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Mafia Open #2 (DAY 2)
Topic Started: Dec 12 2016, 08:08 PM (425 Views)
EOE
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Spoiler for Role List


Players
1. Skarfelt
2. CTurtle
3. Verdant
4. Colly
5. Fighta
6. Jeshter
7. blue_persil
8. AN2
9. Lupin
10. SuperChar
11. kerbykong

Night 2 has ended. Jeshter is dead!
Day 2 has begun. Night 3 will begin on Thursday, December 15th, @ 8:00 PM GMT.
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Skarfelt
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-phew- that was a stressful night. It was entirely possible that SuperChar/Lupin/whoever died last night was Charismatic Villager and we hadn't hit Scum which would have ended the game for us. Seems we're in luck. There's a few possible remaining possibilities;

1. There are four Mafia members alive and four Townies alive including Charismatic Villager.
2. There are three Mafia members alive and five Townies alive.
3. The Vigilante actually shot on Night 1 or 2 and Doc saved Mafia's kill to have potentially less Mafia alive than before.

I think it's pretty safe to write #3 off. IMO, we should be playing as if it's worst case scenario - #1. As such, I urge anybody who's a "Vanilla Townie" to hold your vote for as long as possible. It's possible that you are Charismatic Villager and your vote could feasibly end the game. I'd urge the rest of Town to be very careful with their votes - if a member of Town starts voting a Townie, Mafia could swoop in and quickly slam four votes on the Townie to hammer them and win the game, assuming that there are indeed four Mafia remaining.

With all of that out of the way, I'm going to start proceedings with some extremely good news. I am Cop and, overnight, I received a Guilty on CTurtle. On Night 1, I received an Innocent on Kerbykong. I chose to investigate Kerbykong Night 1 as a semi-random pick that also did some pretty good work in the last game. On Night 2, I chose to investigate CTurtle due to him being one of my biggest suspicions throughout the day, plus the fact he never swapped his vote off of Lupin for the entire day despite saying "I don't feel the need to be suspicious of him right now" in Post #38 - to me, this reeked of a player that just wanted somebody dead rather than specifically Mafia dead. It appears I was right.

I do understand that there is a Miller in the game so there is reason to be wary but I think CTurtle's sub-par, scummy play coupled with a guilty (considering guilties have a 4/5 chance to be accurate), I'm extremely confident in placing my vote.

VOTE: CTurtle
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CTurtle
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So I guess it looks like my theory of inexperienced mafia players has been thrown out the window After this message I can confirm that Skarfelt is in fact mafia and that a lot of the complaints that Blue Persil and Jeshter were throwing at Jonty are true. I do want to say one thing to the Cop that is out there. Don't try to counter claim yet, right now you are one of the most important roles and counter claiming is going to leave the town in a very bad position. For now I'm going to have to try and prove to the town that I am a villager.

Let's get my reasoning behind leaving my vote on Lupin on him. Verdant obviously was going to be the prime target for a lot of peoples votes, what with his extremely filler messages. But the thing is Lupin extremely poor defence of this behaviour was a lot more damaging in my opinion, it made him come off as someone trying to encourage less discussion in the group and not letting thoughts out which I feel is extremely damaging at this point. At least Verdant had some for of self awareness about the fact his actions were stupid, Lupin genuinely thought that this was okay and this gave me the impression that he was trying to defend to come off as a helpful townie. That point about my post #38 was made 29 messages (more than a full page) before Lupin had said this message. I definitely should have given a reason for it before but there's nothing I can do about that now.

After these messages which give me the impression that you're mafia I'm beginning to reconsider Lupins allegiance but who knows, maybe he was willing to take it for the team.
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CTurtle
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Vote: Skarfelt
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Skarfelt
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"CTurtle"
 
I do want to say one thing to the Cop that is out there. Don't try to counter claim yet, right now you are one of the most important roles and counter claiming is going to leave the town in a very bad position.

"What this actually translates as"
 
I don't want to counterclaim because it's way too obvious and none of my scumbuddies want to either

Also notice how CTurtle says with certainty that "the Cop that IS out there". From his perspective, he shouldn't know if the Cop is out there because one of the three dead could have been Cop. But he knows that's not the case because he knows that I'm the Cop. Because he's Mafia.


"CTurtle"
 
After these messages which give me the impression that you're mafia I'm beginning to reconsider Lupins allegiance but who knows, maybe he was willing to take it for the team.

