Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]
Logo
Search Members FAQ Portal
  • Navigation
  • Our Hoosier Board
  • →
  • Big Ten Sports
  • →
  • Hoosier Sports
  • →
  • AWAR tourney notes
Welcome to Our Hoosier Board!

Most of the posters here have been around for nearly a decade now. You'll find their knowledge and insight to be second to none. We have a really strong community and value everyone's opinions.

Feel free to jump into any thread and voice your opinion with conviction. We love heated debates and even some fanbase ribbing from time to time. We pride ourselves on the lack of moderation needed to make this board successful.

Please remember that we have been around many years and have an astute ability to tell the difference between an immature, childish, trash-talking troll and a passionate fan voicing his or her opinion. It is at the discretion of Jazen and myself whether any moderating actions should be taken at any given time. It's a very, very rare thing. In other words, no worries....you'll be fine!

Cheers,
sirbrianwilson

Join our community!


If you're already a member please log in to your account to access all of our features:

Username:   Password:
Add Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
AWAR tourney notes
Tweet Topic Started: Mar 11 2013, 10:13 PM (261 Views)
brumdog44 Mar 18 2013, 03:12 PM Post #16
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
Final AWAR totals for Indiana (last year's rating in parenthesis if applicable):

1. Zeller +6.08 (+6.06)
2. Oladipo +5.69 (+2.46)
3. Watford +2.06 (+1.72)
4. Hulls +2.04 (+2.84)
5. Sheehey +1.83 (+0.98)
6. Ferrell +1.44
7. Abell +0.48 (+0.21)
8. Hollowell -0.32
9. Perea -0.40
10.Elston -0.50 (+0.58)
11.Creek -0.55
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Mar 18 2013, 03:15 PM Post #17
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
Purdue final AWAR ratings:
1. Hammons +2.25
2. T.Johnson +0.93
3. Byrd +0.90
4. Davis +0.73
5. Marcius +0.46
6. Carroll +0.42
7. Lawson +0.32
8. R.Johnson +0.08
9. Anthrop -0.16
10.Hale -0.55
11.A.Johnson -0.90
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
JK1967 Mar 18 2013, 03:42 PM Post #18
All-Star
Posts:
1,565
Group:
Members
Member
#5
Joined:
February 4, 2008
brumdog44
Mar 17 2013, 11:17 PM
AWAR 1st round predictions (play in winners values were used for team with higher AWAR):

EAST:
1 Indiana by 24 over 16 LIU-Brooklyn
2 Miami by 7 over 15 Pacific
3 Marquette by 7 of 14 Davison
4 Syracuse by 15 over 13 Montana
5 UNLV by 4 over 12 California
*potential upset*:
6 Bulter/11 Bucknell pick'em
*upset*
10 Colorado by 3 over 7 Illinois
8 NC State by 7 over 9 Temple

MIDWEST
1 Louisville by 24 over 16 Liberty
2 Duke by 17 over 15 Albany
3 Michigan State by 10 over 14 Valpo
4 St.Louis by 4 over 13 New Mexico State
5 Oklahoma State by 2 over 12 Oregon
*potential upset*
6 Memphis/St.Mary's pick'em
7 Creighton by 9 over 10 Cincinnati
*potential upset*
8 Colorado St/Missouri pick'em

SOUTH
1 Kansas by 21 over 16 W.Kentucky
2 Georgetown by 12 over 15 Florida GC
3 Florida by 18 over 14 Northwestern St
4 Michigan by 11 over 13 South Dakota St
5 VCU by 2 over 12 Akron
*upset*
11 Minnesota by 4 over 6 UCLA
7 San Diego St by 3 over 10 Oklahoma
8 North Carolina by 5 over 9 Villanova

West
1 Gonzaga by 21 over 16 Southern
2 Ohio State by 9 over 15 Iona
3 New Mexico by 7 over 14 Harvard
4 Kansas St by 2 over 13 Boise St
5 Wisconsin by 6 over 12 Ole Miss
6 Arizona by 1 over 11 Belmont
7 Notre Dame by 4 over 10 Iowa St
8 Pittsburgh by 8 over 9 Wichita State
Most of these are within 1-3 points of the opening betting lines.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Mar 18 2013, 08:02 PM Post #19
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
Going into the NCAA tournament, for the first time since I started calculating individual AWAR this year, Trey Burke slipped to the #2 spot. Nate Wolters of South Dakota State (averaged 22.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.8 assists for the Summit League champions). The two of them will meet in the opening game.

