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Republican candidates
Tweet Topic Started: Dec 17 2011, 12:52 PM (97 Views)
HoosierLars Dec 17 2011, 12:52 PM Post #1
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Here are my current favorites, and the % chance they will beat Obama in the general:

Huntsman 80%
Romney 70%
Santorum 55%
Guingerich 50%
Perry 47%
Paul 45%
Bachman 30% (sorry bg)
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hoosierinhogville Dec 17 2011, 01:45 PM Post #2
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WOW

So you think a guy that can't even earn enough support to be at the debates has an 80% to beat Obama in the general? Makes sense.

And most of the head to head polls I have seen Paul has done better against Obama than everyone but Romney. Though I have not seen a head to head poll recently.
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brumdog44 Dec 17 2011, 02:16 PM Post #3
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hoosierinhogville
Dec 17 2011, 01:45 PM
WOW

So you think a guy that can't even earn enough support to be at the debates has an 80% to beat Obama in the general? Makes sense.

And most of the head to head polls I have seen Paul has done better against Obama than everyone but Romney. Though I have not seen a head to head poll recently.
You know that among the republican candidates, I like Paul as well as any of them -- but in a national election, he would have a long road to hoe. He has a lot of die hard followers, but there are a lot of the republican establishment that would not get behind him as well as a lot of the republican faithful voters who would probably skip voting altogether.

Also have to throw in the fact that in a national election, the age card is going to thrown out....typically that isn't factored into primaries. Primaries are typically viewed as having the right to be the candidate for president, national elections are for the right to be the man who is going to be in charge for the next four years.

Anyway, I think Lars way oversells Hunstman and Santorum for different reasons. Hunstman would have crossover appeal if he would get nominated -- which obviously wouldn't ever happen. What you have to have, though, is the support of party establishment.....McCain really didn't have it the last time around, just like Kerry didn't before him. It's not enough to simply want the other guy out, you have to have the important people throwing their support to your guy. In a race without parties, Hunstman actually would stand a chance because of how moderate he is.

Santorum has zero crossover appeal...not sure why Lars puts him so high.

Romney and Gingrich -- in that order -- have the best shot of taking the national election as the republican candidate. Romney has some moderate appeal and the republican leadership views him -- correctly, I think -- as someone who will be a good soldier and say what they want him to say. His main problem, surprisingly, isn't with picking up independent or even democratic votes....it's keeping the episcopal vote within his party.

Gingrich has the support of a conservative voting base and his debating skills will win him some independent votes. His bigger issue, which he is trying to control -- is that he still has a lot of enemies among the Washington establishment. He didn't exactly go out on the best terms...he made his share of enemies, most importantly ones in his own party.

So the biggest problem isn't that they aren't running against a very defeatable opponent -- they most definitely ARE -- it's that both sides have problems within the republican base itself.

Edited by brumdog44, Dec 17 2011, 02:18 PM.
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boilergrad01 Dec 17 2011, 02:21 PM Post #4
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Brum,

Once again a very logical approach
Nothing beats an Astronaut
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HoosierLars Dec 17 2011, 03:24 PM Post #5
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Guingerich, like Paul, has some scary/zany positions. Newt wants congress to have more power over judges--clearly unconstitutional.

Huntsman is going to come on strong in the next month. Watch and learn...
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sirbrianwilson Dec 18 2011, 12:33 AM Post #6
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HoosierLars
Dec 17 2011, 03:24 PM
Guingerich, like Paul, has some scary/zany positions. Newt wants congress to have more power over judges--clearly unconstitutional.

Huntsman is going to come on strong in the next month. Watch and learn...
I'll wait for his win in the primary. Until then, it's just another jump of support...

br
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brumdog44 Dec 18 2011, 12:45 AM Post #7
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Dec 17 2011, 03:24 PM
Guingerich, like Paul, has some scary/zany positions. Newt wants congress to have more power over judges--clearly unconstitutional.

Huntsman is going to come on strong in the next month. Watch and learn...
So are you off the Gingrich bandwagon and onto the Huntsman one now? Well, there is plenty of room available.

At best, Huntsman hits very low double figures in New Hampshire and then silently slides back into obscurity.

What would you consider 'coming on strong'? His numbers improving above a state's average sales tax rate? I think it's a safe bet to say that his numbers won't drop.

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HoosierLars Dec 18 2011, 02:20 AM Post #8
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brumdog44
Dec 18 2011, 12:45 AM
HoosierLars
Dec 17 2011, 03:24 PM
Guingerich, like Paul, has some scary/zany positions. Newt wants congress to have more power over judges--clearly unconstitutional.

