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First AWar stat calculations
Tweet Topic Started: Jan 2 2013, 12:47 AM (872 Views)
dreachon Jan 13 2013, 09:39 AM Post #31
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Hey Brum, if you want a challenge, how about the AWAR calculations of guys before and after they are guarded by Oladipo? Or maybe thee AWAR of those players in the game against Oladipo.
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brumdog44 Jan 14 2013, 09:19 PM Post #32
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dreachon
Jan 13 2013, 09:39 AM
Hey Brum, if you want a challenge, how about the AWAR calculations of guys before and after they are guarded by Oladipo? Or maybe thee AWAR of those players in the game against Oladipo.
That would be pretty hard to do...would have to know who he was guarding and quite often he wouldn't on that player anyway because of zone or he or the player he normally guards being out of the lineup.

Updated AWAR through the weekend:

Indiana
1. Zeller +5.8
2. Oladipo +5.3
3. Hulls +3.2
4. Watford +2.2
5. Sheehey +1.9
6. Abell +1.3
7. Ferrell +1.0
8. Perea -.3
9. Hollowell -.7
10. Elston -1.7

Big Ten leaders
1. Burke, Mich +8.7
2. Zeller, Ind +5.8
3. Oladipo, Ind +5.3
4. Berggren, Wis +4.4
5. An.Hollins, Minn +4.2
6. Mbakwe, MInn +4.1
7. Thomas, OSU +3.8
8. Williams, Minn +3.6
9. Paul, Ill +3.4
10.White, Iowa +3.3
11.Hulls, Ind +3.2
12.Hearn, NW +3.2
13.Appling, MSU +3.2
14.Scott, OSU +3.2
15.Hardaway, Mich +3.1
16.Payne, MSU +3.0
17.Robinson, Mich +2.9
18.Au.Hollins, MInn +2.6
19.Sobolewski, NW +2.5
20.Dawson, MSU +2.3
21.Abrams, Ill +2.2
22.Watford, Ind +2.2
23.Brust, Wis +2.0
24.Craft, OSU +2.0
25.Coleman, Minn +2.0
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sirbrianwilson Jan 14 2013, 10:02 PM Post #33
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brumdog44
Jan 14 2013, 09:19 PM
dreachon
Jan 13 2013, 09:39 AM
Hey Brum, if you want a challenge, how about the AWAR calculations of guys before and after they are guarded by Oladipo? Or maybe thee AWAR of those players in the game against Oladipo.
That would be pretty hard to do...would have to know who he was guarding and quite often he wouldn't on that player anyway because of zone or he or the player he normally guards being out of the lineup.

Updated AWAR through the weekend:

Indiana
1. Zeller +5.8
2. Oladipo +5.3
3. Hulls +3.2
4. Watford +2.2
5. Sheehey +1.9
6. Abell +1.3
7. Ferrell +1.0
8. Perea -.3
9. Hollowell -.7
10. Elston -1.7

Big Ten leaders
1. Burke, Mich +8.7
2. Zeller, Ind +5.8
3. Oladipo, Ind +5.3
4. Berggren, Wis +4.4
5. An.Hollins, Minn +4.2
6. Mbakwe, MInn +4.1
7. Thomas, OSU +3.8
8. Williams, Minn +3.6
9. Paul, Ill +3.4
10.White, Iowa +3.3
11.Hulls, Ind +3.2
12.Hearn, NW +3.2
13.Appling, MSU +3.2
14.Scott, OSU +3.2
15.Hardaway, Mich +3.1
16.Payne, MSU +3.0
17.Robinson, Mich +2.9
18.Au.Hollins, MInn +2.6
19.Sobolewski, NW +2.5
20.Dawson, MSU +2.3
21.Abrams, Ill +2.2
22.Watford, Ind +2.2
23.Brust, Wis +2.0
24.Craft, OSU +2.0
25.Coleman, Minn +2.0
Damn, that makes the B1G look like there are only 8 teams...

br
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brumdog44 Jan 19 2013, 06:41 PM Post #34
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AWAR through Purdue's game against West Virginia . Purdue's are through today's game except for any adjustment for pace and SOS:

Indiana
1. Zeller +6.0
2. Oladipo +5.2
3. Hulls +2.9
4. Watford +1.9
5. Sheehey +1.6
6. Abell +1.1
7. Ferrell +.9
8. Perea -.2
9. Hollowell -.4
10. Elston -1.7

Purdue
1. Hammons +1.8
2. T.Johnson +1.4
3. Davis +.8
4. Carroll +.5
5. Lawson +.2
6. Byrd +.2
7. Simpson 0
8. Marcius -.1
9. R.Johnson -.7
10. A.Johnson -1.4

