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First AWar stat calculations
Tweet Topic Started: Jan 2 2013, 12:47 AM (869 Views)
brumdog44 Jan 2 2013, 12:47 AM Post #1
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Going about it with a different route this year (partially because my spreadsheet with player wins above replacement with my formula got lost)....this year I'll be calculating big ten players 'adjusted points/game' and 'adjusted points/40 minutes'. Basically it gives one single calculated value...i.e., a player may score 10 points/game but then have that number adjusted to reflect shooting percentage, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, free throws.....some players rank out to be higher values than their points scored, some lower. The number is then adjusted for pace of play (players are adjusted so their points/game would be such if the team played at an average pace) and also for opponent played.

Right now, Trey would be far and away the Big Ten MVP:

Top Adj Points/game:

1. Burke, Mich 22.9
2. Zeller, Ind 17.5
3. Berggren, Wis 16.7
4. Oladipo, Ind 16.6
5. Thomas, OSU 15.6
6. Paul, Ill 15.3
7. Hearn, NW 14.7
8. Brust, Wis 14.6
9. Appling, Mich St 14.4
10.Williams, Minn 14
11.Hardaway, Mich 13.9
12.White, Iowa 13.8
13.Ubel, Nebraska 13.6
14.Robinson, Mich 13.5
15.Hulls, Ind 13.1
16.An.Hollins, Minn 12.9
Sobolewski, NW 12.9
18.Staukas, Mich 12.7
Scott, OSU 12.7
20.Newbill, Penn St 12.4
21.Mbawke, Minn 11.8
22.Craft, OSU 11.7
23.Au.Hollins, 11.5
24.Marble, Iowa 11.4
25.Nix, Mich St 11.3
Watford, Ind 11.3
27.Payne, Mich St 11.1
28.Smith, OSU 10.8
Swopshire, NW 10.8
30.Dawson, Mich St 10.7
31.Sheehey, Ind 10.6
32.Crawford, NW 10
33.Abrams, Ill 9.9
34.T.Johnson, Pur 9.8
Evans, Wis 9.8
36.Ferrell, Ind 9.7
Marshall, Penn St 9.7
Dekker, Wis 9.7
39.Coleman, Minn 9.5
40.Richardson, Ill 9.4
Betrand, Ill 9.4
42.Talley, Nebraska 9.2
43.Valentine, Mich St 9.1
44. Gallegos, Neb 9
Olah, NW 0
46.Hammons, Pur 8.8
47.Harris, Mich St 8.6
Gesell, Iowa 8.6
Brueswith 8.6
50.Morgan, Mich 8.5

Top Adj points/40 minutes (minimum 15 minutes/game)
1. Burke, Mich 27.6
2. Berggren, Wis 25.7
3. Zeller, Ind 25.6
4. Mbawke, Minn 25
5. Oladipo, Ind 24.9
6. Scott, Ohio St 24
7. Payne, Mich St 22.2
8. McGary, Mich 20.7
9. White, Iowa 20.6
10.Williams, Minn 19.6
Olah, NW 19.6
12.Thomas, Ohio St 19.3
13.Hulls, Ind 19.1
14.Brust, Wis 19
15.Paul, Ill 18.8
16.Sheehey, Ind 18.7
Hearn, NW 18.7
18.An.Hollins, Minn 18.6
19.Watford, Ind 17.9
20.Lawson, Pur 17.7
21.Robinson, Mich 17.4
Appling, Mich St 17.4
Ubel, Neb 17.4
24.Bertrand, Ill 17.3
25.Nix, Mich St 17.2
26.Staukas, Mich 17
27.Hardawy, Mich 16.7
28.Woodbury, Iowa 16.6
29.Au.Hollins, Minn 16.4
30.Valentine, Mich St 16.2
31.Dawson, Mich St 16.1
32.Hammons, Pur 15.9
Smith, Ohio St 15.9
34.Morgan, Mich 15.9
35.Craft, Ohio St 15.1

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panchen_lama Jan 2 2013, 01:17 AM Post #2
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always like the stats brum. cheers.

