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First AWar stat calculations
Tweet Topic Started: Jan 2 2013, 12:47 AM (870 Views)
brumdog44 Feb 8 2013, 10:15 PM Post #61
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Top 25 AWAR teams heading into this weekend's games.

1. Michigan +22.4 (21-2)
2. Gonzaga +20.6 (22-2)
3. Indiana +20.2 (20-3)
4. Florida +20.0 (18-3)
5.(tie) Creighton +19.8 (20-4)
Pittsburgh +19.8 (19-5)
7. Minnesota +19.7 (17-6)
8. Notre Dame +18.8 (18-5)
9. Duke +18.3 (20-2)
10. NC State +17.1 (16-7)
11. St.Mary's +15.5 (20-4)
12. Syracuse +15.4 (19-3)
13. Louisville +14.8 (19-4)
14. Kansas +14.5 (19-3)
15. So. Mississippi +13.9 (18-5)
16. Michigan State +13.9 (19-4)
17. Belmont +13.6 (19-5)
18. UCLA +13.3 (17-6)
19. St.Joseph's +13.2 (13-8)
20. Ohio St. +12.9 (17-5)
21. Kentucky +12.8 (16-6)
22. UNLV +12.8 (17-6)
23. Baylor +12.6 (14-8)
24. Colorado St. +12.5 (19-4)
25. Miami (F) +12.3 (18-3)
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brumdog44 Feb 9 2013, 11:22 PM Post #62
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Indiana AWAR headed into the Ohio State game. In parentheses is a player's AWAR for Big Ten games only.

1. Zeller +5.9 (+6.4)
2. Oladipo +5.7 (+6.4)
3. Hulls +2.5 (+1.1)
4. Watford +2.1 (+2.3)
5. Sheehey +1.6 (-0.2)
6. Ferrell +1.4 (+1.8)
7. Abell +0.5 (-0.7)
8. Hollowell +0.0 (+0.6)
9. Perea -0.3 (-0.6)
10.Elston -0.6 (+0.3)
11.Creek -1.0 (-1.3)
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brumdog44 Feb 12 2013, 01:31 AM Post #63
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Post Ohio State game:

1. Oladipo +6.2 (+7.5)
2. Zeller +6.2 (+6.9)
3. Hulls +2.4 (+0.9)
4. Watford +2.4 (+2.9)
5. Sheehey +1.5 (-0.3)
6. Ferrell +1.4 (+1.7)
7. Abell +0.5 (-0.7)
8. Hollowell +0.0 (+0.3)
9. Perea -0.3 (-0.6)
10.Creek -1.0 (-1.3)
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brumdog44 Feb 14 2013, 09:27 PM Post #64
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Through IU/Nebraska and Purdue/Illinois

Indiana
1. Oladipo +6.3
2. Zeller +6.1
3. Watford +2.4
4. Hulls +2.3
5. Sheehey +1.4
6. Ferrell +1.3
7. Abell +0.6
8. Hollowell -0.1
9. Perea -0.3
10.Elston -0.6
11.Creek -0.9

Purdue
1. Hammons +2.5
2. Carroll +0.5
3. Lawson +0.3
4. Byrd +0.2
5. Davis +0.1
6. Marcius +0.1
7. T.Johnson +0.1
8. R.Johnson -0.1
9. Hale -0.5
10.A.Johnson -1.1

Note: Ronnie Johnson has been moving up steadily.
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brumdog44 Feb 15 2013, 10:51 PM Post #65
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Top fifty AWAR teams through Thursday:

