| Long Range Weather Discussion | |
|---|---|
| Tweet Topic Started: February 12 2011, 12:38 PM (3,850 Views) | |
| Mark (IWO) | February 12 2011, 12:38 PM Post #1 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Latest from Peter TODAY … After some fog and local frost dissipate, there should be widespread sunny intervals. Mostly dry although very isolated brief showers in the west this morning. Rather cold but winds not very strong, so it may feel quite pleasant by midday … highs 7-9 C. (Rain reaching the west coast around 3 p.m. to sunset). TONIGHT … Periods of rain, possibly mixed with snow or sleet over some higher northern terrain. Becoming foggy with clearing overhead towards morning (but thick fog possible in many areas). Lows falling to about 2-4 C after temperatures stay in the 5-7 C range during the rain. Amounts 5-10 mms with local 15 mms possible. SUNDAY … Variable cloud. Mixed wintry showers possible in Connacht, some accumulations of snow on higher ground by evening. Longer dry intervals in south and east but still some risk of a shower … highs 6-8 C. MONDAY … Cloudy with a few brighter intervals. Showery with some chance of mixed precip again, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. TUESDAY … Cloudy, showers or periods of light rain, chance of sleet or snow on higher ground. Lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C. WEDNESDAY … Cloudy, cold, rain or wet snow in easterly winds 15-30 mph, lows near 2 C and highs 4-7 C. THURSDAY … Cloudy, rain at times. Strong winds possible by evening as milder air returns, highs near 10 C. OUTLOOK … The models suggest that cold air next week unsuccessfully attempt to replace the milder Atlantic air. This solution is not yet certain and we’ll have to see if the colder air can put up more of a fight (or if it fizzles even more than this forecast suggests). |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 12 2011, 02:26 PM Post #2 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Looking potentially stormy next weekend on the GFS![]() UKMO agrees ECM not in agreement however |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Jambo IWO | February 12 2011, 06:55 PM Post #3 |
|
king
![]()
|
Baa humbug,a lot needs to change now for any snow to fall this month,wont be long before we are looking for barbecue weather
|
|
i eat weather forecaster's for breakfast.... please donate revup4dsi | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 12 2011, 08:11 PM Post #4 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Low pressure system pushing north towards greenland 935hpa!
|
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| GreystonesGal | February 12 2011, 08:14 PM Post #5 |
|
IceQueen
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
pull it back over this way - ........................ |
|
No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible. Voltaire | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 12 2011, 08:17 PM Post #6 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
This is how far the eastern cold front gets next week, according to the GFS. The temps shown are upper air temps (1500m or so)![]() The ECM meanwhile has pressure building up over scandanavia and greenland by next weekend This is the first time since Christmas that the ECM has indicated a potential easterly outbreak in two successive runs. Will keep you informed. Keep in mind that 'trend is your friend' with models. Furthermore, anything past 4-5days is categorised as 'low confidence' territory. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 13 2011, 12:03 PM Post #7 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
FROM PETER TODAY ... Morning fog and isolated frost gradually clearing to some brighter intervals. Sunshine mainly confined to the south and east, as more showers, some of these wintry, move gradually into western counties. By afternoon there may be some sleet or snow in higher parts of Donegal, Connacht and Kerry. Elsewhere the showers could be hail as well as rain, with some thunder likely. Highs 6-9 C. TONIGHT ... Continued unsettled with wintry showers in higher elevations, some accumulations of snow possible there. Lows -1 to +3 C. MONDAY ... Variable cloud, chilly with wintry showers, some hail and snow but rain for most at lower elevations. Highs only 5-8 C. TUESDAY ... More overnight sleet or wet snow possible, then chilly with rain or sleet at times, turning slightly milder in the south, lows 2-4 C and highs about 6-8 C north to 8-10 C south. Foggy at times with brisk southeast winds developing south coast. WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, cool, rain may turn back to sleet in the north. Some further snow possible on higher ground. Winds backing SE to E 15-30 mph, lows near 2 C and highs near 6 C. THURSDAY ... Possible snow as even colder air tries to push further west, so chances for snow greater in east and north as somewhat milder air holds on rather feebly in south and west. Highs will range from 5 C to 9 C. Raw cold easterly winds, except in southwest. FRIDAY ... A sharper frontal zone may develop, bringing rain to the south and west, sleet or snow to some parts of the north and east. Winds generally easterly there at 15-30 mph. OUTLOOK ... Since the trend on the models is slightly in favour of the strength of the cold air (which really digs into Scandinavia during the week), confidence is low regarding rapid warming trends even if they show up on most models. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 13 2011, 12:08 PM Post #8 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
This is the furthest west that the GFS brings the cold air from the east![]() The ECM is in agreement i.e. Cold front gets pushes back by milder atlantic air. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 13 2011, 03:24 PM Post #9 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Little change to GFS output in latest run |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Jambo IWO | February 13 2011, 04:16 PM Post #10 |
|
king
![]()
|
little change is right,the Atlantic is going to win the day imo,high pressure over Scandinavia looks like weakening at the critical time,hence no beasterly coming near enough to us
|
|
i eat weather forecaster's for breakfast.... please donate revup4dsi | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 13 2011, 08:01 PM Post #11 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Little change again in latest GFS run. Colder uppers are struggling to reach Ireland.
