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DC Blindly defends Purdue Coaches; more accurate title
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Topic Started: Sep 28 2009, 10:39 AM (1,334 Views)
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Maker13
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Sep 29 2009, 09:16 PM
Post #106
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Coach
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- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 08:10 PM
- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 01:53 PM
I think 2 things need to be added here
1) I think the chance of scoring a TD in that situation is surprisingly less than what some might think.
2) Offenses make more penalties in hurry up situations. Things like false starts and illegal formations are most common when an offense is running around trying to get set and call a play.
I wouldn't be upset if Hope's original plan was to save time. Then he could have saved a lot more. But once he decided not to save time, I don't think you can second guess yourself by calling the one timeout just to save ~30 seconds. Stick with yer guns, trust in your defense and ride it out. A TO in that situation only favors the offense. The defense has to feel awfully bad about themselves knowing that Hope thought a ND score was virtually guarenteed. How can they be confident in themselves when even their coach doesn't believe in them?
Trust our defense? The defense that just allowed them to go down the field on us? If anything, our defense was the one that needed to re-group. Banking on the other team to make mistakes to bail you out is not a good train of thought. You don't just let chaos reign. The defense let them march down the field because they playing 15 yards off, trying to prevent the long play. I highly doubt that was going to be the case on the goalline. Though I suppose you could try to make a point that they were really gonna keep the Irish out of back of the endzone if you want to continue with a worthless stance.
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BoilerBasketball2008
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Sep 29 2009, 09:17 PM
Post #107
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- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 08:10 PM
- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 01:53 PM
I think 2 things need to be added here
1) I think the chance of scoring a TD in that situation is surprisingly less than what some might think.
2) Offenses make more penalties in hurry up situations. Things like false starts and illegal formations are most common when an offense is running around trying to get set and call a play.
I wouldn't be upset if Hope's original plan was to save time. Then he could have saved a lot more. But once he decided not to save time, I don't think you can second guess yourself by calling the one timeout just to save ~30 seconds. Stick with yer guns, trust in your defense and ride it out. A TO in that situation only favors the offense. The defense has to feel awfully bad about themselves knowing that Hope thought a ND score was virtually guarenteed. How can they be confident in themselves when even their coach doesn't believe in them?
Trust our defense? The defense that just allowed them to go down the field on us? If anything, our defense was the one that needed to re-group. Banking on the other team to make mistakes to bail you out is not a good train of thought. You don't just let chaos reign. I'm much rather bank on their offense making a mistake in high pressure situation than our offense get 40+ yards in 30 secs with enough time to kick a long ass field goal with the Irish in prevent.
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Quote of the year:
"NC and SB wins let me sleep well at night" - Irishfan 
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irishfan711722
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Sep 29 2009, 09:26 PM
Post #108
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Assistant Coach
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homervisiion may be the least knowledgeable poster i have ever seen
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dçamden03
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Sep 29 2009, 09:56 PM
Post #109
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Opponents score a TD 81% of the time that they enter the red zone against our defense. I'm assuming that number goes up a bit when its inside the 5. Banking on us to stop them there is not the right call. Giving ourselves, albeit a slim one, a chance to score is better than not having a chance to score. I'd take our odds of getting FG attempt over stopping them on consecutive plays inside the 5.
I'm personally glad we have Danny Hope making those decisions instead of those on this board.
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“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."
"I’d take him to the ends of the earth — I’d want him playing for me.” - Bo Ryan on Robbie Hummel
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brumdog44
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Sep 29 2009, 10:02 PM
Post #110
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The guy picked last in gym class
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- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 09:56 PM
Opponents score a TD 81% of the time that they enter the red zone against our defense. I'm assuming that number goes up a bit when its inside the 5. Banking on us to stop them there is not the right call. Giving ourselves, albeit a slim one, a chance to score is better than not having a chance to score. I'd take our odds of getting FG attempt over stopping them on consecutive plays inside the 5.
I'm personally glad we have Danny Hope making those decisions instead of those on this board. And I'm personally glad to see that even Purdue fans are seeing through your bullshit now.
