| Day 5: Another One Bites the Dust | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Nov 1 2016, 07:30 PM (827 Views) | |
| Claire Stanfield | Nov 2 2016, 09:27 AM Post #21 |
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Baccano!
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I was annoyed with Weevil barely answering questions and I honestly did not understand him drawing attention to this clever ploy of his. If he wanted to share so badly he could have just posted this post earlier. I did then comment on it and I stand by the fact that those 'hints' were tenuous at best. Lelouch was fine with it so I dropped it at the time but I just realized something new about it: The second link mentions Isaac as his gut feeling suspect which apparently is supposed to hint at a guilty report on Isaac. Yet Weevil barely pursued Isaac at the time so this doesn't really click. Any comments, Weevil? If we needed more votes to lynch somebody I would put one on you right now. I guess I'll FoS then. First time for everything. This just reads like you're trying to shake up Town by making us doubt Mimi. What you say is technicallly possible (just like Lelouch and Mimi both being mafia which Yuuki mentioned -> this goes for you too although not as strongly) but how was the mafia supposed to know who the second doctor would be protecting and therefore clear? Could just as well have been a Townie (like what actually happened, I'd wager). Why would they give up a night of killing for possibly clearing Mimi who was already in high regards? About my Kakashi question: only Weevil answered (that Kakashi may be mafia) but Mimi had already stated her disinterest to overanalyze the Kakashi thing which I assume was what I had asked about. So I guess I'll drop it. I just wondered if I was looking at an active mafia pair or not. |
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| Claire Stanfield | Nov 2 2016, 09:51 AM Post #22 |
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Baccano!
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About Kira: Can anybody point me towards a post of his where he takes a clear stance on anything? Here's what I found: Day 1: He refuses to unvote Mimi (whatever) Day 2: He starts the Sakuragi wagon (fair) Day 3: This is his only real post and all he does is maybe side more with Isaac over Lelouch. I don't think you cared who got lynched there. Day 4: He presents us with four pairings and asks who we would lynch over the other. He's asking us for our stances before figuring out his own. So that's all I got. Besides the not voting for Tenma bit which I do have to come back to because there's not much more that's decisive about your posts. |
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| Yoshikage Kira | Nov 2 2016, 10:45 AM Post #23 |
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Jojo's Bizarre Adventure
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I said high chance of a Yuuki/Claire team in my previous post, but I think I'll up the probability. Claire, like yesterday, finds Yuuki to be the least likely among the suspects Weevil, him and myself. Yuuki also deems Weevil and me worth more lynchable then Claire. Both hardly address things about each other, but talk much about Weevil and me. |
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| Claire Stanfield | Nov 2 2016, 11:05 AM Post #24 |
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Baccano!
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My suspects are who my suspects are. I don't see the merit in trying to make up things to suspect about Yuuki just to cover all my bases. |
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| Mimi | Nov 2 2016, 12:59 PM Post #25 |
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Digimon
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To give Weevil the benefit of the doubt, there are a couple of circumstances that could make his claim hold water: 1. We did in fact have an instance yesterday of Isaac asking the healer to target Lelouch or me. 2. With this in mind, it could have been assumed that the faith healer could in fact aim to protect me. If I were indeed scum, then mafia could kill no one and hope that this could draw out the faith healer to come out and clear me as town, therefore ensuring at least one mafia extremely unlikely to be lynched. So it is not far-fetched for mafia to have guessed I would be targeted. I do agree with Claire though that it would be unreasonable to do this in order to clear someone the town had already dismissed as a possibility... the risk of failure for them would have been far higher than the reward. I'm agreeing with Claire regarding Kira. Even after a reread, the situation is what it is in that Kira has retained relative inactivity with presence in key moments that give an illusion of participation, where in fact he has contributed very little while also negatively affecting outcomes, such as in the failure to lynch Tenma. For now, Unvote And now, let's really think about the context here. Yesterday the focus on Isaac was established early on that meant there was no reason for mafia to even bother setting up that much as the mafia kill would have secured the game even further. Mafia had the luxury to just sit back and fan the flames in one direction without a greater need to investigate or set up more suspects. Then they kill one of the people who most agreed was town to ensure the last day could potentially wind up in a mislynch. Right now it's the same in that if mafia gets a mislynch the game is pretty much theirs, but the pool of people for them to go at has decreased dramatically. No one proved able to counter Lelouch's claim, which means he's cleared. This in turn gives me 99% of a clear, 100% if we ignore Weevil's consideration. Kakashi is ultimately and most-definitely confirmed inactive and not an element to the game, simply there to fill up a number quota that will allow the game to continue unperturbed. If he were a mafia going intentionally inactive I