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Best comment thread ever?
Tweet Topic Started: Nov 1 2011, 12:14 AM (3,009 Views)
dreachon Dec 15 2011, 02:17 PM Post #271
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Let me see if I am following correctly. Here's how I understand Vegas to work.

The Patriots are the favorite. So the line of 5 means the Pats are favored to win by 5 points. If you think they will win by at least 5, then you bet on the Pats and give the 5. Vegas's goal is to get 50% of the people betting on each side of the line. So when a line moves from 5 to 7, it means more people were taking the Pats and giving the points. Moving the line to 7 ensures that people are less likely to take the Pats and therefore get close to that 50% number.

This is like when IU opened at 3.5 over Evansville. Wasn't the line just under 10 before the game? This is because everyone was taking IU and giving the points. So Brum is right, the majority of people are taking the Pats and moving the line up to 7 (and possibly beyond if people can taking them).
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obatskii Dec 15 2011, 02:22 PM Post #272
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dreachon
Dec 15 2011, 02:17 PM
Let me see if I am following correctly. Here's how I understand Vegas to work.

The Patriots are the favorite. So the line of 5 means the Pats are favored to win by 5 points. If you think they will win by at least 5, then you bet on the Pats and give the 5. Vegas's goal is to get 50% of the people betting on each side of the line. So when a line moves from 5 to 7, it means more people were taking the Pats and giving the points. Moving the line to 7 ensures that people are less likely to take the Pats and therefore get close to that 50% number.

This is like when IU opened at 3.5 over Evansville. Wasn't the line just under 10 before the game? This is because everyone was taking IU and giving the points. So Brum is right, the majority of people are taking the Pats and moving the line up to 7 (and possibly beyond if people can taking them).
If Vegas has a strong opinion opposite of the public, they don't always want the betting 50/50, but as a general rule of thumb, that is correct.

Also, like I said earlier, the general public is usually the one who sets the line, and I’m sure this case is no different. Interesting enough, RJ Bell on his twitter has said that the wise-guys haven’t stepped in yet. I wonder why that could be. Maybe because they knew the mass majority would bet the Patriots and if they waited it out and they could get another point or two? Yeah, I would say that’s probably correct.
I’m expecting the next response to be about how Cowherd is an idiot.
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dreachon Dec 15 2011, 02:27 PM Post #273
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Can't the sharks bet both sides of the line? It's a good bet to take the Patriots and give 5. If the line moves up to 7 or 9 or something you could take the Broncos and the points and win both bets.
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dreachon Dec 15 2011, 03:00 PM Post #274
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Without reading the article, this is the type of shit that makes people hate the Tebow media coverage.

http://espn.go.com/
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obatskii Dec 15 2011, 03:01 PM Post #275
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dreachon
Dec 15 2011, 02:27 PM
Can't the sharks bet both sides of the line? It's a good bet to take the Patriots and give 5. If the line moves up to 7 or 9 or something you could take the Broncos and the points and win both bets.


The only way to win is if the spread is different on the two bets. For example, you can "middle" if you take the plus side of a +7.5 bet and then the line later moves to +8.5. If you bet against the favorite on the +8.5 you can make a lot of money (91%) if the favorite wins by exactly 8 points and only lose 9% of your total bets in all other situations.

Also, if you know which way the line is going to move, it's pointless to do so; you can just wait until it's where you want. I think it was pretty obvious which way the line would initially move here.
Edited by obatskii, Dec 15 2011, 03:03 PM.
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obatskii Dec 15 2011, 03:03 PM Post #276
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Also from my understanding, it doesn't happen that often.
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brumdog44 Dec 15 2011, 05:14 PM Post #277
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obatskii
Dec 15 2011, 03:03 PM
Also from my understanding, it doesn't happen that often.
Your understanding of it starts and stop with believing that 60% of home dogs win.

