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Challenge 2; Spheally Spheally
Topic Started: Jan 7 2016, 02:32:24 PM (438 Views)
Spheal
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The art of the Spheal
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{Challenge 02} will begin Friday, January 8, at 4 p.m. GMT-5 {EST}. While not live, the deadlines will be slightly demanding in order to finish the challenge at a reasonable pace. All non-{Vien} tribes must have a player sit out.
Okay! This seems to have a few deadlines wrapped up within the challenge.

Anyone have a burning desire or need to sit this one out?
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Gastly
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The other option just gives us a chance of pulling ahead and then going for breaking even after that.

I'd rather not lose then win though.
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Banette
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If it's safety we want, 1:1:1:2 strikes me as optimal.

1:0:2:2 is going to pull us ahead, unless people do steer clear of A. Because if they do decide to stay off A they're going to have to go into C or D to keep afloat.
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Spheal
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have submitted D

Personal preference is 1112 but think there's so much wifom in this challenge I'm overall indifferent
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Gastly
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I will submit D as well.
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Banette
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Okay, two of you are on D.

I'll submit A now.

Machop, you can choose whether you want B or C, and then Zorua will fill the remaining when he gets here.

This all good?
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Machoke
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Yup. I'll go on C.
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Spheal
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@mod: after player elimination can we still contribute to discussion here or does that completely cease?
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Zoroark
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zorry not zorry
im good for b. also zorry for being late, shit came up unexpectedly.
To protect themselves from danger, they hide their true identities by transforming into people and Pokémon.
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Banette
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But your zig zays you're not zorry?

But nah, really, it's all good. We've got time.
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Sylveon
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Spheal
Jan 8 2016, 04:34:17 PM
@mod: after player elimination can we still contribute to discussion here or does that completely cease?
You can no longer discuss the challenge with your tribe once you are eliminated.
A doll that became a Pokémon over its grudge of being thrown away. It seeks the child who disowned it.
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Machoke
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If I survive the round I will only wake up right before deadline. So you guys should just tell me where to go and I'll comply.
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Banette
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If I survive I will do so. Though I may well end up swimming with the goldeens.
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Banette
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The treasure map is ours!

Spooktacular!
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Banette
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I am willing to bet my spookiness that another part of this map is in Secret Meadow.
Edited by Banette, Jan 8 2016, 10:32:56 PM.
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Banette
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Onto the rest of the challenge:

Zorua RIP
Machop RIP

Everyone avoided A it seems.

And we're now up by one.

Three of us, four cloisters.

One in C, one in D.

A is going to have someone go into it because if it's A or B, A has a potential to get you a bonus.

Thoughts?
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Banette
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We can go across three, everyone else will go across two.

No other tribe will risk putting both people in the same cloister.

D is guaranteed to be safe. Everybody knows this. So we'll just ignore it while counting.

C will be maybe safe. I think people will run for A or B, but if not we kill two people at least by going onto it.

One of our extras will have to go to A or B. I say go back to A so nobody else gets the map.
Edited by Banette, Jan 8 2016, 10:55:40 PM.
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Banette
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I don't see another way of playing this than 1/0-1/0-1-1, if we want to keep playing optimal safety then that'd be the way to go.
1/1/0/1 might work but I don't want to risk it as it allows too real a possibility for one of the others to not lose anyone on C.
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Gastly
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Here, thinking about the math of it.

Also well done guys!
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Banette
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Yeah, the maths is really your area.
Vaporeon
 
{Shuppet} spooks into #12 with {18 Pts} (5 + 9 + 4)
Mods confirm that Shuppet is indeed spooky.
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Gastly
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So yes, everyone will put one into D.

So there are 5 votes that will be split between the first 3. If we go into C and it pops, that means only one tribe has the potential of not losing a member. It is then a 50/50 on if we hit that person with A/B. If C doesn't pop and we have one there, then we stay in the lead but tied with a different tribe.

This is just wifom at this point of will we be in A or B. One offers a reward but a reward that we probably already have at this point. The wifom kinda says that people would avoid A still out of fear meaning B might become appealing.

I think the safest option is 0-1-1-1. Worst possible outcome is that everyone submits 0-2-3-4 and then we are all tied at 4 members left.

Best possible outcome is 2-1-2-4 and we stay ahead 3 to everyones 1 or 2 members left.

Most likely outcome 1-2-2-4 meaning we are ahead 2 (tied with another team) and the other two teams are at 1.


The only question we need to ask now is who do we trust to be on the D spot for our final round? It likely won't make much of a difference as it will just be a random guess.
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