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The Official Polls Thread; daily update
Tweet Topic Started: Oct 22 2008, 08:25 AM (1,091 Views)
brumdog44 Oct 29 2008, 06:32 PM Post #121
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hoosierinhogville
Oct 29 2008, 01:06 PM
boilergrad01
Oct 29 2008, 12:46 PM
Penn has the polls wrong according to the internals.
That's the thing. You are basing a McCain victory on the assumption that like 15 polls, done by like 7 different organizations are ALL wrong, and your guys poll is the only one right. Yeah I guess you could be right, like the magic 8 ball says - signs point to no.
The polls that both sides hear about are going to make states closer than they actually are. It keeps campaign workers working and keeps people voting.

Don't for a second think that the Obama poll that was accidentally was actually an 'accident' nor that it their polls actually showed a two point race. Partisian polling is a different beast than non-partisian.
Edited by brumdog44, Oct 29 2008, 06:33 PM.
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sirbrianwilson Oct 30 2008, 08:33 AM Post #122
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brumdog44
Oct 29 2008, 06:32 PM
hoosierinhogville
Oct 29 2008, 01:06 PM
boilergrad01
Oct 29 2008, 12:46 PM
Penn has the polls wrong according to the internals.
That's the thing. You are basing a McCain victory on the assumption that like 15 polls, done by like 7 different organizations are ALL wrong, and your guys poll is the only one right. Yeah I guess you could be right, like the magic 8 ball says - signs point to no.
The polls that both sides hear about are going to make states closer than they actually are. It keeps campaign workers working and keeps people voting.

Don't for a second think that the Obama poll that was accidentally was actually an 'accident' nor that it their polls actually showed a two point race. Partisian polling is a different beast than non-partisian.
the obama poll was an internet poll.

end of discussion.

br
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hoosierinhogville Oct 30 2008, 08:47 AM Post #123
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BG it looks like you finally get what you want. A low poll in Penn. Mason-Dixon has it at Obama +4. I don't really know much about Mason-Dixon, so I can't speak as to the accuracy. It has been my contention that the race in Penn is closer than the polls make it clear, but I still think that +4 is an outlier. At this time, based on poll results, reports I have read on the internet, and my gut instinct(yeah i know, real scientific) I would guess the race is really similar to what the national picture is. Right around +6 or +7.
Edited by hoosierinhogville, Oct 30 2008, 08:47 AM.
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boilergrad01 Oct 30 2008, 01:05 PM Post #124
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I saw that hog. We are within striking distance in all the states we need. Colorado Penn Virginia have all closed. I understand we are strong in NC I live in Raleigh a liberal paradise and we have alot of dems for McCains here. Unless they are Rep afraid to admit they support McCain and ask for the Dems for McCain stuff. I went to a very liberal area for lunch today and had lunch with a Vet. We had some McCain stuff on and some bumper stickers. People came over too the bumper stickers many said they where dems and had already voted and went with our guy. Maybe they are fibbing to be nice I don't know.

Penn

You do not believe me it must mean you believe I am either

1. Not honest
2. Delusional
3. really stupid.

I guess we will see on the 4th.

National Polls showed some slippage.

Nothing beats an Astronaut
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hoosierinhogville Oct 30 2008, 01:22 PM Post #125
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boilergrad01
Oct 30 2008, 01:05 PM
Penn

You do not believe me it must mean you believe I am either

1. Not honest
2. Delusional
3. really stupid.

I guess we will see on the 4th.



I don't think you are any of those. I just think you are a true believer and it tends to bias your opinion. There is nothing wrong with that. And as I have said several times. I do think the race is closer than the polss show. I can't bring myself to believe that it within the margin of error though simply because so many polls have Obama ahead by so much.

On the CO and VA thing, I haven't checked today, but as of yesterday VA is holding pretty steady, and according to every sight I have seen, Obama is pulling away in CO. I don't know if you are citing internal polls, but from the outside looking in, CO seems lost. It is trending Obama and even McCAin and the RNC is cutting their spending there, which is usually a sign that they think they can no longer compete.
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boilergrad01 Oct 30 2008, 02:27 PM Post #126
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Virginia National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
Colorado National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
Pennsylvania NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 47, McCain 43 Obama +4

look at the undecideds Virginia 8%
Colorado 8%
Penn 10%

Cnn has us up in Florida and NC now so hold on

I suggest everyone watches MSNBC on the 4th. Kieth Obamainia's head might explode.


