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| Welcome to Our Hoosier Board! Most of the posters here have been around for nearly a decade now. You'll find their knowledge and insight to be second to none. We have a really strong community and value everyone's opinions. Feel free to jump into any thread and voice your opinion with conviction. We love heated debates and even some fanbase ribbing from time to time. We pride ourselves on the lack of moderation needed to make this board successful. Please remember that we have been around many years and have an astute ability to tell the difference between an immature, childish, trash-talking troll and a passionate fan voicing his or her opinion. It is at the discretion of Jazen and myself whether any moderating actions should be taken at any given time. It's a very, very rare thing. In other words, no worries....you'll be fine! Cheers, sirbrianwilson Join our community! If you're already a member please log in to your account to access all of our features: |
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| AWAR tourney notes | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Mar 11 2013, 10:13 PM (261 Views) | |
| brumdog44 | Mar 18 2013, 03:12 PM Post #16 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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Final AWAR totals for Indiana (last year's rating in parenthesis if applicable): 1. Zeller +6.08 (+6.06) 2. Oladipo +5.69 (+2.46) 3. Watford +2.06 (+1.72) 4. Hulls +2.04 (+2.84) 5. Sheehey +1.83 (+0.98) 6. Ferrell +1.44 7. Abell +0.48 (+0.21) 8. Hollowell -0.32 9. Perea -0.40 10.Elston -0.50 (+0.58) 11.Creek -0.55 |
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| brumdog44 | Mar 18 2013, 03:15 PM Post #17 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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Purdue final AWAR ratings: 1. Hammons +2.25 2. T.Johnson +0.93 3. Byrd +0.90 4. Davis +0.73 5. Marcius +0.46 6. Carroll +0.42 7. Lawson +0.32 8. R.Johnson +0.08 9. Anthrop -0.16 10.Hale -0.55 11.A.Johnson -0.90 |
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| JK1967 | Mar 18 2013, 03:42 PM Post #18 |
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All-Star
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Most of these are within 1-3 points of the opening betting lines. |
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| brumdog44 | Mar 18 2013, 08:02 PM Post #19 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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Going into the NCAA tournament, for the first time since I started calculating individual AWAR this year, Trey Burke slipped to the #2 spot. Nate Wolters of South Dakota State (averaged 22.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.8 assists for the Summit League champions). The two of them will meet in the opening game. Wolters has put up big numbers against some of tougher teams SD State has played. He put up 30 on 10 of 15 shooting in a 3 point loss to Alabama; he had 28 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists in a 5 point win over New Mexico; in a bracket buster game against Murray State he had 18 points on 7 of 10 shooting. Granted it was against IPFW and Oakland, but he put up 89 points in those two games combined on 29 of 48 shooting; they needed every bit of his 53 points against IPFW (17 of 28 from the field including 9 of 14 from three) as he scored 53 of their 80 points in an 80-74 win. Wolters might be guarding Burke quite a bit....he certainly can't match Burke's speed, but he does have 4 inches on him. The Jackrabbits start 4 players from 6'4" to 6'8". |