|
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Jambo IWO | February 14 2011, 11:12 AM Post #12 |
|
king
![]()
|
Slight upgrades in the over night run,showing the colder air getting a small bit nearer(around the 20th)suggesting that the Atlantic will still win but signs of a battle being formed between the warm and cold air -c-h-i-n ,not posting charts as latest run coming out shortly,encouraging lets see what happens shortly. |
|
i eat weather forecaster's for breakfast.... please donate revup4dsi | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 14 2011, 11:20 AM Post #13 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Yep Jambo. Certainly an upgrade for those who like cold weather. Peter's latest forecast below TODAY ... Outbreaks of sleet or snow in Connacht and parts of Ulster, mixing with rain at lower elevations. Some snow accumulations on hills (2-5 cms) and highs only 4-6 C. Generally more settled in Munster and Leinster with some sunny intervals, although some scattered showers of rain or hail possible by mid-day and afternoon. Highs 6-8 C. TONIGHT ... Some clearing and quite cold, any residual showers may be wintry, but most places dry ... lows -3 to +2 C. TUESDAY ... Rain and fog moving into the south around dawn and then further north, where it may begin as sleet or wet snow on higher ground late morning to mid-afternoon. Winds strengthening over the south to 15-30 mph from the southeast, and highs 7-9 C south, 4-7 C north. WEDNESDAY ... After a cold and in some places frosty night, expect mixed wintry showers or sleet, cold rain in east to southeast winds of 15-25 mph and a temperature range from about -1 C for the minimum to +5 C maximum. THURSDAY ... Continuing cloudy and cold with some outbreaks of sleet or even snow in the north and east, somewhat milder with partly cloudy skies likely further south and west (a front is probably going to set up somewhere through Ireland from northwest to southeast) ... highs 3-5 C north and east, to 6-8 C south, west. FRIDAY ... Some rain possible southwest, but at this point it looks as though colder air may make further westward advances on Friday bringing cold east winds and highs only 3-6 C with morning frost. OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather cold for several more days (prospects for milder air slowly moving in are still in the mix but the trend seems to be downgrading that). Snow not entirely ruled out either, as frontal waves may strengthen closer to the time. MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday 13th was a mostly cloudy day with just a few brief showers. Highs 7-8 C. NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The main feature at present is a developing low over the Great Lakes heading for Nova Scotia tomorrow. This is bringing in some slightly milder air (much warmer in the central and southern plains, but this will stay put until mid-week). Some light snow will fall north of this low's track in parts of Ontario and later northern New England. A stronger surge of mild air arriving Thursday will follow for eastern regions, after a cold outbreak behind this low. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Flan_da_man--Cork | February 14 2011, 10:20 PM Post #14 |
Calm
![]() ![]() ![]()
|
from looking at the models.....they havent a clue whats coming really. any scenario is possible. i feel its gonna be a nice battleground for the next few days nice few hail/sleet/wet snow showers in cork today. temps much lower then people expected (6-8c expected) ended up being 3 or 4c much of the day. tonight and the next couple of days very interesting
|
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 15 2011, 12:00 AM Post #15 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Rain can be expected in the coastal southwest after midnight, and as this moves further inland and encounters sub-freezing conditions in some inland counties, there is a low to moderate risk of heavy wet snow developing before dawn and persisting into the morning hours. This will be hit or miss across south-central Ireland and later into central and north-central regions. It would be more likely outside urban areas and on higher terrain. However, conditions do appear marginal for snow to develop across a large part of Ireland tomorrow morning. It will turn to sleet and then a cold rain as the day progresses, and there will be considerable fog especially on higher terrain. Temperatures will be rather slow to rise and may remain in the 2-3 C range for quite some time if not the entire day in parts of the north, but will rise a bit more readily to the 5-7 C range further south. WEDNESDAY … After a cold and in some places frosty night, expect mixed wintry showers or sleet/cold rain in east to southeast winds of 15-25 mph. Temperatures ranging from about -1 C overnight to daytime highs of +5 C. THURSDAY … Continuing cloudy and cold with some outbreaks of sleet or even snow in the north and east. Somewhat milder with partly cloudy skies likely further south and west (a front is probably going to set up somewhere through Ireland from northwest to southeast) . Highs 3-5 C north and east, to 6-8 C south, west. FRIDAY … Some rain likely in the southwest, but at this point it looks as though colder air may make further westward advances on Friday bringing cold east winds and highs only 3-6 C with morning frost. http://www.irishweatheronline.com/forecast/weather-alert-wintry-conditions.html |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Jambo IWO | February 15 2011, 10:41 AM Post #16 |
|
king
![]()
|
lets hope the updates coming out shortly will show an upgrade as there is nothing showing cold air remotely near us..... |
