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Ethiopian Political Developments
Topic Started: May 2 2008, 08:55 PM (367 Views)
Ethiopia
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Over the past two months, the Ethiopian Transitional Government has been discussing numerous policy objectives and other issues.

The budget for fiscal year 1949 has been released. The original budget was drawn up under the premise of 10% growth. Swedish aid has also been rolled over for fiscal year 1950. This has resulted in a $212,000,000 budget surplus.

Numerous budget inflows will be gone for fiscal year 1950. Including the Ogaden oil sales, as well as the $57,500,000 reperations. So the remaining surplus from 1949 should supplement the 1950 budget nicely.

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There has been much debate concerning the business entities of the government and how they should be operated. Many within the government feel that government meddling within various authorities is hindering efficiency and growth. Both the Ethiopian State Bank as well as the Abyssinian Port Authority are currently operating at operational losses. Administrators within the systems believe they can achieve fiscal solvency with more independence from government intrusion.

As a result, at least the Port Authority and State Banking System will be pushed away from government authority, and given more autonomy to operate. Government ministers will oversea and closely monitor the operations, but administrators and managers will have more ability to control these entities. Profit margins are still going to be closely controlled for at least five years to ensure that prices are kept low for investors, businessmen, and the people. The government has urged administrators to keep profits margins to below 10%.

Administrators from the State Bank believe that they can halve their operational losses by 1950. And break even in 1951 with this new business autonomy.

Each year, these independent entities will independently request government funds for expansion projects from the central government. The government will ultimately have the authority as to how dollars are further spent.

It is believed that the Ministry of Agriculture, Mines and Energy, and Electricity will be spun off from the government for fiscal year 1950.

There is also talk of hiring private contractors for construction projects. Analysis from the Ministry of Economics has concluded that the government could save over 33% annually on their labor contracts, simply by hiring workers through contractors instead of directly hiring. Many within the government feel that laborer's are overpaid.

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The last note is that it has been determined that the Ministry of Justice will officially be incorporated into the government in 1950. This court system will include a Supreme Court Building in Addis Ababa, as well as one regional courthouse in each region.

Further discussions are ongoing in Addis Ababa with Persian and German adivsors concerning the structure of Ministry of Justice.
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Ethiopia
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April 10th, 1949.

The Ethiopian Transitional Government has agreed to offer up legislation to the King involving political parties. The King is expected to summarily authorize it.

The legislation states that political parties of any form may be introduced into the country without censorship, repression, or harassment. Political parties must register with the Ethiopian government in order to officially nominate candidates in future elections. Write-in's will not be accepted in future elections. In order to register as a political party, the party must have 20,000 signatures.
Political parties will have the right to conduct their own nomination processes for national elections.

Governments at the Regional level, woreda level, and kebele level will be allowed to levie their own rules in regards to political elections.

Political parties will be able to register at the national level free of charge.

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For the time being, there will be no foreign investment deals made within the Kingdom. This has nothing to do with animosity or a change of heart within Ethiopia, but due to regions demanding more autonomy over authorization and involvement in foreign investment deals. This legislation stems from anger from some politicians over investment deals being dictated by individuals in Addis Ababa with little regard to native elders, and tribal chiefs and sheiks.

Each region will be having independent votes about allowing foreign investors. There is wide support in numerous region's, so it is not believed that there will be any long term impact on foreign investment.
All projects in Ethiopia have been grandfathered into their contracts and are safe from any new legislation or rules that regions may enact.
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The United States applauds the Democratization and Liberalization under way in Ethiopia.
Signatures are broken...
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Ethiopia
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Over the past few months the Ethiopian government has largely been working on the constitution.

The Ethiopian Government has officially processed the applications of the following parties.

The Ethiopian Union
Tigrayan People's Liberation Front
Oromo People's Democratic Organization
Amhara National Democratic Movement
Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement
Ethiopian Democratic League
All Ethiopian Unity Party
Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front
All-Ethiopia Socialist Movement
Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement
Benishangul-Gumuz People's Democratic Unity Front
Somali People's Democratic Party
Workers' Party of Ethiopia
The Party of Love of Country

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On the front of Ethiopian foreign investment, there have been numerous elections concerning investment.

The Somali Region has held a regional referendum, which was passed by 57 - 40. There have been changes in order to do business in the Somali region. All businesses in the state have been grandfathered into their clauses. The oil deals will not face further taxation. However, any new investments the Somali state will be subject to a 30% corporate tax on profits. This tax will go to the Somali regional state

Representatives in the Harari regional state have passed legislation allowing foreign investment. Foreign investments into this region will be subject to a 10% corporate profit tax. Foreign investors will have to pay a minimum wage of 2 USD/day in the Harari national state.

The Afar, SNNP, Oromo, and the Chartered City of Addis Ababa have passed laws which will authorize tax free investment into these regions at the approval of each region.

The Tigrey, Amhara, and chartered city of Dire Dawa are currently working on foreign investment legislation. All foreign investment in these regions has been halted.

