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Michigan
Tweet Topic Started: Mar 8 2016, 11:52 PM (52 Views)
sirbrianwilson Mar 8 2016, 11:52 PM Post #1
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Sanders' victory in Michigan is historic. Not saying he'll win the primary, but the polling for the Michigan primary was over 20 points in the opposite direction. That's a baffling result. Ridiculously and statistically baffling.
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mongo Mar 8 2016, 11:59 PM Post #2
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Most ridiculous was the pro Hillary pundits acting baffled by it at the end and justifying taking so long to call Michigan for Bernie. Have some neosporin for that bern.
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"Son, if you really want something in this life you have to work hard for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers."
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brumdog44 Mar 9 2016, 01:18 AM Post #3
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It's the strangest set of primaries I've ever seen. And I have a feeling that most people are going to be happy with either choice they have to make in November.

So how can they fuck it up even more?

I'm calling for Trump to pick Palin for his vice-president candidate. Then Hillary turns around and names Donald Trump her vice-presidential candidate considering his long history of liberal views prior to running as a republican.
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sirbrianwilson Mar 9 2016, 01:32 AM Post #4
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Isn't it odd how Palin fabulously returned to our lives for one single day then disappeared into oblivion again? Sure do miss her. And Bachman. Such comedic gold.

Br
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sirbrianwilson Mar 9 2016, 01:41 AM Post #5
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But seriously, how could the polls be THAT off? My theory is the late flint debate somehow had an effect. Most pollsters didn't poll yesterday. That, combined with Clinton-supporter complacency could have done the trick. I haven't looked into precinct turnouts yet, so there could be something there. Very interested to see how this plays out in Ohio now.
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brumdog44 Mar 9 2016, 06:47 AM Post #6
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sirbrianwilson
Mar 9 2016, 01:41 AM
But seriously, how could the polls be THAT off? My theory is the late flint debate somehow had an effect. Most pollsters didn't poll yesterday. That, combined with Clinton-supporter complacency could have done the trick. I haven't looked into precinct turnouts yet, so there could be something there. Very interested to see how this plays out in Ohio now.
Although they aren't typically as far off as they were in Michigan, primary polls aren't typically very accurate. They use small sample spaces and aren't typically representative of the population that vote. The Mississippi polls were basically as inaccurate as the Michigan ones. Clinton was an average of +44 in the Mississippi polls and ended up winning by around +70.
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HoosierLars Mar 9 2016, 10:51 AM Post #7
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Horrible night for Rubio. My opinion of him went down when he got down into the gutter with Trump.
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sirbrianwilson Mar 9 2016, 10:55 AM Post #8
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brumdog44
Mar 9 2016, 06:47 AM
sirbrianwilson
Mar 9 2016, 01:41 AM
But seriously, how could the polls be THAT off? My theory is the late flint debate somehow had an effect. Most pollsters didn't poll yesterday. That, combined with Clinton-supporter complacency could have done the trick. I haven't looked into precinct turnouts yet, so there could be something there. Very interested to see how this plays out in Ohio now.
Although they aren't typically as far off as they were in Michigan, primary polls aren't typically very accurate. They use small sample spaces and aren't typically representative of the population that vote. The Mississippi polls were basically as inaccurate as the Michigan ones. Clinton was an average of +44 in the Mississippi polls and ended up winning by around +70.
Definitely understand the inaccuracies on primary polling, but Mississippi is not comparable to Michigan. The rcp average was Clinton by 44. She won by 66. Although there were only 2 polls used to calculate the projection (one estimating Clinton by 54, the other 34). Yet it still projected the correct candidate. Michigan, being more important delegate-wise had dozens of polls prior to Tuesday. Some of which were 40 points off in the wrong direction. Not sure I've seen that big of an inaccuracy for the primary. Especially in a 2 dog race.
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sirbrianwilson Mar 9 2016, 10:56 AM Post #9
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Mar 9 2016, 10:51 AM
Horrible night for Rubio. My opinion of him went down when he got down into the gutter with Trump.
The whole field has gotten in the gutter with him this cycle. They let him decide the rules.
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sirbrianwilson Mar 9 2016, 04:05 PM Post #10
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-stunning-bernie-sanders-win-in-michigan-means/
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