Big Ten team AWARs (again, no pace or SOS adjustment for Purdue or Penn St/Neb games):

1. Michigan +21.5
2. Minnesota +18.9
3. Indiana +18.3
4. Wisconsin +11.8
5. Michigan State +11.2
6. Ohio State +11.0
7. Iowa +8.5
8. Northwestern +6.4
9. Illinois +5.3
10.Purdue +1.4
11.Nebraska -4.0
12.Penn State -4.8
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panchen_lama Jan 20 2013, 12:21 AM Post #35
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seems about right from an analytical focus of observation.
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brumdog44 Jan 20 2013, 12:35 AM Post #36
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panchen_lama
Jan 20 2013, 12:21 AM
seems about right from an analytical focus of observation.
Thanks. I'm getting pretty satisfied with the formula. It's not able to get a total accurate reflection of a player's defense, but it does a decent job of identifying guys who are very good defenders via their steal and block totals.
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brumdog44 Jan 22 2013, 08:24 PM Post #37
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Top 50 AWAR players through Sunday (quite possibly there are some that might have crept into the bottom part of the top 50 that I didn't spot so they didn't get calculated):

1. Muscala, Bucknell +9.7
2. Burke, Mich +8.8
3. Wolters, So Dakota St +7.9
4. McDermott, Creighton +7.7
5. Olynyk, Gonzaga +7.2
6. Green, Va Tech +6.9
7. Cooley, ND +6.5
8. Plumlee, Duke +6.4
9. Bennett, UNLV +6.2
10.McCrea, Buffalo +6.1
11.Zeller, Indiana +6.1
12.Carter-Williams, Syracuse +6.1
13.Jackson, Baylor +5.7
14.Cooper, Ohio +5.6
15.Dellavedova, St.Mary'ss +5.4
16.Howell, NC State +5.3
17.Oladipo, Indiana +5.3
18.Williams, UCSB +5.3
19.Haws, BYU +5.3
20.Rubit, So Ala +5.3
21.Brown, NC State +5.2
22.Atkins, ND +5.2
23.Roguemore, Santa Clara +5.2
24.Nicholl's State +5.2
25.Benimon, Towson St +5.1
26.Clark, Belmont +5.1
27.Daniel, Murray St +4.8
28.Franklin, San Diego St +4.8
29.Canaan, Murray St +4.7
30.Cotton, Providence +4.7
31.Cook, Duke +4.7
32.Porter, Georgetown +4.6
33.Collins, So Florida +4.5
34.McLemore, Kansas +4.5
35.Hornug, Colorado St +4.5
36.Hicks, Northwestern St +4.5
37.Hawkins, UC Davis +4.5
38.Crabb, California +4.5
39.Noel, Kentucky +4.3
40.Mbawke, Minnesota +4.3
41.Williams, Massachusetts +4.3
42.Davis, Tulane +4.3
43.Thomas, Ohio St +4.2
44.An Hollins, Minnesota +4.2
45.Gibbs, Creighton +4.2
46.Hagans, Delaware +4.1
47.Silva, Louisville +4.1
48.Ryan, Evansville +4.1
49.Withey, Kansas +4.0
50.Brown, High Point +4.0
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brumdog44 Jan 23 2013, 11:17 PM Post #38
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Top 60 AWAR power rankings through games of Tuesday, Jan 22. Team record follows power ranking and Ken Pom ranking is in paranthesis.