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dçamden03
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Sep 29 2009, 10:03 PM
Post #111
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Coach
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- brumdog44
- Sep 29 2009, 10:02 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 09:56 PM
Opponents score a TD 81% of the time that they enter the red zone against our defense. I'm assuming that number goes up a bit when its inside the 5. Banking on us to stop them there is not the right call. Giving ourselves, albeit a slim one, a chance to score is better than not having a chance to score. I'd take our odds of getting FG attempt over stopping them on consecutive plays inside the 5.
I'm personally glad we have Danny Hope making those decisions instead of those on this board.
And I'm personally glad to see that even Purdue fans are seeing through your bullshit now. My bullshit? Because I have a differing opinion? One that I've seen people who follow college football also agree with?
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“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."
"I’d take him to the ends of the earth — I’d want him playing for me.” - Bo Ryan on Robbie Hummel
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dreachon
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Sep 29 2009, 10:55 PM
Post #112
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Creative Title Here
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- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 09:56 PM
Opponents score a TD 81% of the time that they enter the red zone against our defense. I'm assuming that number goes up a bit when its inside the 5. Banking on us to stop them there is not the right call. Giving ourselves, albeit a slim one, a chance to score is better than not having a chance to score. I'd take our odds of getting FG attempt over stopping them on consecutive plays inside the 5.
I'm personally glad we have Danny Hope making those decisions instead of those on this board. It's early in the season and there's probably not enough of a sample size to back up that 81% as statistically significant.
But even if you take the 81% as true, Chris Summer has made just 40% of his field goal tries from 40+ yards. If you combine that with the chances of getting the ball into field goal range within 25-30 seconds, I think it's probably pretty close to a 20% chance of happening.
So if you've got an equal shot either way, then the only difference is Hope showing his defense that he has no confidence or trust in them. As fans, it's obvious that we don't have confidence in certain plays or groups. But as a coach, you've got to stand by your players. They can't feel very good about themselves right now.
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dçamden03
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Sep 29 2009, 11:01 PM
Post #113
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- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 10:55 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 09:56 PM
Opponents score a TD 81% of the time that they enter the red zone against our defense. I'm assuming that number goes up a bit when its inside the 5. Banking on us to stop them there is not the right call. Giving ourselves, albeit a slim one, a chance to score is better than not having a chance to score. I'd take our odds of getting FG attempt over stopping them on consecutive plays inside the 5.
I'm personally glad we have Danny Hope making those decisions instead of those on this board.
It's early in the season and there's probably not enough of a sample size to back up that 81% as statistically significant. But even if you take the 81% as true, Chris Summer has made just 40% of his field goal tries from 40+ yards. If you combine that with the chances of getting the ball into field goal range within 25-30 seconds, I think it's probably pretty close to a 20% chance of happening. So if you've got an equal shot either way, then the only difference is Hope showing his defense that he has no confidence or trust in them. As fans, it's obvious that we don't have confidence in certain plays or groups. But as a coach, you've got to stand by your players. They can't feel very good about themselves right now. Chris Summers isn't our kicker.
81% for a third of the games, I'd say thats a pretty good sample size. And one would think that inside the 5, that 81% would probably go up to closer to 90%.
You don't just ignore the facts because you need to show your defense confidence. I'd hope they don't feel good about themselves, they gave up a game winning TD in the last minute of a huge game. Just like I'd hope that Joey Elliot didn't feel good about himself after he handed the Oregon game away. And Aaron Valentin when he handed Northern Illinois the ball twice.
I don't think calling a TO is telling your defense much, they know the situation. If anything, its showing your team that you are going to do as much as you can to give yourselves a chance to win the game, not hoping the other team messes up.
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“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."
"I’d take him to the ends of the earth — I’d want him playing for me.” - Bo Ryan on Robbie Hummel
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dreachon
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Sep 29 2009, 11:15 PM
Post #114
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Creative Title Here
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- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 11:01 PM
- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 10:55 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 09:56 PM
Opponents score a TD 81% of the time that they enter the red zone against our defense. I'm assuming that number goes up a bit when its inside the 5. Banking on us to stop them there is not the right call. Giving ourselves, albeit a slim one, a chance to score is better than not having a chance to score. I'd take our odds of getting FG attempt over stopping them on consecutive plays inside the 5.
