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| The Election Game | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Oct 28 2008, 09:06 PM (507 Views) | |
| BTown11 | Oct 28 2008, 11:39 PM Post #16 |
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Mer
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I know you to be a fair, honest, decent, and loyal man bg, but it's undeniable that the Bradley Effect will effect this race in some manner. I was noting especially in a state like Ohio (where some areas are extremely conservative) that that effect is something we have to worry about. There are just some people who don't want to see a black person as president (I'd know, I have several family members who feel that way outwardly). It's truly sad, but I don't feel as though that reflects on John McCain in any manner. |
| Death to Signatures. | |
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| chops1221 | Oct 28 2008, 11:49 PM Post #17 |
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Coach
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I never saw the Bradley effect as inherently racist. I thought it said that people didn't want to appear racist so they claimed to be supporting the black candidate when they actually preferred the white candidate. The reason for supporting the white candidate could be anything from policy to racism. |
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| boilergrad01 | Oct 28 2008, 11:54 PM Post #18 |
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Working on the last 5
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Btown, I see your point. i grew up on the southside and know how some ignorant people see the world. I guess the military gave myself a new perspective. My sister couldn't have children and was fortunate to adopt a bi-racial child. I hope he has every oppurtunity to suceed as anyone else. He is a awesome little kid. My best friends wife is from Venezuela. I love his kids like they are my own. He got his wife pregant on mid tour leave. I took all his patrols the last two weks in Bagdad because he was going to go home. That is something the media never reports about single Soldiers fighting to take anothers patrol the last couple weeks because they want their married buddies to make it home. I don't say that for praise or respect just to emphasize how much Soldiers care about each other. It is a bond most will never understand. that is why Veterans overwhelming support McCain because he understands us. Edited by boilergrad01, Oct 28 2008, 11:55 PM.
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| Nothing beats an Astronaut | |
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| BTown11 | Oct 28 2008, 11:59 PM Post #19 |
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Mer
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Yeah, that is definitely the definition of the Bradley Effect. I have many relatives and friends who will outwardly say they are not racists, but I know for a fact they will not vote for Obama (or any other minority candidate for that matter) strictly because of their race, even though if asked they would likely call themselves and Obama voter. |
| Death to Signatures. | |
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| brumdog44 | Oct 29 2008, 06:53 AM Post #20 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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You also have to remember that the Bradley effect comes from an election in 1982 and has been widely corrected by polling organizations. A study by Harvard showed that black candidates overpolled by 3.1 % before 1996 and since they have underpolled by .3 %. |
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| hoosierinhogville | Oct 29 2008, 08:42 AM Post #21 |
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Coach
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Brum how late can we turn in our picks? I would like to wait a few more days to look at the polls before i make a prediction. Oh, and if I end up having the same count as someone else i apologize. I am not looking at anyone else's picks before I make mine, so I might duplicate. |
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| dreachon | Oct 29 2008, 10:16 AM Post #22 |
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Creative Title Here
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Yer right on Obama at 298 for me, but is something else wrong with my math? When I add up McCain votes it comes to 240. There are 540 total votes. 540-298 = 242. What's with the 2 vote discrepency? |
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| boilergrad01 | Oct 29 2008, 10:42 AM Post #23 |
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Working on the last 5
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538 total EC votes |
| Nothing beats an Astronaut | |
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| dreachon | Oct 29 2008, 10:59 AM Post #24 |
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Creative Title Here
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Got it, thanks BG |
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| eelbor | Oct 29 2008, 11:27 AM Post #25 |
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Zen Master