1. Gonzaga +22.4 17-2 (13)
2. Michigan +22.0 17-1 (5)
3. Creighton +20.2 17-2 (14)
4. Pittsburgh +20.1 16-4 (9)
5. Minnesota +19.6 15-3 (7)
6. Indiana +19.4 16-2 (3)
7. Florida +18.7 14-2 (1)
8. Notre Dame +18.5 15-4 (51)
9. Duke +17.5 16-1 (2)
10.Kansas +16.7 17-1 (8)
11.NC State +16.2 15-4 (37)
12.Syracuse +15.8 18-1 (6)
13.St.Mary's +15.2 15-4 (40)
14.UCLA +15.0 15-4 (49)
15.Boise St +14.5 13-4 (56)
16.Arizona +14.2 16-1 (10)
17.VCU +14.1 16-3 (12)
18.Louisville +13.9 16-3 (4)
19.UNLV +13.5 15-4 (27)
20.Colorado St. +13.5 15-3 (22)
21.Baylor +13.3 13-5 (29)
22.North Dakota St. +13.3 16-4 (38)
23.So. Mississippi +12.9 15-4 (53)
24.Belmont +12.5 15-4 (25)
25.Butler +12.4 16-2 (30)
26.BYU +12.2 15-5 (34)
27.Michigan St +12.2 17-3 (16)
28.Ohio St +12.1 14-4 (11)
29.Iowa St +11.9 13-4 (32)
30.Kentucky +11.8 12-6 (18)
31.LeHigh +11.6 13-4 (60)
32.North Carolina +11.5 12-5 (54)
33.Denver +11.5 11-7 (36)
34.Marquette +11.4 13-4 (33)
35.St.Joseph's +11.2 10-6 (59)
36.Wisconsin +11.2 13-6 (15)
37.Wichita St +11.0 17-2 (24)
38.Ohio +10.8 13-5 (74)
39.Connecticut +10.4 12-5 (48)
40.Akron +10.2 13-4 (47)
41.Bucknell +9.8 16-3 (43)
42.Illinois St +9.5 10-9 (75)
43.Missouri +9.4 14-4 (41)
44.Miami (F) +9.2 13-3 (19)
45.N.Iowa +9.2 10-9 (72)
46.Memphis +9.2 15-3 (46)
47.Kansas St. +9.1 15-3 (44)
48.Stephan Austin +8.9 16-1 (57)
49.Iowa +8.8 13-6 (28)
50.Arkansas +8.6 11-6 (65)
51.Cincinnati +8.6 16-4 (17)
52.Georgetown +8.3 13-4 (45)
53.Wyoming +7.6 15-2 (26)
54.Middle Tenn +7.3 16-4 (42)
55.Mississippi +7.2 15-2 (20)
56.Detroit +7.2 12-8 (73)
57.Oregon +7.1 16-2 (23)
58.Temple +7.0 12-5 (66)
59.Maryland +6.9 15-4 (61)
60.Alabama +6.8 12-6 (63)

Ranking of conferences (points awarded based on ranking position of teams in the top 60)...in parantheses in number of ranked teams.

Atlantic 10: 109 (4)
ACC: 150 (5)
Big 10: 274 (7)
Big 12: 137 (4)
Big East: 270 (8)
CUSA: 53 (2)
Horizon: 5 (1)
MAC: 44 (2)
MVC: 117 (4)
MWC: 129 (3)
OVC: 37 (1)
Pac 12: 96 (3)
Patriot: 50 (2)
SEC: 121 (6)
Southland: 13 (1)
Summit: 39 (1)
Sun Belt: 7 (1)
WAC: 36 (2)
WCC: 143 (3)
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brumdog44 Jan 25 2013, 11:21 PM Post #39
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Updated through Thursday, January 24th.

1. Gonzaga +21.1 (18-2)
2. Michigan +20.5 (18-1)
3. Pittsburgh +20.1 (16-4)
4. Creighton +19.8 (18-2)
5. Minnesota +18.6 (15-4)
6. Florida +18.3 (15-2)
7. Indiana +18.2 (17-2)
8. Notre Dame +17.3 (15-4)
9. Kansas +16.8 (18-1)
10.NC State +16.1 (15-4)
11.Duke +16.0 (16-2)
12.UCLA +15.9 (16-4)
13.Syracuse +15.8 (18-1)
14.St.Mary's +15.4 (16-4)
15.Boise St. +13.9 (14-4)
16.UNLV +13.9 (16-4)
17.Louisville +13.9 (16-3)
18.So. Mississippi +13.9 (16-4)
19.Baylor +13.7 (13-5)
20.VCU +13.6 (16-4)
21.Arizona +13.6 (16-2)
22.North Dakota St. +12.9 (16-4)
23.Colorado St. +12.9 (15-4)
24.Butler +12.8 (16-3)
25.Michigan St +12.3 (17-3)
26.BYU +12.1 (15-6)
27.Ohio St +11.9 (14-4)
28.Belmont +11.9 (16-4)
29.Kentucky +11.9 (12-6)
30.Marquette +11.5 (13-4)
31.LeHigh +11.4 (14-4)
32.Wisconsin +11.3 (13-6)
33.North Carolina +11.3 (13-5)
34.Ohio +11.2 (14-5)
35.St.Joseph's +10.8 (10-7)
36.Miami (F) +10.6 (14-3)
37.Iowa St +10.4 (13-5)
38.Denver +10.4 (11-8)
39.Wichita St +10.4 (18-2)
40.Connecticut +10.3 (12-5)
41.Akron +9.9 (14-4)
42.Bucknell +9.9 (16-4)
43.Detroit +9.8 (12-8)
44.Missouri +9.3 (14-4)
45.Arkansas +9.3 (12-6)
46.Memphis +9.2 (15-3)
47.Kansas St. +9.1 (15-3)
48.Northern Iowa +8.6 (11-9)
49.Wyoming +8.6 (15-2)
50.Illinois St +8.5 (11-9)
51.Iowa +8.5 (13-6)
52.Cincinnati +8.5 (16-4)
53.Georgetown +8.4 (13-4)
54.Virginia +7.7 (13-5)
55.Maryland +7.3 (15-4)
56.Middle Tenn St +7.3 (17-4)
57.San Diego St +7.2 (15-4)
58.Temple +7.2 (13-5)
59.Oregon +7.1 (17-2)
60.Alabama +6.8 (12-6)
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brumdog44 Jan 25 2013, 11:36 PM Post #40
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Indiana:
1. Zeller +5.8
2. Oladipo +5.6
3. Hulls +2.6
4. Watford +1.8
5. Sheehey +1.5
6. Ferrell +1.0
7. Abell +.6
8. Perea -.3
9. Hollowell -.5
10.Creek -1.2
11.Elston -1.4

