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First AWar stat calculations
Tweet Topic Started: Jan 2 2013, 12:47 AM (873 Views)
brumdog44 Jan 5 2013, 10:08 PM Post #16
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dreachon
Jan 5 2013, 06:31 PM
brumdog44
Jan 5 2013, 06:03 PM
Switching my AWAR calculations so that it uses Kenpom's SOS instead of the RPI SOS....RPI strength of schedule is ridiculous. It actually has Indiana's SOS as 47th best while KenPom has us at a more likely 285th.

Is that maybe the predicted SOS for the whole season?
No, because after conference play there won't be much variance in the SOS among conference teams. According to RPI right now, Minnesota's SOS is 11th and Wisconsin's is 205th. It's impossible that would be a prediction for the end of the season because with basically 18 common games you wouldn't see that much difference. Last year no team in the Big Ten finished below 73 in SOS and 8 teams were lumped from 13th to 33rd.
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brumdog44 Jan 5 2013, 10:17 PM Post #17
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FWIW, RPI strength of schedule is based on your opponent's record and your opponent's opponent's record. I believe (though I can't confirm) that it is 2 parts the first and one part the second.

When you actually look at the component of what our opponent's records are...it's actually deceivingly good:
(against D1 only)
Bryant 8-4
North Dakota St 10-3
Sam Houston 5-5
Georgia 6-7
Georgetown 10-1
Ball St 5-6
North Carolina 9-3
Coppin St 2-12
Cen Conn St 4-8
Butler 10-2
Mount St. Mary's 5-7
Florida Atlantic 7-8
Jacksonville 5-8
Iowa 11-3
Overall 97-77, and when you take away the games they played against IU, there is a deceiving record of 96-64....a 60% percentage.
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sirbrianwilson Jan 5 2013, 10:20 PM Post #18
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That at least makes a little more sense, although, top 50 in OOC is absolutely absurd...
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brumdog44 Jan 5 2013, 10:34 PM Post #19
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Jan 5 2013, 10:20 PM
That at least makes a little more sense, although, top 50 in OOC is absolutely absurd...
Yeah. KenPom's SOS is much better, which is why I'm switching over to it.
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dedicatedIUfan Jan 5 2013, 10:36 PM Post #20
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I think your AWAR calculations make sense. You should try to publish them like KenPom or Sargarin. You definitely have a gift statistically. I would love to analyze your data and the formulas you use. Those numbers truly reflect what a player is doing effeciently and VO is definitely the most improved player in the country.
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sirbrianwilson Jan 5 2013, 10:37 PM Post #21
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You should try to sell your formula to kenpom and get a cut from his subscription money. ;)

br
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brumdog44 Jan 5 2013, 10:44 PM Post #22
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Thanks for the compliments. It's certainly a work in progress....but I was very surprised last year when the national player of the year came out to be the national player of the year in my calculations as well despite only averaging 14 points/game (Anthony Davis).

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obatskii Jan 5 2013, 11:59 PM Post #23
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Yeah, I haven't posted in here, but love the calculations, Brum. Very cool stuff.
Edited by obatskii, Jan 6 2013, 12:04 AM.
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dçamden03 Jan 6 2013, 12:57 AM Post #24
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Any calculation that proves that the RPI is basically worthless makes me happy.
“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."

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dreachon Jan 6 2013, 08:11 AM Post #25
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Jan 6 2013, 12:57 AM
Any calculation that proves that the RPI is basically worthless makes me happy.
As long as the committee continues to use it, it's not worthless.
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brumdog44 Jan 6 2013, 10:29 AM Post #26
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dreachon
Jan 6 2013, 08:11 AM
dçamden03
Jan 6 2013, 12:57 AM
Any calculation that proves that the RPI is basically worthless makes me happy.
As long as the committee continues to use it, it's not worthless.
They really have devalued it. It's more the media using it than the committee.
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brumdog44 Jan 8 2013, 11:54 PM Post #27
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Here are the Team AWAR's through Monday's games. Still some work to do with a team calculated AWAR (would like it to incorporate defensive shooting percentage), but here we go. The data does suggest that Illinois is a fluke, Minnesota is for real and Northwestern could have been decent....had Drew Crawford not been lost to injury:

1. Michigan +22.7
2. Indiana +19.0
3. Minnesota +18.3
4. Michigan State +12.1
5. Ohio State +10.6
6. Wisconsin +10.3
7. Iowa +8.0
8. Northwesetern +7.5
9. Illinois +7.1
10.Purdue +1.0
11.Penn State -3.2
12.Nebraska -3.6
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brumdog44 Jan 8 2013, 11:59 PM Post #28
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Also, FWIW, #1 Duke has an AWAR of +20.0.
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brumdog44 Jan 11 2013, 10:15 PM Post #29
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Current Big Ten AWAR calculations heading into the weekend games:
1. Burke, Mich +8.9
2. Zeller, Ind +5.6
3. Oladipo, Ind +4.9
4. Berggren, Wis +4.4
5. An.Hollins, Minn +4.2
6. Paul, Ill +4.0
7. Mbakwe, Minn +3.9
8. Thomas, OSU +3.8
9. Appling, MSU +3.6
10.Williams, Minn +3.5
11.Hardaway, Mich +3.3
12.Scott, OSU +3.3
13.White, Iowa +3.3
14.Hearn, NW +3.1
15.Hulls, Ind +3.1
16.Robinson, Mich +3.0
17.Payne, MSU +2.8
18.Au.Hollins, Minn +2.6
19.Sobolewski, NW +2.5
20.Dawson, MSU +2.4
21.Sheehey, Ind +2.2
22.Abrams, Ill +2.2
23.Brust, Wis +2.1
24.Craft, OSU +2.1
25.Watford, Ind +2.1
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sirbrianwilson Jan 11 2013, 10:17 PM Post #30
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brumdog44
Jan 11 2013, 10:15 PM
Current Big Ten AWAR calculations heading into the weekend games:
1. Burke, Mich +8.9
2. Zeller, Ind +5.6
3. Oladipo, Ind +4.9
4. Berggren, Wis +4.4
5. An.Hollins, Minn +4.2
6. Paul, Ill +4.0
7. Mbakwe, Minn +3.9
8. Thomas, OSU +3.8
9. Appling, MSU +3.6
10.Williams, Minn +3.5
11.Hardaway, Mich +3.3
12.Scott, OSU +3.3
13.White, Iowa +3.3
14.Hearn, NW +3.1
15.Hulls, Ind +3.1
16.Robinson, Mich +3.0
17.Payne, MSU +2.8
18.Au.Hollins, Minn +2.6
19.Sobolewski, NW +2.5
20.Dawson, MSU +2.4
21.Sheehey, Ind +2.2
22.Abrams, Ill +2.2
23.Brust, Wis +2.1
24.Craft, OSU +2.1
25.Watford, Ind +2.1
That makes me nervous for tomorrow.

br
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