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| brumdog44 | Mar 18 2013, 09:00 PM Post #20 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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Actual seed v. Ken Pom seed v. AWAR Comparison of seeds given to teams followed by KenPom seed power rating of the teams that are in followed by AWAR seed rating of the teams that are in. actual seed/KenPom/AWAR Indiana: 1 1 1 Gonzaga: 1 1 1 Louisville: 1 1 1 Kansas: 1 2 2 Duke: 2 2 2 Georgetown: 2 2 3 Ohio State: 2 3 3 Miami: 2 4 6 Florida: 3 1 1 Michigan State: 3 3 2 New Mexico: 3 5 5 Marquette: 3 7 5 Michigan: 4 3 3 Syracuse: 4 4 3 Kansas State 4 7 7 St.Louis 4 4 10 Wisconsin 5 3 4 UNLV 5 9 5 Oklahoma State 5 5 9 VCU 5 6 9 Arizona 6 5 6 UCLA 6 10 8 Memphis 6 9 7 Butler 6 12 11 Creighton 7 4 2 Notre Dame 7 8 4 San Diego State 7 7 8 Illinois 7 10 14 Pittsburgh 8 2 2 Colorado State 8 6 5 NC State 8 9 6 North Carolina 8 7 7 Missouri 9 5 6 Wichita State 9 8 9 Villanova 9 11 11 Temple 9 13 13 Iowa State 10 9 8 Cincinnati 10 10 11 Oklahoma 10 11 12 Colorado 10 11 12 Minnesota 11 6 4 St.Mary's 11 11 8 Belmont 11 8 9 Middle Tenn 11 13 10 Bucknell 12 12 10 California 12 11 12 Akron 12 12 11 Oregon 12 8 12 Ole Miss 12 8 12 Boise State 13 11 10 South Dakota State 13 14 14 New Mexico State 13 13 14 Montana 13 15 15 LaSalle 13 12 13 Valparaiso 14 13 12 Davidson 14 13 13 Harvard 14 14 13 Northwestern St 14 15 15 Iona 15 14 13 Pacific 15 14 14 Florida Gulf Coast 15 15 16 Albany 16 16 15 Southern 16 16 16 W.Kentucky 16 16 16 LIU-Brooklyn 16 16 16 James Madison 16 16 16 Liberty 16 16 16 NC A&T 16 16 16 |
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| brumdog44 | Mar 18 2013, 09:07 PM Post #21 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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Teams that KenPom feels were seeded incorrectly by two or more spots: underseeded: Florida (3, should be 1) Wisconsin (5, should be 3) Creighton (7, should be 4) Pittsburgh (8, should be 2) Colorado State (8, should be 6) Missouri (9, should be 5) Minnesota (11, should be 6) St.Mary's (11, should be 6) Middle Tenn (11, should be 8) Ole Miss (12, should be 8) Boise State (13, should be 11) overseeded Miami (2, should be 4) New Mexico (3, should be 5) Marquette (3, should be 7) Kansas State (4, should be 7) UNLV (5, should be 9) UCLA (6, should be 10) Memphis (6, should be 9) Butler (6, should be 12) Illinois (7, should be 10) Villanova (9, should be 11) Temple (9, should be 13) Bucknell (11, should be 13) |
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| mongo | Mar 18 2013, 09:08 PM Post #22 |
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Coach
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Creightons a 2 for awar? |
![]() "Son, if you really want something in this life you have to work hard for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers." | |
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| brumdog44 | Mar 18 2013, 09:13 PM Post #23 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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AWAR Over and underseeded Underseeded: Florida (3, should be 1) Creighton (7, should be 2) Notre Dame (7, should be 4) Pittsburgh (8, should be 2) Colorado State (8, should be 5) NC State (8, should be 6) Missouri (9, should be 6) Iowa State (10, should be 8) Minnesota (11, should be 4) St.Mary's (11, should be 7) Belmont (11, should be 8) Middle Tenn (11, should be 9) California (12, should be 10) Boise State (13, should be 10) Valparaiso (14, should be 12) Iona (15, should be 13) Overseeded Ohio State (2, should be 4) Miami (2, should be 6) New Mexico (3, should be 5) Kansas State (4, should be 7) St.Louis (4, should be 10) Oklahoma State (5, should be 9) VCU (5, should be 9) UCLA (6, should be 8) Butler (6, should be 11) Illinois (7, should be 14) Temple (9, should be 13) Oklahoma (10, should be 12) Colorado (10, should be 12) |
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| brumdog44 | Mar 18 2013, 09:28 PM Post #24 |
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And a 4 in KenPom. Both systems really like Creighton. The computer ratings love Creighton....they are 6th overall in AWAR, 15th in KenPom, and 17th in Sagarin. Part of their lure is the uncommon stat combination of leading division one in both field goal percentage (52%) AND three point field goal percentage (42%). They also shot 75% from the line. I don't honestly believe that Creighton is the sixth best team in the nation....however, I do think they are still underrated in terms of seeding. Right now they most definitely are not a top ten team....they finished 10-6 after a 17-1 start....but I think they underseeded as a 7, IMO. The NCAA has Illinois and Creighton both as 7 seeds....I simply can't see that. |
