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New warming data
Tweet Topic Started: Jul 23 2013, 06:11 AM (230 Views)
IUCOLTFAN Jul 23 2013, 06:11 AM Post #1
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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/has-global-warming-stopped-no--its-just-on-pause-insist-scientists-and-its-down-to-the-oceans-8726893.html


Professor Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said that a pause in the rate of increase in global temperatures lasting this long is unusual but not exceptional, with similar pauses of about 10 years expected on average twice every century.

The most likely explanation for the current pause is that excess heat trapped by carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is being transferred from the atmosphere to the oceans where it is being transported down to deeper layers that cannot be monitored by satellites, Professor Belcher said.

“It looks like the Earth is continuing to accumulate energy but it looks like it is being re-arranged and hidden from view,” he said.

However, measurements from hundreds of ocean floats released over the last decade, which descend and drift to depths of up to 2,000 metres, show that huge amounts of heat from the sea surface is now being transferred to the deep ocean, with unknown consequences for the environment, the scientists said.

“In summary, observations of ocean heat content and of sea-level rise suggest that the Earth system has continued to absorb heat energy over the past 15 years, and that this additional heat has been absorbed in the ocean,” says the Met Office report.

The pause, however, is unlikely to change the predictions over the future course of global warming. Temperature increases expected by 2015 will only be delayed by a further five or ten years, the scientists said. Average surface temperatures are still on course to increase by 2C this century, with further rises expected by the end of the century if nothing is done to curb carbon dioxide emissions, they said.


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dreachon Jul 23 2013, 06:40 AM Post #2
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2 degrees Celsius may not sound like a lot, but it can be a huge amount.

When Mount Tambora erupted in 1815, the ash from the volcano circled the world and helped block the sun. It decreased the average world temp by .5C the next year. That year, in addition to widespread famine due to lost crops from freezing temps, it snowed in New York...in the middle of June. It was dubbed "The Year Without a Summer". Some crazy shit.
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brumdog44 Jul 23 2013, 08:44 AM Post #3
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I'm not sure if the intent of the OP was to say that global warming was being overstated (which is something that I agree with....it has benn overstated IMO, but is very real......but as Dreach said, 2 Celcius degrees in 100 years is a huge number. Much more than I would have guessed.
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IUCOLTFAN Jul 23 2013, 01:11 PM Post #4
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Professor Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said that a pause in the rate of increase in global temperatures lasting this long is unusual but not exceptional, with similar pauses of about 10 years expected on average twice every century.


Doesn't this paragraph kind of prove the point that humans are not causing this and that it is a naturally occurring thing? It's not that I don't believe that the earth is constantly going thru changes and that we couldn't clean up our act a little, it's just the idea that there is so much money involved on both sides of "climate science" that it appears we are just making it up as we go along. Just my opinion.
Edited by IUCOLTFAN, Jul 23 2013, 01:14 PM.
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brumdog44 Jul 23 2013, 01:20 PM Post #5
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IUCOLTFAN
Jul 23 2013, 01:11 PM
Professor Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said that a pause in the rate of increase in global temperatures lasting this long is unusual but not exceptional, with similar pauses of about 10 years expected on average twice every century.


Doesn't this paragraph kind of prove the point that humans are not causing this and that it is a naturally occurring thing?
No. Not sure where you are drawing that conclusion from.
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IUCOLTFAN Jul 23 2013, 01:22 PM Post #6
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brumdog44
Jul 23 2013, 01:20 PM
IUCOLTFAN
Jul 23 2013, 01:11 PM
Professor Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said that a pause in the rate of increase in global temperatures lasting this long is unusual but not exceptional, with similar pauses of about 10 years expected on average twice every century.


Doesn't this paragraph kind of prove the point that humans are not causing this and that it is a naturally occurring thing?
No. Not sure where you are drawing that conclusion from.
When did we start mass polluting the planet?
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brumdog44 Jul 23 2013, 06:30 PM Post #7
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IUCOLTFAN
Jul 23 2013, 01:22 PM
brumdog44
Jul 23 2013, 01:20 PM
IUCOLTFAN
Jul 23 2013, 01:11 PM
Professor Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said that a pause in the rate of increase in global temperatures lasting this long is unusual but not exceptional, with similar pauses of about 10 years expected on average twice every century.


Doesn't this paragraph kind of prove the point that humans are not causing this and that it is a naturally occurring thing?
No. Not sure where you are drawing that conclusion from.
When did we start mass polluting the planet?
Your conclusion makes no sense regardless. Assuming global warming was completely man made, would you expect there to be some linear progression? You point to an article that says there is a 2 degree change in the past 100 years and are surprised that there were a couple of decades in there in which there wasn't a discernible change?

