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AWAR tourney notes
Tweet Topic Started: Mar 11 2013, 10:13 PM (262 Views)
brumdog44 Mar 11 2013, 10:13 PM Post #1
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Ignore the thread if you don't want the stat geekdom.

Right now, the cut off point at large bids in terms of how advanced AWAR ranks teams is someone a little above the +14.5 mark.

I'll be keeping tracking and posting the advanced AWAR points for teams as they win their conference tournaments and for those that are potential at large bids I'll be giving their AWARs as they are eliminated from their conference tournaments.

Conference champions:
Florida Gulf Coast: +10.1
Creighton: +20.2
Liberty: +5.3
Belmont +15.8

Potential at large bids who have been eliminated from conference tourney:
Middle Tennessee +15.4. Interesting case, they went 28-5 and had won 19 in a row before losing in their conference tourney. Weak schedule, but 28 wins is impressive. Ken Pom also loves this team -- has them ranked at #31.
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brumdog44 Mar 12 2013, 11:44 PM Post #2
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Updated through Monday's tourney championship games:

Automatic bids:
Florida Gulf Coast: +10.1
Creighton: +20.2
Liberty: +5.3
Belmont +15.8
Gonzaga +22.1
James Madison +6.4
Davidson +12.8
Western Kentucky +7.7
Iona +12.8

Potential at large teams that did not win their conference tournies:
Middle Tennessee State +15.4
St.Mary's +16.0
BYU +13.9
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HoosierKDH82 Mar 13 2013, 11:26 AM Post #3
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Sorry if you've already explained/detailed this before, but how exactly is the AWAR calculated? Just curious. Thanks.
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brumdog44 Mar 13 2013, 06:03 PM Post #4
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HoosierKDH82
Mar 13 2013, 11:26 AM
Sorry if you've already explained/detailed this before, but how exactly is the AWAR calculated? Just curious. Thanks.
At this point, it's evolved to a point where it's hard for me even to remember the complete calculation. :P

Anyway, individual AWAR is meant to figure how much an individual player would increase a 10 win lower mid major team's number of wins in a 30 win season. If I remember the details correctly, a player who would be neutral (+0.0) in 40 minutes of play would score 12 points while taking 12 shots, taking 3 1/2 free throws, pulls down 6 rebounds, has 2 1/2 assists, 1/2 block, has 1 steal, and turns it over 4 times/game. A player can increase or decrease his AWAR by shooting a better than 40% adjusted field goal percentage (basically multiples three pointers by 1.5), shoots better than 67% from the line, rebounding compared to minutes played, steals compared to minutes played, blocked shots to minutes played.....but that's also adjusted based how often they shoot -- i.e., a player shooting 60% only 3 times in 20 minutes isn't as valuable as someone shooting 8 times per game at 50%. This is also adjusted for the pace their team plays -- i.e., Wisconsin has fewer possessions/game, so their players get a bump on their AWAR -- i.e., a player with the same stats on Wisky would be more valuable than a player on Indiana since IU has more possessions/game; also, there is an adjustment for strength of schedule.

Right now, Trey Burke leads the nation with an AWAR of around +9, so my projection would be that he could take a 10-20 team like Ball State and if he did nothing more than put up the same stats he did with Michigan, would turn them into a 19-11 team. Zeller is around +6, so he is projected to make them 16-14.

Note that the number of minutes a player plays does effect their AWAR -- i.e., Will Sheehey's AWAR is lower than Christian Watford's, but if they played the same number of minutes/game, Sheehey's would be slightly higher.

There are two AWAR measures for teams....the first is based just on the team's offensive numbers plus their number of steals and blocks, with the adjustments for SOS and pace. This measurement is not as accurate as I would like it to be, so I created an advanced team AWAR -- it uses the team's full offensive and defensive stats, but does eliminate steals and blocks since they aren't true measures of team defense (blocking lots of shots creates lower team field goal percentages and steals leads to turnovers, so putting them in would double count it).