Wolters has put up big numbers against some of tougher teams SD State has played. He put up 30 on 10 of 15 shooting in a 3 point loss to Alabama; he had 28 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists in a 5 point win over New Mexico; in a bracket buster game against Murray State he had 18 points on 7 of 10 shooting.

Granted it was against IPFW and Oakland, but he put up 89 points in those two games combined on 29 of 48 shooting; they needed every bit of his 53 points against IPFW (17 of 28 from the field including 9 of 14 from three) as he scored 53 of their 80 points in an 80-74 win.

Wolters might be guarding Burke quite a bit....he certainly can't match Burke's speed, but he does have 4 inches on him. The Jackrabbits start 4 players from 6'4" to 6'8".
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Mar 18 2013, 09:00 PM Post #20
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
Actual seed v. Ken Pom seed v. AWAR

Comparison of seeds given to teams followed by KenPom seed power rating of the teams that are in followed by AWAR seed rating of the teams that are in.
actual seed/KenPom/AWAR
Indiana: 1 1 1
Gonzaga: 1 1 1
Louisville: 1 1 1
Kansas: 1 2 2
Duke: 2 2 2
Georgetown: 2 2 3
Ohio State: 2 3 3
Miami: 2 4 6
Florida: 3 1 1
Michigan State: 3 3 2
New Mexico: 3 5 5
Marquette: 3 7 5
Michigan: 4 3 3
Syracuse: 4 4 3
Kansas State 4 7 7
St.Louis 4 4 10
Wisconsin 5 3 4
UNLV 5 9 5
Oklahoma State 5 5 9
VCU 5 6 9
Arizona 6 5 6
UCLA 6 10 8
Memphis 6 9 7
Butler 6 12 11
Creighton 7 4 2
Notre Dame 7 8 4
San Diego State 7 7 8
Illinois 7 10 14
Pittsburgh 8 2 2
Colorado State 8 6 5
NC State 8 9 6
North Carolina 8 7 7
Missouri 9 5 6
Wichita State 9 8 9
Villanova 9 11 11
Temple 9 13 13
Iowa State 10 9 8
Cincinnati 10 10 11
Oklahoma 10 11 12
Colorado 10 11 12
Minnesota 11 6 4
St.Mary's 11 11 8
Belmont 11 8 9
Middle Tenn 11 13 10
Bucknell 12 12 10
California 12 11 12
Akron 12 12 11
Oregon 12 8 12
Ole Miss 12 8 12
Boise State 13 11 10
South Dakota State 13 14 14
New Mexico State 13 13 14
Montana 13 15 15
LaSalle 13 12 13
Valparaiso 14 13 12
Davidson 14 13 13
Harvard 14 14 13
Northwestern St 14 15 15
Iona 15 14 13
Pacific 15 14 14
Florida Gulf Coast 15 15 16
Albany 16 16 15
Southern 16 16 16
W.Kentucky 16 16 16
LIU-Brooklyn 16 16 16
James Madison 16 16 16
Liberty 16 16 16
NC A&T 16 16 16
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Mar 18 2013, 09:07 PM Post #21
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
Teams that KenPom feels were seeded incorrectly by two or more spots:

underseeded:
Florida (3, should be 1)
Wisconsin (5, should be 3)
Creighton (7, should be 4)
Pittsburgh (8, should be 2)
Colorado State (8, should be 6)
Missouri (9, should be 5)
Minnesota (11, should be 6)
St.Mary's (11, should be 6)
Middle Tenn (11, should be 8)
Ole Miss (12, should be 8)
Boise State (13, should be 11)

overseeded
Miami (2, should be 4)
New Mexico (3, should be 5)
Marquette (3, should be 7)
Kansas State (4, should be 7)
UNLV (5, should be 9)
UCLA (6, should be 10)
Memphis (6, should be 9)
Butler (6, should be 12)
Illinois (7, should be 10)
Villanova (9, should be 11)
Temple (9, should be 13)
Bucknell (11, should be 13)

Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
mongo Mar 18 2013, 09:08 PM Post #22
Coach
Posts:
11,595
Group:
Members
Member
#160
Joined:
February 12, 2008
Creightons a 2 for awar?
Posted Image

"Son, if you really want something in this life you have to work hard for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers."
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Mar 18 2013, 09:13 PM Post #23
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
AWAR Over and underseeded

Underseeded:
Florida (3, should be 1)
Creighton (7, should be 2)
Notre Dame (7, should be 4)
Pittsburgh (8, should be 2)
Colorado State (8, should be 5)
NC State (8, should be 6)
Missouri (9, should be 6)
Iowa State (10, should be 8)
Minnesota (11, should be 4)
St.Mary's (11, should be 7)
Belmont (11, should be 8)
Middle Tenn (11, should be 9)
California (12, should be 10)
Boise State (13, should be 10)
Valparaiso (14, should be 12)
Iona (15, should be 13)

Overseeded
Ohio State (2, should be 4)
Miami (2, should be 6)
New Mexico (3, should be 5)
Kansas State (4, should be 7)
St.Louis (4, should be 10)
Oklahoma State (5, should be 9)
VCU (5, should be 9)
UCLA (6, should be 8)
Butler (6, should be 11)
Illinois (7, should be 14)
Temple (9, should be 13)
Oklahoma (10, should be 12)
Colorado (10, should be 12)
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Mar 18 2013, 09:28 PM Post #24
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
mongo
Mar 18 2013, 09:08 PM
Creightons a 2 for awar?
And a 4 in KenPom. Both systems really like Creighton. The computer ratings love Creighton....they are 6th overall in AWAR, 15th in KenPom, and 17th in Sagarin.

Part of their lure is the uncommon stat combination of leading division one in both field goal percentage (52%) AND three point field goal percentage (42%). They also shot 75% from the line.

I don't honestly believe that Creighton is the sixth best team in the nation....however, I do think they are still underrated in terms of seeding. Right now they most definitely are not a top ten team....they finished 10-6 after a 17-1 start....but I think they underseeded as a 7, IMO. The NCAA has Illinois and Creighton both as 7 seeds....I simply can't see that.
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Mar 19 2013, 07:16 PM Post #25
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
AWAR exact score predictions

Play in games:
Long Island 76, James Madison 74
St.Mary's 70, Middle Tenn 68
Liberty 63, NC A&T 62
LaSalle 72, Boise State 72 (note: LaSalle is a 0.4 point favorite)

Round 1:
East
1 Indiana 96, 16 LIU 69
2 Miami 70, 15 Pacific 61
3 Marquette 75, 14 Davidson 65
4 Syracuse 75, 13 Montana 57
5 UNLV 70, 12 California 67
11 Bucknell 65, 6 Butler 65 (Bucknell is a 0.3 point favorite
10 Colorado 64, 7 Illinois 61
8 NC State 83, 9 Temmple 74

Midwest
1 Louisville 76, 16 NC A&T 44
2 Duke 79, 15 Albany 57
3 Michigan St 75, 14 Valparaiso 57
4 St.Louis 63, 13 New Mexico St 60
5 Oklahoma St 71, 12 Oregon 65
11 St Mary's 76, 6 Memphis 76 (St.Mary's +0.2)
7 Creighton 73, 10 Cincinnati 62
8 Colorado St 73, 9 Missouri 72

South:
1 Kansas 82, 16 W.Kentucky 61
2 Georgetown 72, 15 Florida GC 54
3 Florida 85, 14 Northwestern St 58
4 Michigan 81, 13 South Dakota St 67
5 VCU 72, 12 Akron 71
11 Minnesota 73, 6 UCLA 70
7 San Diego St 69, 10 Oklahoma 65
8 North Carolina 75, 9 Villanova 69

