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| Trump's hypocrisy | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Feb 26 2016, 10:17 AM (101 Views) | |
| HoosierLars | Feb 26 2016, 10:17 AM Post #1 |
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3 in a row
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On this board we've seen that hypocrisy tends to really upset people--especially when it's someone you already don't like. Last night Trump was slammed by Rubio and Cruz for being hypocritical regarding immigration. I think the punches landed strongly, but the question is whether Trump supporters will care. IMHO, there was enough blood drawn to cause Trump problems in the general, although Hillary's unfavorable numbers are so high it's still a crap shoot who would win. |
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| mongo | Feb 26 2016, 10:59 AM Post #2 |
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Coach
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Trump would never win a general election. I'm wondering if last night is the beginning of the end for the Donald. |
![]() "Son, if you really want something in this life you have to work hard for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers." | |
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| sirbrianwilson | Feb 26 2016, 11:14 AM Post #3 |
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Stemlerite
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I see trump supporters as a pretty static thing. It's about the undecideds right now for the primaries, not swaying supporters to join another team... br |
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| brumdog44 | Feb 26 2016, 01:50 PM Post #4 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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I don't disagree that he would be a huge underdog in a general election (although I never say never). As the last presidential elections have shown (and Silver and 538 have pointed out) the minority vote is highly underrepresented in the general election polls. There are basically three lanes for republican voters right now....the conservative (who break for Rubio), the more conservative (who break for Cruz), and the crazy (Trump). As long as Rubio and Cruz both remain in the race -- which obviously is going to be past Super Tuesday -- the longer Cruz and Rubio are splitting similar voters. It's no secret the the general election polls are showing the republican with the best chance in the national election (and he would be favored to win) is Rubio. If Cruz dropped out today, I think Rubio would beat Trump in the primary. If Rubio were to drop out, I think Cruz beats Trump. But neither scenario is going to happen. And it's not unlikely that Rubio could get through Super Tuesday without having won a single state. He's going to be competitive in almost all of them, but it's hard to win the primary without winning before the first week of March. And Carson and Kasich are simply hurting the republican party by staying in. There is ZERO path to election for them, only pulling away voters who likely wouldn't shift to Trump anyway. Yes, Trump had a horrible debate yesterday. Probably his worst one. But his backers aren't known for their power of observation. It probably only strengthened the resolve of those who won't vote for him. His ceiling has to raise to win the national election. |
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| brumdog44 | Feb 26 2016, 01:56 PM Post #5 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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Hillary's unfavorable numbers are high. But within their own parties and independents, Trumps unfavorable numbers are even higher. I wouldn't call it a toss up at this point as to who would win...TONS will happen between now and November, but right now head to head matchups have Clinton about 3% higher than Trump. And Trump has angered the Latino vote and my suspicion is that you would see an irregularly high turnout of Latinos that isn't getting represented in public polling (I think Silver would agree). It's very telling that Trump is up 14% over any other republican nationally but Cruz currently is up 1% against Clinton head to head and Rubio is up 6%. IMO, Clinton beats Trump. Clinton and Cruz are a toss up. Rubio destroys Clinton. |
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| rkl15 | Feb 26 2016, 04:35 PM Post #6 |
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All-Star
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I fear that those who "don't follow politics" and are just fed up with the system will show up in droves (for the first time in their lives) and vote for Trump. There is a no-win election if the choices are Clinton-Trump. I'm glad to see Trump take a beating last night, hopefully it is the beginning of the end for him! |
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| brumdog44 | Feb 26 2016, 11:00 PM Post #7 |
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The guy picked last in gym class
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In the national election, just as many "don't follow politics" people will show up to vote against him. Let's face it, the people he has been insulting aren't the typical republican base. The most important group and kinetic group is the hispanic vote. In the last six elections, the Republicans have lost the national election four times. They've only won the hispanic vote once (2004), which was one of their two victories. And in 2000, Bush at least was competitive for the hispanic vote. Estimates show that the republican candidate needs a MINIMUM of 40% of the hispanic vote to win. And BY FAR, Trump is the least popular candidate for hispanics. One poll had the current vote of a Clinton/Trump matchup as 73% for Clinton, 16% for Trump....with 8 in ten Latinos having an unfavorable opinion of Trump. The Latino vote is the fastest growing segment in the United States. The republican party is going to have to catch up with that fact if they want to win presidencies.....the fact that the candidate they could elect (Trump) isn't likely to beat a very poor democratic candidate says a lot. Rubio easily would exceed the 40% mark. He wins the national. But he's stuck in third behind people who want to preach to the base. |
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| HoosierLars | Feb 27 2016, 08:19 PM Post #8 |
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3 in a row
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I would tend to agree with your analysis if Trump wasn't routinely defying predictions and conventional wisdom. Super Tuesday may show if Trump is wearing thin on voters. If he wins most of these races and gets over 50% somewhere, he will be difficult to beat, IMO. I can see why you might be confident Hillary can beat him, but I think it will be a lot closer than the experts think. |
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| boilergrad01 | Feb 27 2016, 11:21 PM Post #9 |
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Working on the last 5
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Trump is a disaster. The dems take the Senate and Rep lose state chambers if Trump is the nominee. Could lose a few Gov races also. Either way we are a divided country and no one is running that can make America whole again. The issues that needs to be addressed are spending, Terror, entitlements. The rest is all eye wash. |
| Nothing beats an Astronaut | |
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| sirbrianwilson | Feb 28 2016, 02:35 AM Post #10 |
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Stemlerite
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i agree that none of the candidates seem to possess the ability to pull this country together. but saying that the issues that need to be addressed are spending, terror, and entitlements, is as a divisive statement as any of these candidates are this election cycle.... br |
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| HoosierLars | Feb 28 2016, 10:37 AM Post #11 |
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3 in a row
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I just clicked on Hillary's banner add a few times to burn some of her cash. |
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