I'm personally glad we have Danny Hope making those decisions instead of those on this board.
It's early in the season and there's probably not enough of a sample size to back up that 81% as statistically significant. But even if you take the 81% as true, Chris Summer has made just 40% of his field goal tries from 40+ yards. If you combine that with the chances of getting the ball into field goal range within 25-30 seconds, I think it's probably pretty close to a 20% chance of happening. So if you've got an equal shot either way, then the only difference is Hope showing his defense that he has no confidence or trust in them. As fans, it's obvious that we don't have confidence in certain plays or groups. But as a coach, you've got to stand by your players. They can't feel very good about themselves right now.
Chris Summers isn't our kicker. 81% for a third of the games, I'd say thats a pretty good sample size. And one would think that inside the 5, that 81% would probably go up to closer to 90%. You don't just ignore the facts because you need to show your defense confidence. I'd hope they don't feel good about themselves, they gave up a game winning TD in the last minute of a huge game. Just like I'd hope that Joey Elliot didn't feel good about himself after he handed the Oregon game away. And Aaron Valentin when he handed Northern Illinois the ball twice. I don't think calling a TO is telling your defense much, they know the situation. If anything, its showing your team that you are going to do as much as you can to give yourselves a chance to win the game, not hoping the other team messes up. My bad. I see it is Wiggs now. He is 42% from 40+ yards so it's still relatively the same. To be fair though, that's only a sample size of 7.
1/3 of the games doesn't say anything about sample size. How did you come up with the 81%? What were the statistics last year?
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BoilerBasketball2008
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Sep 29 2009, 11:21 PM
Post #115
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Coach
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- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 11:15 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 11:01 PM
- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 10:55 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 09:56 PM
Opponents score a TD 81% of the time that they enter the red zone against our defense. I'm assuming that number goes up a bit when its inside the 5. Banking on us to stop them there is not the right call. Giving ourselves, albeit a slim one, a chance to score is better than not having a chance to score. I'd take our odds of getting FG attempt over stopping them on consecutive plays inside the 5.
I'm personally glad we have Danny Hope making those decisions instead of those on this board.
It's early in the season and there's probably not enough of a sample size to back up that 81% as statistically significant. But even if you take the 81% as true, Chris Summer has made just 40% of his field goal tries from 40+ yards. If you combine that with the chances of getting the ball into field goal range within 25-30 seconds, I think it's probably pretty close to a 20% chance of happening. So if you've got an equal shot either way, then the only difference is Hope showing his defense that he has no confidence or trust in them. As fans, it's obvious that we don't have confidence in certain plays or groups. But as a coach, you've got to stand by your players. They can't feel very good about themselves right now.
Chris Summers isn't our kicker. 81% for a third of the games, I'd say thats a pretty good sample size. And one would think that inside the 5, that 81% would probably go up to closer to 90%. You don't just ignore the facts because you need to show your defense confidence. I'd hope they don't feel good about themselves, they gave up a game winning TD in the last minute of a huge game. Just like I'd hope that Joey Elliot didn't feel good about himself after he handed the Oregon game away. And Aaron Valentin when he handed Northern Illinois the ball twice. I don't think calling a TO is telling your defense much, they know the situation. If anything, its showing your team that you are going to do as much as you can to give yourselves a chance to win the game, not hoping the other team messes up.
My bad. I see it is Wiggs now. He is 42% from 40+ yards so it's still relatively the same. To be fair though, that's only a sample size of 7. 1/3 of the games doesn't say anything about sample size. How did you come up with the 81%? What were the statistics last year? haha, why continue arguing, when 3 games can be considered a "sample size" ?