|
i eat weather forecaster's for breakfast.... please donate revup4dsi | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 15 2011, 11:09 AM Post #17 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain in the south, possibly mixing with sleet on higher ground. Variable cloud with isolated hail showers further north. Chilly, winds SE 15-30 mph. Highs 7-9 C south and 4-6 C north. THURSDAY ... Cloudy and cool. Foggy at times, mist or light rain, still the chance of sleet or snow in the north. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. FRIDAY ... Variable cloud and a bit milder. Southerly winds. Lows near -1 C and highs near 9 C. WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... cloudy, some rain at times, mild and rather windy from the south to southwest. The chances of a significant cold outbreak are now on the decline (models continued to flip-flop, but seem to be locked onto a milder solution now) ... highs 10-12 C. FROM PETER |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 16 2011, 12:12 PM Post #18 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Looks as if the Atlantic will firmly reiestablish itself as the week wears on. Outlook is for bands of rain to sweep up over Ireland from the SW. There will be the odd dry day or two in between. Typical Spring weather one might say. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 17 2011, 11:06 AM Post #19 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
OUTLOOK … Spring-like warmth gradually setting in for a few days, and it could be quite nice once the cloud finally starts to break mid-week to about the first or second of March … highs could top 14 C away from the cooler south and west coasts. Nights will be clear and a bit chilly with fog patches. This spell looks likely to transform into a period of clear, cooler but not that cold weather under strong high pressure. The eventual end of it all may be a strong northerly. If that happens around March 4-6 remember that this is a storm window of opportunity.![]() Northerly Winds developing in late February. Map Meteociel |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 18 2011, 02:52 PM Post #20 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
![]()
|
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 18 2011, 06:38 PM Post #21 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Tentative signals from medium-long range weather model output that a blast of easterly cold could be heading our way around the end of month/start of March |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Jambo IWO | February 18 2011, 10:43 PM Post #22 |
|
king
![]()
|
Admire your optimism.......... |
|
i eat weather forecaster's for breakfast.... please donate revup4dsi | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 19 2011, 02:55 PM Post #23 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
tug of war between atlantic and east come turn of the month |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| jen | February 20 2011, 12:35 PM Post #24 |
Calm
![]() ![]() ![]()
|
anyone any idea about the weather for 2nd april really big day for us need good weather
|
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 20 2011, 02:58 PM Post #25 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Not a notion Jen to be honest, sry TUESDAY … Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, winds returning to a south to southwest direction possibly veering to WNW and quite mild with lows generally 3-6 C and highs 10-13 C. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY … Unsettled across the north and northwest with showers, gusty winds (SW 30-45 mph) but partly cloudy, not as windy in the south and east, highs generally 10-13 C. OUTLOOK … Rather breezy and unsettled on Friday 25th, with another interval of more settled weather for the south around the weekend and into the early part of March before a gradual turn to colder and showery weather in a northwest to north wind. High pressure builds over Ireland. Image by Meteociel ![]() |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Audi-Tek | February 21 2011, 08:03 PM Post #26 |
|
Prince
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
.Wouldnt this be nice, if the chart didnt change between now and the 9th of March. |
| Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ? | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 22 2011, 12:22 AM Post #27 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Cold air pushing SW over Ireland in early March![]() Atlantic re-restablishes itself ![]() Before a plunge of cold air from the north ![]() Will keep an eye on this |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| radiospu | February 22 2011, 01:49 PM Post #28 |
Str breeze
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
Bracknell chart shows cold westerly for Saturday? |
| Science does not deal in absolute proofs. The scientific method depends upon falsification of alternative hypotheses until only one remains. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 22 2011, 02:50 PM Post #29 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
The below animation features upper air temperatures (temps at 1500m) for western Europe over the next 10 days. Colder weather is likely at times between today and next Monday before even colder weather is established from the north/northwest. This pattern is likely to bring wintry showers to much of the north and west of Ireland in particular at various intervals during the next two weeks. Note: Long range weather models are subject to change. Further updates will be issued in the coming days.