The Beneshengul Gumuz and Gambela regions have widely overturned any foreign investment in their regions. No nations have investments in these regions. No foreign investments will be allowed into these regions unless another referendum is taken.

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Ethiopia
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Debate has been ongoing in Addis Ababa about the constitution for some time now. With particular attention being paid to the court system and the exact function that the House of Elders will hold within the government.

The Amhara and Tigrey regional states are open for business. With both zones levying 7 percent corporate tax rates on all corporate business.

There has been strong discussions with the BMA in Eritrea on how to administer the zone. With many representatives at odds with how the BMA is operating the area.

A tentative timeline has been established in the unifying of Ethiopia with Eritrea. Shortly, Ethiopia will approach the United Nations for its opinion on Eritrea, and request that it administer an independent referendum on whether it should be apart of federated Ethiopîa. A date of approximately mid 1951 is planned for the referendum.

Military officials have been in contact with the BMA to help assist security work and deter piracy along the coast beginning mid 1950. The goal is to work in tandum with British Naval Units in a similar way to the administration of the Ogaden.
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Ethiopia
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With the budget for 1950 set to be released and put into place, there has been an extreme amount of heated debate in regards to educational spending. The government has budgeted some $610,000,000 in educational spending, which is expected to be at least 20% of the budget. Almost half of this funding will go towards construction of new K-12 schools. The debate is raging about whether these schools should even be constructed. Due to the ongoing teachers shortage, none of these schools will be filled with teachers when they are completed. The schools alotted for construction in 1949 will still most likely remain unfulfilled beginning the September 1950-June 1951 school year. Some politicians feel that construction should still take place, and that building the infrastructure is an important first step. While others maintain that it is innefficient use of financial resources to commit such a large sum of money to the construction of schools that must be maintained, and secured, while they remain teacherless and empty. These politicians feel that this money would be better spent on healthcare or economic development projects. Politicians have pointed out there is a need for new airports in Asseb, Masawa, and Arba Minch. Other suggestions are that expansion projects for the ports would be money better spent, as well as rail yards, truck stops, and additional agricultural projects.

The government has decided to purchase 500 Mercedez Bens from Germany for 7.8 million dollars.

The government has agreed to finance $25,000,000 for the 1950 population census. In this census, the government will be examining access to healthcare and education. They will also be surveying people for potential volunteer relocation to different economic development projects. The census will also be taking surveys of peoples education level, willingness to acquire education, and finding out peoples job skills for potential job placement.
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Political battles regarding the budget and educational spending became much more heated. As terms for releasing the budget on time came closer and closer, it was revealed that the government was facing a sharp $150,000,000 budget deficit. For two weeks politicians debated about cutting educational construction spending. Political leaders supporting future construction finally have given into demands to significantly cut spending for the construction of new schools for the 1950 budget year. Construction spending was cut by more than 50% to bring the budget back into line with tax revenue.

The 1950 budget has been officially signed and released by the government and the King.

Debate soon quickly started about the education spending bill for 1951. A majority soon formed which is advocating a complete stoppage to all K-12 school construction until there enough teachers to fill new schools. So there will be no new schools constructed in 1951. And school construction will more than likely be limited in 1952, before brisk expansion continuing in 1953 and 1954.

Instead of K-12 construction, there will be increased funding to vocational schooling programs, agricultural institutes, and expanding the teaching teachers English program. The only primary schools that will be constructed is 5 new Nomad Schools which are to be completed in the Ogaden.
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A plan has been proposed to patriate Sudanese refugees into Ethiopia as temporary citizens. The refugees will be afforded the opportunity to become full citizens within Ethiopia in five years. Participation in the program relies on accepting jobs in Ethiopian development projects. These development projects will be in areas far from the Gambela region where rival tribes present security risks. Refugees who wish to accept this program will be augmented into an Ethiopian State Commune project where they can recieve medical care, education, and adequate food and security as soon as positions are available. Ethiopian officials undertaking the 1950 census will be visiting the three refugee camps to take down names of people willing to participate in the program. Refugees may begin being patriated into Ethiopia as soon as 1951.

Delegates to the transititional federal government have been discussing formulating a national postal service. Investors in the region are complaining about the lack of centralized postal service in the country which is currently provided by disunified private groups that do not extend across the country. Standing up a unified postal service may occur in 1950.

Debate has also come up about sanitation within Ethiopia. The vast majority of the country remains largely unsanitary. As economic productivity has picked up, sanitation has become an acute problem in some areas. Particularly areas of Addis Ababa. Creeks and streams are becoming quite polluted from sewage run off, access to clean water is limited, there is very little sewer system. In fact, Asmara and Masawa are the only areas outside of recent state communal projects and privately financed communal facilities that has a modern sewage system. A minority of delegates believe that sanitation programs should start making their way to the forefront of the budget. The majority of delegates are still behind pouring money into large scale development projects, transportation projects, and education to foster long term growth.
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Over the past few months legislators and delegates with the help of international lawyers and judges have been working steadily along on the constitution. Develop and construction of the constitution is about on schedule, but could be a tad behind schedule. The King has been on hand to not only deliver guidance, but to listen to delegates and international supporters on the exact shape of the constitution. The vision has remained clear: To develop a modern democratic constitution that is applicable to a heterogenous multi ethnic, multi-religious society.

