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First AWar stat calculations
Tweet Topic Started: Jan 2 2013, 12:47 AM (871 Views)
panchen_lama Jan 28 2013, 04:22 AM Post #46
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well, creighton and ND seem dubiously high in your rankings. but, otherwise, why not.

anyhow, the whole thing can't be much worse than what the 'experts' use...

well done
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brumdog44 Jan 28 2013, 10:50 PM Post #47
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sirbrianwilson
Jan 28 2013, 12:40 AM
how are you importing the data now?
By freaking hand. Seriously.
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brumdog44 Jan 28 2013, 10:57 PM Post #48
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panchen_lama
Jan 28 2013, 04:22 AM
well, creighton and ND seem dubiously high in your rankings. but, otherwise, why not.

anyhow, the whole thing can't be much worse than what the 'experts' use...

well done
Indiana and Purdue AWAR players entering The Showdown

Indiana:
1. Oladipo 5.8
2. Zeller 5.4
3. Hulls 2.4
4. Watford 1.7
5. Sheehey 1.4
6. Ferrell 0.9
7. Abell 0.5
8. Perea -0.4
9. Hollowell -0.4
10.Creek -1.3
11.Elston -1.4

Purdue:
1. Hammons 1.4
2. Davis 0.6
3. Carroll 0.6
4. T.Johnson 0.4
5. Byrd 0.4
6. Lawson 0.3
7. Marcius -0.1
8. Hale -0.5
9. R.Johnson -0.5
10.A.Johnson -1.5
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brumdog44 Jan 28 2013, 11:21 PM Post #49
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panchen_lama
Jan 28 2013, 04:22 AM
well, creighton and ND seem dubiously high in your rankings. but, otherwise, why not.

anyhow, the whole thing can't be much worse than what the 'experts' use...

well done
FWIW, when I use my more advanced rating system -- which incorporates full defensive statistics -- both those teams drop, as does Gonzaga.

I believe Florida is my top ranked team in the more advanced rating at +24.1. Michigan is at 22.7, Indiana is at 22.4. Haven't checked all the others, but Gonzaga is at 21.0 as is Creighton. Notre Dame drops down to 18.6, just ahead of Michigan State.
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brumdog44 Jan 31 2013, 04:55 PM Post #50
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Indiana and Purdue AWAR through the Mauling at Mackey:

Indiana:
1. Oladipo 6.0
2. Zeller 5.7
3. Hulls 2.3
4. Watford 2.0
5. Sheehey 1.8
6. Ferrell 1.2
7. Abell 0.7
8. Hollowell -0.3
9. Perea -0.4
10.Elston -0.6
11.Creek -1.3

Purdue:
1. Hammons +2.2
2. Carroll +0.6
3. Byrd +0.5
4. Davis +0.4
5. T.Johnson +0.4
6. Lawson +0.3
7. Marcius 0
8. R.Johnson -0.4
9. Hale -0.5
10.A.Johnson -1.4
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brumdog44 Feb 2 2013, 04:48 PM Post #51
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Big Ten team AWARs entering Saturday:

1. Michigan 21.9
2. Indiana 19.5
3. Minnesota 19.1
4. Mich St 13.4
5. Ohio St 12.1
6. Wisconsin 11.5
7. Northwestern 9.1
8. Iowa 8.0
9. Illinois 4.6
10.Purdue 3.1
11.Nebraska -.6
12.Penn St -3.6
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sirbrianwilson Feb 3 2013, 02:24 AM Post #52
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You're entering 50-some teams' data by hand? dude...there's gotta be a way...

br
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brumdog44 Feb 3 2013, 02:48 AM Post #53
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sirbrianwilson
Feb 3 2013, 02:24 AM
You're entering 50-some teams' data by hand? dude...there's gotta be a way...

br
Could be, but right now there isn't a downloadable database for the NCAA team's stats. Or at least one I've found.
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brumdog44 Feb 3 2013, 12:03 PM Post #54
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AWAR for IU and Purdue through Saturday:

IU
1. Oladipo +5.8218
2. Zeller +5.216
3. Hulls +2.5
4. Watford +2.3
5. Ferrell +1.5261
6. Sheehey +1.5255
7. Abell +.6
8. Hollowell -.2
9. Perea -.4
10.Elston -.6
11.Creek -1.1

Purdue
1. Hammons +2.4
2. Byrd +.7
3. Carroll +.6
4. Davis +.3
5. Lawson +.3
6. T.Johnson +.1
7. Marcius -.1
8. R.Johnson -.5
9. Hale -.7
10. AJohnson -1.1
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sirbrianwilson Feb 3 2013, 12:45 PM Post #55
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You need an intern.

br
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brumdog44 Feb 3 2013, 11:51 PM Post #56
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AWAR rankings through Sunday, Feb 3. (changes in ratings from last week in parentheses)