Global warming isn't a freight train heading downhill.

Edited by brumdog44, Jul 23 2013, 06:31 PM.
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IUCOLTFAN Jul 23 2013, 06:43 PM Post #8
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brumdog44
Jul 23 2013, 06:30 PM
IUCOLTFAN
Jul 23 2013, 01:22 PM
brumdog44
Jul 23 2013, 01:20 PM
IUCOLTFAN
Jul 23 2013, 01:11 PM
Professor Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said that a pause in the rate of increase in global temperatures lasting this long is unusual but not exceptional, with similar pauses of about 10 years expected on average twice every century.


Doesn't this paragraph kind of prove the point that humans are not causing this and that it is a naturally occurring thing?
No. Not sure where you are drawing that conclusion from.
When did we start mass polluting the planet?
Your conclusion makes no sense regardless. Assuming global warming was completely man made, would you expect there to be some linear progression? You point to an article that says there is a 2 degree change in the past 100 years and are surprised that there were a couple of decades in there in which there wasn't a discernible change?

Global warming isn't a freight train heading downhill.

No that's not what I'm surprised about.
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brumdog44 Jul 23 2013, 07:49 PM Post #9
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IUCOLTFAN
Jul 23 2013, 06:43 PM
brumdog44
Jul 23 2013, 06:30 PM
IUCOLTFAN
Jul 23 2013, 01:22 PM
brumdog44
Jul 23 2013, 01:20 PM
IUCOLTFAN
Jul 23 2013, 01:11 PM
Professor Stephen Belcher, head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said that a pause in the rate of increase in global temperatures lasting this long is unusual but not exceptional, with similar pauses of about 10 years expected on average twice every century.


Doesn't this paragraph kind of prove the point that humans are not causing this and that it is a naturally occurring thing?
No. Not sure where you are drawing that conclusion from.
When did we start mass polluting the planet?
Your conclusion makes no sense regardless. Assuming global warming was completely man made, would you expect there to be some linear progression? You point to an article that says there is a 2 degree change in the past 100 years and are surprised that there were a couple of decades in there in which there wasn't a discernible change?

Global warming isn't a freight train heading downhill.

No that's not what I'm surprised about.
Well, don't beat around the bush....what surprises you about it?

As I have said from the beginning, I believe the case for global warming has been overstated....however, it is an issue that can not go unaddressed. The exact affects of pollution can be argued, but the point of view that pollution has no affect is not a defensible one IMO.
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brumdog44 Jul 23 2013, 07:53 PM Post #10
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Here is a link from the same paper you cited:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/carbon-dioxide-in-atmosphere-at-highest-level-for-5-million-years-8611673.html

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Mr Gray Jul 24 2013, 08:36 AM Post #11
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If global warming is man made, don't you think it will naturally subside when it's effects start to actually impact the resources that sustain and allow our species to continue to multiply, thus begin a trend back in the other direction? I'm not saying that we should "wait until people start to die", because this is such a long term concept, that that simply isn't how it works. As temps increase and impact the natural resources that sustain us, they become more scarce (slightly and over a long period of time), which creates a natural decline in our rate of reproduction.
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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brumdog44 Jul 24 2013, 10:38 AM Post #12
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Anyway, as you said this is an incredibly long term concept. We don't know exactly what the effects will be but I certainly don't believe that it is to be considered a 'population control' measure.
Edited by brumdog44, Jul 24 2013, 10:47 AM.
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IUCOLTFAN Jul 24 2013, 10:58 AM Post #13
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There is no way to know what the effects will be when you don't really know what the problem is to begin with
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brumdog44 Jul 24 2013, 01:42 PM Post #14
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IUCOLTFAN
Jul 24 2013, 10:58 AM
There is no way to know what the effects will be when you don't really know what the problem is to begin with
Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to begin with.

Are you suggesting that there are no inheriant problems with high levels of air pollution?
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Mr Gray Jul 24 2013, 02:25 PM Post #15
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Jul 24 2013, 10:38 AM
Anyway, as you said this is an incredibly long term concept. We don't know exactly what the effects will be but I certainly don't believe that it is to be considered a 'population control' measure.
I'm not saying to use it as population control...I'm just saying that is how it works when resources are over-consumed or become scarce for another reason related to the growth of population....which would certainly apply to carbon dioxide disbursement.
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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