BTW, YOU brought up Cowherd to back up your 'point' and now want to eliminate him from the discussion because you were owned....sorry, but bringing him up in the first place and believing a totally ridiculous random number he throws out speaks volumes. Saying the general public raised the line and that the sharks 'bet against it' is true....some of the time, just like it's false some of the time. Ya see, if that was always true and it was a sure way to make money, then any smart Joe Public would always bet the side where the line was going in the opposite direction. A raising point spread used as fool proof evidence that the line was too high is pretty funny.

Lines quite easily change when the sharks start betting one way to counterbalance this....for the simple reason that sharks sometimes are able to gather some inside information that isn't open to the public (i.e., injury information). NFL injury reports are very inaccurate and very in reliability from team to team...sometimes players are playing on Sunday that were listed as 'dead' on Friday.
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brumdog44 Dec 15 2011, 05:26 PM Post #278
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obatskii
Dec 15 2011, 03:03 PM
Also from my understanding, it doesn't happen that often.
Ever read 'The Odds'? Lines -- especially ones on games that are going to be less bet on -- turn while a huge shark throws a lot of money into it. The writer follows three people in Vegas -- a seasoned professional gambler, a rookie trying to make it (he's from Munster, Indiana), and someone working on linesetting. They gave one case where threw a lot of money on a small D1 college game, the line changed, he threw money at it again, the line changed again, and then he threw money the other way. He basically worked it into a situation where he had a decent amount of leeway to win two of the bets with a shot at winning all three.
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BTown11 Dec 15 2011, 07:17 PM Post #279
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http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/tim-tebow-becomes-first-christian-to-play-in-nfl-s,26886/
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dçamden03 Dec 16 2011, 12:58 PM Post #280
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Dec 15 2011, 01:07 PM
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Dec 15 2011, 11:58 AM
Yeah, Brum just completely owned people in this thread.

Anybody who has a "system" or has sports betting "figured out" is completely full of shit.
Once again, this really had nothing to do with Cowherd.

Brum thinks the sharks moved the line up to 7 and he thinks the the majority of sharks are taking the Patriots. If anyone honestly feels that's true, you're crazy.
Money moves the line. You or I betting $50 on the game doesn't affect anything. The guys betting $10k have more affect on the line.

The line went up to 7 to get more money on Denver's side. Vegas wants as close to a 50/50 split on money that it can get.
“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."

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obatskii Dec 16 2011, 01:06 PM Post #281
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dçamden03
Dec 16 2011, 12:58 PM
obatskii
Dec 15 2011, 01:07 PM
dçamden03
Dec 15 2011, 11:58 AM
Yeah, Brum just completely owned people in this thread.

Anybody who has a "system" or has sports betting "figured out" is completely full of shit.
Once again, this really had nothing to do with Cowherd.

Brum thinks the sharks moved the line up to 7 and he thinks the the majority of sharks are taking the Patriots. If anyone honestly feels that's true, you're crazy.
Money moves the line. You or I betting $50 on the game doesn't affect anything. The guys betting $10k have more affect on the line.

The line went up to 7 to get more money on Denver's side. Vegas wants as close to a 50/50 split on money that it can get.
It just depends on how many people bet $50.

Also, they don't always want it 50/50 but that's generally the case.

Also, Brum, today RJ Bell said that this is one of the rare games in which the public and sharks actually agree. He went on to say that this is the first time all year where the sharks didn't take the home team when they were a 6 point favorite or more.

My logic was still correct in terms of what was moving the line (usually, and honestly if everyone is betting on the Pats, I'm surprised the line didn't move more), and who the sharks would bet on. However, this game is a bit of an anomaly. As a result, you were right, and I was wrong.
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brumdog44 Dec 16 2011, 05:14 PM Post #282
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It takes a man to admit when he was incorrect. So with that, I'll drop it.
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obatskii Dec 16 2011, 05:27 PM Post #283
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Dec 16 2011, 05:14 PM
It takes a man to admit when he was incorrect. So with that, I'll drop it.
I guess I didn't take the Tebow vs. Brady comparison into it as much as I should have when simply analyzing the numbers.