Huntsman is going to come on strong in the next month. Watch and learn...
So are you off the Gingrich bandwagon and onto the Huntsman one now? Well, there is plenty of room available.

At best, Huntsman hits very low double figures in New Hampshire and then silently slides back into obscurity.

What would you consider 'coming on strong'? His numbers improving above a state's average sales tax rate? I think it's a safe bet to say that his numbers won't drop.

I think Huntsman has a good chance to win the nomination. Bachman and Paul are spending their cash attacking Guingerich, and he's not going to hold up well. Once Huntsman gets some momentum, he will surge into the lead, and win the nomination. You heard it here first.
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sirbrianwilson Dec 18 2011, 02:47 AM Post #9
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all i gotta say....what a weak group of candidates....on both sides.

br
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hoosierinhogville Dec 18 2011, 03:42 AM Post #10
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Dec 18 2011, 02:20 AM
brumdog44
Dec 18 2011, 12:45 AM
HoosierLars
Dec 17 2011, 03:24 PM
Guingerich, like Paul, has some scary/zany positions. Newt wants congress to have more power over judges--clearly unconstitutional.

Huntsman is going to come on strong in the next month. Watch and learn...
So are you off the Gingrich bandwagon and onto the Huntsman one now? Well, there is plenty of room available.

At best, Huntsman hits very low double figures in New Hampshire and then silently slides back into obscurity.

What would you consider 'coming on strong'? His numbers improving above a state's average sales tax rate? I think it's a safe bet to say that his numbers won't drop.

I think Huntsman has a good chance to win the nomination. Bachman and Paul are spending their cash attacking Guingerich, and he's not going to hold up well. Once Huntsman gets some momentum, he will surge into the lead, and win the nomination. You heard it here first.
He is polling so poorly he isn't even making the cut to get into the debates, and all the sudden he will win the nomination?
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Mr Gray Dec 18 2011, 08:26 AM Post #11
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brumdog44
Dec 17 2011, 02:16 PM
hoosierinhogville
Dec 17 2011, 01:45 PM
WOW

So you think a guy that can't even earn enough support to be at the debates has an 80% to beat Obama in the general? Makes sense.

And most of the head to head polls I have seen Paul has done better against Obama than everyone but Romney. Though I have not seen a head to head poll recently.
You know that among the republican candidates, I like Paul as well as any of them -- but in a national election, he would have a long road to hoe. He has a lot of die hard followers, but there are a lot of the republican establishment that would not get behind him as well as a lot of the republican faithful voters who would probably skip voting altogether.
A lot of the hippies who voted for Obama 08 might vote for Paul though....and I'm sure you know why.
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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brumdog44 Dec 18 2011, 09:03 AM Post #12
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HoosierLars
Dec 18 2011, 02:20 AM
brumdog44
Dec 18 2011, 12:45 AM
HoosierLars
Dec 17 2011, 03:24 PM
Guingerich, like Paul, has some scary/zany positions. Newt wants congress to have more power over judges--clearly unconstitutional.

Huntsman is going to come on strong in the next month. Watch and learn...
So are you off the Gingrich bandwagon and onto the Huntsman one now? Well, there is plenty of room available.

At best, Huntsman hits very low double figures in New Hampshire and then silently slides back into obscurity.

What would you consider 'coming on strong'? His numbers improving above a state's average sales tax rate? I think it's a safe bet to say that his numbers won't drop.

I think Huntsman has a good chance to win the nomination. Bachman and Paul are spending their cash attacking Guingerich, and he's not going to hold up well. Once Huntsman gets some momentum, he will surge into the lead, and win the nomination. You heard it here first.
Two explanations;

1. You have decided to self parody yourself jumping on bandwagons (we can already fill a river with 'watch what happens' that didn't happens)

OR

2. cocaine is a hell of a drug.
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mongo Dec 18 2011, 11:13 AM Post #13
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I actually think Huntsman could do well if he got the bid, but that ain't happening. Looking like four more years to me...
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HoosierLars Dec 18 2011, 01:10 PM Post #14
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Brumdog obviously doesn't understand what the primary process is all about. It's a time to learn about the candidates, and decide which one will make the best President. When Guingerich's support erodes over the next few weeks, much of it will go to Huntsman, a new candidate with excellent positions and the ability to relate well to voters.
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brumdog44 Dec 18 2011, 08:55 PM Post #15
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Dec 18 2011, 01:10 PM
Brumdog obviously doesn't understand what the primary process is all about. It's a time to learn about the candidates, and decide which one will make the best President. When Guingerich's support erodes over the next few weeks, much of it will go to Huntsman, a new candidate with excellent positions and the ability to relate well to voters.
I understand that you are a primary whore....you've been in bed with so many candidates I'm hoping you haven't caught anything.
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