1. Gonzaga +21.0 (24-2)
2. Florida +20.43 (20-3)
3. Indiana +20.41 (22-3)
4. Pittsburgh +20.3 (20-5)
5. Michigan +20.2 (21-4)
6. Notre Dame +19.0 (20-5)
7. Creighton +18.6 (20-6)
8. Minnesota +18.2 (18-7)
9. Duke +17.4 (22-2)
10.NC State +17.1 (17-7)
11.Syracuse +15.3 (20-4)
12.St.Mary's +15.3 (21-5)
13.Kansas +14.7 (20-4)
14.Michigan St +14.6 (21-4)
15.So. MIssissippi +14.5 (19-6)
16.Louisville +14.5 (20-5)
17.UCLA +13.4 (18-7)
18. Miami (F) +13.1 (20-3)
19. Kentucky +13.0 (17-7)
20.Ohio State +12.9 (18-6)
21. Colorado St +12.8 (20-4)
22.Belmont +12.8 (20-6)
23.St.Joseph's +12.6 (14-9)
24.VCU +12.2 (20-5)
25.Denver +12.1 (16-8)
26. UNLV +12.0 (18-7)
27. Boise St +11.9 (16-7)
28. North Carolina +11.8 (16-8)
29. Iowa St +11.7 (16-8)
30. Baylor +11.7 (16-8)
31. Kansas St +11.5 (19-5)
32. Memphis +11.5 (21-3)
33. Arizona +11.5 (20-4)
34. Missouri +11.4 (18-6)
35. Connecticut +10.9 (17-6)
36. St.Louis +10.9 (18-5)
37. Iowa +10.7 (16-9)
38. Ohio +10.4 (18-6)
39. Butler +10.4 (20-5)
40. North Dakota St +9.9 (19-7)
41. BYU +9.8 (18-8)
42. Akron +9.7 (20-4)
43. Marquette +9.7 (17-6)
44. Virginia +9.5 (18-6)
45. LeHigh +9.4 (18-5)
46. Wichita St +9.4 (21-5)
47. Wisconsin +8.8 (17-8)
48. Stephen F. Austin +8.4 (21-2)
49. San Deigo St +8.2 (18-6)
50. Middle Tennessee St +8.1 (22-4)
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brumdog44 Feb 18 2013, 04:47 PM Post #66
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Big Ten Advanced AWAR through Sunday.

Team/offense rating/defense rating/overall rating
1. Indiana O: 25.1 D: 21.6 OV: 23.4
2. Michigan O: 26.8 D: 16.9 OV: 20.8
3. Minnesota O: 19.8 D: 18.6 OV: 19.2
4. Michigan State O: 17.8 D: 20.4 OV: 19.1
5. Wisconsin O: 15.9 D: 19.3 OV: 17.6
6. Ohio State O: 16.8 D: 18.2 OV: 17.5
7. Iowa O: 15.7 D: 16.6 OV: 16.2
8. Illinois O: 11.3 D: 14.9 OV: 13.1
9. Northwestern O: 13.2 D: 11.6 OV: 12.4
10. Purdue O: 8.4 D: 14.4 OV: 11.4
11. Nebraska O: 4.6 D: 11.2 OV: 7.9
12. Penn State O: 2.6 D: 9.0 OV: 5.8
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IUCOLTFAN Feb 18 2013, 06:06 PM Post #67
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brumdog44
Feb 18 2013, 04:47 PM
Big Ten Advanced AWAR through Sunday.

Team/offense rating/defense rating/overall rating
1. Indiana O: 25.1 D: 21.6 OV: 23.4
2. Michigan O: 26.8 D: 16.9 OV: 20.8
3. Minnesota O: 19.8 D: 18.6 OV: 19.2
4. Michigan State O: 17.8 D: 20.4 OV: 19.1
5. Wisconsin O: 15.9 D: 19.3 OV: 17.6
6. Ohio State O: 16.8 D: 18.2 OV: 17.5
7. Iowa O: 15.7 D: 16.6 OV: 16.2
8. Illinois O: 11.3 D: 14.9 OV: 13.1
9. Northwestern O: 13.2 D: 11.6 OV: 12.4
10. Purdue O: 8.4 D: 14.4 OV: 11.4
11. Nebraska O: 4.6 D: 11.2 OV: 7.9
12. Penn State O: 2.6 D: 9.0 OV: 5.8
Spots 2-4 are pretty tight. I guess it is safe to say that Purdue is almost half as good as we are.....keep reaching for the stars boys
Edited by IUCOLTFAN, Feb 18 2013, 06:08 PM.
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Maker13 Feb 18 2013, 07:06 PM Post #68
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Travis Carroll is the 2nd most effective player on our team. I thought I had already given up...I didn't know I could sink lower.
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brumdog44 Feb 18 2013, 10:38 PM Post #69
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Maker13
Feb 18 2013, 07:06 PM
Travis Carroll is the 2nd most effective player on our team. I thought I had already given up...I didn't know I could sink lower.
Sadly, Ken Pom has him with the highest offensive rating (although with Ken Pom, that rating doesn't take into account how often a player is shooting....it just recognizes that he's shooting 70%).
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brumdog44 Feb 18 2013, 10:49 PM Post #70
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Indiana v Michigan State AWAR matchups

