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| this makes no sense to me | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:51 pm (256 Views) | |
| Geofari | Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:51 pm Post #1 |
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Level 13
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you start out with 3 doors behind them are 2 goats and a car the car is placed randomly a guy comes by and opens one door its a goat the car has not moved you can change your choice between the 2 doors left are your chances now 50/50 or 66/33? |
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| AsSaSsiN | Tue Apr 1, 2008 12:06 am Post #2 |
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Level 29
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someone saw 21 over the weekend |
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| Geofari | Tue Apr 1, 2008 12:14 am Post #3 |
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Level 13
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i didnt my friend was trying to explain it to me and i just cant understand how its possibly 66/33!!!!!! |
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| FaZ- | Tue Apr 1, 2008 12:15 am Post #4 |
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Level 39
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33% chance if you don't change doors. 50% chance if you do. Classic statistics problem that baffles many very intelligent people at first notice. It's known as the "Let's Make a Deal" problem to me. Thanks Monty Hall? |
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| MaKsU | Tue Apr 1, 2008 12:23 am Post #5 |
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Level 11
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i remember this from 21 i dont really understand either <.< |
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| Sarge | Tue Apr 1, 2008 12:34 am Post #6 |
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Hacker Hunter
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The classic trick to this is that the problem usually involves 'you choose again', and they don't say between the 2 remaining doors. then the chance would still be 33/66 to get the car, technically. If you throw in the words, 'between the 2 remaining doors', it becomes 50/50. |
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| TeaLaGe | Tue Apr 1, 2008 12:55 am Post #7 |
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Level 50
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hmm, let me try to explain. You choose door 1. The host would have to choose either door 2 or 3. that would reveal one of the goats. That would mean there is a 50/50 chance that you would get the car. The game host then says would u either stick with your choice or change it. Assuming that A. you dont change your answer, and you stick with it. it would be d133/d266 because he doesnt says that it's whether to choose to choose between "the two doors" It's like he's trying to get you to change your answer.. door 1 = 33% door 2 = 66% but really it's actually 66/33 // so if u sticked with your answer you would get the car.. oh btw. they cant switch it. That would be absurd to move the car and the goats around. B. You change your answer and you choose D2. That would mean that you believe it's going to be in D2 but really it's d1-66%/d2-33% so you don't get the car. ---------------- now unless the game host manage to be able to move the cars and goats around..... If You choose door 2 - the gamehost would have to show one of the goats. That would mean the game host would have to choose one of the doors leading to a goat, assuming he chooses door 3, and there's a goat in it, the game host would try to deceive you by saying "would you like to stick with your answer or change it" then it could be d133/d266. Whatever some bullshit. idk, i probably got it wrong but it was fun. i know how to figure it out but cant explain :/ ----------------- "you start out with 3 doors behind them are 2 goats and a car the car is placed randomly a guy comes by and opens one door its a goat the car has not moved you can change your choice between the 2 doors left are your chances now 50/50 or 66/33?" ----------------- Ah.. now i see, you havent picked a door yet. You gotta pick a door and stick with it and wait till the gamehost choose which door to deceive you with, then the whole equation works. --- The game host chooses door 3. since "2 doors left" that would mean you choosed door 1. yes 66/33 is correct. Bullshit gamehost. to sum it all up.. A. Host choose door 3. B. You choose door 1 C. He says 66/33 or 50/50 D. You stick with it because he's the gamehost who wont let you win the damn prize. E. D166 D233. F. If there are more then one doors.. or the goats and cars move around..then hard.. -------------------- There are many variations of this crap, are you sure you arent missing out any details? |
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| AsSaSsiN | Tue Apr 1, 2008 1:40 am Post #8 |
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Level 29
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.. lol (in the movie this is what happens) Guy picks door one, and host says number 3's a goat, he then asks if he would like to switch his pick to door #2 the guy says yes because now his odd's are 66/33 if he picks door 2, so he picks door 2 and wins the car. |
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| Gam3dbz | Tue Apr 1, 2008 11:56 pm Post #9 |
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Level 7
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isnt the question why its 66% and not 50%? thanks for clarifying the situation though |
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| TeaLaGe | Wed Apr 2, 2008 12:20 am Post #10 |
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Level 50
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the only explanation i got is The show host doesnt want the player to get the car. |
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| Geofari | Wed Apr 2, 2008 12:28 am Post #11 |
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Level 13
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i would add on that its a psychological thing the contestant would doubt his/her choice after one is revealed incorrect |
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| Lintendo | Wed Apr 2, 2008 1:13 am Post #12 |
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Level 5
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Lets assume that door A is the winning door, looking at all possible scenarios first we'll look at if we don't change our answers. Pick Door A, Host opens B or C doesn't matter which, You keep your door you Win. Pick Door B, Host opens C, You keep your door, you Lose Pick Door C, Host opens B, you keep the door, you Lose. So there u have a 33% of winning on not changing doors. Now we look at what happens if u change your answer each time Pick Door A, Host opens B or C, You change doors, you Lose Pick Door B, Host opens C, you change doors, you Win Pick Door C, Host opens B, you change doors, you Win now u have a 66% chance if u go for the door you didn't pick in the beggining. Hope that helps |
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| TeaLaGe | Wed Apr 2, 2008 1:46 am Post #13 |
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Level 50
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oh boy. u got all the answers from wikipedia. cheater. |
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| Hanabito | Wed Apr 2, 2008 2:21 am Post #14 |
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Level 26
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nice sig tealage lol |
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| TeaLaGe | Wed Apr 2, 2008 2:26 am Post #15 |
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Level 50
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ownt u hard. |
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| Lintendo | Wed Apr 2, 2008 2:39 am Post #16 |
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Level 5
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haha no ididn't, i wrote that wikipedia page! haah jk, but relaly, ididn't get it from wikipedia, u just think of all the possible answers and tahts what u get |
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| Hanabito | Wed Apr 2, 2008 2:40 am Post #17 |
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Level 26
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i spammed out so hard he quit forums |
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| TeaLaGe | Wed Apr 2, 2008 3:43 am Post #18 |
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Level 50
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lol |
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| DeMaGoG | Thu Apr 3, 2008 12:00 am Post #19 |
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Level 23
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Darn Lintendo, you beat me to the explanation :( |
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