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The Election Game
Tweet Topic Started: Oct 28 2008, 09:06 PM (505 Views)
brumdog44 Oct 28 2008, 09:06 PM Post #1
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Okay, here goes.

The ballot is below. Feel free to paste it into your reply and fill in either Obama or McCain's name.

Only 'swing states' are going to be used. This states are defined thusly:

1. A state that Rasmussen has listed leans republican, leans democrat, or toss up.
2. A state that voted one way in the last election and is listed as likely for the other party on Rasmussen for this election (Iowa and New Mexico are listed as likely democrat; last election that went to Bush.
3. Pennsylvania has been put in as well although it fits neither category.

States that are not swing states and their delegates are the following:

McCain: Alaska (3), Alabama (9), Arizona (10), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Utah (5), Wyoming (3), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Texas (34), West Virginia (5). TOTAL DELEGATES: 163

Obama: California (55), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maryland (12), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Connecticut (7), Maine (4), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10). TOTAL DELEGATES: 227

'Swing states:

Colorado (9): predicted winner:
Florida (27): predicted winner:
Indiana (11): predicted winner:
Iowa (7): predicted winner:
Missouri (11): predicted winner:
Nevada (5): predicted winner:
New Hampshire (4): predicted winner:
New Mexico (5): predicted winner:
North Carolina (15): predicted winner:
Ohio (20): predicted winner:
Pennsylvania (21): predicted winner:
Virginia (13): predicted winner:

TOTAL DELEGATE COUNT:
McCain
Obama

PREDICTED POPULAR VOTE, TO NEAREST % (as listed at 5 pm, Nov 5th):

McCain
Obama

WILDCARD STATE: in this category you will list a state that you feel a candidate could possibly take from their opponents column of non-swing states; if none are taken, the winning wildcard state will be the one in which percentage wise the candidate came closest to taking.

McCain:
Obama:

NOTE: It is possible that Maine or Nebraska could split their delegates if one candidate wins a district but loses that state...it has never happened and despite the fact that Obama has pushed in one district in Nebraska and McCain has pushed in one district in Maine, most pundits do not see it as a real possibility that those states will split delegates. If you see otherwise, you can amend your totals to reflect that.
Edited by brumdog44, Oct 28 2008, 10:52 PM.
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dreachon Oct 28 2008, 10:31 PM Post #2
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Colorado (9): predicted winner: Obama
Florida (27): predicted winner: McCain
Indiana (11): predicted winner: McCain
Iowa (7): predicted winner: Obama
Missouri (11): predicted winner: McCain
Nevada (5): predicted winner: Obama
New Hampshire (4): predicted winner: Obama
New Mexico (5): predicted winner: Obama
North Carolina (15): predicted winner: McCain
Ohio (20): predicted winner: Obama
Pennsylvania (21): predicted winner: Obama
Virginia (13): predicted winner: McCain

TOTAL DELEGATE COUNT:
McCain = 240
Obama = 298

PREDICTED POPULAR VOTE, TO NEAREST % (as listed at 5 pm, Nov 5th):

McCain = 43%
Obama = 54% (i think other candidates will account for 3%)

WILDCARD STATE: in this category you will list a state that you feel a candidate could possibly take from their opponents column of non-swing states; if none are taken, the winning wildcard state will be the one in which percentage wise the candidate came closest to taking.

McCain: Minnesota
Obama: North Dakota
Edited by dreachon, Oct 29 2008, 11:00 AM.
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brumdog44 Oct 28 2008, 10:54 PM Post #3
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dreachon --

By my count, with your picks, the electoral count would be Obama 298, McCain 240.
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boilergrad01 Oct 28 2008, 11:01 PM Post #4
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'Swing states:

Colorado (9): predicted winner:McCain
Florida (27): predicted winner:McCain
Indiana (11): predicted winner:McCain
Iowa (7): predicted winner:McCain
Missouri (11): predicted winner:McCain
Nevada (5): predicted winner:McCain
New Hampshire (4): predicted winner:McCain
New Mexico (5): predicted winner:Obama
North Carolina (15): predicted winner:McCain
Ohio (20): predicted winner:McCain
Pennsylvania (21): predicted winner:McCain
Virginia (13): predicted winner:Obama

TOTAL DELEGATE COUNT:
McCain 293
Obama 245

PREDICTED POPULAR VOTE, TO NEAREST % (as listed at 5 pm, Nov 5th):

McCain 49%
Obama 48%

WILDCARD STATE: in this category you will list a state that you feel a candidate could possibly take from their opponents column of non-swing states; if none are taken, the winning wildcard state will be the one in which percentage wise the candidate came closest to taking.

