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Interesting Stat
Tweet Topic Started: Mar 20 2013, 09:35 AM (128 Views)
tkeena33 Mar 20 2013, 09:35 AM Post #1
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Here is an interesting stat I saw today. I think it's a misconception that IU struggles against physical teams (maybe not completely, but I don't think it's a huge problem) and I think the pace of play is the most important factor. I think IU doesn't value the ball enough in games against teams who slow down the game, stop the fast break, and limit possessions, which is why Wisconsin is our kryptonite. Anyway, here is the stat.

IU is 24-2 in games with 66+ possessions (Butler & Minny were 2 losses)
IU is 3-4 in games with < 66 possessions
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obatskii Mar 20 2013, 10:16 AM Post #2
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Nice stat, indeed.
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"They say it takes a village to raise a family. Well, it took a nation to rebuild a program. THANK YOU HOOSIER NATION!" -Tom Crean

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HoosierLars Mar 20 2013, 12:47 PM Post #3
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I think the Boilers could have kept it close if we got rid of that stupid shot clock and five second rule...
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dreachon Mar 20 2013, 01:07 PM Post #4
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tkeena33
Mar 20 2013, 09:35 AM
Here is an interesting stat I saw today. I think it's a misconception that IU struggles against physical teams (maybe not completely, but I don't think it's a huge problem) and I think the pace of play is the most important factor. I think IU doesn't value the ball enough in games against teams who slow down the game, stop the fast break, and limit possessions, which is why Wisconsin is our kryptonite. Anyway, here is the stat.

IU is 24-2 in games with 66+ possessions (Butler & Minny were 2 losses)
IU is 3-4 in games with < 66 possessions
I had a sneaky feeling this was true and that's what motivated me to post the Kenpom Tempo numbers of the teams we lost to and the teams in our bracket. I'd definitely like to stay away from Miami and Bucknell.
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Jazen Mar 20 2013, 01:23 PM Post #5
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HoosierLars
Mar 20 2013, 12:47 PM
I think the Boilers could have kept it close if we got rid of that stupid shot clock and five second rule...
Was watching a bit of the '76 and '81 Championship games yesterday on BTN Classics, and truly forgot how the games were actually played without a shot clock. Teams would hold the ball for 5 minutes at a time, or try to, in certain situations.

Comparing to today's game, I can't believe I even sat through it.
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sirbrianwilson Mar 20 2013, 01:25 PM Post #6
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Every single team is going to try and slow us down during the tourney. I hope we're ready for it.

br
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Jazen Mar 20 2013, 01:29 PM Post #7
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sirbrianwilson
Mar 20 2013, 01:25 PM
Every single team is going to try and slow us down during the tourney. I hope we're ready for it.

br
Agreed, and Crean's motto from the gate has been "we run, this is what we do". Hopefully he's readjusted the drawing board for team's that want to play a Wisconsin pace.

Surely to God he realizes at least now that potentially being one dimensional, although very good at it, is relatively easy to scout.
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HoosierLars Mar 20 2013, 01:31 PM Post #8
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Jazen
Mar 20 2013, 01:23 PM
HoosierLars
Mar 20 2013, 12:47 PM
I think the Boilers could have kept it close if we got rid of that stupid shot clock and five second rule...
Was watching a bit of the '76 and '81 Championship games yesterday on BTN Classics, and truly forgot how the games were actually played without a shot clock. Teams would hold the ball for 5 minutes at a time, or try to, in certain situations.

Comparing to today's game, I can't believe I even sat through it.
Seriously, it was almost as boring as watching paint dry or soccer... Just kidding, Mrs J! (about the paint) :P
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Jazen Mar 20 2013, 01:42 PM Post #9
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HoosierLars
Mar 20 2013, 01:31 PM
Jazen
Mar 20 2013, 01:23 PM
HoosierLars
Mar 20 2013, 12:47 PM
I think the Boilers could have kept it close if we got rid of that stupid shot clock and five second rule...
Was watching a bit of the '76 and '81 Championship games yesterday on BTN Classics, and truly forgot how the games were actually played without a shot clock. Teams would hold the ball for 5 minutes at a time, or try to, in certain situations.

Comparing to today's game, I can't believe I even sat through it.
Seriously, it was almost as boring as watching paint dry or soccer... Just kidding, Mrs J! (about the paint) :P
Watching soccer is not boring in my house when the in-laws are here. They watch soccer, I watch them. Truly bizarre, at least to me, how unglued they get when the ball gets in the vicinity (oh, 40 yards or so) of the goal.

Of course, there's beer involved for me, but nothing will wipe the :blink: look from my face.
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brumdog44 Mar 20 2013, 04:04 PM Post #10
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sirbrianwilson
Mar 20 2013, 01:25 PM
Every single team is going to try and slow us down during the tourney. I hope we're ready for it.

br
If Long Island plays us, they will not. They were 29th in pace and -- simply put -- they don't have the ball handlers to try to slow it down.