Purdue
1. Hammons +1.6
2. Davis +.9
3. Carroll +.6
4. T.Johnson +.4
5. Byrd +.4
6. Lawson +.3
7. Marcius -.1
8. R.Johnson -.7
9. A.Johnson -1.3
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brumdog44 Jan 26 2013, 06:52 PM Post #41
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One thing I'd like to mention -- my AWAR model HATES New Mexico. Despite being 17-2 and ranked 15th, my AWAR has them ranked 64th. If my model is correct on them, then it would be expected that going forward they would start to falter. Today they are (they are down 19 with four and a half minutes left).

I'm going to try to track how the teams my AWAR likes much better than KenPom does (ones that ranked 10 spots higher on my AWAR and in my top 60) against ones that KenPom likes much better (ones that are ranked 10 spots higher on KenPom than on AWAR and in his top 60) and see which group does better.

The group my AWAR likes better:
Gonzaga (AWAR 1, KenPom 11)
Creighton (AWAR 4, KenPom 15)
Notre Dame (AWAR 8, KenPom 54...biggest difference)
North Carolina State (AWAR 10, KenPom 40)
UCLA (AWAR 12, KenPom 33)
St.Mary's (AWAR 14, KenPom 27)
Boise St (AWAR 15, KenPom 59)
So.Mississippi (AWAR 18, KenPom 29)
North Dakota St (AWAR 22, KenPom 39)
Brigham Young (AWAR 26, KenPom 41)
LeHigh (AWAR 31, KenPom 57)
North Carolina (AWAR 33, KenPom 47)
Ohio (AWAR 34, KenPom not top 60)
St.Joseph's (AWAR 35, KenPom not top 60)
Denver (AWAR 38, KenPom 52)
Connecticut (AWAR 40, KenPom 51)
Detroit (AWAR 43, KenPom not top 60
Arkansas (AWAR 45, KenPom not top 60)
Northern Iowa (AWAR 48, KenPom not top 60)
Illinois State (AWAR 50, KenPom not top 60)
Temple (AWAR 58, KenPom not top 60)


Ones that KenPom likes better
Louisville (KenPom 3, AWAR 14)
Ohio State (KenPom 10, AWAR 27)
Wisconsin (KenPom 13, AWAR 32)
Miami (F) (KenPom 14, AWAR 36)
Cincinnati (KenPom 18, AWAR 52)
Oklahoma St (KenPom 20, AWAR not top 60)
Mississippi (KenPom 22, AWAR not top 60)
Oregon (KenPom 23, AWAR 59)
Wichita St (KenPom 25, AWAR 39)
San Diego State (KenPom 28, AWAR 57)
New Mexico (KenPom 30, AWAR not top 60)
Virginia (KenPom 31, AWAR 54)
Iowa (KenPom 34, AWAR 51)
Wyoming (KenPom 37, AWAR 49)
Colorado (KenPom 38, AWAR not top 60)
Oklahoma (KenPom 53, AWAR not top 60)
Stephen F. Austin (KenPom 55, AWAR not top 60)
Dayton (KenPom 58, AWAR not top 60)
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sirbrianwilson Jan 27 2013, 11:24 PM Post #42
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Jan 26 2013, 06:52 PM
One thing I'd like to mention -- my AWAR model HATES New Mexico. Despite being 17-2 and ranked 15th, my AWAR has them ranked 64th. If my model is correct on them, then it would be expected that going forward they would start to falter. Today they are (they are down 19 with four and a half minutes left).

I'm going to try to track how the teams my AWAR likes much better than KenPom does (ones that ranked 10 spots higher on my AWAR and in my top 60) against ones that KenPom likes much better (ones that are ranked 10 spots higher on KenPom than on AWAR and in his top 60) and see which group does better.

