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Possible cold spell in mid February
Topic Started: February 6 2011, 07:54 PM (1,715 Views)
Jambo IWO
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some models now starting to tend to a return of cold from mid feb,we can but clutch at anything these days ;)

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Jambo IWO
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large pinch of salt needed ;)

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Mark (IWO)
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The GFS is the only model really indicating this setup at present. Interesting to see if others will follow suit in the next day or two.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Jambo IWO
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Mark (IWO)
February 7 2011, 01:56 AM
The GFS is the only model really indicating this setup at present. Interesting to see if others will follow suit in the next day or two.
latest runs pushing cold away again :(
looking much less likely for snow now,high is positioned a lot further north on some of the models,we await the latest charts with bated breath -c-h-i-n
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Mark (IWO)
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And so the rollercoaster begins... p-o-pc-o-rn

ECM is now indicating for the first time that colder weather will push westwards towards Ireland as a high build over the arctic and eastern Scandanavia

This image depicts upper air (1500m) temperatures
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Jambo IWO
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Gfs leaning away from cold,will all change in the next run

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Mark (IWO)
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Here is Peter's take on the latter half of the weekend into the early days of next week.


OUTLOOK ... Damp and rather cold in a developing easterly flow. Some risk that this will turn wintry but certainly not very mild (highs at this point would seem to be 4-7 C on average for several days)
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Mark (IWO)
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Latest GFS has cold weather edging its way further west towards Ireland
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The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Jambo IWO
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Way out in FI(fantasy island) but oh what a chart

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Mark (IWO)
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Only issue here is that the GFS is pushing out the extreme cold with every run. They had indicated the 15-17th Feb up to 3 days ago. At least more of the weather models are now in agreement that colder weather is likely after mid month
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Jambo IWO
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Mark (IWO)
February 8 2011, 03:18 PM
Only issue here is that the GFS is pushing out the extreme cold with every run. They had indicated the 15-17th Feb up to 3 days ago. At least more of the weather models are now in agreement that colder weather is likely after mid month
agree,but at least a trend is showing,could be an interesting time as we are sandwiched in-between colder air to the west and east 0-m-g-
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Supercell Ian
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Im still optimistic about the cold , the models are changing too often , so thats the sign that tells ya, even the models dunno what the feeek is gonna happen.
Hopefully now , we get the Greenland high building up to help us hold back the atlantic for an advance of some siberian air! :)

Until then i shall stay infront of the models all day.... all nite....... p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-o-o-l
" When the atmosphere loses its state of equilibrium , its tries to return to this state, its this process that gives us the exciting phenomena of weather today." , By , me :)
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Jambo IWO
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Supercell Ian
February 8 2011, 03:42 PM
Im still optimistic about the cold , the models are changing too often , so thats the sign that tells ya, even the models dunno what the feeek is gonna happen.
Hopefully now , we get the Greenland high building up to help us hold back the atlantic for an advance of some siberian air! :)

Until then i shall stay infront of the models all day.... all nite....... p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-o-o-l
Bit more encouragement I think in the models,so as you say we wait with baited breath for the updates -c-h-i-n
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GreystonesGal
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A Game of wait and see or hide and seek for the snow - keep the posts coming though tis extremely interesting (now where are all those smilies hiding?)
No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.
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Mark (IWO)
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hillarygray
February 8 2011, 04:10 PM
now where are all those smilies hiding?
Hi Hillary. Choose the Add Reply icon in the bottom right as opposed to the quick reply.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Patrick (IWO)
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Just looking at the ECMWF in isolation, I am not overly encouraged. The run remains on the cool side throughout but 850 temps are only slightly below normal (between 0c & -4.0c)

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Chilly at best, non-descript and totally without character at worst.

No sign of any major winter storms either. zzzzzzzz

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Jambo IWO
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The colder air is not to far away in FI but at the min looks like the UK are best positioned to see either a beasterly or a battlefront scenario over them,any one got some straw handy so i can clutch a bit more.......
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radiospu
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So am I Ian, but as you say the models aren't telling us much. [Any more than the models can really tell us about Climate Change] :)
Science does not deal in absolute proofs. The scientific method depends upon falsification of alternative hypotheses until only one remains.
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radiospu
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Cold to the east showing here - beginning to move?
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Science does not deal in absolute proofs. The scientific method depends upon falsification of alternative hypotheses until only one remains.
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Navan Man
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Yet another rollercoaster ride,I favour another cold blast from the east, which could become fairly dominant for at least 5-10 days ay time from the 20th onwards -c-h-i-n
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Del
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would be nice too see a big easterly blast,trend is our friend people h-e-h-e
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Mark (IWO)
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Latest from iWeather Online's Peter O'Donnell
SUNDAY … Damp and chilly with mixed precipitation possible on higher ground in the north, otherwise cold rain showers and highs of about 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK … A rather cold week with winds generally E to SE. Some rain at times, with the risk of sleet or snow but so far this seems mostly marginal or on highest terrain. Much colder weather will be spreading into nearby parts of Europe so this forecast is subject to change as we get closer to the time.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Jambo IWO
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A lot needs to change in our favour now for one last blast of winter -ma-d-
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Mark (IWO)
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DelW is right in what he said about trend being your friend. There is a trend for colder weather but the models are not showing up anything dramatic.

