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The Official Polls Thread; daily update
Tweet Topic Started: Oct 22 2008, 08:25 AM (1,093 Views)
brumdog44 Oct 27 2008, 05:12 PM Post #91
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aaronk2727
Oct 24 2008, 02:41 PM
I just polled the people who work for me again, they haven't changed.....just an FYI
I pulled the people I work with, and depending on the spot I pulled, they were either ticked off or mildly curious.
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boilergrad01 Oct 28 2008, 08:41 AM Post #92
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Hog,

The Zogby which i attacked last week and i think Sir Brian defended has it at 4 pts. They swing pretty dramtically. Rassy holds at 5 for Obama We are really where we where last week McCain has positive polls and then the evening polls prop up the big Obama lead.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 28 2008, 08:44 AM Post #93
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boilergrad01
Oct 28 2008, 08:41 AM
We are really where we where last week McCain has positive polls and then the evening polls prop up the big Obama lead.
Well that isn't good news for McCain. The 2 main polls basically have it as a 5-7 race. Taking that, and the electoral map together, it doesn't look good for McCain.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 28 2008, 10:52 AM Post #94
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hoosierinhogville
Oct 28 2008, 08:44 AM
boilergrad01
Oct 28 2008, 08:41 AM
We are really where we where last week McCain has positive polls and then the evening polls prop up the big Obama lead.
Well that isn't good news for McCain. The 2 main polls basically have it as a 5-7 race. Taking that, and the electoral map together, it doesn't look good for McCain.
And speaking of the electoral college BG, stayed tuned, I am going to make my post shortly, on where the electoral college stands, and where I think it needs to be for McCain to have a legitimate shot come tuesday.
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BoilerNLA Oct 28 2008, 11:37 AM Post #95
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I polled my friends who are veterans or active military.

2 marines, one of which is a recently retired career marine and a lifelong republican: both are voting for Obama (Colin Powell swung the vote of the republican)

3 Navy (one a veteran of 2 wars, another a veteran of Desert Storm): Obama

1 Army (currently in Afghanistan): Barr
Edited by BoilerNLA, Oct 28 2008, 11:38 AM.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 28 2008, 01:06 PM Post #96
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A couple more Poll related items.
First comes this from Pew. In the latest Pew Poll (which I question a bit) they asked repondants if they have already voted in the early voting period. Here is what they came up with. Just as ominous for the Republican candidate, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16% of voters), 56% support Obama, while 37% support McCain. Link here.

Next, Politico has released the results of their latest poll in CO and PA. Link here. In CO, Obama is up by 8, and he is up by 9 in PA. Neither Pollster nor RCP have the poll factored into their state averages yet, so I can't show the new trend line, but it should hold steady in PA, and continue the upward trend in CO.
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Mr Gray Oct 28 2008, 01:23 PM Post #97
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I just talked to my buddy who works for Lt. Governor Becky Skillman, and they ran some research on Obama supporters in the Indianapolis area. They gathered up a few hundred addresses where they found Obama yard signs, and checked voter registration data, and 20% of those addressed didn't have a registered voter living there. Hmmmmm
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 28 2008, 01:53 PM Post #98
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aaronk2727
Oct 28 2008, 01:23 PM
I just talked to my buddy who works for Lt. Governor Becky Skillman, and they ran some research on Obama supporters in the Indianapolis area. They gathered up a few hundred addresses where they found Obama yard signs, and checked voter registration data, and 20% of those addressed didn't have a registered voter living there. Hmmmmm
So, what's your point? I have known people that have never voted in their life and have had yard signs on both sides of the aisle.
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brumdog44 Oct 28 2008, 04:11 PM Post #99
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Rasmussen held steady today at +5, Gallup moved slightly McCain's way with the average of the two likely voter models at +4.5 for Obama.

I still think we have a 5 to 7 point race...the 4.5 blip on Gallup followed about an 8 point blip the other way a few days ago, and I expect reality is in between.

"swing state poll" today on Rasmussen:

Obama +4 in Ohio.
Obama +1 in Missouri.
Obama +4 in Florida
McCain +1 in NC
Obama +4 in Virginia
Obama +4 in Nevada

And for bg, Obama +7 in PA.

Edited by brumdog44, Oct 28 2008, 04:14 PM.
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boilergrad01 Oct 29 2008, 12:18 PM Post #100
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Rassy +3
Gallup the good version +3 Obama version +7
Zogby + 5
GWU +3

Obama is still in the lead but is running on fumes

keep your fingers crossed
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hoosierinhogville Oct 29 2008, 12:26 PM Post #101
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boilergrad01
Oct 29 2008, 12:18 PM
Rassy +3
Gallup the good version +3 Obama version +7
Zogby + 5
GWU +3

Obama is still in the lead but is running on fumes

keep your fingers crossed
It is still +6 in the average. How is that running on fumes?
by the way, new Penn poll out today Obama +13.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 29 2008, 12:29 PM Post #102
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hoosierinhogville
Oct 29 2008, 12:26 PM
boilergrad01
Oct 29 2008, 12:18 PM
Rassy +3
Gallup the good version +3 Obama version +7
Zogby + 5
GWU +3

Obama is still in the lead but is running on fumes

keep your fingers crossed
It is still +6 in the average. How is that running on fumes?
by the way, new Penn poll out today Obama +13.
Correction. Several new Penn polls out today. Obama is back up 11 in the average there.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 29 2008, 12:32 PM Post #103
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Here is Jonathan Martin from Politico's take on the new Penn poll

Barack Obama is up 53-40 over John McCain among likely voters in Pennsylvania, according to a poll released today by Franklin & Marshall College.

F&M surveys the state regularly and is considered one of the most reliable indicators of Keystone State voter inclinations.

The poll was, however, taken between the 21st and 26th so there may have been some movement since.

Regardless, the McCain camp's (last?) hope at this point is that nobody knows how to sample this electorate and the polls are unreliable.
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boilergrad01 Oct 29 2008, 12:46 PM Post #104
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RCP is +6 because of the Pew Research outlier or fraudulent poll giving Obama a + 15 point lead.

Penn has the polls wrong according to the internals. Go read blogs they are entertaining and Penn has a large Puma movement and no early voting.

Penn
Bitter people cling to guns Catholic priest supporting McCain JoPa endorsed McCain
Gov Ridge left Penn yesterday to come to NC. if he left he must feel good about it. Arlon Spector has endorsed McCain and Rick Sandstorm has also. Murtha is in trouble now.
Lynn Swan is working hard in Pittsburg. Huge rally at PSU last night even CNN called PSU a McCain stronghold. Polls can be wrong and the Penn polls are wrong Rassy had it at 7 yesterday. I believe Team McCain in ascending into Penn this weekend. I hope for a game 7 Sunday night and it goes 16 innings. The baseball thing is a joke.

You just leave me to my delusions.
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boilergrad01 Oct 29 2008, 12:53 PM Post #105
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Hog,

take out the Pew retaated poll it is a 4.89 differnece
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