Yes I am cherry picking and these cherries taste pretty fucking good.

And the market is up 160 points right now.

Fight to the finish motherfuckers

O a side note I have not worked in about 10 days you think I still have a job
Nothing beats an Astronaut
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Mr Gray Oct 30 2008, 02:34 PM Post #127
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boilergrad01
Oct 30 2008, 02:27 PM
O a side note I have not worked in about 10 days you think I still have a job
no, probably not.....perhaps you should consider voting for Obama :o
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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eelbor Oct 30 2008, 02:34 PM Post #128
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Aren't you self employed? You may be broke, but I don't think you have been fired.
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"Liberal, shmiberal. That should be a new word. Shmiberal: one who is assumed liberal, just because he's a professional whiner in the newspaper. If you'll read the subtext for many of those old strips, you'll find the heart of an old-fashioned Libertarian. And I'd be a Libertarian, if they weren't all a bunch of tax-dodging professional whiners." - Berkeley Breathed


Meat is Murder. Sweet, delicious murder.
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hoosierinhogville Oct 30 2008, 02:36 PM Post #129
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eelbor
Oct 30 2008, 02:34 PM
Aren't you self employed? You may be broke, but I don't think you have been fired.
You never know about those Mavericks. He may have fired himself.
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eelbor Oct 30 2008, 02:41 PM Post #130
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hoosierinhogville
Oct 30 2008, 02:36 PM
eelbor
Oct 30 2008, 02:34 PM
Aren't you self employed? You may be broke, but I don't think you have been fired.
You never know about those Mavericks. He may have fired himself.
:rofl:
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"Liberal, shmiberal. That should be a new word. Shmiberal: one who is assumed liberal, just because he's a professional whiner in the newspaper. If you'll read the subtext for many of those old strips, you'll find the heart of an old-fashioned Libertarian. And I'd be a Libertarian, if they weren't all a bunch of tax-dodging professional whiners." - Berkeley Breathed


Meat is Murder. Sweet, delicious murder.
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boilergrad01 Oct 30 2008, 02:42 PM Post #131
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I am a independent sales Rep. I have my own territory. It is like a franchise with large corporate support. The chairmen of the board understands I met him at an McCain event. He is a Vet also so he understands. I am not saying he is happy but understands I need a big November.
Nothing beats an Astronaut
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dreachon Oct 30 2008, 03:29 PM Post #132
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Rassy back up to +5 today and Gallup average is at +6. IndyStar poll today says Obama +1.
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boilergrad01 Oct 30 2008, 03:39 PM Post #133
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dreachon
Oct 30 2008, 03:29 PM
Rassy back up to +5 today and Gallup average is at +6. IndyStar poll today says Obama +1.
Dreach,

What is the undecided factor???? I will use the Kieth Obamania scale undecided plus the margin of error for the Kieth factor.
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dreachon Oct 30 2008, 03:59 PM Post #134
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I dunno, let's say Obama is up 5% and there are 9% undecided. McCain would need to win 2/3 of the undecided vote. I don't see that happening. Especially because I think Undecideds are more likely to vote 3rd party.
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brumdog44 Oct 30 2008, 04:00 PM Post #135
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boilergrad01
Oct 30 2008, 03:39 PM
dreachon
Oct 30 2008, 03:29 PM
Rassy back up to +5 today and Gallup average is at +6. IndyStar poll today says Obama +1.
Dreach,

What is the undecided factor???? I will use the Kieth Obamania scale undecided plus the margin of error for the Kieth factor.
Since you'll be the last one left who still thinks McCain will win, you can turn the lights out after everyone else leaves.

The Bradley effect...no,no, the undecided effect...no,no the Oblerman effect.

You keep forgeting the reality effect. Don't tremble too hard when it crashes down on you.
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