Thanks for not rubbing it in. I'm also thinking you ARE a shark!
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brumdog44 Dec 16 2011, 11:19 PM Post #284
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obatskii
Dec 16 2011, 05:27 PM
brumdog44
Dec 16 2011, 05:14 PM
It takes a man to admit when he was incorrect. So with that, I'll drop it.
I guess I didn't take the Tebow vs. Brady comparison into it as much as I should have when simply analyzing the numbers.

Thanks for not rubbing it in. I'm also thinking you ARE a shark!
Definitely not a shark....honestly, betting on games is a losing proposition. The sharks in Vegas that thrive MUST have a bankroll to fall back on...Vegas destroys some pretty good bettors because even they can go on a big winning streak, Vegas always has money to absorb big losses...most bettors don't and most don't have the discpline to put back money they've won.

Anyway, I study betting, read up a lot on it because I find it very interesting and when I was younger worked on some power rating systems to see how well they would work out....but it's a losing proposition if you are trying to make money off of it. Even the winners end up half the time scrambling because of down cycles. I don't do it for a couple of reasons -- it's never a good idea to bet money you can't afford to lose, and when you have a family that's pretty much all your money....and I have a very addictive personality and know I shouldn't get involved in things that I could get hooked on.

Separate issue, but do you know what casino game has the best odds for the player? It's one in which the odds are actually 50/50 for the house and player.
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obatskii Dec 16 2011, 11:37 PM Post #285
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brumdog44
Dec 16 2011, 11:19 PM
obatskii
Dec 16 2011, 05:27 PM
brumdog44
Dec 16 2011, 05:14 PM
It takes a man to admit when he was incorrect. So with that, I'll drop it.
I guess I didn't take the Tebow vs. Brady comparison into it as much as I should have when simply analyzing the numbers.

Thanks for not rubbing it in. I'm also thinking you ARE a shark!
Definitely not a shark....honestly, betting on games is a losing proposition. The sharks in Vegas that thrive MUST have a bankroll to fall back on...Vegas destroys some pretty good bettors because even they can go on a big winning streak, Vegas always has money to absorb big losses...most bettors don't and most don't have the discpline to put back money they've won.

Anyway, I study betting, read up a lot on it because I find it very interesting and when I was younger worked on some power rating systems to see how well they would work out....but it's a losing proposition if you are trying to make money off of it. Even the winners end up half the time scrambling because of down cycles. I don't do it for a couple of reasons -- it's never a good idea to bet money you can't afford to lose, and when you have a family that's pretty much all your money....and I have a very addictive personality and know I shouldn't get involved in things that I could get hooked on.

Separate issue, but do you know what casino game has the best odds for the player? It's one in which the odds are actually 50/50 for the house and player.
I enjoy betting as well, and read up on it from time to time. I just thought that with the home-field advantage and getting so many points, the sharks would take the Broncos here, especially considering how often they lay points on a home favorite (hardly ever). Also, I believe Brady is 1-6 in his lifetime against the Broncos. That's what I heard earlier in the week, but maybe that's wrong too :D

I know sports betting isn't a winning proposition, and that's why I try not to do it very often. During the last 3 months, I've made a total of 7 bets for $50 a piece. I've won 5, pushed once, and lost once. However, I haven't made a bet in the last 3 weeks probably as I don't bet just to be betting like some. I only bet when I really like a line, but I try to stay grounded and not bet more just because I like a particular line (I realize Vegas knows what they're doing).

Evansville has a boat (no pun intended), and I go about once every 3 months or so before going to the bars. I always play blackjack and put down $100. I'm probably up just a tad overall, but nothing to write home about. I've heard before that craps gives the bettor the best odds, but honestly, I don't even know how to play that game.
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