He says that my messages give him the "impression" that I'm Mafia. Unless he's planning to claim "Oh I must be Miller!" (which I sincerely doubt considering he went straight into voting for me), I should 100% be Mafia in his mind. But he knows I'm not Mafia... because he is.

I'm extremely uneasy with your vote on Lupin in that basically you left it there the whole game then, after seeing that your vote would lynch him, still kept it there despite barely commenting on him for the entire day. In fact, the only comment you made on him after your "random" vote was that you don't feel suspicious of him! The rest of your posts throughout the day don't mention him at all and only focus on other players then you're okay to watch somebody die? The reason you felt okay watching Lupin die (despite contributing nothing to the discussion surrounding him) was likely because you felt okay with anybody dying as long as it wasn't Mafia. I still am holding onto the chance that you bussed him but you posted after BP posted the correct vote tallies and were still okay with him dying which leads me to believe that you lynched an innocent Townie.
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AN2
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Cturtle - "After this message I can confirm that Skarfelt is in fact mafia"
What about that message confirms that Skarfelt is Mafia? Im suspicious of him myself don't get me wrong, but nothing he said in that message confirms him as Mafia. Unless there's something I'm missing and you want to elaborate?
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CTurtle
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Skarfelt
Dec 12 2016, 09:43 PM
"CTurtle"
 
I do want to say one thing to the Cop that is out there. Don't try to counter claim yet, right now you are one of the most important roles and counter claiming is going to leave the town in a very bad position.

"What this actually translates as"
 
I don't want to counterclaim because it's way too obvious and none of my scumbuddies want to either

Also notice how CTurtle says with certainty that "the Cop that IS out there". From his perspective, he shouldn't know if the Cop is out there because one of the three dead could have been Cop. But he knows that's not the case because he knows that I'm the Cop. Because he's Mafia.
Except that the mafia doesn't get notifications of a players power role. Or at least I think so.

@EOE does the mafia get to see the role of players killed by the mafia
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Skarfelt
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Lemme re-clarify my message cuz it seems like you missed my point.

Basically, before my claim, the players as a whole had no idea if the Cop was alive. From your perspective, I should be Mafia so you still shouldn't know if the Cop is out there but you wrote with certainty that he definitely is. You wrote like this because you do know that the Cop is alive because it's me.
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blue_persil
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Whether Skarfelt is telling the truth or not, both Kerbykong and Cturtle voted for Lupin. So at least one mafia player voted for Lupin. They may have been bussing him but that seems kind of risky to me in a game with a lot of power roles.

We shouldn't be too hasty with our votes. If the vigilante is still alive we have the chance to take out two mafia members today.

Are we allowed to PM each other? If so, then if we end up believing that Skarfelt is the cop I think the power roles that are still alive should message him any useful information.
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Skarfelt
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Outside communication is allowed so I messaged kerbykong Day 1 to tell him he came up Innocent.
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CTurtle
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AN2
Dec 12 2016, 09:45 PM
Cturtle - "After this message I can confirm that Skarfelt is in fact mafia"
What about that message confirms that Skarfelt is Mafia? Im suspicious of him myself don't get me wrong, but nothing he said in that message confirms him as Mafia. Unless there's something I'm missing and you want to elaborate?
Skarfelts is hoping to kill me right now but his 2nd goal is to force me to reveal any potential power role I have. If I happen to be an important role such as Cop, Doc or Tracker and I have to use that to confirm that I am town, then even if I don't die, the mafia are fully aware of what my role is.

Also I don't think there is any Cop who would reveal their role this early in the game. All he got was one red name which has a twenty precent chance of being miller. Revealing your role will always put the player at a disadvantage and revealing your role on as early as Night two means that it the doc would probably die the next night unless the doc would try to heal, in which case the mafia would just target someone else. Wouldn't it be better to try and find at least two mafia before revealing your role, at least that way there is a one hundred percent chance of killing the mafia. Because then if you kill the miller you could then take out the other revealed player. That is the third biggest reason why I think that Skarfelt is mafia.

The 2nd biggest reason is my correlation with the death of Jeshter. Both me and Jeshter have been going against Jonty quite a bit on Day one but as we all know Jeshter died. While I would have thought they would have done it to use him as a red herring, the turning point for this was how the first message in this thread is Jontys laser point focus on me. I was one of the main people to support Josh and Josh while suspicious of me, did have some form of trust in me. Josh has a lot more trust from the town than I have, so killing the more trustworthy person and dealing with the more scummy person in the night phase seems to be the idea.

