| 1968 election - What if Humphrey released the tapes? | |
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| Topic Started: Yesterday, 10:31 PM (11 Views) | |
| Soopairik | Yesterday, 10:31 PM Post #1 |
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In the 1968 election campaigns, LBJ apparently wiretapped Nixon and found out Nixon was committing treason against his own country. Why LBJ did not release the tapes is still up to debate, but Hubert Humphrey, LBJ's VP knew about it and later admitted he regretted not releasing the tapes to the public. So what if Humphrey DID release the tapes to the public? What would happen? Today we'll find out in this hypothetical scenario of mine. Here is proof LBJ wiretapped Nixon and it turned out Nixon committed treason. https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/60446 https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-21768668 Initially, Humphrey was losing in the polls, often by double digits. It wasn't until the last two months he started catching up. In terms of the electoral vote, Nixon won by a landslide but in terms of the popular vote, it was extremely close. Humphrey only lost by 0,7%, and Nixon himself admitted that if the election had just taken a week later, he would've lost. So let's say three weeks before the actual election night, Humphrey release the tapes of Nixon. What happens next? Well, first off, BOTH the DNC and GOP would fall into major chaos. Both LBJ and Nixon would most likely go to jail, for different reasons. LBJ would go to jail for wiretapping though he would most likely be released. Nixon would most likely go to jail for life. In addition, committing treason is way worse than wiretapping a criminal. So while both parties would face major scrutiny, I feel like the DNC would be in a slightly better position. Since Nixon is now in jail, Spiro Agnew takes the new position of the Republican nominee. Due to both parties being in disarray and the major third party candidate being a racist scumbag with little support outside of the South, political participation would drop sharply. Due to the scandals now taking place, many Democrats and Republicans are now being investigated, though most would probably be innocent and only "guilty" through association. Despite this, many people are unwilling to turn to George Wallace as an alternative considering he was pro-segregation and lacked support outside of the South. Because people do not want to vote for all three candidates, the political participation, like I've said earlier, would drop heavily. One of the main reasons why Humphrey started gaining on Nixon during the last two months was because of the collapse of the George Wallace campaign. Wallace was able to siphon votes away from Humphrey as he used to be a Democrat, and Wallace ended up attracting many Democrats who opposed civil rights but didn't want to vote Republican either. By attacking Wallace as a racist (which is factually true and Wallace openly supported segregation) Humphrey started stealing votes from Wallace and caught up to Nixon in the polls. https://news.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx#4 As you can see if you click on the link, a big part of the reason why Humphrey started catching up in the polls was due to the collapse of George Wallace. Keep in mind though, that although Wallace stole votes from Humphrey during the campaign and vice versa, Humphrey himself was a strong supporter of civil rights. Yes, they used to be part of the same party but in the 1960's political ideologies and parties were less divided. Anyway, thanks to the scandals taking place, I feel like Wallace would gain some more votes, but still lack any significant support outside of the South. Humphrey would be able to edge out a slight lead in the polls against Agnew, and the gap would slowly increase as time went on. In the real world, the 1968 election had... -a 61% turnout rate. -Nixon winning 43.4% of the popular vote, followed by Humphrey with 42.7%, Wallace with 13.5%, and the remaining 0.4% going to other candidates. And the Electoral Map looked like this. https://www.270towin.com/1968_Election/ But in this hypothetical scenario... -a 45% turnout rate, and I'm being generous. -Humphrey winning 41.2% of the vote, followed by Agnew with 31.2%, Wallace with 27%, with the remaining 0.6% going to other candidates. And the Electoral Map would look like this. ![]() Nixon would barely get any more electoral votes than Wallace who would sweep the South. Humphrey would win the election, but his initial approval rate would be a lousy 40-45%, with most people only voting him because of their hatred for the only two candidates. So while Humphrey did win by a landslide, his landslide victory was achieved through many scandals. For the first year, it is unlikely Humphrey would be able to get much done, with Congress refusing to work with a president involved in several scandals, even though Humphrey was never the one who actually wiretapped. Spiro Agnew and Humphrey would both most likely be investigated, with Agnew going to jail as in real life he did ended up getting fined for corruption among other things. This would further break the GOP, with many now looking for third parties and Independents. After the first year, Humphrey is able to get work done by ending the Vietnam War and improving on LBJ's work of domestic policy. Now that there are no more major foreign policy issues, the US is at relative ease again. While Humphrey's civil rights laws would further lose him support among the South, his support among minorities and the younger generations would increase. Now whether or not Humphrey would able to win re-election in 1972 is up for debate... |
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| starman | Today, 1:34 AM Post #2 |
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Maybe Wallace would win, lol. |
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| Soopairik | Today, 9:07 AM Post #3 |
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He had very little support outside of the South, doubt it. |
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