McCain:Minny
Obama:Montana

Edited by boilergrad01, Nov 1 2008, 11:16 AM.
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boilergrad01 Oct 28 2008, 11:04 PM Post #5
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Note Brum I believe Minny goes to Obama in the end and Montana stays red so that is how I got my count. I do believe McCain wins Ohio, Florida and NC by less than 2.5% combined. Those will be very close races. I think Colorado will also be very close.
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BTown11 Oct 28 2008, 11:04 PM Post #6
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'Swing states:

Colorado (9): predicted winner: Obama
Florida (27): predicted winner: Obama
Indiana (11): predicted winner: McCain
Iowa (7): predicted winner: Obama
Missouri (11): predicted winner: McCain
Nevada (5): predicted winner: Obama
New Hampshire (4): predicted winner: Obama
New Mexico (5): predicted winner: McCain
North Carolina (15): predicted winner: McCain
Ohio (20): predicted winner: Obama
Pennsylvania (21): predicted winner: Obama
Virginia (13): predicted winner: Obama

TOTAL DELEGATE COUNT:
McCain: 205
Obama: 333

PREDICTED POPULAR VOTE, TO NEAREST % (as listed at 5 pm, Nov 5th):

McCain: 41%
Obama: 55%

WILDCARD STATE: in this category you will list a state that you feel a candidate could possibly take from their opponents column of non-swing states; if none are taken, the winning wildcard state will be the one in which percentage wise the candidate came closest to taking.

McCain: Maine
Obama: Georgia

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BTown11 Oct 28 2008, 11:05 PM Post #7
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ps.. that's not really how i think the race will turn out..

you just have to go out on a limb to win games sometimes.
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boilergrad01 Oct 28 2008, 11:06 PM Post #8
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Btown Maine do you think the Repubs hold the senate seat. You counting on a racist vote in Maine. Penn McCain has been working it hard maine one congressional district but not the state why Maine.
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BTown11 Oct 28 2008, 11:06 PM Post #9
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boilergrad01
Oct 28 2008, 11:01 PM
TOTAL DELEGATE COUNT:
McCain 286
Obama 252

you are one loyal mother fucker bg, gotta respect that.
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BTown11 Oct 28 2008, 11:07 PM Post #10
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boilergrad01
Oct 28 2008, 11:06 PM
Btown Maine do you think the Repubs hold the senate seat. You counting on a racist vote in Maine. Penn McCain has been working it hard maine one congressional district but not the state why Maine.
^^ see out on a limb prediction comment ^^
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boilergrad01 Oct 28 2008, 11:07 PM Post #11
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Internal polling says we are good. Now if the polling guy is like other people on the team I could be fucked.
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brumdog44 Oct 28 2008, 11:08 PM Post #12
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'Swing states:

Colorado (9): predicted winner: Obama
Florida (27): predicted winner: Obama
Indiana (11): predicted winner: McCain
Iowa (7): predicted winner: Obama
Missouri (11): predicted winner: McCain
Nevada (5): predicted winner: Obama
New Hampshire (4): predicted winner:Obama
New Mexico (5): predicted winner: Obama
North Carolina (15): predicted winner: McCain
Ohio (20): predicted winner: Obama
Pennsylvania (21): predicted winner: Obama
Virginia (13): predicted winner: Obama

TOTAL DELEGATE COUNT:
McCain 200
Obama 338

PREDICTED POPULAR VOTE, TO NEAREST % (as listed at 5 pm, Nov 5th):

McCain 46
Obama 51

WILDCARD STATE: in this category you will list a state that you feel a candidate could possibly take from their opponents column of non-swing states; if none are taken, the winning wildcard state will be the one in which percentage wise the candidate came closest to taking.

McCain: Maine (with an outside chance of winning one electoral vote there)
Obama: Georgia
Edited by brumdog44, Oct 30 2008, 04:04 PM.
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BTown11 Oct 28 2008, 11:09 PM Post #13
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brumdog44
Oct 28 2008, 11:08 PM
I will probably be editting before the election...NC and Ohio I haven't decided about yet. Currently have McCain listed. Want to see what polls are saying about them.