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Quote of the year:
"NC and SB wins let me sleep well at night" - Irishfan 
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chops1221
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Sep 29 2009, 11:21 PM
Post #116
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Coach
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- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 11:15 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 11:01 PM
- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 10:55 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 09:56 PM
Opponents score a TD 81% of the time that they enter the red zone against our defense. I'm assuming that number goes up a bit when its inside the 5. Banking on us to stop them there is not the right call. Giving ourselves, albeit a slim one, a chance to score is better than not having a chance to score. I'd take our odds of getting FG attempt over stopping them on consecutive plays inside the 5.
I'm personally glad we have Danny Hope making those decisions instead of those on this board.
It's early in the season and there's probably not enough of a sample size to back up that 81% as statistically significant. But even if you take the 81% as true, Chris Summer has made just 40% of his field goal tries from 40+ yards. If you combine that with the chances of getting the ball into field goal range within 25-30 seconds, I think it's probably pretty close to a 20% chance of happening. So if you've got an equal shot either way, then the only difference is Hope showing his defense that he has no confidence or trust in them. As fans, it's obvious that we don't have confidence in certain plays or groups. But as a coach, you've got to stand by your players. They can't feel very good about themselves right now.
Chris Summers isn't our kicker. 81% for a third of the games, I'd say thats a pretty good sample size. And one would think that inside the 5, that 81% would probably go up to closer to 90%. You don't just ignore the facts because you need to show your defense confidence. I'd hope they don't feel good about themselves, they gave up a game winning TD in the last minute of a huge game. Just like I'd hope that Joey Elliot didn't feel good about himself after he handed the Oregon game away. And Aaron Valentin when he handed Northern Illinois the ball twice. I don't think calling a TO is telling your defense much, they know the situation. If anything, its showing your team that you are going to do as much as you can to give yourselves a chance to win the game, not hoping the other team messes up.
My bad. I see it is Wiggs now. He is 42% from 40+ yards so it's still relatively the same. To be fair though, that's only a sample size of 7. 1/3 of the games doesn't say anything about sample size. How did you come up with the 81%? What were the statistics last year? Wiggs has connected on a 59 yarder this season. He's tried a couple of 60+ yarders, which is why his percentage isn't great.
That being said, DC is still wrong.
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BoilerBasketball2008
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Sep 29 2009, 11:24 PM
Post #117
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- chops1221
- Sep 29 2009, 11:21 PM
- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 11:15 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 11:01 PM
- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 10:55 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 09:56 PM
Opponents score a TD 81% of the time that they enter the red zone against our defense. I'm assuming that number goes up a bit when its inside the 5. Banking on us to stop them there is not the right call. Giving ourselves, albeit a slim one, a chance to score is better than not having a chance to score. I'd take our odds of getting FG attempt over stopping them on consecutive plays inside the 5.
I'm personally glad we have Danny Hope making those decisions instead of those on this board.
It's early in the season and there's probably not enough of a sample size to back up that 81% as statistically significant. But even if you take the 81% as true, Chris Summer has made just 40% of his field goal tries from 40+ yards. If you combine that with the chances of getting the ball into field goal range within 25-30 seconds, I think it's probably pretty close to a 20% chance of happening. So if you've got an equal shot either way, then the only difference is Hope showing his defense that he has no confidence or trust in them. As fans, it's obvious that we don't have confidence in certain plays or groups. But as a coach, you've got to stand by your players. They can't feel very good about themselves right now.
Chris Summers isn't our kicker. 81% for a third of the games, I'd say thats a pretty good sample size. And one would think that inside the 5, that 81% would probably go up to closer to 90%. You don't just ignore the facts because you need to show your defense confidence. I'd hope they don't feel good about themselves, they gave up a game winning TD in the last minute of a huge game. Just like I'd hope that Joey Elliot didn't feel good about himself after he handed the Oregon game away. And Aaron Valentin when he handed Northern Illinois the ball twice. I don't think calling a TO is telling your defense much, they know the situation. If anything, its showing your team that you are going to do as much as you can to give yourselves a chance to win the game, not hoping the other team messes up.
My bad. I see it is Wiggs now. He is 42% from 40+ yards so it's still relatively the same. To be fair though, that's only a sample size of 7. 1/3 of the games doesn't say anything about sample size. How did you come up with the 81%? What were the statistics last year?
