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Big Ten: different team ratings
Tweet Topic Started: Feb 27 2016, 12:43 PM (150 Views)
brumdog44 Feb 27 2016, 12:43 PM Post #1
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Ratings for the teams that seem to be competing for spots in the tournament (Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan):

Kenpom:
Michigan State: 1
Iowa 13
Indiana 15
Purdue 17
Maryland 21
Wisconsin 31
Michigan 44
Ohio State 70

Sagarin:
Michigan State 1
Indiana 12
Purdue 15
Iowa 16
Maryland 17
Michigan 34
Wisconsin 35
Ohio State63

BPI:
Michigan State 6
Iowa 15
Purdue 16
Maryland 18
Indiana 19
Wisconsin 34
Michigan 48
Ohio State 62

RPI:
Maryland 10
Michigan State 15
Iowa 20
Purdue 21
Indiana 28
Wisconsin 37
Michigan 52
Ohio State 77

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brumdog44 Feb 27 2016, 02:44 PM Post #2
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Statfox (not ranking of teams, but a power rating, the higher the better -- would rate recent play higher as it is used for pointspreads)
Michigan State 96
Indiana 90
Iowa 87
Purdue 87
Wisconsin 87
Maryland 85
Michigan 83
Ohio State 81

Joe Lunardi project NCAA seeds
Michigan State 2
Iowa 3
Maryland 3
Indiana 5
Purdue 5
Wisconsin 7
Michigan 9
Ohio State out (not in first 8 out either)

Sonny Moore power ratings (emphasizes recent play more)
Michigan State 1
Indiana 11
Purdue 15
Iowa 18
Wisconsin 20
Maryland 21
Michigan 39
Ohio State 58

NCAA bracket project (through Feb 25) -- tracks 94 bracket makers predictions.
Michigan State: average seed 2.3. Best seed 1, worst seed 4. In all 94 brackets.
Iowa: average seed 3.05. Best seed 2, worst seed 5. In all 94 brackets.
Maryland: average seed 3.26. Best seed 2, worst seed 5. In all 94 brackets.
Purdue: average seed 5.54. Best seed 4, worst seed 8 (that has changed to 7 recently). In all 94 brackets.
Indiana: average seed 5.67. Best seed 4, worst seed 10 (LOL....the seed has changed to a 7 on that site recently). In all 94 brackets.
Wisconsin: average seed 8.59. Best seed 6, one bracket has them out of tournament.
Michigan: average seed 10.24. Best seed 8. In 88 of the 94 brackets.
Ohio State: In only one bracket as an 11 seed.
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mongo Feb 27 2016, 02:51 PM Post #3
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Really don't understand the love Iowa is still getting
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"Son, if you really want something in this life you have to work hard for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers."
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panchen_lama Feb 27 2016, 03:52 PM Post #4
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mongo
Feb 27 2016, 02:51 PM
Really don't understand the love Iowa is still getting
they're still getting huge credit for beating a valentine-less MSU and MSU in what i think was valentine's first game back. high quality wins for sure, but being weighted a bit too highly. and they probably "get points" for playing dayton, ND and ISU...even though they lost to all of them. and then there's the sweep of the school up north.

they're a decent team and will be favored on tuesday, but i think you're right in that they've been overrated for a while a now.
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BoilerVision Feb 27 2016, 04:59 PM Post #5
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mongo
Feb 27 2016, 02:51 PM
Really don't understand the love Iowa is still getting
They're 4-0 against MSU and Purdue
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mongo Feb 27 2016, 05:25 PM Post #6
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BoilerVision
Feb 27 2016, 04:59 PM
mongo
Feb 27 2016, 02:51 PM
Really don't understand the love Iowa is still getting
They're 4-0 against MSU and Purdue
See above post.
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mongo Feb 27 2016, 05:41 PM Post #7
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they're 1-3 their last 4 games with the only win barely beating Minnesota at home
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dçamden03 Feb 27 2016, 06:20 PM Post #8
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mongo
Feb 27 2016, 05:41 PM
they're 1-3 their last 4 games with the only win barely beating Minnesota at home
They've struggled of late but their resume is pretty solid. And they got the shaft with their league schedule having to go to Purdue Indiana and MSU Maryland.

The unbalanced schedule has really made these regular season league titles a bit watered down.
“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."

"I’d take him to the ends of the earth — I’d want him playing for me.” - Bo Ryan on Robbie Hummel

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BoilerVision Feb 27 2016, 06:23 PM Post #9
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mongo
Feb 27 2016, 05:25 PM
BoilerVision
Feb 27 2016, 04:59 PM
mongo
Feb 27 2016, 02:51 PM
Really don't understand the love Iowa is still getting
They're 4-0 against MSU and Purdue
See above post.
I know about the Valentine situation in those games. But they won by double-digits in the first meeting, and a win in E. Lansing (the second meeting) is always a huge resume-booster regardless of whether it was Valentine's first game back or not.

1-3 is a little bit of a slump and they'd be even higher if not for that. If they lose at home vs. IU this Tues, the rankings will even out a bit more.
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dçamden03 Feb 27 2016, 06:33 PM Post #10
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I mean, Iowa's double plays are Michigan, Purdue, MSU, Indiana and PSU and only played Maryland at Maryland. You can't really get a tougher schedule than that in the league this year.
“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."

"I’d take him to the ends of the earth — I’d want him playing for me.” - Bo Ryan on Robbie Hummel

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brumdog44 Feb 27 2016, 06:55 PM Post #11
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dçamden03
Feb 27 2016, 06:20 PM
mongo
Feb 27 2016, 05:41 PM
they're 1-3 their last 4 games with the only win barely beating Minnesota at home
They've struggled of late but their resume is pretty solid. And they got the shaft with their league schedule having to go to Purdue Indiana and MSU Maryland.

