #84
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boilergrad01
Oct 24 2008, 03:22 PM
Karl Rove on Fox the other night referred to private polling. I am not sure what that is but like I said Easy Eddy said Obama needed to return to Philly. Philly is the stronhghold for Obama in Penn. I know Gov Ridge Rudy and Lynn Swan are all working really hard for the Senator. Murtha race is now tied maybe McCain in the internals has gained alot of ground in that district. I do not know how they get these numbers just that what I was told. I never saw them.
I'm not doubt YOU BG. And I am not tring to argue the point just because I predicted Obama to win. It just doesn't make sense that all these other polls would be so wrong and theirs is the only one that is so right. It just sounds to good to be true for the McCain camp.
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brumdog44 Oct 25 2008, 12:10 PM Post #85
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sirbrianwilson
Oct 25 2008, 12:13 AM
here it is:

zogby is an interesting poll that should never be thrown in an rcp-mix given that their methodology is completely unrelated to most other pollsters. zogby is a smart dude that developed a new methodology for "predicting" how someone would vote. what you'll find is that most polls survey an average of 300 people in a statewide poll. the reason why they choose 300 is because that's the point where the margin of error (something that is grossly overlooked) begins to slowly decline when you input a larger N. that said...most polling institutions will ask questions like, "if today were election day, who would you vote for?" zogby is 100% different from those companies (yes, polling is a business...and a lucrative one). zogby came up with an idea where he associated different beliefs/values/habits with voting habits. so, instead of asking who someone wants to vote for, zogby asks questions like, "if you managed a highly successful business, do you feel it would be your obligation to give back a percentage of your income to help all the employees under you?" or "i feel experience is the number one concern in this election." or "do you believe health insurance is a fundamental right of all american citizens?" they then take these responses and categorize respondents into different groups (mccain camp/obama camp/undecided camp). next, they calculate their results by simply running a regression, then converting the r-values into percentages. that gives them both a result and a margin (p-value).

this is the very reason why zogby swings like a mother-fucker. their methodology is completely different than every other major institution out there. they are essentially attempting to shift the polling paradigm to a more social-scientific approach.

not many people take the time to research into this and most MSM institutions are too stupid to even comprehend the fact that different pollsters use different methods. RCP is a pure meta-analysis site. it has its pros and cons but by no means is it an end-all when making a generalization.

i hope this post maybe will give you a perspective when it comes to interpreting another person's data. methodology is everything.

br
I know that they do this but wasn't aware that they did this on their presidential polls.

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brumdog44 Oct 25 2008, 12:23 PM Post #86
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Rasmussen has moved to Obama 52, McCain 44 today. Ties largest descrepancy in October.

Gallup has it's two likely voter models at +7 and +8 for Obama.

Not a good day for McCain in the polls.

I'll toast you for your hard work on the night of the 4th, bg.
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dreachon Oct 25 2008, 09:01 PM Post #87
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Good news for you BG. Found this article that claims an internal poll by Obama's campaign has found he leads by only 2% in Penn.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/pennsylvania-in.html
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boilergrad01 Oct 26 2008, 04:59 AM Post #88
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Thank you Dreach.
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boilergrad01 Oct 27 2008, 10:16 AM Post #89
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Rassy + 5 for Obama and Zogby +5 for Obama GWU + 3 I am sure by days end the networks will release polls saying it is a 8-10 pt race. Gallup had it + 5 yesterday so I would say it is a 4-5 pt race with 8 days to go. Salon.com has an interesting article up about undecideds so we will see next Tuesday but NC Florida NV and OH look like McCain has a shot. Virginia the polls vary greatly so i still say Obama lean. Missouri will be a long night. They are on central time plus St Loius county where Obama will do well always holds returns until late.
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brumdog44 Oct 27 2008, 05:11 PM Post #90
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boilergrad01
Oct 27 2008, 10:16 AM
Rassy + 5 for Obama and Zogby +5 for Obama GWU + 3 I am sure by days end the networks will release polls saying it is a 8-10 pt race. Gallup had it + 5 yesterday so I would say it is a 4-5 pt race with 8 days to go. Salon.com has an interesting article up about undecideds so we will see next Tuesday but NC Florida NV and OH look like McCain has a shot. Virginia the polls vary greatly so i still say Obama lean. Missouri will be a long night. They are on central time plus St Loius county where Obama will do well always holds returns until late.
You can keeping rubbing the lamp, bg, but the genie's don't exist.

And you continue to cherry-pick your polls.

Gallup's two models have it at +5 and +10 for Obama. When citing their overall number, they average their two polls, so they are at 7.5.

And Zogby, personally, can s*ck my dick.

I recieved a call yesterday from a polling organization that had to be Zogby. The give away: I was asked about 100 questions of which about 10 were political and NONE asked who I would be voting for, only a favorability rating of each. There were crap questions about what temperature of water I use when I boil pasta, how many gifts I plan to buy each family member for christmas, and other incredibly stupid things. After 20 minutes, I told them I had to go and asked how much longer it would be. He said "only about 10 more minutes"....at which point he got to hear the dial tone.
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