Wiggs has connected on a 59 yarder this season. He's tried a couple of 60+ yarders, which is why his percentage isn't great. That being said, DC is still wrong. Wiggs is indeed pretty good, than being said, cosign.
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Quote of the year:
"NC and SB wins let me sleep well at night" - Irishfan 
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dçamden03
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Sep 29 2009, 11:24 PM
Post #118
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Coach
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- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 11:15 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 11:01 PM
- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 10:55 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 09:56 PM
Opponents score a TD 81% of the time that they enter the red zone against our defense. I'm assuming that number goes up a bit when its inside the 5. Banking on us to stop them there is not the right call. Giving ourselves, albeit a slim one, a chance to score is better than not having a chance to score. I'd take our odds of getting FG attempt over stopping them on consecutive plays inside the 5.
I'm personally glad we have Danny Hope making those decisions instead of those on this board.
It's early in the season and there's probably not enough of a sample size to back up that 81% as statistically significant. But even if you take the 81% as true, Chris Summer has made just 40% of his field goal tries from 40+ yards. If you combine that with the chances of getting the ball into field goal range within 25-30 seconds, I think it's probably pretty close to a 20% chance of happening. So if you've got an equal shot either way, then the only difference is Hope showing his defense that he has no confidence or trust in them. As fans, it's obvious that we don't have confidence in certain plays or groups. But as a coach, you've got to stand by your players. They can't feel very good about themselves right now.
Chris Summers isn't our kicker. 81% for a third of the games, I'd say thats a pretty good sample size. And one would think that inside the 5, that 81% would probably go up to closer to 90%. You don't just ignore the facts because you need to show your defense confidence. I'd hope they don't feel good about themselves, they gave up a game winning TD in the last minute of a huge game. Just like I'd hope that Joey Elliot didn't feel good about himself after he handed the Oregon game away. And Aaron Valentin when he handed Northern Illinois the ball twice. I don't think calling a TO is telling your defense much, they know the situation. If anything, its showing your team that you are going to do as much as you can to give yourselves a chance to win the game, not hoping the other team messes up.
My bad. I see it is Wiggs now. He is 42% from 40+ yards so it's still relatively the same. To be fair though, that's only a sample size of 7. 1/3 of the games doesn't say anything about sample size. How did you come up with the 81%? What were the statistics last year? http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/stats/2009-2010/confldrs.html
Misread it initially, its 81% scoring, right at 70% for a TD. So I was wrong there. Stats are pretty much the same from last year.
I don't know the stats from inside the 5, but I'm guessing its significantly higher than 70%. The odds of stopping them were very, very low. At that point, you do all you can to at least give yourself a chance at the end of the game.
I understand people's opinion that there would be chaos and a forced play, but those are things that were out of Purdue's control. I don't think you can count of on things that you can't control at that juncture of the game. Plus, 38 seconds to get off two plays isn't exactly a situation in which ND would have to rush anything.
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“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."
"I’d take him to the ends of the earth — I’d want him playing for me.” - Bo Ryan on Robbie Hummel
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dçamden03
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Sep 29 2009, 11:26 PM
Post #119
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Coach
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- BoilerBasketball2008
- Sep 29 2009, 11:21 PM
- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 11:15 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 11:01 PM
- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 10:55 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 09:56 PM
Opponents score a TD 81% of the time that they enter the red zone against our defense. I'm assuming that number goes up a bit when its inside the 5. Banking on us to stop them there is not the right call. Giving ourselves, albeit a slim one, a chance to score is better than not having a chance to score. I'd take our odds of getting FG attempt over stopping them on consecutive plays inside the 5.
I'm personally glad we have Danny Hope making those decisions instead of those on this board.
It's early in the season and there's probably not enough of a sample size to back up that 81% as statistically significant. But even if you take the 81% as true, Chris Summer has made just 40% of his field goal tries from 40+ yards. If you combine that with the chances of getting the ball into field goal range within 25-30 seconds, I think it's probably pretty close to a 20% chance of happening. So if you've got an equal shot either way, then the only difference is Hope showing his defense that he has no confidence or trust in them. As fans, it's obvious that we don't have confidence in certain plays or groups. But as a coach, you've got to stand by your players. They can't feel very good about themselves right now.