The unbalanced schedule has really made these regular season league titles a bit watered down.
Only if you don't win it. I don't think IU is going to be less happy should they win the title. The whole 'title doesn't mean as much' is really something fans and announcers like to talk about but doesn't mean shit to any team winning or not winning the title. There hasn't been a balanced schedule in football in a LONG time and no one talks about a diminished title there.

BTW, comparison of team records with IU with the common opponent (with common venue) as IU and including their game or games with IU whether home or away:

IU and Purdue had 9 games in common so far plus their head to head game; IU went 9-1, Purdue went 6-4.
IU and Iowa had 9 games in common so far plus their head to head game; IU went 8-2, Iowa 7-3.
IU and Maryland had 10 games in common so far; IU went 8-2, Maryland 6-4.
IU and Michigan State had 7 games in common plus their head to head; both teams were 5-3.
IU and Wisconsin had 5 games in common plus two head to head matchups; both were 4-3.
IU and Ohio State had 6 games in common plus one head to head; IU went 6-1, Ohio State went 5-2.
IU and Michigan had 6 games in common plus their head to head; IU went 7-0 and Michigan went 6-1.

So where teams had common opponents and venues plus head to head games, NO team in the Big Ten put up a record better than IU. No other team can make that claim. Even if you remove the head to head games -- saying that one team might have played on one's team venue -- no team can still make the claim that they had a better record against common opponents.

Yes, IU had the easier overall schedule. But no team was able to gain ground on what was common to both.
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dçamden03 Feb 27 2016, 07:13 PM Post #12
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Indiana took care of business. They should rightfully be happy and celebrate it. But when you start talking resumes and why people are ranked/seeded differently, who and where you play teams is a huge factor with such unbalanced schedules.

Probably not much difference amongst the top teams. All can make runs in March given a good draw.
“He’s always been a guy — maybe to a fault — he would always try to do what I said. That seems like something simple in coaching, but those are the guys I hang my hat on. We’ve had some guys in our program, we had a couple guys that felt I had a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. And they were right — I do have a bias towards E’Twaun Moore. I like guys that go to class, that are academic All-Americans, that come early, that stay late, that love the game of basketball. I am biased towards those guys. And I’m biased towards Rob Hummel. But I’m also biased towards their habits, their work ethic, and how they carry themselves."

"I’d take him to the ends of the earth — I’d want him playing for me.” - Bo Ryan on Robbie Hummel

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dreachon Feb 27 2016, 07:26 PM Post #13
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dçamden03
Feb 27 2016, 06:33 PM
I mean, Iowa's double plays are Michigan, Purdue, MSU, Indiana and PSU and only played Maryland at Maryland. You can't really get a tougher schedule than that in the league this year.
So if Iowa goes on to win the BIG regular season championship, is it still watered down? Or is it spiked?
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brumdog44 Feb 27 2016, 07:29 PM Post #14
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dçamden03
Feb 27 2016, 06:33 PM
I mean, Iowa's double plays are Michigan, Purdue, MSU, Indiana and PSU and only played Maryland at Maryland. You can't really get a tougher schedule than that in the league this year.
IU's double plays are Wisconsin, Illinois, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota and only played Michigan State at Michigan State. Yep, that's easier and it is one of it not the easiest in the Big Ten.

But's talk about what the real difference is in comparing the two. Obviously we can remove the Iowa/Indiana double plays since they are playing each other.

For Indiana, the double plays are Wisconsin, Illinois, Nebraska, and Minnesota. Iowa's are Michigan, Purdue, MSU, and PSU. We also account for the fact if you don't play a team twice, you still play them once....so the double plays actually mean one extra game against those teams.

The extra games Iowa had for their grouping of four were hosting Michigan State, at Purdue, host Michigan, and host Penn State. The extra games Indiana had in the group were at Wisconsin, host Illinois, at Nebraska, and at Minnesota.

The group of four games that Iowa had I can see a floor of 2-2. They would be heavy favorites against Michigan and Penn State, probably a pick em game against Michigan State in Bloomington and slight dogs in West Lafayette.

Iowa would be heavy favorites against Illinois and Minnesota, a reasonable favorite against Nebraska, and a slight dog at Wisconsin. Reasonably, a 3-1 record would be the expectation.

So all of this 'watering down of a title' is on an expectation of a game difference?
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brumdog44 Feb 27 2016, 07:45 PM Post #15
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dçamden03
Feb 27 2016, 07:13 PM
Indiana took care of business. They should rightfully be happy and celebrate it. But when you start talking resumes and why people are ranked/seeded differently, who and where you play teams is a huge factor with such unbalanced schedules.

Probably not much difference amongst the top teams. All can make runs in March given a good draw.
If IU and Purdue were to both be 5 seeds right now -- which has been the general consensus -- I don't think it is so much a reflection of Indiana's 13-3 Big Ten record being the equivalent of Purdue 10-6 -- it's recognition of the whole season. IU started Big Ten play as probably a bubble team while Purdue was probably a 3 seed. Just different paths.

One thing that has happened that probably wasn't expected is that Indiana's horrid non-conference SOS has been rising during the year while Purdue's has been falling. The Wake Forest loss now looks absolutely horrible and the UNLV loss certainly wasn't a good one.....but if you would have told me after the non-conference that the teams we played in non-conference play would be 95-98 in their conferences, I wouldn't have believed you. Kenpom now actualy has IU's non-conference scheduled as tougher than Purdue's. Creighton has a solid Big East team, Alcorn State -- after not beating a D1 team in non-conference -- has went 11-4 in the SWAC. IPFW actually has clinched a share of the Summit League title.

A team's SOS is always kinetic. IU's non-conference schedule certainly was not good.....it's just not epically bad as it looked early in the year.
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