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Best comment thread ever?
Tweet Topic Started: Nov 1 2011, 12:14 AM (3,010 Views)
brumdog44 Dec 14 2011, 07:25 PM Post #256
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obatskii
Dec 14 2011, 11:22 AM
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Dec 14 2011, 10:37 AM
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/gaming/sheridan.htm
The Pats are only a six point favorite @Denver. Easy money?
Yes...if you take the points.
:facepalm:

Give, give, give. Both teams have won their last five games in a row, but talking pointspread: New England's average win in that time has been by 15 points, Denver's has been by 4.

BTW, line has already moved up to 7, so betting has been heavy on NE.
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obatskii Dec 14 2011, 07:27 PM Post #257
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Dec 14 2011, 10:37 AM
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/gaming/sheridan.htm
The Pats are only a six point favorite @Denver. Easy money?
Yes...if you take the points.
:facepalm:

Give, give, give. Both teams have won their last five games in a row, but talking pointspread: New England's average win in that time has been by 15 points, Denver's has been by 4.

BTW, line has already moved up to 7, so betting has been heavy on NE.
Yeah, and the "sharks" in Vegas always bet against the public....I rest my case.
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obatskii Dec 14 2011, 07:29 PM Post #258
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Also, Cowherd was talking today how home dogs cover around 60% of the time. Also, every Friday they have a Vegas expert critique Cowherd's blazing 5 picks. Very rarely do the sharks lay that many points, ESPECIALLY if it's at home. Colin said he would take the points, and I would bet my portion of the farm that Vegas agrees with him.

Of course that doesn't mean it will happen, but the wise-guys in Vegas will see it that way.
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brumdog44 Dec 14 2011, 08:11 PM Post #259
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Dec 14 2011, 07:29 PM
Also, Cowherd was talking today how home dogs cover around 60% of the time. Also, every Friday they have a Vegas expert critique Cowherd's blazing 5 picks. Very rarely do the sharks lay that many points, ESPECIALLY if it's at home. Colin said he would take the points, and I would bet my portion of the farm that Vegas agrees with him.

Of course that doesn't mean it will happen, but the wise-guys in Vegas will see it that way.
Cowherd wouldn't know his ass from a hole in the ground. If home dogs covered 60% of the time, you'd have a guaranteed fool proof system of betting. That's a brain dead statement.

Here are numbers that I've seen so far:

In 2008, home dogs covered covered 40 out of 83 times (48%). In 2010, through the first week of November, home dogs were 25-19-2 (56%).

This year, home dogs are 33-37-3 against the spread. http://www.nflwinnerspool.com/apps/past/nfl-schedule-against-the-spread-ats-results.php?year=2011

That's a total record of 98-99-5 against the spread as a home dog.
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obatskii Dec 14 2011, 08:17 PM Post #260
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Also, Cowherd was talking today how home dogs cover around 60% of the time. Also, every Friday they have a Vegas expert critique Cowherd's blazing 5 picks. Very rarely do the sharks lay that many points, ESPECIALLY if it's at home. Colin said he would take the points, and I would bet my portion of the farm that Vegas agrees with him.

Of course that doesn't mean it will happen, but the wise-guys in Vegas will see it that way.
Cowherd wouldn't know his ass from a hole in the ground. If home dogs covered 60% of the time, you'd have a guaranteed fool proof system of betting. That's a brain dead statement.

Here are numbers that I've seen so far:

In 2008, home dogs covered covered 40 out of 83 times (48%). In 2010, through the first week of November, home dogs were 25-19-2 (56%).

This year, home dogs are 33-37-3 against the spread. http://www.nflwinnerspool.com/apps/past/nfl-schedule-against-the-spread-ats-results.php?year=2011

That's a total record of 98-99-5 against the spread as a home dog.
He's way over 50% on the year, so take that for what it's worth.

Regardless of what he knows or doesn't (and I would disagree with you), the sharks are definitely taking the 7 points. If you want to claim to know more than people that bet for a living, then that's your call. That is a lot of points to lay, especially for a team that has an awesome defense right now, is playing with a ton of confidence, and have had many, many close games recently.

It seems to me like your hatred for Tebow clouts your judgment when it comes to betting.
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brumdog44 Dec 14 2011, 08:28 PM Post #261
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You are getting the betting wrong, here, obat. If a line moves from 6 to 7 it is because more -- not less -- people are giving the 6 points. The line is raised to get MORE people to take the points, not less. Seriously, you are saying everyone is taking the points so they RAISE the line in an effort to get less to do so?