The advanced AWAR comes out a little too high -- it probably should be at about 80% of what the number is. For IU, their team AWAR is in the +23 mark...80% of that is +18.4. That would mean that it would be expected as a mid major team with a mid major schedule, they would be 18.4 games better than a 10 win team...so they would be expected to win 28.4 out of 30 games.
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HoosierKDH82 Mar 13 2013, 06:55 PM Post #5
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Thanks. Appreciate you taking the time to explain. Very informative. I wonder if this could be applied to High School basketball too in some way.
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Indiana, we're all for you!
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sirbrianwilson Mar 13 2013, 07:07 PM Post #6
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Likely not enough games played at the HS level.

br
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brumdog44 Mar 13 2013, 08:51 PM Post #7
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Mar 13 2013, 07:07 PM
Likely not enough games played at the HS level.

br
It could be done, but really not real reliable since SOS isn't really accurately measured.
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brumdog44 Mar 13 2013, 08:55 PM Post #8
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Automatic bids:
Florida Gulf Coast: +10.1
Creighton: +20.2
Liberty: +5.3
Belmont +15.8
Gonzaga +22.1
James Madison +6.4
Davidson +12.8
Western Kentucky +7.7
Iona +12.8
Long Island Brooklyn +7.5
Harvard +12.7
South Dakota State +12.1
Valparaiso +13.0

Potential at large teams that did not win their conference tournies:
Middle Tennessee State +15.4
St.Mary's +16.0
BYU +13.9

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sirbrianwilson Mar 13 2013, 10:09 PM Post #9
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Go Liberty!!!
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brumdog44 Mar 14 2013, 11:09 PM Post #10
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Two teams to add from Monday's games:

Bucknell (+14.6) won the Patriot league.
Boise State (+15.0) lost in their conference tournament but are a potential at large.
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brumdog44 Mar 16 2013, 12:17 AM Post #11
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AWAR ratings through Thursday games with conference champions and ratings for team that have lost in their conference tourneys but could possibly get an at large bid:

Conference champion
Florida Gulf Coast +10.1
Creighton +20.2
Liberty +5.3
Belmont +15.8
Gonzaga +22.1
James Madison +6.4
Davidson +12.8
Western Kentucky +7.7
Iona +12.8
LIU-Brooklyn +7.5
Harvard +12.7
South Dakota State +12.2
Valparaiso +13.0
Bucknell +14.6

Potential at large
Minnesota +18.2
Oklahoma +13.6
Marquette +17.1
Pittsburgh +20.1
Villanova +13.7
Cincinnati +14.5
Wichita State +15.4
California +14.6
Colorado +13.5
Middle Tennessee +15.1
St.Mary's +16.0
BYU +13.9
Boise State +15.0
Denver +16.2
Lou Tech +10.1

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brumdog44 Mar 16 2013, 11:46 PM Post #12
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Through Friday's games...at large potential AWARs listed for those who are in contention for at large bids.

Conference champions:
Gonzaga +22.1
Creighton +20.2
Belmont +15.8
Bucknell +14.6
Valparaiso +13
Davidson +12.8
Iona +12.8
Harvard +12.7
South Dakota St +12.2
Florida Gulf Coast +11.3
Western Kentucky +7.7
LIU-Brooklyn +7.5
James Madison +6.4
Liberty +5.3

Potential at large ratings
Pittsburgh +20.1
Michigan +19.3
Duke +18.8
Georgetown +18.6
Minnesota +18.2
Notre Dame +18.2
Marquette +17.1
Colorado St +17.0
Missouri +16.9
Arizona +16.6
Iowa +16.2
Virginia +16.2
Kentucky +16.2
Denver +16.2
St.Mary's +16
San Diego State +15.7
Iowa State +15.5
Wichita State +15.4
Oklahoma State +15.1
Middle Tennessee +15.1
Boise State +15
California +14.6
Cincinnati +14.5
BYU +13.9
Villanova +13.7
Oklahoma +13.6
Colorado +13.5
Temple +12.7
Illinois +11.9
Tennessee +11.9
Louisiana Tech +11.3
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tAmazingHoosier Mar 17 2013, 02:05 AM Post #13
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Boooooo.... so basically UK gets in. Fuck thatttttt. I hope we get those suckers.
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brumdog44 Mar 17 2013, 02:50 AM Post #14
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Mar 17 2013, 02:05 AM
Boooooo.... so basically UK gets in. Fuck thatttttt. I hope we get those suckers.
They get in by power rating...but that isn't at all at what the NCAA is going to look at. I have very little doubt they are out because of their record since Noels went down. In fact, if how they have played since he's went down was a factor on my system, they wouldn't make. Their AWAR has dropped dramatically since his absence.

