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Updated Political Poll
Tweet Topic Started: May 22 2016, 08:44 PM (3,333 Views)
HoosierLars Aug 26 2016, 11:23 PM Post #136
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brumdog44
Aug 25 2016, 10:46 PM
dreachon
Aug 25 2016, 08:59 PM
brumdog44
Aug 25 2016, 08:40 PM
dreachon
Aug 25 2016, 07:50 PM
sirbrianwilson
Aug 25 2016, 07:38 PM
I think the "days Trump has gone without saying something ridiculously offensive and stupid" counter is at an all time high right now. what are we at, 3? 4?

br
No way. It's like 8 or 9 isn't it? Since he hired Breitbart?
You don't count calling a person winning 98% of the African-American vote a 'bigot'?

Or Trump saying 'believe me, in four years 95% of the African-American vote?

Or his campaign slogan of 'What the Hell do you have to lose?'

Maybe not offensive, but just downright stupid.
Yeah, but not campaign damaging stupid.
At this point -- down 5 to 6 percent -- they have to do better than just 'not campaign damaging stupid'.

Trump's new 'immigration stance' certainly is a muddled mess right now. Not sure how many different stances he's going to take. He also started citing the Breitbart piece of fiction that there could be up to 30 million illegal immigrants in the United States.
It's smart for Trump to say that the first thing he'll do is throw out all of the illegal alien criminals and gang-bangers. Amazingly, the Democrats disagree with this! Make Hillary defend sanctuary cities and her plan to increase Syrian immigration by 500% and the numbers will continue to tighten in spite of the MSM circling the wagons around their unlikable, low-energy candidate.
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brumdog44 Aug 27 2016, 05:56 AM Post #137
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HoosierLars
Aug 26 2016, 11:23 PM
brumdog44
Aug 25 2016, 10:46 PM
dreachon
Aug 25 2016, 08:59 PM
brumdog44
Aug 25 2016, 08:40 PM
dreachon
Aug 25 2016, 07:50 PM
sirbrianwilson
Aug 25 2016, 07:38 PM
I think the "days Trump has gone without saying something ridiculously offensive and stupid" counter is at an all time high right now. what are we at, 3? 4?

br
No way. It's like 8 or 9 isn't it? Since he hired Breitbart?
You don't count calling a person winning 98% of the African-American vote a 'bigot'?

Or Trump saying 'believe me, in four years 95% of the African-American vote?

Or his campaign slogan of 'What the Hell do you have to lose?'

Maybe not offensive, but just downright stupid.
Yeah, but not campaign damaging stupid.
At this point -- down 5 to 6 percent -- they have to do better than just 'not campaign damaging stupid'.

Trump's new 'immigration stance' certainly is a muddled mess right now. Not sure how many different stances he's going to take. He also started citing the Breitbart piece of fiction that there could be up to 30 million illegal immigrants in the United States.
It's smart for Trump to say that the first thing he'll do is throw out all of the illegal alien criminals and gang-bangers. Amazingly, the Democrats disagree with this! Make Hillary defend sanctuary cities and her plan to increase Syrian immigration by 500% and the numbers will continue to tighten in spite of the MSM circling the wagons around their unlikable, low-energy candidate.
Know that unlikable candidate you are talking about? Trump is barely in her rear view mirror right now. I'm not sure what your feel is 'continuing to tighten'.....remember when you posted your now famous 'Trump takes his first now cast lead on 538' post a month ago? It's now 80/20 for Clinton.

The republicans have a national election problem in that the floor for the presidential election for the democrats is much higher than the floor for the republicans....in a generic ballot, the minimum electoral votes cast for each party based on states that you typically think won't be lost is probably about 230 for the democrats and 160 for the republicans. The last six elections, the minimum number of electoral votes carried by a democrat has been 251. In the four republican losses since 1992, they have only topped 200 once and that was with 206 electoral votes.

The republicans can't win with winning both Florida and Ohio PLUS winning the majority of other swing states. Right now, if you take the states where Hillary leads and then throw out North Carolina, Iowa, Florida, Ohio, and Nevada -- states where 538 is giving 64% or higher chance to win right now -- she still wins the election.

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HoosierLars Aug 27 2016, 02:42 PM Post #138
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538 recently had Trump in the single digits. He's gained back a lot of ground in the last week. This election is extremely volatile now, and will continue to be up to the election. Hell, I want them both to lose.
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brumdog44 Aug 27 2016, 04:44 PM Post #139
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HoosierLars
Aug 27 2016, 02:42 PM
538 recently had Trump in the single digits. He's gained back a lot of ground in the last week. This election is extremely volatile now, and will continue to be up to the election. Hell, I want them both to lose.
You do know about regression to the mean, don't you? The now cast is simply a one day snapshot and deals a lot with daily momentum. The polls and polls plus -- which look and predict forward, Trump has never been in single digits. Lowest he's been in August is 20.5%. He started August at 32% and sits at 26% right now.

There is a huge state problem for Trump in terms of states where it seems incredibly unlikely that he can win -- and even compete in.

I can't imagine him winning any Northeastern state....perhaps New Hampshire, but I simply don't see that happening as well.

The northeast

Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
D.C.

Those total 61 electoral votes.

He'll lose New York badly and despite his protests, I see no chance he wins Pennsylvania. Those two total 49 electoral votes.