Center: Zeller +6.2 vs. Nix +2.7
PF: Watford +2.5 vs. Payne +3.4
SF: Oladipo +6.0 vs. Dawson +3.0
SG: Hulls +2.5 vs. Harris +2.0
PG: Ferrell +1.3 vs. Appling +3.3

Bench
Indiana: Sheehey +1.8, Abell +0.5, Hollowell -0.3, Creek -0.8, Elston -0.7
Michigan St: Valentine +1.6, Trice -1.0, Byrd -1.2, Guana -0.2, Costello 0.5
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Rockspeed Feb 18 2013, 10:52 PM Post #71
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It's going to be a war tomorrow
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brumdog44 Feb 21 2013, 10:47 PM Post #72
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First comprehensive Advanced AWAR ranking of top 25....rating system that does a better job of incorporating defensive stats. Teams that I have rated were the ones that received votes in the AP poll, so it is possible that there are teams that didn't receive votes that would make my top twenty-five.

1. Indiana +23.3
2. Gonzaga +22.0
3. Florida +21.8
4. Michigan +20.8
5. Pittsburgh +20.7
6. Louisville +20.6
7. Kansas +19.9
8. Syracuse +19.8
9. Creighton +19.5
10.Michigan St +19.1
11.Georgetown +18.40
12.Colorado St. +18.37
13.Wisconsin +18.22
14.Notre Dame +18.21
15.Ohio State +17.7
16.Marquette +17.5
17.Duke +17.4
18.Miami +17.3
19.Arizona +17.24
20.Kansas St +17.23
21.NC State +16.6
22.UCLA +16.4
23.St.Mary's +16.3
24.Missouri +16.1
25.Memphis +15.6

Conclusions: advanced AWAR still concludes the Big Ten is the best overall conference followed by the Big East and feels the ACC -- especially Miami and Duke -- are overrated. Still likes Creighton despite their recent woes.....but Creighton is trending very downward as they were second or third in some very early AWAR ratings.
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sirbrianwilson Feb 23 2013, 03:05 PM Post #73
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brumdog44
Feb 21 2013, 10:47 PM
First comprehensive Advanced AWAR ranking of top 25....rating system that does a better job of incorporating defensive stats. Teams that I have rated were the ones that received votes in the AP poll, so it is possible that there are teams that didn't receive votes that would make my top twenty-five.

1. Indiana +23.3
2. Gonzaga +22.0
3. Florida +21.8
4. Michigan +20.8
5. Pittsburgh +20.7
6. Louisville +20.6
7. Kansas +19.9
8. Syracuse +19.8
9. Creighton +19.5
10.Michigan St +19.1
11.Georgetown +18.40
12.Colorado St. +18.37
13.Wisconsin +18.22
14.Notre Dame +18.21
15.Ohio State +17.7
16.Marquette +17.5
17.Duke +17.4
18.Miami +17.3
19.Arizona +17.24
20.Kansas St +17.23
21.NC State +16.6
22.UCLA +16.4
23.St.Mary's +16.3
24.Missouri +16.1
25.Memphis +15.6

Conclusions: advanced AWAR still concludes the Big Ten is the best overall conference followed by the Big East and feels the ACC -- especially Miami and Duke -- are overrated. Still likes Creighton despite their recent woes.....but Creighton is trending very downward as they were second or third in some very early AWAR ratings.
Today's Miami game gave credence to your stat.

br
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brumdog44 Feb 23 2013, 06:07 PM Post #74
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IMO, today's loss by Miami was just the shoe finally dropping. After they peaked by destroying UNC, they laid three straight eggs and eeked by two bad teams and one okay team...all in games where those teams really didn't play particularly well.

I wouldn't call them over rated because if you go simply by win/loss resume, theirs is okay. But if you go by actual overall court performance, they aren't a top ten team IMO. They certainly have had some head scratching games.
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brumdog44 Feb 23 2013, 06:09 PM Post #75
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My AWAR hasn't regarded New Mexico very highly, but they had a nice win today at Colorado State, a team that my AWAR does like.
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