I have now completed all teams through Saturday's games....there are still conference championship games left. IMO, all eight of those teams will be in the actual tourney -- however, by AWAR rankings, the SEC game would have a bearing on whether Ole Miss got in. Win and they are in, could possibly still get in with a loss but they would have to put up good numbers. The strange thing is that the team they would be fighting for the last spot for is actually Butler...AWAR is not a fan of theirs, but strangely KenPom ranks them even lower (AWAR has them as the 50th best team, KenPom has them at 52).

Conferences that deserve at large bids according to AWAR:

Big Ten: teams in : Indiana +22.2, Michigan State +19.4, Michigan +19.3, Minnesota +18.2, Iowa +16.2, WIsconsin and Ohio State AWAR TBD. Note: AWAR feels Illinois is very overrated and should be omitted.

WCC: Gonzaga +22.1, St.Mary's +16.0

Big East: Louisville +20.6, Pittsburgh +20.1, Georgetown +18.6, Syracuse +18.4, Notre dame +18.2, Marquette +17.1, Cincinnati +14.5.

Big 12: Kansas +20.5, Kansas St +16.5, Iowa St +15.5, Oklahoma State +15.1.

MVC: Creighton +20.2, Wichita State +15.4

ACC: Duke +18.8, NC State +16.9, Virginia +16.2, Maryland +15.2, Miami and North Carolina AWAR TBD

Moutain West: New Mexico +17.2, UNLV +17.1, Colorado State +17, San Diego State +15.7, Boise State +15.1

Conference USA: Memphis +16, So. Miss +15.4

Sun Belt" Western Kentucky +7.7, Middle Tennessee St +15.1

Southland: Northwestern St +11.1, Stephen Austin +15.1

SEC: Florida AWAR TBD, Missouri +16.9, Kentucky +16.2, Ole Miss in with good championship game.

Atlantic 10: VCU and St.Louis AWAR TBD, Butler if Ole Miss does not have good SEC title game.

WAC: New Mexico State +12.1, Denver +16.2

PAC 12: Arizona +16.6, UCLA +16, California +14.6, Oregon +13.8.








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brumdog44 Mar 17 2013, 11:17 PM Post #15
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AWAR 1st round predictions (play in winners values were used for team with higher AWAR):

EAST:
1 Indiana by 24 over 16 LIU-Brooklyn
2 Miami by 7 over 15 Pacific
3 Marquette by 7 of 14 Davison
4 Syracuse by 15 over 13 Montana
5 UNLV by 4 over 12 California
*potential upset*:
6 Bulter/11 Bucknell pick'em
*upset*
10 Colorado by 3 over 7 Illinois
8 NC State by 7 over 9 Temple

MIDWEST
1 Louisville by 24 over 16 Liberty
2 Duke by 17 over 15 Albany
3 Michigan State by 10 over 14 Valpo
4 St.Louis by 4 over 13 New Mexico State
5 Oklahoma State by 2 over 12 Oregon
*potential upset*
6 Memphis/St.Mary's pick'em
7 Creighton by 9 over 10 Cincinnati
*potential upset*
8 Colorado St/Missouri pick'em

SOUTH
1 Kansas by 21 over 16 W.Kentucky
2 Georgetown by 12 over 15 Florida GC
3 Florida by 18 over 14 Northwestern St
4 Michigan by 11 over 13 South Dakota St
5 VCU by 2 over 12 Akron
*upset*
11 Minnesota by 4 over 6 UCLA
7 San Diego St by 3 over 10 Oklahoma
8 North Carolina by 5 over 9 Villanova

West
1 Gonzaga by 21 over 16 Southern
2 Ohio State by 9 over 15 Iona
3 New Mexico by 7 over 14 Harvard
4 Kansas St by 2 over 13 Boise St
5 Wisconsin by 6 over 12 Ole Miss
6 Arizona by 1 over 11 Belmont
7 Notre Dame by 4 over 10 Iowa St
8 Pittsburgh by 8 over 9 Wichita State
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