It's important also to be aware of how Jonty is going to play if I die today. From what I can tell, he's constantly beating down any of my potential points before they can form into anything more, any counterpoint will be shut down as quickly important. Putting Jonty into question is really important right now. Numerous people, including Josh were calling out Jonty for how much control he was taking over the town and in the same manor he quickly made short posts to try and shut down the argument. This is a serious threat to the town right now.

I need you all to compare Skarfelts behaviour so you too can see what is going on here. That's all I'll right for now, there is a lot of information to take in but I feel these chunky posts should slow Skarfelt down.
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blue_persil
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Skarfelt
Dec 12 2016, 10:16 PM
Outside communication is allowed so I messaged kerbykong Day 1 to tell him he came up Innocent.
Seems like you were quite suspicious of Cturtle on Day 1. Were you more suspicious of Lupin? You kept your vote on me and Kerbykong made the deciding vote for Lupin. Between you two you could have lynched Cturtle on day 1 and then investigated someone else night 2.
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blue_persil
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CTurtle
Dec 12 2016, 10:17 PM
AN2
Dec 12 2016, 09:45 PM
Cturtle - "After this message I can confirm that Skarfelt is in fact mafia"
What about that message confirms that Skarfelt is Mafia? Im suspicious of him myself don't get me wrong, but nothing he said in that message confirms him as Mafia. Unless there's something I'm missing and you want to elaborate?
Skarfelts is hoping to kill me right now but his 2nd goal is to force me to reveal any potential power role I have. If I happen to be an important role such as Cop, Doc or Tracker and I have to use that to confirm that I am town, then even if I don't die, the mafia are fully aware of what my role is.

Also I don't think there is any Cop who would reveal their role this early in the game. All he got was one red name which has a twenty precent chance of being miller. Revealing your role will always put the player at a disadvantage and revealing your role on as early as Night two means that it the doc would probably die the next night unless the doc would try to heal, in which case the mafia would just target someone else. Wouldn't it be better to try and find at least two mafia before revealing your role, at least that way there is a one hundred percent chance of killing the mafia. Because then if you kill the miller you could then take out the other revealed player. That is the third biggest reason why I think that Skarfelt is mafia.

The 2nd biggest reason is my correlation with the death of Jeshter. Both me and Jeshter have been going against Jonty quite a bit on Day one but as we all know Jeshter died. While I would have thought they would have done it to use him as a red herring, the turning point for this was how the first message in this thread is Jontys laser point focus on me. I was one of the main people to support Josh and Josh while suspicious of me, did have some form of trust in me. Josh has a lot more trust from the town than I have, so killing the more trustworthy person and dealing with the more scummy person in the night phase seems to be the idea.

It's important also to be aware of how Jonty is going to play if I die today. From what I can tell, he's constantly beating down any of my potential points before they can form into anything more, any counterpoint will be shut down as quickly important. Putting Jonty into question is really important right now. Numerous people, including Josh were calling out Jonty for how much control he was taking over the town and in the same manor he quickly made short posts to try and shut down the argument. This is a serious threat to the town right now.

I need you all to compare Skarfelts behaviour so you too can see what is going on here. That's all I'll right for now, there is a lot of information to take in but I feel these chunky posts should slow Skarfelt down.
Also, even though we're early in the game we're probably in a lynch or lose situation. Makes sense to be identifying mafia now.
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EOE
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CTurtle
Dec 12 2016, 09:47 PM
@EOE does the mafia get to see the role of players killed by the mafia
No.
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blue_persil
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If the cop is alive and is not Skarfelt, I think that they should message Cturtle and give him the information they know. As far as I can tell, in this scenario Cturtle is a confirmed innocent to the cop. What do others think?
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Skarfelt
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Pretty sure CTurtle just accidentally scumslipped (basically revealing he's Mafia). Lemme go through this last post with the things that are wrong in it.

"CTurtle"
 
Also I don't think there is any Cop who would reveal their role this early in the game.