doubt that the mods would allow for that rule to exist. That means a pool of 4 people remain as viable scum, and since no one is gonna argue for themselves being mafia, it means each non-confirmed individual has a choice of 3 possible pairings to pursue. This means that a mafia player can either go for a completely stretched out argument to connect two possible townies as scumbuddies, or they can aim to remain as calm as possible and analyze their way into scumbuddy combinations that include their actual scumbuddy + someone else, hoping we stick to the someone else at least one of these remaining days. For reference, the possible pairings are: Claire + Weevil Claire + Yuuki Claire + Kira Kira + Yuuki Kira + Weevil Yuuki + Weevil Let's consider Kira being scum. That means that he has a choice of going for Yuuki + Weevil or Yuuki + Claire or Weevil + Claire. The hilarity of this situation is that Kira has in no capacity beforehand established solid arguments against Claire, and the suspicion of Yuuki and Weevil was at best ancillary. Yesterday he claimed Claire was the least suspicious to him along with Lelouch, but now today he considers him an option because of Yuuki rereading the days and finding nothing on Claire. This creates a narrative in which the decision of pairings for Kira seems not based on reasoning against an individual (Claire, or even Yuuki) naturally leading up to a logical pairing per se as much as it is influenced by the need to grapple onto a working narrative, one which Yuuki provided. (Yuuki suddenly exonerating Claire? pair them up as scumbuddies) Kira: if I am incorrect, then please inform the group of what evidence from the previous days can gather to use against Claire? Because from what I know from rereading the days, I was unable to find any, which is consistent with what Yuuki said. Can you put any real weight to your suspicion? Meanwhile, considering Claire, the pool of individuals that have naturally gotten narrower across the days remain entirely consistent with the beliefs he has upheld throughout the game. It makes me feel reasonably secure in believing that Claire makes observations on individuals and narrows his focus as more candidates are eliminated, while something like what Kira is doing screams of improvising a position in light of having prepared no solid, lasting accusations over time aside from the flavor of the day lynches. It is NOT impossible that Claire is mafia, but it feels highly improbable to me. With this in mind I see our chances today as one in three: Kira, Yuuki or Weevil. And out of those I think Kira's behavior has raised the most flags for many of us. Weevil waiting until today to suddenly make his "long" post in which he maintains a desire to lynch Yuuki even without having a read on him, and then trying to bring up a possibility of having me as scum, also screams of efforts to distract from the handicap mafia currently has by expanding the list of suspects once again and divide town, also shows a sudden urgency in showing he is in fact participating in the game to avoid a lynch. Yuuki naturally remains equally suspect, but today he has demonstrated more investment assuming he did in fact reread, and assuming the Yuuki - Kira exchange earlier wasn't a planned bit for Kira to set up a Claire suspicion out of nowhere. Aside from all of this, I think we also owe it to Isaac to respect the fact he was highly suspicious of Kira as well. So of those three, I say we go Kira. If it is wrong again it is a result of weak town plays and that's just something we have to accept. Naturally I am open to other considerations people may have. But for now, I am overdue on sleep. |
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| Mimi | Nov 2 2016, 01:02 PM Post #26 |
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Digimon
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Ha, I underestimate our chances actually. It should be a two-in-three, not one-in-three, chance of hitting a mafia player, assuming of course that we can agree Claire has been consistent enough to be removed from consideration. |
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| Lelouch vi Britannia | Nov 2 2016, 03:38 PM Post #27 |
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Code Geass
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Aw maan, so nobody's gonna make it easy and counter-claim? ![]() Guess I'm gonna have to re-read again. But hey everyone's involved in the conversations today so that's nice. I'm in Ashford Academy at the moment, so I'll post my thoughts later |
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| Mimi | Nov 2 2016, 11:01 PM Post #28 |
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Digimon
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Almost 12 hours and no one has anything to say. I'm good with waiting no more with that being the case. Vote lynch: Yoshikage Kira |
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| Lelouch vi Britannia | Nov 3 2016, 12:05 AM Post #29 |
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Code Geass
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Sorry, I am in the middle of a re-read and note taking but I keep falling asleep. I'll take a little time off and then resume. I'm looking especially at Tenma. Whom he interacted with and how and when those interactions were all can tell us something, I think. |
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| Mimi | Nov 3 2016, 12:57 AM Post #30 |
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Digimon
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Fair enough, but if tedious, and considering half the day is gone, take a look at the information I posted previously and use it to guide what you focus on or not. Basically, I think what would help most if for everyone to explore if there is something that counters my idea of Claire being town. If no one is able to counter that argument, the game can be settled in our favor from there. |
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