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sirbrianwilson Jan 2 2013, 01:25 AM Post #3
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Burke would be far and away B1G MVP in the world where PPG or PP40M was king...but I thought you were calculating AWAR?

br
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brumdog44 Jan 2 2013, 10:27 AM Post #4
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sirbrianwilson
Jan 2 2013, 01:25 AM
Burke would be far and away B1G MVP in the world where PPG or PP40M was king...but I thought you were calculating AWAR?

br
I would be if I had my formula from last year.....unfortunately, I don't.
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sirbrianwilson Jan 2 2013, 10:40 AM Post #5
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check your PM
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brumdog44 Jan 2 2013, 09:11 PM Post #6
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Finally was able to dig up my AWAR spread sheet from last year. Here is this year's AWAR so far (adjusted Wins Above Replacement). Next to this year's number is last year's AWAR in parantheses.

1. Zeller +6.4 (+6.1)
2. Oladipo +6.0 (+2.5)
3. Hulls +3.6 (+2.8)
4. Sheehey +3.0 (+.9)
5. Watford +2.6 (+1.7)
6. Ferrell +1.9
7. Abell +1.9 (+.2)
8. Etherington +.3 (-.1)
9. Perea 0
10. Hollowell -.3
11. Creek -.7
12. Elston -1.5 (+.3)
TEAM TOTAL +24.0 (+15.0)
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brumdog44 Jan 2 2013, 09:29 PM Post #7
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Purdue's numbers pre-Illinois game...not real pretty.

1. Hammons +1.8
2. Lawson +1.5 (+.1)
3. T.Johnson +1.2 (-.4)
4. Carroll +1.1 (-.1)
5. Davis +.7
6. R.Johnson +.1
7. Simpson +.1
8. Anthrop +.1 (+.3)
9. Marcius -.2 (-.1)
10.Hale -.5
11. Byrd -.6 (+1.2)
12. A.Johnson -.9 (-.4)
TEAM +4.3 (+11.1)
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dreachon Jan 2 2013, 10:55 PM Post #8
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Glad you found it. I like the awar method much better.
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sirbrianwilson Jan 2 2013, 11:09 PM Post #9
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Jesus christ...OLADIPO!

The man is on a mission this year.

br
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brumdog44 Jan 2 2013, 11:17 PM Post #10
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For reference, last year I had the Big Ten player of year being Draymond Green with an AWAR of +6.5. Even with an increased adjusted bump for SOS as Indiana plays their Big Ten schedule, I think it don't think that Cody will come as close to his non-conference numbers to keep up his current AWAR....the team is just too balanced.

In my AWAR calculations last year, Anthony Davis was POY with an AWAR of +7.7. I haven't figured it yet, but I believe that Trey Burke is currently ahead of that pace.

Just a note for Purdue fans -- I plugged in the Illinois number games (although I'll still have to adjust for SOS and pace of play) and Terone Johnson leap frogged into the team lead...he'll likely be above +2.0 now.
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brumdog44 Jan 2 2013, 11:27 PM Post #11
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Just figured it...Trey Burke is currently at a cool +10.0. There's no way he maintains that, but I think he unquestionably will top Anthony Davis's total of last year.
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Maker13 Jan 3 2013, 11:32 AM Post #12
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Oof. Those are some hideous numbers for the Boilers. It does help validate your formula though, the eye test agrees that there's been a lot of mediocre play.
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brumdog44 Jan 5 2013, 06:03 PM Post #13
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Switching my AWAR calculations so that it uses Kenpom's SOS instead of the RPI SOS....RPI strength of schedule is ridiculous. It actually has Indiana's SOS as 47th best while KenPom has us at a more likely 285th.

Edited by brumdog44, Jan 5 2013, 06:05 PM.
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dreachon Jan 5 2013, 06:31 PM Post #14
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Jan 5 2013, 06:03 PM
Switching my AWAR calculations so that it uses Kenpom's SOS instead of the RPI SOS....RPI strength of schedule is ridiculous. It actually has Indiana's SOS as 47th best while KenPom has us at a more likely 285th.

Is that maybe the predicted SOS for the whole season?
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sirbrianwilson Jan 5 2013, 08:46 PM Post #15
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dreachon
Jan 5 2013, 06:31 PM
brumdog44
Jan 5 2013, 06:03 PM
Switching my AWAR calculations so that it uses Kenpom's SOS instead of the RPI SOS....RPI strength of schedule is ridiculous. It actually has Indiana's SOS as 47th best while KenPom has us at a more likely 285th.

Is that maybe the predicted SOS for the whole season?
That wouldn't surprise me. I think we'll end up in the top 50 SoS given the B1G this year....and because college basketball is down.

br
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