The group my AWAR likes better:
Gonzaga (AWAR 1, KenPom 11)
Creighton (AWAR 4, KenPom 15)
Notre Dame (AWAR 8, KenPom 54...biggest difference)
North Carolina State (AWAR 10, KenPom 40)
UCLA (AWAR 12, KenPom 33)
St.Mary's (AWAR 14, KenPom 27)
Boise St (AWAR 15, KenPom 59)
So.Mississippi (AWAR 18, KenPom 29)
North Dakota St (AWAR 22, KenPom 39)
Brigham Young (AWAR 26, KenPom 41)
LeHigh (AWAR 31, KenPom 57)
North Carolina (AWAR 33, KenPom 47)
Ohio (AWAR 34, KenPom not top 60)
St.Joseph's (AWAR 35, KenPom not top 60)
Denver (AWAR 38, KenPom 52)
Connecticut (AWAR 40, KenPom 51)
Detroit (AWAR 43, KenPom not top 60
Arkansas (AWAR 45, KenPom not top 60)
Northern Iowa (AWAR 48, KenPom not top 60)
Illinois State (AWAR 50, KenPom not top 60)
Temple (AWAR 58, KenPom not top 60)


Ones that KenPom likes better
Louisville (KenPom 3, AWAR 14)
Ohio State (KenPom 10, AWAR 27)
Wisconsin (KenPom 13, AWAR 32)
Miami (F) (KenPom 14, AWAR 36)
Cincinnati (KenPom 18, AWAR 52)
Oklahoma St (KenPom 20, AWAR not top 60)
Mississippi (KenPom 22, AWAR not top 60)
Oregon (KenPom 23, AWAR 59)
Wichita St (KenPom 25, AWAR 39)
San Diego State (KenPom 28, AWAR 57)
New Mexico (KenPom 30, AWAR not top 60)
Virginia (KenPom 31, AWAR 54)
Iowa (KenPom 34, AWAR 51)
Wyoming (KenPom 37, AWAR 49)
Colorado (KenPom 38, AWAR not top 60)
Oklahoma (KenPom 53, AWAR not top 60)
Stephen F. Austin (KenPom 55, AWAR not top 60)
Dayton (KenPom 58, AWAR not top 60)
This is a great idea. Track those teams in a chart, looking at one week time periods for the rest of the season. It will be very interesting to see the strengths/weaknesses of each model side-by-side.

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brumdog44 Jan 28 2013, 12:07 AM Post #43
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I have a more advanced AWAR rating for teams that using the opposing team's shooting percentages as well...but it is a bear to get plugged in for teams. I have done it for Big Ten teams and have the following results:

Michigan 22.7
Indiana 22.1
Minnesota 21.1 (I use Ken Pom's SOS, btw...and Minnesota has the #1 SOS)
MSU 18.7
Wisconsin 18.2
Ohio St 17.3
Iowa 15.1
Purdue 12.7
Northwestern 12.5
Illinois 12.3
Nebraska 8.3
Penn State 6.4
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brumdog44 Jan 28 2013, 12:14 AM Post #44
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Players through Sunday:
1. Burke, Mich 8.5
2. Oladipo, Ind 5.8
3. Zeller, Ind 5.5
4. Mbawke, Minn 4.4
5. Thomas, OSU 3.8
6. An.Hollins, Minn 3.8
7. White, Iowa 3.6
8. Payne, MSU 3.5
9. Berggren, Wis 3.4
10.Hardaway, Mich 3.4
11.Robinson, Mich 3.3
12.Appling, MSU 3.0
13.Paul, Ill 3.0
14.Dawson, MSU 2.8
15.Scott, OSU 2.8
16.Hearn, NW 2.6
17.Williams, Minn 2.6
18.Au.Hollins, Minn 2.5
19.Hulls, Ind 2.5
20.Sobolewski, NW 2.4
21.Nix, MSU 2.4
22.Dekker, Wis 2.2
23.Brust, Wis 2.1
24.Craft, OSU 2.0
25.McGary, Mich 1.9
26.Stauskas, Mich 1.9
27.Newbill, Penn St 1.9
28.Watford, Ind 1.8
29.Abrams, Ill 1.8
30.Coleman, Minn 1.6
31.Sheehey, Ind 1.5
32.Bertrand, Ill 1.5
33.Marble, Iowa 1.5
34.Harris, MSU 1.5
35.Morgan, Mich 1.2
36.Hammons, Pur 1.1
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sirbrianwilson Jan 28 2013, 12:40 AM Post #45
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how are you importing the data now?
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