If we mislynch today, we could lose the game. We could be four town vs four Mafia right now. Indeed, even if we lynch correctly (read: lynch you) today, we risk the Charismatic Villager dying overnight and still losing assuming we're 4v4. By all accounts, as of right now there are two very obvious choices for Town to decide on as opposed to trying to pick from eight. There is no reason for an investigative role with a guilty to not claim at this point.

"CTurtle"
 
Wouldn't it be better to try and find at least two mafia before revealing your role, at least that way there is a one hundred percent chance of killing the mafia. Because then if you kill the miller you could then take out the other revealed player. That is the third biggest reason why I think that Skarfelt is mafia.

...

It's important also to be aware of how Jonty is going to play if I die today.


This is the slip I was talking about. This post is written as if there are three Mafia remaining. As of right now, we do not know how many Mafia there are remaining and should, IMO, be playing as if we're against four. The point is, though, that we do not know how many there are remaining. The only people who know how many Mafia are alive are, of course, the Mafia. CTurtle's entire post is written from the perspective of somebody with the knowledge that only three Mafia remain. This must mean that either Vig shot and hit a Maf member or Lupin was Maf and CTurtle bussed him... both things I find very hard to believe but with my guilty here saying that there's only three Mafia, it's a conclusion I must draw.

"CTurtle"
 
It's important also to be aware of how Jonty is going to play if I die today. From what I can tell, he's constantly beating down any of my potential points before they can form into anything more, any counterpoint will be shut down as quickly important. Putting Jonty into question is really important right now. Numerous people, including Josh were calling out Jonty for how much control he was taking over the town and in the same manor he quickly made short posts to try and shut down the argument. This is a serious threat to the town right now.

I need you all to compare Skarfelts behaviour so you too can see what is going on here. That's all I'll right for now, there is a lot of information to take in but I feel these chunky posts should slow Skarfelt down.

Do you know why I'm able to post so quickly to shut things down? Because I don't have to think about lying. When the topic is something I am absolutely certain about, of course I can respond quickly and dismantle it. Hence I've replied through all of Day 1 to answer questions like Jeshter asking what the point of Night 1 kill was. It's also why I shut down the absolutely absurd vote against me from Lupin saying "I haven't seen Skarfelt defend himself because he's had nothing to defend from" - I know I'm Town so it's not ahrd to argue why. And it's also why I keep dismantling all your posts on this page to point out how you're Mafia - I know you're Mafia so it's not hard to argue why.

Also, before somebody says "he just misread", it was brought up in the thread yesterday because Jeshter already made that same mistake. So, even if you believe it was a mistake to not read the role list, we still have a player here who's telling Town to withhold information while also not reading the thread. Not exactly brilliant.

"Blue Persil"
 
Seems like you were quite suspicious of Cturtle on Day 1. Were you more suspicious of Lupin? You kept your vote on me and Kerbykong made the deciding vote for Lupin. Between you two you could have lynched Cturtle on day 1 and then investigated someone else night 2.

I assume you misread the final vote count;

DAY 1 FINAL VOTE COUNT
Lupin-3 (AN2, CTurtle, Kerbykong)
Verdant-2 (Fighta, Jesh)
Blue Persil-1 (Colly)
Skarfelt-1 (Blue Persil)
Kerbykong-1 (Verdant)
AN2-1 (Skarfelt)
Cturtle-1 (Lupin)

You were voting for me, not the other way around. I was voting for AN2. I was away at Mint/Way's house after Christmas Carnage on Sunday and thus didn't post at all following Post #64 where I said I was happy with my vote on AN2. At the time I said that, Kerbykong was voting you and then swapped his vote to Lupin without me saying anything. Lupin was pretty suspicious, though - if not for CTurtle flipping scum on my report, I would have been ready to believe that we hit scum yesterday. With his slip further up, it's still very possible we did hit scum yesterday.
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kerbykong
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Okay, so I'll start by saying that Jonty did indeed message me come the beginning of day 1 to declare innocence on me. I'm going to go right ahead and say his claim is possible from my perspective. He addressed his intentions very clearly in the first few messages and asked me to claim my role to him (which I was very sceptical of) and so I ended up giving him a false power role claim in order to see if I would be hooked by the maf, or even killed by them.
Upon reflection, it wasn't the wisest thing to do but I figured I trusted him enough after he explained to me that he had left (albeit vague) breadcrumbs leading up to his claim. Once I hear more from town, I'll decide on whether or not I should continue to speak with Skarfelt outside of the thread, but seeing as nothing has happened to me I think I may be on the right track trusting him.