Whose judgement is clouDed here?
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obatskii Dec 14 2011, 08:35 PM Post #262
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Dec 14 2011, 08:28 PM
You are getting the betting wrong, here, obat. If a line moves from 6 to 7 it is because more -- not less -- people are giving the 6 points. The line is raised to get MORE people to take the points, not less. Seriously, you are saying everyone is taking the points so they RAISE the line in an effort to get less to do so?

Whose judgement is clouDed here?
The scrubs like me and you decide the line, not a handful of sharks.

If Uncle Bob and his friends are betting in mass quantities on the Pats across America, then they'll raise the line so more people bet on the Broncos. The sharks would have taken the Broncos +6, but now that the average Joe has moved the line to +7, it's even better for them.

So to answer your question, apparently not me.

And I meant clout, not cloud, professor. To hit with a heavy blow. Your judgment has been hit with a heavy blow because of your hatred. Anything else you want me to explain tonight?
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brumdog44 Dec 14 2011, 08:49 PM Post #263
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Dec 14 2011, 08:35 PM
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Dec 14 2011, 08:28 PM
You are getting the betting wrong, here, obat. If a line moves from 6 to 7 it is because more -- not less -- people are giving the 6 points. The line is raised to get MORE people to take the points, not less. Seriously, you are saying everyone is taking the points so they RAISE the line in an effort to get less to do so?

Whose judgement is clouDed here?
The scrubs like me and you decide the line, not a handful of sharks.

If Uncle Bob and his friends are betting in mass quantities on the Pats across America, then they'll raise the line so more people bet on the Broncos. The sharks would have taken the Broncos +6, but now that the average Joe has moved the line to +7, it's even better for them.

So to answer your question, apparently not me.

And I meant clout, not cloud, professor. To hit with a heavy blow. Your judgment has been hit with a heavy blow because of your hatred. Anything else you want me to explain tonight?
:facepalm:

There is NO saying 'clout your judgement'...it is 'cloud your judgement'. I think I am a better professor than you are a student. Google 'clout your judgement and tell me what shows up.

Secondly, if you think it is as simple the public 'setting the line', you need to read up. Vegas lines most definitely turn when a betting shark starts putting big money in....hell, often you'll see one throw in money to force the line up or down and then bet the other side when it changes....huge money is to be when they can get both bets won or give yourself the out on a push on one of them.

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obatskii Dec 14 2011, 09:00 PM Post #264
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Dec 14 2011, 08:49 PM
obatskii
Dec 14 2011, 08:35 PM
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Dec 14 2011, 08:28 PM
You are getting the betting wrong, here, obat. If a line moves from 6 to 7 it is because more -- not less -- people are giving the 6 points. The line is raised to get MORE people to take the points, not less. Seriously, you are saying everyone is taking the points so they RAISE the line in an effort to get less to do so?

Whose judgement is clouDed here?
The scrubs like me and you decide the line, not a handful of sharks.

If Uncle Bob and his friends are betting in mass quantities on the Pats across America, then they'll raise the line so more people bet on the Broncos. The sharks would have taken the Broncos +6, but now that the average Joe has moved the line to +7, it's even better for them.

So to answer your question, apparently not me.

And I meant clout, not cloud, professor. To hit with a heavy blow. Your judgment has been hit with a heavy blow because of your hatred. Anything else you want me to explain tonight?
:facepalm:

There is NO saying 'clout your judgement'...it is 'cloud your judgement'. I think I am a better professor than you are a student. Google 'clout your judgement and tell me what shows up.

Secondly, if you think it is as simple the public 'setting the line', you need to read up. Vegas lines most definitely turn when a betting shark starts putting big money in....hell, often you'll see one throw in money to force the line up or down and then bet the other side when it changes....huge money is to be when they can get both bets won or give yourself the out on a push on one of them.


http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_correct_spelling_of_Judgement_or_judgment

It still makes sense in the way I said it, so don't knock me for it. I could bury you with great regularity on your verbose, so easy on calling me out. I know how offended you can get. Let's just leave that particular part of the argument there...