'Swing states:

Colorado (9): predicted winner: Obama
Florida (27): predicted winner: Obama
Indiana (11): predicted winner: McCain
Iowa (7): predicted winner: Obama
Missouri (11): predicted winner: McCain
Nevada (5): predicted winner: Obama
New Hampshire (4): predicted winner:Obama
New Mexico (5): predicted winner: Obama
North Carolina (15): predicted winner: McCain
Ohio (20): predicted winner: McCain
Pennsylvania (21): predicted winner: Obama
Virginia (13): predicted winner: Obama

TOTAL DELEGATE COUNT:
McCain 220
Obama 318

PREDICTED POPULAR VOTE, TO NEAREST % (as listed at 5 pm, Nov 5th):

McCain 46
Obama 51

WILDCARD STATE: in this category you will list a state that you feel a candidate could possibly take from their opponents column of non-swing states; if none are taken, the winning wildcard state will be the one in which percentage wise the candidate came closest to taking.

McCain: Maine (with an outside chance of winning one electoral vote there)
Obama: Georgia
CNN says Obama is pulling away in Ohio, but Ohio is a state you really have to be concerned about the Bradley Effect in.
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brumdog44 Oct 28 2008, 11:14 PM Post #14
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BTown8
Oct 28 2008, 11:09 PM
brumdog44
Oct 28 2008, 11:08 PM
I will probably be editting before the election...NC and Ohio I haven't decided about yet. Currently have McCain listed. Want to see what polls are saying about them.

'Swing states:

Colorado (9): predicted winner: Obama
Florida (27): predicted winner: Obama
Indiana (11): predicted winner: McCain
Iowa (7): predicted winner: Obama
Missouri (11): predicted winner: McCain
Nevada (5): predicted winner: Obama
New Hampshire (4): predicted winner:Obama
New Mexico (5): predicted winner: Obama
North Carolina (15): predicted winner: McCain
Ohio (20): predicted winner: McCain
Pennsylvania (21): predicted winner: Obama
Virginia (13): predicted winner: Obama

TOTAL DELEGATE COUNT:
McCain 220
Obama 318

PREDICTED POPULAR VOTE, TO NEAREST % (as listed at 5 pm, Nov 5th):

McCain 46
Obama 51

WILDCARD STATE: in this category you will list a state that you feel a candidate could possibly take from their opponents column of non-swing states; if none are taken, the winning wildcard state will be the one in which percentage wise the candidate came closest to taking.

McCain: Maine (with an outside chance of winning one electoral vote there)
Obama: Georgia
CNN says Obama is pulling away in Ohio, but Ohio is a state you really have to be concerned about the Bradley Effect in.
Which is why I'll probably wait until the last minute before I finalize my pick for Ohio...Rassy has Obama up 4 and I want to see if that lead is maintained in the polls before the election.
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boilergrad01 Oct 28 2008, 11:27 PM Post #15
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BTown8
Oct 28 2008, 11:09 PM
brumdog44
Oct 28 2008, 11:08 PM
I will probably be editting before the election...NC and Ohio I haven't decided about yet. Currently have McCain listed. Want to see what polls are saying about them.

'Swing states:

Colorado (9): predicted winner: Obama
Florida (27): predicted winner: Obama
Indiana (11): predicted winner: McCain
Iowa (7): predicted winner: Obama
Missouri (11): predicted winner: McCain
Nevada (5): predicted winner: Obama
New Hampshire (4): predicted winner:Obama
New Mexico (5): predicted winner: Obama
North Carolina (15): predicted winner: McCain
Ohio (20): predicted winner: McCain
Pennsylvania (21): predicted winner: Obama
Virginia (13): predicted winner: Obama

TOTAL DELEGATE COUNT:
McCain 220
Obama 318

PREDICTED POPULAR VOTE, TO NEAREST % (as listed at 5 pm, Nov 5th):

McCain 46
Obama 51

WILDCARD STATE: in this category you will list a state that you feel a candidate could possibly take from their opponents column of non-swing states; if none are taken, the winning wildcard state will be the one in which percentage wise the candidate came closest to taking.

McCain: Maine (with an outside chance of winning one electoral vote there)
Obama: Georgia
CNN says Obama is pulling away in Ohio, but Ohio is a state you really have to be concerned about the Bradley Effect in.
btown,

I want McCain to win so bad it is affecting everything in my life. I have lost two GF's because they think I am off the reservation doing all the volunteer work. One can only take why do you do this for no pay. Did they pay for your gas shit for so long before you let them have it. Then they go away. It was for the best because they never understood me they just liked bragging about me being a veteran. They believed I am a badass. I do not even consider myself a tough guy. I just did what was asked of me.

That said I would be very hurt if McCain won on race. One of my favorite Soldiers in Iraq was Black. Him and I are very close. I would hate to think one day someone judged him on his skin color. I made a bad decision one day and he was there to save my ass. 16 months you will make a bad call. He put his life on the line to bail my ass out. Like I said before our head medic was black him and I are like brothers. I do not see Obama as a black canidate I see him as bad for America.
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