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Trump leads in Rasmussen poll
Tweet Topic Started: May 2 2016, 10:51 PM (229 Views)
brumdog44 May 6 2016, 10:25 PM Post #16
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HoosierLars
May 6 2016, 07:47 PM
sirbrianwilson
May 6 2016, 09:55 AM
I'm not sure what point you are trying to make by posting links from summer, 2015.
The political landscape and rules have changed. Try to keep up, guys. :P
....and scientific polls account.for.that. Rasmussen defies the actual science.

If you need help with the numbers, just let me know. You must have been the guy at Purdue that wasn't in a math field.
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brumdog44 May 6 2016, 10:27 PM Post #17
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HoosierLars
May 6 2016, 07:50 PM
sirbrianwilson
May 6 2016, 10:41 AM
I think we are headed into probably the most interesting full campaign season of my lifetime. While the 2000 result fiasco was movie-worthy, this is the first time in my life we have two candidates that are very disliked by large percentages of their own parties. How this will affect polling with a four spectrum split, I'm not really sure. But in terms of polling methodology, etc, I'm not quite sure where the argument for Rasmussen is outside of "they posted an outlier poll that favored my guy."

Where rcp shows only meta-data, 538 takes this information and runs it against the historical accuracies of each polling agency. This is how he was only off by ONE electoral college vote in the 2008 election. That's like having a perfect bracket with the exception of one play-in game. It's still a perfect bracket.
The bracket comparison is horrible. It's more like the stock picker who has a great year, or the gambling "expert" who has a good run. It's part skill with a lot of luck. The political rules have changed. Nobody knows what's going to happen the next six months. Given the choice of being up or down 9 pts, sure I'd choose being up. But I won't have much confidence in any polling for the next 3-4 months until the two campaigns get off the ground.
If you don't have any confidence in any of the polling in the next 3-4 months, then when in the freak are you starting a thread about a poll?

:owned:
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HoosierLars May 6 2016, 11:00 PM Post #18
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brumdog44
May 6 2016, 10:27 PM
HoosierLars
May 6 2016, 07:50 PM
sirbrianwilson
May 6 2016, 10:41 AM
I think we are headed into probably the most interesting full campaign season of my lifetime. While the 2000 result fiasco was movie-worthy, this is the first time in my life we have two candidates that are very disliked by large percentages of their own parties. How this will affect polling with a four spectrum split, I'm not really sure. But in terms of polling methodology, etc, I'm not quite sure where the argument for Rasmussen is outside of "they posted an outlier poll that favored my guy."

Where rcp shows only meta-data, 538 takes this information and runs it against the historical accuracies of each polling agency. This is how he was only off by ONE electoral college vote in the 2008 election. That's like having a perfect bracket with the exception of one play-in game. It's still a perfect bracket.
The bracket comparison is horrible. It's more like the stock picker who has a great year, or the gambling "expert" who has a good run. It's part skill with a lot of luck. The political rules have changed. Nobody knows what's going to happen the next six months. Given the choice of being up or down 9 pts, sure I'd choose being up. But I won't have much confidence in any polling for the next 3-4 months until the two campaigns get off the ground.
If you don't have any confidence in any of the polling in the next 3-4 months, then when in the freak are you starting a thread about a poll?

:owned:
Awesome is as awesome does.
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rkl15 May 10 2016, 08:45 AM Post #19
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Trump - Clinton Even in 3 swing states

This election is going to be closer than many think.

Somehow Trump seems to gain ground at each step.

In the beginning there was no way he would win the nomination.

Now, it is all but certain that he will.

Next, everyone says there is no way he will win the general election.

When this is down to 2 (Clinton vs Trump) it will get interesting.

Hillary is not good at debates, and Trump will go after her with every misstep she has ever done.

He doesn't care about his missteps and just keeps going.

I don't think this election is going to be an easy win for Hillary.
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HoosierLars May 10 2016, 08:53 AM Post #20
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*mouth breathing" But that's not a legitimate poll! *mouth breathing*
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brumdog44 May 10 2016, 08:32 PM Post #21
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rkl15
May 10 2016, 08:45 AM
Hillary is not good at debates, and Trump will go after her with every misstep she has ever done.

So are you voting for Trump because he's such an adept debater?

In terms of the poll, here you go, Lars....an issue with the Quinnipiac poll oversamples white voters when we are seeing the Hispanic population registration numbers showing that we will continue to follow the pattern of a greater and greater minority voting population.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/a-new-poll-shows-trump-beating-clinton-in-ohio-but-it-assumes-a-pretty-white-electorate/?tid=a_inl
Edited by brumdog44, May 10 2016, 08:41 PM.
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brumdog44 May 10 2016, 08:35 PM Post #22
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HoosierLars
May 10 2016, 08:53 AM
*mouth breathing" But that's not a legitimate poll! *mouth breathing*
LOL at the man who has 'no confidence in polls' in a thread on polls.
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sirbrianwilson May 10 2016, 08:43 PM Post #23
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The lack of understanding about polling this week has been astounding.

"Nate silver, the guy who thought had zero chance, is now shown to be flat out wrong because trump is statistically tied in three swig states!"

Unbelievable. Anyone catching President Dean's press conference tomorrow?
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rkl15 May 10 2016, 09:32 PM Post #24
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brumdog44
May 10 2016, 08:32 PM
rkl15
May 10 2016, 08:45 AM
Hillary is not good at debates, and Trump will go after her with every misstep she has ever done.

So are you voting for Trump because he's such an adept debater?

In terms of the poll, here you go, Lars....an issue with the Quinnipiac poll oversamples white voters when we are seeing the Hispanic population registration numbers showing that we will continue to follow the pattern of a greater and greater minority voting population.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/a-new-poll-shows-trump-beating-clinton-in-ohio-but-it-assumes-a-pretty-white-electorate/?tid=a_inl
Not even sure I will vote.

But if you don't believe that the debates can and will swing votes one way or another, well........

We will just have to disagree on that.
Edited by rkl15, May 10 2016, 09:44 PM.
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brumdog44 May 10 2016, 10:22 PM Post #25
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rkl15
May 10 2016, 09:32 PM
brumdog44
May 10 2016, 08:32 PM
rkl15
May 10 2016, 08:45 AM
Hillary is not good at debates, and Trump will go after her with every misstep she has ever done.

So are you voting for Trump because he's such an adept debater?

In terms of the poll, here you go, Lars....an issue with the Quinnipiac poll oversamples white voters when we are seeing the Hispanic population registration numbers showing that we will continue to follow the pattern of a greater and greater minority voting population.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/a-new-poll-shows-trump-beating-clinton-in-ohio-but-it-assumes-a-pretty-white-electorate/?tid=a_inl
Not even sure I will vote.

But if you don't believe that the debates can and will swing votes one way or another, well........

We will just have to disagree on that.
The fact that you think Trump is going to gain in a two party debate is laughable to me. The people voting for him and will vote against him regardless of opponent are pretty set in stone. The fact remains that there is such a large number of republicans who will not vote for him speaks volumes. There is a reason that Paul Ryan says he's not ready to endorse him....losing the presidential race is the least of their worries. Losing congress races is the danger in a negative coattail effect.
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