|
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 24 2011, 11:36 AM Post #30 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
FROM PETER SATURDAY … Partly cloudy, showers mostly confined to northern counties at first, then intervals of rain sweeping across the south, some sleet or snow on high summits, breezy, winds WSW 20-40 mph, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C. SUNDAY … Partly cloudy, a few showers across the far north, otherwise dry, cool, lows 2-4 C with scattered light frost, highs 8-9 C. OUTLOOK … The week is likely to start out dry and rather cool at least overnight due to clear skies, but a large temperature range may develop, with lows near -1 C to highs near 10 C or higher. This pattern may eventually transform into a cooler north to northeast flow with below normal temperatures. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 24 2011, 01:07 PM Post #31 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Looking like the first week of March will turn much colder. the below are upper air(1500m) temperatures. Temperatures will take a dip this weekend before recovering somewhat for the first half of next week. Colder weather will return after midweek. Sharp to severe frosts are likely so gardeners should take heed. ![]() ![]() |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 24 2011, 10:19 PM Post #32 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
Cold weather on March 4th. Snow showers a distinct possibility along E/Se coast![]() |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 25 2011, 02:11 PM Post #33 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
|
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 26 2011, 11:42 AM Post #34 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
High pressure will build early next week keeping our weather settled but leading to a return to overnight frosts |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Audi-Tek | February 26 2011, 07:39 PM Post #35 |
|
Prince
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
So no snow for us also. ![]()
Edited by Audi-Tek, February 26 2011, 07:42 PM.
|
| Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ? | |
![]() |
|
| lostinashford | February 26 2011, 08:53 PM Post #36 |
|
Light breeze
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
Still have hope of more snow, but fading fast
|
|
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get. Mark Twain | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 27 2011, 05:17 PM Post #37 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
850hpa/upper air (1500m) temperature charts for the period 25 Feb to 15 Mar 2011. Data provided by wetter3.de via Irish Weather Online. The animation shows high pressure over Ireland and the UK for the next 7-10 days. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 28 2011, 12:49 PM Post #38 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
BBC MONTHLY OUTLOOK Summary Generally changeable weather on the horizon High pressure looks set to dominate during the first part of March and is set to make a return by the end of the month, bringing plenty of dry and settled weather. Atlantic weather systems are likely to move across all parts of the UK during the month, with the wettest of the weather in the north. Monday 28 February 2011 to Sunday 6 March 2011 Mainly dry, but rather cloudy for many High pressure will build across the UK during this week, keeping conditions mostly dry. West or southwesterly winds will continue to feed into Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing relatively mild conditions. However, northeasterly winds will begin to set in, especially across southern England. Conditions will feel cold here as the breeze drags continental air towards our shores. There may also be a few light showers, possibly wintry in nature over high ground, although accumulations are not expected. Where skies clear overnight, some frost and fog patches will form. Monday 7 March 2011 to Sunday 13 March 2011 High pressure does its best to hang on High pressure will do its best to remain in charge of the United Kingdom's weather this week. Many areas will be generally dry, with a mixture of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Any clear spells overnight will continue to bring the risk of frost and fog. Towards the end of this week, more unsettled conditions are likely to affect the northwest of the UK, with spells of rain moving in. Many areas will be starting off rather cool for the second week of March, but it should become a little milder towards the northwest. Monday 14 March 2011 to Sunday 27 March 2011 Rather unsettled at first, but turning quieter... Periods of rain are likely to affect much of the UK at first, leading to quite a wet spell at the beginning of the week. Some rain is likely further south, however there will also be some brighter interludes. As we move towards the end of the month, high pressure looks set to build once more, allowing conditions to dry up. There should also be plenty of sunshine, with temperatures around the seasonal average. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | February 28 2011, 02:52 PM Post #39 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
The below animation of 850hpa (upperair/1500m temperatures) for the period 28 February to 16 March 2011. The pattern suggests that high pressure will remain in place over Ireland and the UK for the next 7 days before tracking west allowing cooler and more unsettled weather to become established. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| Mark (IWO) | March 1 2011, 12:10 PM Post #40 |
|
Admin
![]()
|
THURSDAY-FRIDAY … Mostly sunny and a bit milder in most places, although more cloud across the west and north at times, mostly dry with slight chance of drizzle west and north … lows staying in the -3 to +2 C range and highs around 10-13 C. Light southerly winds. WEEKEND OUTLOOK … Little change, dry and large daily temperature ranges from frosty nights to rather mild days (-3 to +12 C on average). Winds should remain light. FURTHER OUTLOOK … The high now looks set to elongate and split but with a broad east-west ridge staying generally near Ireland, possibly sinking a little to the south which will allow cloudier weather to return gradually the following week. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
![]() |
|
| 1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous) | |
| Go to Next Page | |
| « Previous Topic · Irish Weather Forecast & Discussion · Next Topic » |









![]](http://z4.ifrm.com/static/1/pip_r.png)


lets see what happens shortly.



.


sat262breckis222.jpg (173.56 KB)




8:17 PM Jul 11