Half of the other debate has stemmed from Ethiopian State develop projects. Most of the projects are raking in significant sums of money and have brought significant developments. However, people within certain regions are beginning to complain. Development projects have been concentrated in certain areas. In the Ogaden, developments have been concentrated in and around Harar and Dire Dawa, but the prospect of large quantities of oil and natural gas in the basin is an economic boom to the area. Hundreds of millions have been pumped into areas south of Addis Ababa, and just east of Addis Ababa. An enormous amount of money has been funneled into the port cities of Asseb, and Masawa. With even more money going into a tight region around Asmara.

Yet, inbetween these areas, there is largely no development aside from the Finchaa dam and the Finchaa sugar project. The Gambela regions and Beneshengul Gumuz regions have largely been devoid of any projects whatsoever, whether they be civil or economic. Ironically, the people in these regions, who are incredibly poor, almost live austensibly in thatch or mud huts, are more concerned about influx of Sudanese refugees and protecting traditional grazing grounds than they are about foisting anger towards the government which they have almost no contact with.

But in interior regions of Tigrey and the Amhara states, as well is northern and western Oromia States, people are becoming upset at the lack of neglect in economic projects. These regions have benefitted from significant civic projects, such as construction of schools, investment in the highway system, and other projects, but there has not been any major economic project in these areas aside from Finchaa and the highway area. In regards to the Tigrey state and Amhara state, almost no new road construction has occured. In the interior regions there have been no economic projects.

People feel neglected. Many say that instead of enacting policies which force relocation, that the government is utilizing economic development projects to do just that. People feel that the government is using development projects in Arba Minch and Debri Zayit and Finchaa specifically to relocate people.

Some delegates have even stated that this is the case. And that the government is attempting to funnel people into the highlands region in order to centralize and integrate the economy more efficiently. In order to improve ones life, one must participate in develop projects, which for many people involves relocating over cast distances without access to improved transportation.

Government authorities continue to assert that development in some regions along the Sudan border is out of the question due to instability. However, fierce debate is now ongoing as to how to spend economic development money in fiscal year 1951. The Tekeze dam is being built in this region, but other than that, money in 1950 is all going to the southern regions.

The area in question is largely the bread basket of Ethiopia. Sure, the south is becoming a gold mine in cash crops, but the north is what feeds Ethiopia. Even though they are feeding Ethiopia, they are not seeing much of the benefits. The average wage of workers in this region is less than half of the average wage in the economic develop zones in souther Oromia state and SNNP region.

Representatives from the Tigrey and Amhara states, which have traditionally dominated the politics of Ethiopia, are demanding more attention. Ironically, it is largely members of the Amhara and Tigrey state that opened the door for investment in the south. Both for maximizing economic output, but also for invigorating and uniting people that have traditionally stood against the Amhara and Tigrey dominated governments. These economic outreach programs have no come full circle, with Trigrean and Amharan people demanding large scale economic projects in their regions.
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Representatives from Addis Ababa are currently working in Asseb and Asiyata in Afar state to talk with local Afar tribal leaders and political figures about how to handle a potentially abrupt withdrawal from Eritrea by the BMA.

Discussions regarding the infusion of French troops to administer the region are also occuring in the Afar state.

Representatives have also been despatched to the Tigrey state. National officials are talking with local officials in Asmara, Masawa, Naf'ka, and other key locations about the future of the Tigrey state, and how to handle an abrupt withdrawal.
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The Ethiopian government has continued to try and establish relations with leaders in what was formerly known as Eritrea. The situation in eastern Eritrea is good. Local Afar leaders have been accomadating to federation. National Afar leaders have been extremely instrumental in reaching out to the Afar people. There has been almost no unrest in this region. National police forces have been leaving high value assets in Asseb to ensure policing of other areas and protection of the local populace.

Events in Tigrey have been much more tense. Protests have occured in Asmara, Karen, and Naf'ka. There has been sporadic violence in Karen and Naf'ka, however a heavy military and police presence has kept a lid on the violence.

Political reconcilation efforts with ethnic minorities and independence groups have not moved far. The Ethiopian government will not be inserting itself by force into locations where indepedence groups do not want Ethiopian presence. We regret the amount of violence in this region, but feel that an insertion of Ethiopian forces will only escalate the situation. We will continue in earnest to try and achieve political reconciliation with minority groups and independence leaders, and will not move into kebele's or woreda's where political and local figures do not want us.

The government will continue to locate newly formed police and military units into Eritrea over the course of the year to keep a lid on interior regions, and prevent western unrest from spreading into other locations.
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