I think it's pretty much a given that the night kill last night was the mafia and not the vigilante. It'd have to have been a very inexperienced vigi to shoot Jesh, as he showed very little indication of being mafia. From this I also believe that Superchar was actually the vigilante, as Verdant would have been a prime example of a vig's target (and Jesh seemed adamant about his suspicions of him, so I would have imagined a shooting there). There's so little information let out by Verdant that I can't possibly vouch for him though, so let it be known I do have my suspicions of him being 1 of the 3 or 4 mafia members. This is all but dependent on whether or not the hooker is alive too, and who the mafia chose to rb if they are/were. From this, I'm guessing that at least 1 power role is dead. It should also be noted that it was impossible for Jesh or Fighta to be the charismatic villager as either of their votes on Verdant would would have caused a tie, so there's that to work with. And seeing as mafia has not already won, the Charismatic villager must be alive.

Despite my vote on Lupin, I'm coming into today feeling like I was the deciding vote on lynching a townie after the evidence that's been brought forward. I think I fell into the personal quarrel of Anto and Lupin and chose the wrong side. Anto's suspicious behaviour coupled with the information brought forward today makes me unsettled about the other two votes on Lupin. Anto's sparse contributions, and the timing of them, can also be attributed to both him and Cturtle being scum. The red seer claim really brought into question Cturtle's township, along with him making assumptions about the roles that are left rather than seeming open to the variables. I'm going to put my vote onto Cturtle for now. His only defense was refuting Skarfelt and not offering any information that he may have gathered from his own role (as it's pretty obvious he is not claiming the possibility of being the miller). I realise that if he is truly town he won't want to prove it by putting a target onto his head, but just by the sheer suggestion alone that he is not VT, he has already done so. A mislynch today would be horrible so we really need some info from you Cturtle, because the "trust me not him" isn't working for me.

VOTE: Cturtle
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kerbykong
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kerbykong
Dec 13 2016, 01:19 AM
Anto's sparse contributions, and the timing of them, can also be attributed to both him and Cturtle being scum.
Sorry, I didn't elaborate too much on this. Basically, one of a handful of An2's posts seemed like he was reminded to post after Skarfelt had made his second post of this DP. It also looks like a "hey, give me a bit of backup here" or "set me up for a chance to elaborate a response without seeming defensive".

This can also be seen in day 1 as An2's vote for Lupin came just 10 minutes after Cturtle's post. His only post on the first two pages of DP 1 that doesn't seem like it comes directly after one of Cturtle's is just a sentence explaining why he hasn't been posting much.
"I may not have been posting to much but that's cause o haven't been online, unlike other people who aren't posting yet are reading through the conversations. Also I haven't posted much yet cause it's day 1 and there's not too much to go on atm"

This was later recycled by Verdant as his excuse for inactivity also, which could well mean that they are in cahoots in the shadows.
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CTurtle
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kerbykong
Dec 13 2016, 01:19 AM
I realise that if he is truly town he won't want to prove it by putting a target onto his head, but just by the sheer suggestion alone that he is not VT, he has already done so. A mislynch today would be horrible so we really need some info from you Cturtle, because the "trust me not him" isn't working for me.

VOTE: Cturtle
There is a bread crumb I have left in at least one message I have posted It's pretty subtle. I will reveal my role at 20:00 if you don't figure it out But for now I want to keep my role as well hidden from the mafia. Best of luck.
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Verdant
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VOTE Cturtle
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AN2
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AN2
Dec 12 2016, 09:45 PM
Cturtle - "After this message I can confirm that Skarfelt is in fact mafia"
What about that message confirms that Skarfelt is Mafia? Im suspicious of him myself don't get me wrong, but nothing he said in that message confirms him as Mafia. Unless there's something I'm missing and you want to elaborate?
While this isn't a whole lot to prove that I'm not in cahoots with cturtle ,it does show me questioning his arguments and being slightly suspicious of him. Which I wouldn't do if I had ties with him. This post could also be seen as a post to allow him to further his point, but the later is not the case. Since then my suspicions of cturtle have only grown as I've seen no signs of a good defense from him which is why my vote for now is being placed on the young cturtle.
VOTE: Cturtle
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Fighta
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Vote: CTurtle

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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CTurtle
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Fuck
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EOE
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CTurtle has been insta'd.

Mafia wins!
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