Next Monday looks like this on the ECM
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The -4-8c temps in that image relate to the upper air (1500m) temperature. It is generally regarded that uppers need to be around the -8 mark in order for snow to fall. Of course there are many factors but these uppers are a good gauge of whether weather will be cold.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Jambo IWO
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Would feel a lot better if any of the models had the low in the Atlantic further south than they do,but that's probably me being pessimistic again -c-h-i-n chart watching at it's best :)

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Supercell Ian
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Mise aint a happy camper this morning :(
" When the atmosphere loses its state of equilibrium , its tries to return to this state, its this process that gives us the exciting phenomena of weather today." , By , me :)
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Mark (IWO)
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colder next Monday on GFS. Wintry showers likely for West and north.
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Strangegravy
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Mark (IWO)
February 9 2011, 07:38 PM
colder next Monday on GFS. Wintry showers likely for West and north.
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That has -6 uppers... would that be more sleet than anything else?
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Jambo IWO
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Strangegravy
February 9 2011, 09:18 PM
Mark (IWO)
February 9 2011, 07:38 PM
colder next Monday on GFS. Wintry showers likely for West and north.
Posted Image
That has -6 uppers... would that be more sleet than anything else?
More than likely at low levels,generally snow needs -6 to -10 uppers for snow,as this is coming in from the Atlantic maritime air will be in the equation as well,possibility if heavy enough precip.
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Mark (IWO)
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IWO's Peter O'Donnell's take on weather

In the pattern developing for Ireland over the next week, there will be a lot of marginal precipitation situations so anyone in higher parts of the north especially should be expecting some snow each time there's mention of sleet or even rain. As temperatures will never drop low enough to allows for sustained periods of snow to develop, wintry precipitation may come and go during the events. Snow is also likely to show up on summits further south too.

TODAY ... Mostly dry and rather cold. Some sunny intervals. Light winds. Highs 6-8 C. Rain, with some higher elevation sleet or wet snow arriving in west late this afternoon, wintry precipitation turning to rain this evening.

TONIGHT ... Intervals of sleet or rain. Temperatures in the east near 2-3 C for part of the evening, closer to 5-6 C west, but in each case rising somewhat before morning.

FRIDAY ... Morning showers, a few sunny intervals later. Highs around 10 C. Becoming foggy in the late evening and overnight.

SATURDAY ... A frosty and in some places quite foggy start to the day. Morning lows near -1 C, then brighter intervals to follow, then sleet turning to rain late afternoon and evening ... risk of measurable snow over higher parts of Connacht and Donegal, west Ulster ... highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain ending before dawn in west, continuing for part of the day over eastern counties, slow clearing, rather chilly. Lows 2-4 C and highs around 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Showery, cold for several days next week, with winds northwest at first, turning more to east mid-week, possible wintry precipitation over higher terrain, highs only 5-7 C on average.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Mark (IWO)
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Snow risk for parts of the west next Sunday and Monday, most likely in the form of wintry showers.
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Jessie
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Mark (IWO)
February 10 2011, 06:13 PM
Snow risk for parts of the west next Sunday and Monday, most likely in the form of wintry showers.
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No snow for Kerry in that I see, ah well..... how are the charts for cold spell looking? ?
A rose must remain with the sun and the rain or its lovely promise won't come true.
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Mark (IWO)
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This very well could be the extent of any cold spell around mid February Jessie. Having said that weather models all disagree with each other on extent of any warming trend. Keep checking back here for updates.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Jessie
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Mark (IWO)
February 10 2011, 06:51 PM
This very well could be the extent of any cold spell around mid February Jessie. Having said that weather models all disagree with each other on extent of any warming trend. Keep checking back here for updates.
Will do, thanks
A rose must remain with the sun and the rain or its lovely promise won't come true.
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Jambo IWO
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Nothing to get excited about in any of the charts,we need big changes in the runs before our Beasterly gets blown away by the Atlantic......
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Mark (IWO)
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OUTLOOK for TUESDAY to THURSDAY … a rather cold and unsettled period, with winds becoming east to southeast … at the moment, it does not look cold enough for snow except perhaps on higher terrain in the north and east, but it may be a close call with highs 5-7 C and overnight lows near freezing, somewhat below in any clearing intervals. This cold spell may end with strong winds and heavy rain as milder air tries to push back in late in the week.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Supercell Ian
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Rte had snow & rain for sunday monday and tuesday! ha... why are they tryin to put our hopes up!?!...... :(
" When the atmosphere loses its state of equilibrium , its tries to return to this state, its this process that gives us the exciting phenomena of weather today." , By , me :)
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Mark (IWO)
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Latest from accuweather's Joe Bastrdi

LONDON NOT AS COLD AS LAST WINTER!

We continue to fade as London for the winter is 2.3 below normal while last year at this time it was 3.6 degree below normal. Given the extreme December cold, the reversal has been almost dramatic and driving home the point about the worst of winter being up front. I do think a return lurks in March for a time, but by that time the kind of extremes that would have caused a problem had they returned in mid winter would have been a threat that was merely a ghost.

But it is official... last winter was colder than this one.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Mark (IWO)
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Potential for wintry showers late Sunday into early monday

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Supercell Ian
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Mark (IWO)
February 11 2011, 05:46 PM
Latest from accuweather's Joe Bastrdi

LONDON NOT AS COLD AS LAST WINTER!

We continue to fade as London for the winter is 2.3 below normal while last year at this time it was 3.6 degree below normal. Given the extreme December cold, the reversal has been almost dramatic and driving home the point about the worst of winter being up front. I do think a return lurks in March for a time, but by that time the kind of extremes that would have caused a problem had they returned in mid winter would have been a threat that was merely a ghost.

But it is official... last winter was colder than this one.
Was just about to post that Mark! ha
" When the atmosphere loses its state of equilibrium , its tries to return to this state, its this process that gives us the exciting phenomena of weather today." , By , me :)
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