West
1 Gonzaga 79, 16 Southern 52
2 Ohio State 81, 15 Iona 68
3 New Mexico 71, 14 Harvard 60
4 Kansas State 72, 13 LaSalle 65
5 Wisconsin 71, 12 Ole Miss 63
6 Arizona 74, 11 Belmont 72
7 Notre Dame 77, 10 Iowa State 73
8 Pittsburgh 68, 9 Wichita State 59
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
sirbrianwilson Mar 19 2013, 11:25 PM Post #26
Member Avatar
Stemlerite
Posts:
22,404
Group:
Admin
Member
#1
Joined:
February 4, 2008
I can not BELIEVE mtsu lost their play-in game. wow.

br
Posted Image
Posted Image
Online Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Mar 20 2013, 06:40 AM Post #27
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
sirbrianwilson
Mar 19 2013, 11:25 PM
I can not BELIEVE mtsu lost their play-in game. wow.

br
Bet that really busted your bracket. You had them going to at least the elite eight, right?
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
sirbrianwilson Mar 20 2013, 01:40 PM Post #28
Member Avatar
Stemlerite
Posts:
22,404
Group:
Admin
Member
#1
Joined:
February 4, 2008
brumdog44
Mar 20 2013, 06:40 AM
sirbrianwilson
Mar 19 2013, 11:25 PM
I can not BELIEVE mtsu lost their play-in game. wow.

br
Bet that really busted your bracket. You had them going to at least the elite eight, right?
ha...i had them in the round of 32, although, that pick still may be safe if SMU pulls out a miracle.

MTSU had a pretty decent season. I think they even deserved more than a play-in.

br
Posted Image
Posted Image
Online Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
brumdog44 Mar 20 2013, 05:30 PM Post #29
Member Avatar
The guy picked last in gym class
Posts:
43,823
Group:
Members
Member
#181
Joined:
February 20, 2008
sirbrianwilson
Mar 20 2013, 01:40 PM
brumdog44
Mar 20 2013, 06:40 AM
sirbrianwilson
Mar 19 2013, 11:25 PM
I can not BELIEVE mtsu lost their play-in game. wow.

br
Bet that really busted your bracket. You had them going to at least the elite eight, right?
ha...i had them in the round of 32, although, that pick still may be safe if SMU pulls out a miracle.

MTSU had a pretty decent season. I think they even deserved more than a play-in.

br
AWAR ranked them as the 33rd best at large team. The 34th through 37th at large teams play in play in games. AWAR had them on the 11 seed line, but not in a play in game.

Other AWAR items:

The most overrated conference -- by far -- is the Atlantic 10.

AWAR had the Atlantic 10 deserving of only three teams -- VCU (41st overall, deserves an 11 seed), St.Louis (auto bid, 44th overall, deserves an 11 seed), and the last at large team, Butler (48th overall, deserving 12th seed in a play in game).

LaSalle and Temple -- which made it in the actual tourney -- are rated by AWAR to be the 8th and 9th teams below the last at large bid.

AWAR also doesn't believe that the West bracket is the weakest one. It says that Indiana's eastern bracket is the weakest -- but it does buy into the notion that the path Indiana has to the elite eight is not easy. If IU has to go through the 8th seed NC State and 4th seed Syracuse, AWAR believes they will be playing the 5th best team and 2nd best team in the East instead of the 8th and 4th.
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
TRoss54 Mar 20 2013, 10:50 PM Post #30
Member Avatar
All-Star
Posts:
1,271
Group:
Members
Member
#7
Joined:
February 4, 2008
I noticed that many of the overseeded teams are in the east region, good news for us.
Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
« Previous Topic · Hoosier Sports · Next Topic »
Add Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2

Track Topic · E-mail Topic Time: 7:50 PM Jul 10
Hosted for free by ZetaBoards · Privacy Policy