Occasionally sharks will move the line, but the majority of the time it's because of the general public. I have no reason to believe this is any different. If you want to use a minority claim to make your point, then I'll just disagree with you. Also, sharks won't bet if they think the line will move more in their favor. I'm sure the sharks would look at that line, and think it will go up because everyone will bet the Pats...more reason for the sharks to wait out and not influence the line initially.

I'm looking forward to what Mr. Bell has to say on Friday.
Edited by obatskii, Dec 14 2011, 09:05 PM.
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brumdog44 Dec 14 2011, 09:16 PM Post #265
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So you got called out on the 60% home underdog 'theory' and you think I'm using a 'minority claim'? Really?

I just told you Cowherd was full of crap and proved it. He's a rube who is full of crap.

http://beyondthebets.com/2011/10/18/espns-colin-cowherd-thinks-he-can-move-a-vegas-line-we-move-it-and-we-know-it/

He's a monkey throwing at dart boards just like almost every other bettor. In a season where he is doing well, he'll promote his numbers...when he isn't, he only talk about 'last week I went 4-1'. He started well this year, but he's been right on exactly 5 of his 15 'blazing five' the last three weeks.
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obatskii Dec 14 2011, 09:32 PM Post #266
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Dec 14 2011, 09:16 PM
So you got called out on the 60% home underdog 'theory' and you think I'm using a 'minority claim'? Really?

I just told you Cowherd was full of crap and proved it. He's a rube who is full of crap.

http://beyondthebets.com/2011/10/18/espns-colin-cowherd-thinks-he-can-move-a-vegas-line-we-move-it-and-we-know-it/

He's a monkey throwing at dart boards just like almost every other bettor. In a season where he is doing well, he'll promote his numbers...when he isn't, he only talk about 'last week I went 4-1'. He started well this year, but he's been right on exactly 5 of his 15 'blazing five' the last three weeks.
That's just what he said today. I assume he doesn't just throw random, incorrect stats out there. You proved the last 3 seasons that wasn't the case, but he didn't relegate it to only 3 seasons. He was 0-5 last week, which obviously brought his numbers down. I doubt he's just some idiot; if that was true, I don't think ESPN would give him his own TV show. Minority claim was in reference to the sharks moving the line.

Regardless, this argument isn't about Cowherd. It was whether or not the sharks move the line, and who they'll bet on. We'll see Friday.





Edited by obatskii, Dec 14 2011, 09:33 PM.
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brumdog44 Dec 14 2011, 10:33 PM Post #267
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Michael Shackleford tracked the trend from 1983 through 2007, home underdogs won 52.48% of the time.

Throw in 2008 through 2011 numbers I showed you, and it'll drop to about a flat 52%. Against a -105 line, the profit is very slight if you bet every single home dog over the past 28 years-- about 2%. Against a -110 line, it's basically a push or even a slight loss.

Cowherd is 100% full of shit on this.

Secondly, you don't think ESPN hires idiots? Really?
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HoosierLars Dec 15 2011, 11:00 AM Post #268
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Dec 14 2011, 09:16 PM
He's a monkey throwing at dart boards just like almost every other bettor. In a season where he is doing well, he'll promote his numbers...when he isn't, he only talk about 'last week I went 4-1'. He started well this year, but he's been right on exactly 5 of his 15 'blazing five' the last three weeks.
Public service announcement:

At any given time, all stock brokerages and wagering companies have some employees with an excellent RECENT track record. I love the gambling sites who say "our analyst XYZ was 90% against the spread, and we're giving you his guaranteed pick for next week!"

"Guaranteed" means that if his pick is incorrect, you don't pay for the "insight". And at any given time, there will likely be someone who's 90% against the spread over some time period.
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dçamden03 Dec 15 2011, 11:58 AM Post #269
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Yeah, Brum just completely owned people in this thread.

Anybody who has a "system" or has sports betting "figured out" is completely full of shit.
“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."

"I’d take him to the ends of the earth — I’d want him playing for me.” - Bo Ryan on Robbie Hummel

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obatskii Dec 15 2011, 01:07 PM Post #270
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Dec 15 2011, 11:58 AM
Yeah, Brum just completely owned people in this thread.

Anybody who has a "system" or has sports betting "figured out" is completely full of shit.
Once again, this really had nothing to do with Cowherd.

Brum thinks the sharks moved the line up to 7 and he thinks the the majority of sharks are taking the Patriots. If anyone honestly feels that's true, you're crazy.
Edited by obatskii, Dec 15 2011, 01:13 PM.
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