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McCain: Alaska (3), Alabama (9), Arizona (10), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Utah (5), Wyoming (3), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Texas (34), West Virginia (5). TOTAL DELEGATES: 163 Obama: California (55), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maryland (12), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Connecticut (7), Maine (4), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10). TOTAL DELEGATES: 227 'Swing states: Colorado (9): predicted winner: Obama Florida (27): predicted winner: Obama Indiana (11): predicted winner: McCain Iowa (7): predicted winner: Obama Missouri (11): predicted winner: McCain Nevada (5): predicted winner: McCain New Hampshire (4): predicted winner: Obama New Mexico (5): predicted winner: Obama North Carolina (15): predicted winner: McCain Ohio (20): predicted winner: Obama Pennsylvania (21): predicted winner: Obama Virginia (13): predicted winner: Obama TOTAL DELEGATE COUNT: McCain 205 Obama 333 PREDICTED POPULAR VOTE, TO NEAREST % (as listed at 5 pm, Nov 5th): McCain 48% Obama 50% WILDCARD STATE: in this category you will list a state that you feel a candidate could possibly take from their opponents column of non-swing states; if none are taken, the winning wildcard state will be the one in which percentage wise the candidate came closest to taking. McCain: Wisconsin Obama: Arizona As an Added Bonus, the Dems will take senate seats in Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, and Mississippi(Because of the Black vote for Musgrove) not quite bringing them to "filibuster-proof." Senate 59D - 41R |
![]() "Liberal, shmiberal. That should be a new word. Shmiberal: one who is assumed liberal, just because he's a professional whiner in the newspaper. If you'll read the subtext for many of those old strips, you'll find the heart of an old-fashioned Libertarian. And I'd be a Libertarian, if they weren't all a bunch of tax-dodging professional whiners." - Berkeley Breathed Meat is Murder. Sweet, delicious murder. | |
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| boilergrad01 | Oct 30 2008, 02:02 AM Post #26 |
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Working on the last 5
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Eelbor the You are discounting the two Independents in the Senate Joe L and bernie the Socialist whom is less liberal than Obama BTW BTW I hope Gordon Smith from ORE gets his ass kicked that sell out running for cover no spine worthless asslicking girl walking weak incompentent worthless kick in the balls good for nothing non leading tofu eating yellow bellied convictionless limp wristed surrending coward is a real piece of shit in my book. Not that I have an opinion on him. Don't even get me going on Ted Stevens |
| Nothing beats an Astronaut | |
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| eelbor | Oct 30 2008, 08:30 AM Post #27 |
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Zen Master
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BG, someday you will have to lower your guard and less us know what you really think about Gordon Smith. Keeping things bottled up like this is unhealthy. ;) So is it Smith's Iraq stance that leads to your distaste for the man? I am just hoping Minn learned their lesson and don't actually send Al Franken to the Senate. The number 60, while magical on paper, is not nearly as big a thing as the media is making it. It is nearly impossible to count on all 60 of those votes for anything, particularly something as simple as ending debate. Any number the Dems add above 51 makes it easier for them to push legislation through, but... they will never vote as a pure block. |
![]() "Liberal, shmiberal. That should be a new word. Shmiberal: one who is assumed liberal, just because he's a professional whiner in the newspaper. If you'll read the subtext for many of those old strips, you'll find the heart of an old-fashioned Libertarian. And I'd be a Libertarian, if they weren't all a bunch of tax-dodging professional whiners." - Berkeley Breathed Meat is Murder. Sweet, delicious murder. | |
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| boilergrad01 | Oct 30 2008, 08:01 PM Post #28 |
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Working on the last 5
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Gordon Smith will do anything to get re-elected. he craves power and approval he has never taken a stand on conviction. He was against the surge but endorsed McCain WTF. He then realized Ore is a liberal herion using haven that happens to be a state of great beauty. So he in defense of his power opps i meant seat starting linking himself to Obama. he is a man of no convictions just a nut job. Bernie Sanders is a socialist he admits it and takes stands on what he believes. I strongly disagree with Sanders but he is loyal to his beliefs and on that i can respect him. |
| Nothing beats an Astronaut | |
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| dreachon | Oct 30 2008, 08:26 PM Post #29 |
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Creative Title Here
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I just had tofu last night :'( |
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| boilergrad01 | Oct 30 2008, 08:29 PM Post #30 |
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Working on the last 5
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Dreach, Tofu is fine when eaten by a man of convictions. We might disagree on many issues but i believe you have been convicted I meant have convictions. |
| Nothing beats an Astronaut | |
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