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Challenge 2; Spheally Spheally
Topic Started: Jan 7 2016, 02:32:24 PM (439 Views)
Spheal
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The art of the Spheal
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{Challenge 02} will begin Friday, January 8, at 4 p.m. GMT-5 {EST}. While not live, the deadlines will be slightly demanding in order to finish the challenge at a reasonable pace. All non-{Vien} tribes must have a player sit out.
Okay! This seems to have a few deadlines wrapped up within the challenge.

Anyone have a burning desire or need to sit this one out?
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Banette
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Yeah, Spheal, basically special reward (which I promise to share with everyone should it be just given to me - if it can't be I'll use it for the team not for myself), and also because it spreads us out more.
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
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Spheal
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Fair enough. I like your determination and promise.
I'll admit the other cloisters are more boring anyways.

I'd likely go for cluster D. It's the obvious, unoriginal one so expect it to be less popular in the more experimental 1st round.
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Machoke
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I'm just not sure it's worth the gamble. There are 20 people, I'd guess someone else would take the risk.
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Spheal
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Machop
Jan 8 2016, 03:30:56 PM
I'm just not sure it's worth the gamble. There are 20 people, I'd guess someone else would take the risk.
I think spreading our eggs between the most and least risky baskets (A & D) has some sense to it.

maybe put 1 in B and 2 in C or 2 in C and 1 in B. Middle of the road I can see being more popular for lukewarms
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Banette
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I have a feeling people will steer clear initially. I don't really have a reason as to why.

The thing that has me though is:
Last time we all targeted Vien, and the odds of us all doing that by chance are tiny. So clearly we all think similarly to have all gone for the most active. Given the fact that we all played optimally, it makes sense that everyone would follow a mathematically optimal division across all of the Cloisters. And I highly doubt those would include Cloister A
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Spheal
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I agree with shuppet

going for Cluster A 1st round seems like overkill and other tribes I expect would be more sneaky and try to pounce R2. If it pays off we'll most likely win too.
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Banette
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I'll let the others have input first, but Machop's concern is something that I can understand.
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Gastly
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If it helps your decision, I read the rules and decided that I wanted to try A because everyone would likely panic and not go near it first round.

I'm not saying you shouldn't do it Shuppet, but I highly doubt other tribes aren't thinking the same thing you are.

I also imagine everyone will be spreading out their numbers too so assuming everyone went 1:1:1:2 which is the most spread out you can be and safest, that leaves us with 4:4:4:8 total.

That would pop A/B. This is just my guess of what people do. I would like to pick C/D personally.
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Spheal
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I think A,B,C,C,D would be a safe and solid combination.

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Banette
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Assuming everyone does two on D it will stay. The question is, will a team throw extras on just to tip it?

Probably not.

Assuming Gastly is correct, that means we could get away with cutting A or B and doubling on C and D. Four teams, if we go two on C it'll still float, and another team can also decide to put two on C safely.
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Gastly
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Hmm.... do you think any tribe would put 3 Ds in? Even if they did, we would have to get 10 votes to pop D meaning two tribes would have to put in 3 while the others put in 2. Hell, we are discussing putting in 1 which means the other tribes get even more leeway. Either way, a cloister is popping so we have to try and predict which one it is.

Honestly, I think it will be A and maybe B. 3 people can go in B, thats it. So one tribe can't put anything into B.

Shuppet should go for A just because you never know. I guess one person should go B too just because if it pops, we likely take one from every tribe with us anyways so it evens out. I don't recommend two in C because we could be the one that pops it and lose those extra two. If we put 2 in D, then we likely aren't losing out in numbers because 2 will be the average.
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Gastly
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I think the team that gets ahead this first round will the be team that plays the numbers. So it would like like

0:1:2:2

If B/D pop, we lose as much as everyone else. If C pops, we fall behind a person. If A pops, we go ahead a person. Realistically, A should pop. If it doesn't, then the team that submitted there is ahead. The alternative list is

1:1:1:2

Hoping that no one submits to A. If they do, then we likely don't lose anything but we won't be gaining ground either.
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Spheal
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I'm going to have to head off shortly and won't be back until shortly after deadline.

Will finalise D in my confessional seeing as we want at least one there. That can be me so feel free to continue the strat chat! I'm fine with another player or two in D with me but still like the idea of at least one of us in each cluster.

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Gastly
Jan 8 2016, 03:52:38 PM
then we likely don't lose anything but we won't be gaining ground either.
which is fine as we only need to not come last i.e. don't fall behind.
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Banette
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Oh, 2 of us are in D definitely. There is no reason not to unless someone piles in all of their team at which point it doesn't matter because they lost. Maybe a third? But if we don't have two in D we're just losing.

Going on B and it sinking penalises everyone equally, because for it to sink we would all have had to put one person there. There is no reason to risk sending two. If someone on another team decides to avoid it then we survive instead - which is also good.

One on B is a definite (I think), and so is two on D.
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Gastly
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Yes I agree, we should have one in each. Having 1 in B and it popping meant every other tribe put 1 in. I guess one tribe could have put 2 but no one will realistically do that.

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Banette
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Well I sure got Ninja'd
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Banette
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So, the question is:

Do we prefer option 1-1-1-2 or 0-1-2-2

Machop seemed to be keen on 0-1-2-2 (or at least, not on A)
I wanna try for 1-1-1-2

What do others prefer, looking at the pros and cons of each.
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Machoke
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I can see your logic for going to A. Let's do that then.

I almost feel like 1-0-2-2 would be ideal since if more than three people go for B we all wipe out.
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Gastly
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I guess what Spheal says is true and 1:1:1:2 is the safest option that almost guarantees us breaking even.

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