1. Michigan 21.9 (-.1); 20-2
2. Gonzaga 20.9 (-1.3); 21-2
3. Pittsburgh 20.7 (-.5); 18-5
4. Creighton 20.7 (+.5); 20-3
5. Florida 20.5 (+1.8); 18-2
6. Indiana 19.9 (+.5); 20-2
7. Minnesota 19.5 (-.1); 17-5
8. Notre Dame 19.3 (+.8); 18-4
9. Duke 17.6 (+.1); 19-2
10.NC State 16.7 (+.5); 16-6
11.Kansas 16.5 (-.2); 19-2
12.Syracuse 15.0 (-.8); 17-3
13.St.Mary's 14.5 (-.7); 19-4
14.UCLA 14.4 (-.6); 16-6
15.Louisville 13.9 (0); 17-4
16.UNLV 13.5 (0); 17-5
17.Michigan St 13.4 (+1.2); 18-4
18.Belmont 13.2 (+1); 19-4
19.So Mississippi 13.0 (+.1); 18-4
20.Kentucky 12.9 (+1.1); 15-6
21.St.Joseph's 12.8 (+1.6); 13-7
22.Colorado St. 12.6 (-.9); 18-4
23.BYU 12.5 (+.3); 18-6
24.Ohio St 12.5 (+.4); 17-4
25.Baylor 12.4 (-.9); 14-7
26.Marquette 12.2 (+.8); 15-5
27.North Carolina 12.1 (+.6); 15-6
28.Boise St 12.1 (-2.4); 15-6
29.Butler 12.0 (-.4); 18-4
30.North Dakota St 11.9 (+1.4); 18-5
31.VCU 11.9 (+2.2); 18-5
32.Arizona 11.8 (+2.4); 19-2
33.Miami(F) 11.8 (+2.6); 17-3
34.Denver 11.6 (+.1); 13-8
35.Ohio 11.4 (+.6); 15-6
36.Connecticut 11.3 (+.9); 14-5
37.Iowa St 11.1 (-.8); 15-6
38.Kansas St 10.9 (+1.8); 17-4
39.Akron 10.9 (+.7); 17-4
40.LeHigh 10.2 (-1.5) 16-5
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brumdog44 Feb 3 2013, 11:54 PM Post #57
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Teams in top 40 by conference:
Atlantic 10: 3
ACC: 4
Big 10: 5
Big 12: 4
Big East: 6
Conference USA: 1
MAC: 2
MVC: 1
Moutain West: 3
Ohio Valley: 1
Pac 12: 2
Patriot: 1
SEC: 2
Summit: 1
WAC: 1
WCC: 3
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sirbrianwilson Feb 4 2013, 01:42 AM Post #58
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creighton...
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brumdog44 Feb 4 2013, 07:40 AM Post #59
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Feb 4 2013, 01:42 AM
creighton...
I hear you. I believe if I used my more advanced AWAR formula which uses full defensive stats, they drop. Opponents shoot a higher percentage against them the most of hte other top ten teams plus Creighton isn't very good at causing turnovers.

edit: it was something that I had checked last week. Entering last week, on the advanced system Creighton has a +21.0 as did Gonzaga. Indiana was at +22.4 and Michigan was at +22.7. Florida lead all teams at +24.1.
Edited by brumdog44, Feb 4 2013, 07:44 AM.
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brumdog44 Feb 4 2013, 11:16 PM Post #60
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All players with a 4.0 or higher AWAR through Feb 3rd.

1. Burke, Michigan 8.8
2. Muscala, Bucknell 8.5
3. McDermott, Creighton 8.0
4. Olynyk, Gonzaga 7.6
5. Wolters, So Dakota St 7.5
6. Green, Va Tech 7.4
7. Plumlee, Duke 6.5
8. Cooley, ND 6.3
9. Hunter, Nicholl's St 6.0
10.Cooper, Ohio 6.0
11.McCrea, Buffalo 6.0
12.Zeller, Indiana 5.8
13.Williams, UCSB 5.8
14.Oladipo, Indiana 5.8
15.Carter-Williams, Syracuse 5.7
16.Bennett, UNLV 5.5
17.Jackson, Baylor 5.4
18.Dellavedova, St.Mary's 5.3
19.Howell, NC State 5.3
20.Porter, Georgetown 5.2
21.Brown, NC State 5.2
22.Cotton, Providence 5.1
23.Clark, Belmont 5.1
24.Hicks, NW State 4.9
25.Roquemore, Santa Clara 4.7
26.Hawkins, UC Davis 4.7
27.Daniel, Murray St 4.6
28.Franklin, San Diego St 4.6
29.Smart Oklahoma St 4.6
30.Benimon, Towson St 4.5
31.Hornug, Colorado St 4.5
32.Atkins, Notre Dame 4.4
33.McLemore, Kansas 4.4
34.Noel, Kentucky 4.4
35.Williams, Massachusetts 4.4
36.Gibbs, Creighton 4.3
37.Mbakwe, Minnesota 4.3
38.Ryan, Evansville 4.3
39.Cook, Duke 4.3
40.Rubit, South Alabama 4.2
41.An.Hollins, Minnesota 4.1
42.Withey, Kansas 4.1
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