In terms of the 66 possessions, I don't know where that stat came from but it is interesting. However, KenPom does a pace rating on every game.....don't know how he figures, am about to read it up...but he has our two lowest paced games as Nebraska and Northwestern, both of which we won. He does have five of our six losses being in the bottom nine of pace with the lone one outside of the nine being Butler.

However, I don't think NC State will want to slow it down either....they won eight of their nine fastest paced games while losing five of the lowest ten.

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dreachon Mar 20 2013, 05:27 PM Post #11
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I just saw a video on ESPN that talked about dooms high ranked teams.

The first was poor offensive rebounding. We're #6 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage.
The second was that teams who rely on a lot of free throws to get their points often get upset in the tourney. We're #2/3 in the country in FTs taken/made per game.

I wonder which statistic has a bigger impact?
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brumdog44 Mar 20 2013, 05:49 PM Post #12
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dreachon
Mar 20 2013, 05:27 PM
I just saw a video on ESPN that talked about dooms high ranked teams.

The first was poor offensive rebounding. We're #6 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage.
The second was that teams who rely on a lot of free throws to get their points often get upset in the tourney. We're #2/3 in the country in FTs taken/made per game.

I wonder which statistic has a bigger impact?
Seth Davis cited KenPom on the radio and disagreed with the notion that there are thirty teams that could win the tournament. He said that every winner of the NCAA tourney since KenPom had run stats had finished the season in the top twenty in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.

Since 2003, the national champions ratings in offensive and defensive efficiency:


2003: Syracuse off:11 def:19
2004: Connecticut off:4 def:5
2005: North Carolina off:1 def:5
2006: Florida off:2 def:5
2007: Florida off:1 def:12
2008: Kansas off:2 def:1
2009: North Carolina off:1 def:16
2010: Duke off:1 def:4
2011: Connecticut off:16 def:14
2012: Kentucky off:2 def:9

If that pattern follows, the national champion will come from this group of six:
Indiana off:1 def:19
Gonzaga off:3 def:12
Florida off:5 def:2
Pittsburgh off:9 def:17
Ohio State off:14 def:6
Louisville off:15 def:1

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dedicatedIUfan Mar 20 2013, 09:15 PM Post #13
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Jazen
Mar 20 2013, 01:29 PM
sirbrianwilson
Mar 20 2013, 01:25 PM
Every single team is going to try and slow us down during the tourney. I hope we're ready for it.

br
Agreed, and Crean's motto from the gate has been "we run, this is what we do". Hopefully he's readjusted the drawing board for team's that want to play a Wisconsin pace.

Surely to God he realizes at least now that potentially being one dimensional, although very good at it, is relatively easy to scout.
That is why he is only an decent coach and not a great coach. He is a great recruiter but not a good X's and O's coach and that is why his team's have trouble in slower paced games. The faster pace tends to hide coaching flaws, lack of fundamentals, and lack of execution.
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sirbrianwilson Mar 20 2013, 09:28 PM Post #14
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Mar 20 2013, 09:15 PM
Jazen
Mar 20 2013, 01:29 PM
sirbrianwilson
Mar 20 2013, 01:25 PM
Every single team is going to try and slow us down during the tourney. I hope we're ready for it.

br
Agreed, and Crean's motto from the gate has been "we run, this is what we do". Hopefully he's readjusted the drawing board for team's that want to play a Wisconsin pace.

Surely to God he realizes at least now that potentially being one dimensional, although very good at it, is relatively easy to scout.
That is why he is only an decent coach and not a great coach. He is a great recruiter but not a good X's and O's coach and that is why his team's have trouble in slower paced games. The faster pace tends to hide coaching flaws, lack of fundamentals, and lack of execution.
Yet, there isn't a single coach in all of NCAA that I'd rather have at IU. He is a PERFECT fit.

br
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brumdog44 Mar 20 2013, 10:44 PM Post #15
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Mar 20 2013, 09:15 PM
Jazen
Mar 20 2013, 01:29 PM
sirbrianwilson
Mar 20 2013, 01:25 PM
Every single team is going to try and slow us down during the tourney. I hope we're ready for it.

br
Agreed, and Crean's motto from the gate has been "we run, this is what we do". Hopefully he's readjusted the drawing board for team's that want to play a Wisconsin pace.

Surely to God he realizes at least now that potentially being one dimensional, although very good at it, is relatively easy to scout.
That is why he is only an decent coach and not a great coach. He is a great recruiter but not a good X's and O's coach and that is why his team's have trouble in slower paced games. The faster pace tends to hide coaching flaws, lack of fundamentals, and lack of execution.
Good coaches recognize the strength and weaknesses of their teams and play that style of ball.
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