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| Interesting Read from 2010; I just found this in my old favorites | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Sep 14 2015, 06:29 PM (98 Views) | |
| corky | Sep 14 2015, 06:29 PM Post #1 |
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Link "1. As I have described many times, I expect oil to plummet to $25/barrel at some point in 2011-13 as the global economy implodes. Demand will crash and kleptocracies everywhere will pump more in a desperate attempt to keep their welfare states afloat. I call this the "Oil Head-Fake." Apparently a few other analysts are of the same mind. 2. This dramatic decline in oil revenues will trigger regime change in Venezuela, Iran and all other nations which are dependent on oil revenues for the maintenance of their welfare state/Armed Forces/Political Elites. In effect, all the U.S. needs to do is either wait for this crash in oil prices, or nudge the Saudis into creating the crash with overproduction. The Saudis (Sunni) fear the Iranians (Shi'ite) and would not be sorry to see regime change in Iran. 3. Capital restrictions will become commonplace, as nations awaken to the fact that their sovereignty and control of their own assets will be lost if they allow uncontrolled flows of capital in and out of their economy. 4. That means the clock is ticking on the U.S. dollar hegemony. Capital controls are the first step in controlling foreign exchange. Either an alternative global reserve currency will be established, or nations will institute dual-currency trading: one value for real trade, another value for foreign exchange. 5. Until the U.S. loses its currency hegemony, it can outbid any other great power for any resource. The U.S. funds its Empire by selling its bonds (debt) to those who have traded goods for our dollars. Thus the cost of the Empire is largely borne by other nations as the U.S. exports inflation and its currency in exchange for cheap goods and resources. Until China gains an equivalent advantage, then it will have to bid for resources with earned income. That means they will lose any competition for resources because their apparently substantial wealth (a few trillion dollars in reserves) is modest compared to what the U.S. can create/print. 6. Capital controls will be followed by resource controls. The export of energy, food and minerals will be controlled. The excuses given won't matter; there will be no alternative. Governments which let their own populaces starve in order to ship food overseas will be overthrown by whatever means are necessary. As Bob Marley observed, "a hungry mob is an angry mob." That's how Bastilles get torn down, brick by brick, by enraged, hungry mobs. 7. The clock is ticking on China's moment in the sun. As its costs of commodities and food skyrockets, its citizens' restive ambitions are thwarted by the limits facing all consuming nations, and its aging populace catches up with it, then China's resources will be stretched too thin to construct a Grand Empire with decisive hard and soft power." Pretty interesting for being from 2010!!!!
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| Telcoman | Sep 14 2015, 10:38 PM Post #2 |
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Administrator
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Hmm, not far off the mark. |
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| corky | Sep 14 2015, 10:56 PM Post #3 |
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Paul, If you haven't read the whole paper, it's not that long.
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12:18 AM Jul 11