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Updated Political Poll
Tweet Topic Started: May 22 2016, 08:44 PM (3,331 Views)
HoosierLars Aug 31 2016, 10:21 AM Post #166
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Trump keeps creeping up in the 538 prediction poll, up to 22.7% today. Against a credible Democrat candidate, he'd have zero chance.
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brumdog44 Aug 31 2016, 10:50 PM Post #167
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HoosierLars
Aug 31 2016, 10:21 AM
Trump keeps creeping up in the 538 prediction poll, up to 22.7% today. Against a credible Democrat candidate, he'd have zero chance.
Against a credible republican candidate, neither would Hillary.

BTW, the best of the three predictions that 538 offers is probably the polls plus.
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HoosierLars Sep 1 2016, 10:54 AM Post #168
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Trump up to 26.2%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
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boilergrad01 Sep 1 2016, 06:40 PM Post #169
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Brum,

Odd my source was off by a week. Crazy thing is you called thecorrect polls he would lead in. I did not know which two. Very impressive my friend.
Nothing beats an Astronaut
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brumdog44 Sep 1 2016, 06:43 PM Post #170
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boilergrad01
Sep 1 2016, 06:40 PM
Brum,

Odd my source was off by a week. Crazy thing is you called thecorrect polls he would lead in. I did not know which two. Very impressive my friend.
I have no idea what you are talking about.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Trump has led in only the LA Times polling the past two weeks.

Not sure why you are impressed by a predictor who was dead wrong.
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boilergrad01 Sep 1 2016, 07:27 PM Post #171
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brumdog44
Sep 1 2016, 06:43 PM
boilergrad01
Sep 1 2016, 06:40 PM
Brum,

Odd my source was off by a week. Crazy thing is you called thecorrect polls he would lead in. I did not know which two. Very impressive my friend.
I have no idea what you are talking about.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Trump has led in only the LA Times polling the past two weeks.

Not sure why you are impressed by a predictor who was dead wrong.
My bad it was Dreach not you. He prdicted. Rassmussen and LATimes

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Trump had a one point lead in Rassmussen
Nothing beats an Astronaut
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sirbrianwilson Sep 1 2016, 07:35 PM Post #172
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Easy to predict because their results are predictable
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brumdog44 Sep 1 2016, 08:11 PM Post #173
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boilergrad01
Sep 1 2016, 07:27 PM
brumdog44
Sep 1 2016, 06:43 PM
boilergrad01
Sep 1 2016, 06:40 PM
Brum,

Odd my source was off by a week. Crazy thing is you called thecorrect polls he would lead in. I did not know which two. Very impressive my friend.
I have no idea what you are talking about.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Trump has led in only the LA Times polling the past two weeks.

Not sure why you are impressed by a predictor who was dead wrong.
My bad it was Dreach not you. He prdicted. Rassmussen and LATimes

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Trump had a one point lead in Rassmussen
Dreach predicted both correct. I told you what the problem with both is. Rasmussen reports is the worst of them all. I believe they had Romney ahead in their poll entering election night in 2012. Rasmussen does robocalls to only land lines.

I'm not so sure you are impressed by your friend when he was off by the week and Dreach could predict which polls it would be by picking the worst two.
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brumdog44 Sep 1 2016, 08:21 PM Post #174
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BTW, the polls have been becoming increasingly overrating republicans on the national level as modes of communication change. Those using robocalls over predicted Romney by 4.3 percent in 2012. Those using telephone polls without cellphones over predicted Romney by 3 percent.
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brumdog44 Sep 1 2016, 08:25 PM Post #175
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Here you go: Rasmussen Reports, Nov 5, 2012: predicts Romney to win electoral college count over Obama, 315-223. Just missed the result by 109.

Nate Silver of 538......predicted it on the nose, not missing a single state. He's missed one state in the last two elections.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/going_out_on_a_limb_romney_beats_obama_handily
Edited by brumdog44, Sep 1 2016, 08:26 PM.
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sirbrianwilson Sep 2 2016, 09:59 PM Post #176
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Honestly, the promise of a taco truck on every corner might make me vote for Clinton...just being real here, fellas..

br
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brumdog44 Sep 3 2016, 08:29 AM Post #177
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sirbrianwilson
Sep 2 2016, 09:59 PM
Honestly, the promise of a taco truck on every corner might make me vote for Clinton...just being real here, fellas..

br
Would they have Trump tower taco salads, the truest of all Mexican foods?
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mongo Sep 3 2016, 09:41 AM Post #178
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brumdog44
Sep 3 2016, 08:29 AM
sirbrianwilson
Sep 2 2016, 09:59 PM
Honestly, the promise of a taco truck on every corner might make me vote for Clinton...just being real here, fellas..

br
Would they have Trump tower taco salads, the truest of all Mexican foods?
"I love Hispanics!"
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"Son, if you really want something in this life you have to work hard for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers."
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HoosierLars Sep 3 2016, 10:47 AM Post #179
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27.7%, still on the rise
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
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brumdog44 Sep 3 2016, 03:32 PM Post #180
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HoosierLars
Sep 3 2016, 10:47 AM
27.7%, still on the rise
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Yep, saw that. Has certainly tightened up some.
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