Virginia is pretty much a Clinton lock. That's 13 more.

Go on to the midwest. Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ilinois......not sure how Clinton would lose any of those. That's 56.

West: a lot of republicans have already written off Colorado and don't think Trump should even bother advertising there. Clinton is up double digits in New Mexico. Those two total 14.

That puts it up to 193.

West coast:

California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii.....Clinton, Clinton, Clinton, and Clinton. 78 total, putting Clinton at 271 electoral votes.

So with only possibly New Hampshire being a swing state (which I don't think it is), Clinton is over the top. Trump could win every 'swing state' -- including five where he is losing right now -- and still lose the election.

I assume since you want them both to lose that you'll be voting third party?
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HoosierLars Aug 27 2016, 11:25 PM Post #140
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http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
chart shows a low of 10.8, but I saw 9.8 one day.
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brumdog44 Aug 28 2016, 07:27 AM Post #141
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HoosierLars
Aug 27 2016, 11:25 PM
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
chart shows a low of 10.8, but I saw 9.8 one day.
I'm just not seeing classifying him as making 'significant gains'. The average electoral count in simulations from the chart you are talking about still puts Jim under 200 electoral votes and down 6.6 percent in the popular vote.
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Mr Gray Aug 28 2016, 05:43 PM Post #142
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There are some new Hillary leaks coming that will help Trump. We'll just have to see how much and if he can take full advantage of them. Name calling (crooked Hillary) doesn't do much for me, but it seems to have worked for him to some degree. It seems to me that it would be better to actually explain why and how her irresponsible behavior is detrimental to our nation......but I suppose that's unfortunately not what most people care about or even understand.
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The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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brumdog44 Aug 28 2016, 06:37 PM Post #143
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Aug 28 2016, 05:43 PM
There are some new Hillary leaks coming that will help Trump. We'll just have to see how much and if he can take full advantage of them. Name calling (crooked Hillary) doesn't do much for me, but it seems to have worked for him to some degree. It seems to me that it would be better to actually explain why and how her irresponsible behavior is detrimental to our nation......but I suppose that's unfortunately not what most people care about or even understand.
The problem is that the name calling only keeps the base. It has a negative effect on its growth, IMO.

There will be some leaks from Assange, who has some strange obsession with Clinton. I think the worst ones have already been released, though (the DNC ones).

The incredible difference in the ground games IMO will be highlighted in November.

The other day Trump spoke in Jackson, Mississippi. He's held three rallies in Texas since June.
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HoosierLars Aug 28 2016, 07:00 PM Post #144
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I think Pence would be a serviceable President. That circumstances could cause him to be elevated to the #1 spot on the ticket? If Trump withdrew, would that do it?
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mongo Aug 28 2016, 09:26 PM Post #145
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"I think pence would be a serviceable president" is not a sentence that should ever be said. Surely you're joking
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"Son, if you really want something in this life you have to work hard for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers."
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rkl15 Aug 28 2016, 09:39 PM Post #146
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Aug 28 2016, 09:26 PM
"I think pence would be a serviceable president" is not a sentence that should ever be said. Surely you're joking
Would Pence be "less" serviceable than Hillary? or Donald??
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sirbrianwilson Aug 29 2016, 02:17 AM Post #147
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Is this what we have come to?



Oh god.....yes, this is...
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mongo Aug 29 2016, 07:52 AM Post #148
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Aug 28 2016, 09:39 PM
mongo
Aug 28 2016, 09:26 PM
"I think pence would be a serviceable president" is not a sentence that should ever be said. Surely you're joking
Would Pence be "less" serviceable than Hillary? or Donald??
Hillary probably...trump, it doesn't get less serviceable than that. A woodboard with a face painted on it would be a better president.
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"Son, if you really want something in this life you have to work hard for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers."
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Mr Gray Aug 29 2016, 10:29 AM Post #149
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mongo
Aug 29 2016, 07:52 AM
rkl15
Aug 28 2016, 09:39 PM
mongo
Aug 28 2016, 09:26 PM
"I think pence would be a serviceable president" is not a sentence that should ever be said. Surely you're joking
Would Pence be "less" serviceable than Hillary? or Donald??
Hillary probably...trump, it doesn't get less serviceable than that. A woodboard with a face painted on it would be a better president.
Pence would be an upgrade from either of the 2.
Posted Image
The body knows what fighters don't: how to protect itself. A neck can only twist so far. Twist it just a hair more and the body says, "Hey, I'll take it from here because you obviously don't know what you're doing... Lie down now, rest, and we'll talk about this when you regain your senses." It's called the knockout mechanism.
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mongo Aug 29 2016, 10:47 AM Post #150
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Mr Gray
Aug 29 2016, 10:29 AM
mongo
Aug 29 2016, 07:52 AM
rkl15
Aug 28 2016, 09:39 PM
mongo
Aug 28 2016, 09:26 PM
"I think pence would be a serviceable president" is not a sentence that should ever be said. Surely you're joking
Would Pence be "less" serviceable than Hillary? or Donald??
Hillary probably...trump, it doesn't get less serviceable than that. A woodboard with a face painted on it would be a better president.
Pence would be an upgrade from either of the 2.
Really? Pence is hated in his own, incredibly conservative state.
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"Son, if you really want something in this life you have to work hard for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers."
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