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| brumdog44 | Mar 19 2013, 07:16 PM Post #25 |
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AWAR exact score predictions Play in games: Long Island 76, James Madison 74 St.Mary's 70, Middle Tenn 68 Liberty 63, NC A&T 62 LaSalle 72, Boise State 72 (note: LaSalle is a 0.4 point favorite) Round 1: East 1 Indiana 96, 16 LIU 69 2 Miami 70, 15 Pacific 61 3 Marquette 75, 14 Davidson 65 4 Syracuse 75, 13 Montana 57 5 UNLV 70, 12 California 67 11 Bucknell 65, 6 Butler 65 (Bucknell is a 0.3 point favorite 10 Colorado 64, 7 Illinois 61 8 NC State 83, 9 Temmple 74 Midwest 1 Louisville 76, 16 NC A&T 44 2 Duke 79, 15 Albany 57 3 Michigan St 75, 14 Valparaiso 57 4 St.Louis 63, 13 New Mexico St 60 5 Oklahoma St 71, 12 Oregon 65 11 St Mary's 76, 6 Memphis 76 (St.Mary's +0.2) 7 Creighton 73, 10 Cincinnati 62 8 Colorado St 73, 9 Missouri 72 South: 1 Kansas 82, 16 W.Kentucky 61 2 Georgetown 72, 15 Florida GC 54 3 Florida 85, 14 Northwestern St 58 4 Michigan 81, 13 South Dakota St 67 5 VCU 72, 12 Akron 71 11 Minnesota 73, 6 UCLA 70 7 San Diego St 69, 10 Oklahoma 65 8 North Carolina 75, 9 Villanova 69 West 1 Gonzaga 79, 16 Southern 52 2 Ohio State 81, 15 Iona 68 3 New Mexico 71, 14 Harvard 60 4 Kansas State 72, 13 LaSalle 65 5 Wisconsin 71, 12 Ole Miss 63 6 Arizona 74, 11 Belmont 72 7 Notre Dame 77, 10 Iowa State 73 8 Pittsburgh 68, 9 Wichita State 59 |
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| sirbrianwilson | Mar 19 2013, 11:25 PM Post #26 |
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Stemlerite
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I can not BELIEVE mtsu lost their play-in game. wow. br |
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| brumdog44 | Mar 20 2013, 06:40 AM Post #27 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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Bet that really busted your bracket. You had them going to at least the elite eight, right? |
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| sirbrianwilson | Mar 20 2013, 01:40 PM Post #28 |
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Stemlerite
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ha...i had them in the round of 32, although, that pick still may be safe if SMU pulls out a miracle. MTSU had a pretty decent season. I think they even deserved more than a play-in. br |
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| brumdog44 | Mar 20 2013, 05:30 PM Post #29 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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AWAR ranked them as the 33rd best at large team. The 34th through 37th at large teams play in play in games. AWAR had them on the 11 seed line, but not in a play in game. Other AWAR items: The most overrated conference -- by far -- is the Atlantic 10. AWAR had the Atlantic 10 deserving of only three teams -- VCU (41st overall, deserves an 11 seed), St.Louis (auto bid, 44th overall, deserves an 11 seed), and the last at large team, Butler (48th overall, deserving 12th seed in a play in game). LaSalle and Temple -- which made it in the actual tourney -- are rated by AWAR to be the 8th and 9th teams below the last at large bid. AWAR also doesn't believe that the West bracket is the weakest one. It says that Indiana's eastern bracket is the weakest -- but it does buy into the notion that the path Indiana has to the elite eight is not easy. If IU has to go through the 8th seed NC State and 4th seed Syracuse, AWAR believes they will be playing the 5th best team and 2nd best team in the East instead of the 8th and 4th. |
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| TRoss54 | Mar 20 2013, 10:50 PM Post #30 |
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All-Star
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I noticed that many of the overseeded teams are in the east region, good news for us. |
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