Chris Summers isn't our kicker. 81% for a third of the games, I'd say thats a pretty good sample size. And one would think that inside the 5, that 81% would probably go up to closer to 90%. You don't just ignore the facts because you need to show your defense confidence. I'd hope they don't feel good about themselves, they gave up a game winning TD in the last minute of a huge game. Just like I'd hope that Joey Elliot didn't feel good about himself after he handed the Oregon game away. And Aaron Valentin when he handed Northern Illinois the ball twice. I don't think calling a TO is telling your defense much, they know the situation. If anything, its showing your team that you are going to do as much as you can to give yourselves a chance to win the game, not hoping the other team messes up.
My bad. I see it is Wiggs now. He is 42% from 40+ yards so it's still relatively the same. To be fair though, that's only a sample size of 7. 1/3 of the games doesn't say anything about sample size. How did you come up with the 81%? What were the statistics last year?
haha, why continue arguing, when 3 games can be considered a "sample size" ? 4 games actually. Its a third of the season. Not much is going to change. And the numbers were nearly identical to last season.
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“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."
"I’d take him to the ends of the earth — I’d want him playing for me.” - Bo Ryan on Robbie Hummel
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BoilerBasketball2008
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Sep 29 2009, 11:28 PM
Post #120
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Coach
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- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 11:26 PM
- BoilerBasketball2008
- Sep 29 2009, 11:21 PM
- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 11:15 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 11:01 PM
- dreachon
- Sep 29 2009, 10:55 PM
- dcamden03
- Sep 29 2009, 09:56 PM
Opponents score a TD 81% of the time that they enter the red zone against our defense. I'm assuming that number goes up a bit when its inside the 5. Banking on us to stop them there is not the right call. Giving ourselves, albeit a slim one, a chance to score is better than not having a chance to score. I'd take our odds of getting FG attempt over stopping them on consecutive plays inside the 5.
I'm personally glad we have Danny Hope making those decisions instead of those on this board.
It's early in the season and there's probably not enough of a sample size to back up that 81% as statistically significant. But even if you take the 81% as true, Chris Summer has made just 40% of his field goal tries from 40+ yards. If you combine that with the chances of getting the ball into field goal range within 25-30 seconds, I think it's probably pretty close to a 20% chance of happening. So if you've got an equal shot either way, then the only difference is Hope showing his defense that he has no confidence or trust in them. As fans, it's obvious that we don't have confidence in certain plays or groups. But as a coach, you've got to stand by your players. They can't feel very good about themselves right now.
Chris Summers isn't our kicker. 81% for a third of the games, I'd say thats a pretty good sample size. And one would think that inside the 5, that 81% would probably go up to closer to 90%. You don't just ignore the facts because you need to show your defense confidence. I'd hope they don't feel good about themselves, they gave up a game winning TD in the last minute of a huge game. Just like I'd hope that Joey Elliot didn't feel good about himself after he handed the Oregon game away. And Aaron Valentin when he handed Northern Illinois the ball twice. I don't think calling a TO is telling your defense much, they know the situation. If anything, its showing your team that you are going to do as much as you can to give yourselves a chance to win the game, not hoping the other team messes up.
My bad. I see it is Wiggs now. He is 42% from 40+ yards so it's still relatively the same. To be fair though, that's only a sample size of 7. 1/3 of the games doesn't say anything about sample size. How did you come up with the 81%? What were the statistics last year?
haha, why continue arguing, when 3 games can be considered a "sample size" ?
4 games actually. Its a third of the season. Not much is going to change. And the numbers were nearly identical to last season. "not much is going to change"
Do you not see that saying things like this makes u look naive?
How can you possibly know if the defense would improve or even get worse, after 4 outta 12 games.
I do enjoy your argument though "Everyone disagrees with me, but that's what coach did, so it must have been right"
As if Hope has proven anything at all yet.
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Quote of the year:
"NC and SB wins let me sleep well at night" - Irishfan 
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